Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[ModlrMike]

Wildest thing I read today was Ret. General Rick Hillier endorsing Christy Clark on Twitter for liberal leader.....like what a weird time line

Machiavelli enters the chat?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Machiavelli enters the chat?

As good as a boss as he's reported to have been, I can't see Hillier being really happy following any party leader of any team jersey colour.

Meanwhile, let the analysis/sorta post-mortem begin ...

ANALYSIS: Justin Trudeau, who thrived as an underdog, loses the fight - National | Globalnews.ca

The long-serving prime minister leaves behind a mixed legacy of political achievement and scandals after announcing his resignation.

globalnews.ca

Susan Delacourt: There was a public side to Justin Trudeau we all knew. But there was a side of the prime minister few of us saw

Back in 2014, delivering his first speech as leader to a Liberal convention, Trudeau said of the Conservatives: “For some reason, I drive them a bit nuts.”

www.thestar.com

Archived link to Star column here if previous link doesn't work for you.

 

[Halifax Tar]

As good as a boss as he's reported to have been, I can't see Hillier being really happy following any party leader of any team jersey colour.

I always thought he was a Liberal while he was in uniform, I don't know why; I just thought so.

 

[YZT580]

I suspect that the plan to prorogue until March 24 is as much about hurting the future government's relations with America, as it is about finding a new LPC leader. I suspect he'll continue to say things to anger Trump supporters, just to keep the temperature up on that front so PP has to be seen as "weak" when dealing with an annoyed America.

it also gives them the ability to stretch it out until October. Singh won't pull the plug whilst the party is choosing a new leader if he stays with tradition. 90 days brings us to the middle of April. Now does the Liberal constitution say that they have to complete the process or simply have it in place? If it is the later, the vote wouldn't be until june or july at which time parliament rises for the summer. Voila, the next election is in October

As good as a boss as he's reported to have been, I can't see Hillier being really happy following any party leader of any team jersey colour.

Meanwhile, let the analysis/sorta post-mortem begin ...

ANALYSIS: Justin Trudeau, who thrived as an underdog, loses the fight - National | Globalnews.ca

The long-serving prime minister leaves behind a mixed legacy of political achievement and scandals after announcing his resignation.

globalnews.ca

Susan Delacourt: There was a public side to Justin Trudeau we all knew. But there was a side of the prime minister few of us saw

Back in 2014, delivering his first speech as leader to a Liberal convention, Trudeau said of the Conservatives: “For some reason, I drive them a bit nuts.”

www.thestar.com

Archived link to Star column here if previous link doesn't work for you.

 

[MilEME09]

I always thought he was a Liberal while he was in uniform, I don't know why; I just thought so.

Both him and Mark Norman have suddenly become very active on social media, and political. maybe they are planning to enter politics?

 

[ballz]

The record for the shortest tenure as Prime Minister was by Sir Charles Tupper at 68 days in 1896. An election is likely to take about 42 days. So if the opposition is able to force an election as soon as parliament resumes, we could potentially see that record being broken. At the very least they could have a shorter term then John Turner at 79 days and will almost certainly have a shorter time than Kim Campbell at 132 days.

I'm not sure when they get elected as the new Liberal leader, they become the Prime Minister. The GG needs to be satisfied that they have the confidence of the House of Commons before swearing them in as Prime Minister - I'm not sure how that is formally done. I believe it's usually that's done by the House of Commons accepting the Speech from the Throne. If they don't accept the Speech from the Throne, then the GG would call an election and said person would never have been sworn in?

If memory serves me correctly, that's why PM Harper prorogued Parliament when the Opposition parties were trying to create a coalition government - it delayed the Speech from the Throne from happening where the Opposition parties would have not accepted the Speech and proposed a new alternative to the GG. By proroguing Parliament he was able to buy himself enough time to get enough support from the House to continue.

Hopefully someone with better knowledge of this can clarify.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Wildest thing I read today was Ret. General Rick Hillier endorsing Christy Clark on Twitter for liberal leader.....like what a weird time line

That's a good example of true colours revealed in a crisis, and not in a good way IMHO



There's a reason historians caution against assessing political leaders right after they depart the scene: it's hard to fairly judge decisions and performance without some distance.

But it seems unlikely that time will smooth over the large divide between Clark's fans and her detractors.

Some saw a dynamo of a politician who led British Columbia through five balanced budgets and the strongest top-line economic growth in the country, a female trailblazer who had a relentless work ethic and inspired tremendous loyalty in those around her, a premier who never stopped believing what B.C. could accomplish.

Others saw a career politician with ruthless ambition, one who would say — and do — anything to get elected, prioritizing politics over policy every step of the way, an ethically-challenged leader who showed a lack of sympathy for the province's most vulnerable and had no guiding compass for the province beyond jobs.

Clark's particular way with messaging makes it hard for people to hold a moderate view of her.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/christy-clark-legacy-1.4227485

 

[Czech_pivo]

Watching on YT - here's some links for anyone trying, raw feeds without commentary ....

... and with commentary during the waiting

Those papers flying away just before he spoke represented the members of this own caucus flying the sinking ship. I think it perfectly represented his final 5-6yrs in office.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I think, if I were the Liberal Party, I would have wanted him to just call an election.

No one who is capable of righting the ship is going to run for Leader of the party right now. They are going to take a licking in the election and have basically zero chance of not being replaced within the first 4 years. If Canadians are fed up with CPC by then, whoever wins the next leadership race for the LPC will not be there to replace him.

Proroguing and running a leadership race seems like terrible politics and it's also terrible for Canada right now....

The prorogation is going to hurt the LPC regardless of who takes the helm. It will be viewed as a trick by Trudeau to dance one more Waltz while everyone else is stuck in this Purgatory between now and an election.

Better to have closed the books and walk away and show at least a shred of honour in his departure.

The record for the shortest tenure as Prime Minister was by Sir Charles Tupper at 68 days in 1896. An election is likely to take about 42 days. So if the opposition is able to force an election as soon as parliament resumes, we could potentially see that record being broken. At the very least they could have a shorter term then John Turner at 79 days and will almost certainly have a shorter time than Kim Campbell at 132 days.

When.

Parliament is not recessed until 24 Mar 25, it's prorogued. It is dead. It ceases to be.

It will be a brand spanking new session. One of the first orders of business will be appropriation bills that are mandatory confidence votes. I see the Opposition pulling the trigger as soon as one of those votes comes up in the House.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Prorogue until 24 March ....

Brutal

 

[jackamela]

Well, to my mind it's long overdue. Thoughts?

 

[Quirky]

Those papers flying away just before he spoke represented the members of this own caucus flying the sinking ship.

The ship is sinking and Trudeau just took all the lifeboats to go look for help.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I suspect that the plan to prorogue until March 24 is as much about hurting the future government's relations with America, as it is about finding a new LPC leader. I suspect he'll continue to say things to anger Trump supporters, just to keep the temperature up on that front so PP has to be seen as "weak" when dealing with an annoyed America.

So we have in essence a quasi-Dictatorship for the 2.5 months before Parliament sits again, until a time when traditionally the Budget is presented and voted on. Will a Budget be presented during the last week of March or the first week of April. Easter falls on the 20th April this year, which means in the past, Parliament would break on the Friday that falls before Good Friday, meaning, 11 April. So, sometime before 27 March and 11 April, a budget should be presented and I would assume it would pass - unless the NDP entire caucus or, if not, a significant portion of the Liberal Party, votes against it (assuming the the BQ would join the Conservatives is voting against it).

So 10 days of Parliament sitting between 27 March and 11 April to decide our fate for the next 5yrs - IF, and only if the government falls then. Otherwise it might well be Oct/25, some 10 months from now and that would mean 10 full months of a lame duck current PM and a lame duck new PM dealing with Trump.

Rock, hard place - Canada.

 

[QV]

I expect that whatever Trudeau decided or decides will be the absolute worst option for Canada.

 

[Furniture]

So we have in essence a quasi-Dictatorship for the 2.5 months before Parliament sits again, until a time when traditionally the Budget is presented and voted on. Will a Budget be presented during the last week of March or the first week of April. Easter falls on the 20th April this year, which means in the past, Parliament would break on the Friday that falls before Good Friday, meaning, 11 April. So, sometime before 27 March and 11 April, a budget should be presented and I would assume it would pass - unless the NDP entire caucus or, if not, a significant portion of the Liberal Party, votes against it (assuming the the BQ would join the Conservatives is voting against it).

So 10 days of Parliament sitting between 27 March and 11 April to decide our fate for the next 5yrs - IF, and only if the government falls then. Otherwise it might well be Oct/25, some 10 months from now and that would mean 10 full months of a lame duck current PM and a lame duck new PM dealing with Trump.

Rock, hard place - Canada.

All to appease the selfish ego of one man, that was elected based on his last name...

 

[brihard]

Jagmeet Singh has released a statement on the resignation. He says the LPC “do not deserve another chance, regardless of who is the leader”, but doesn’t explicitly say anything about ‘what’s next’.

Singh statement on the resignation of Trudeau

TORONTO—Leader of Canada’s NDP Jagmeet Singh issued the following statement in response to Justin Trudeau’s resignation:

www.ndp.ca

The math still hasn’t fundamentally changed and NDP are the kingmakers. I still think it’s a real possibility he will consider propping up the government post March 24th, but at a steeper price in terms of policy concessions and regulatory progress don pharmacare and dental care. NDP are still dead in the water if CPC win a majority, and both NDP and LPC have a shared interest in trying to keep them to a minority, however unlikely that is. But it’s at its least-likeliest right now and in the short term.

Trudeau has stepped down but we still have very little idea how this will play out in the mid term.

 

[QV]

I sure hope there is a legal challenge to this prorogation, parliament resumes, and a non-confidence vote occurs, with election asap. The country cannot be shut down because the LPC are inconvenienced of their own making.

 

[ModlrMike]

I don't know if the NDP can afford the backlash. They run the real risk of serving up their heads on silver platters to both the BQ and CPC. I think they're forced into not supporting the Liberals any further at this point.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

The math still hasn’t fundamentally changed and NDP are the kingmakers. I still think it’s a real possibility he will consider propping up the government post March 24th, but at a steeper price in terms of policy concessions and regulatory progress don pharmacare and dental care. NDP are still dead in the water if CPC win a majority, and both NDP and LPC have a shared interest in trying to keep them to a minority, however unlikely that is. But it’s at its least-likeliest right now and in the short term.

If he supports this government any longer, get ready for Caucus Revolt 2: Electric Boogaloo to happen.

He's hanging on by a thread within his own party, so I can see him moving the ball forward with the rest of the Opposition Parties.

 

[MilEME09]

I sure hope there is a legal challenge to this prorogation, parliament resumes, and a non-confidence vote occurs, with election asap. The country cannot be shut down because the LPC are inconvenienced of their own making.

on what grounds? it is within his prerogative to seek it from the GG, who granted it, the precedence for this was set in 2008 when Harper prorogued to avoid a confidence motion as well.