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Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

Frankly I think Mr Ibbitson is wrong about an imminent election, but not for anything he said in this piece. The reality is that only the Conservatives are ready for a fall election. Neither the NDP nor the Bloc are going to side with the Conservatives to scuttle the government any time soon.
I wonder if they might be willing to take the risk anyway. If you know you're fighting for second in the election you can afford to go in with less spending.

If either is seen as propping up an increasingly unpopular LPC, it could hurt their brand and lead more people to vote ABL(and the lackies)...
 
It would be interesting to see what kind of stance the Bloc would take if they became the Loyal Opposition, so long as they couldn't force the government into action. How much would a regional, possibly separatist, party stand up for the rest of the country. Especially if the decision affected their province.
The Bloc have been in that position before from 1993 -1997, facing off against a Liberal government.
 
Is Ottawa South just as safe? The MP is Dalton McGuinty's brother, so it can't be that up for grabs.
Tough to say. Ottawa South is absorbing a significant new subdivision due to redistricting. A large and growing part of the Carleton riding (Poilievre’s riding) will become part of Ottawa South. Not sure how that will affect the dynamic, though my gut feel is a newish low density suburb in Ottawa likely isn’t too far either left or right.
 
Tough to say. Ottawa South is absorbing a significant new subdivision due to redistricting. A large and growing part of the Carleton riding (Poilievre’s riding) will become part of Ottawa South. Not sure how that will affect the dynamic, though my gut feel is a newish low density suburb in Ottawa likely isn’t too far either left or right.
Ottawa suburbs want high density services with low density taxation...
 
Frankly I think Mr Ibbitson is wrong about an imminent election, but not for anything he said in this piece. The reality is that only the Conservatives are ready for a fall election. Neither the NDP nor the Bloc are going to side with the Conservatives to scuttle the government any time soon.

No, but if the Liberals have any honour within him (lol), then considering both the polling and these two by-elections, it's clear that the government has lost the confidence of the house, and they should dissolve parliament.

The LPC dont really have a reason to dissolve Gov, and if they fall they can blame it on the opposition parties. JT seems himself as a a holy knight holding off the dirty conservative hoards at the castle walls, so any moment in Gov is a win for him. You have to think like a narcissist with a messianic complex to understand him.

Also holding off until next fall continues to provide the CPC with ample sea room and time to blunder and implode, as they have been known to do.
 
Lawrence Martin is one of those pundits for whom the very name Trudeau is sacred. When he says the Justin Trudeau is past his best before date it means that the ships is really ready to keel over and go under. From today's Globe and Mail:

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The Liberals would do better if they replace their dead man walking​

Lawrence Martin
LAWRENCE MARTIN PUBLIC AFFAIRS COLUMNIST
SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED 1 HOUR AGO

The past isn’t always prologue.

There’s a widespread view that it wouldn’t be beneficial for the Liberals to change leaders at this time; that a new leader would do just as badly, if not worse, in an election than Justin Trudeau; that Liberal Party members are therefore not acting like cowards in not forcing him out.

Look at the precedents, contend those who subscribe to this line of thinking. John Turner succeeded the highly unpopular Pierre Trudeau in 1984 shortly before an election had to be called, and a debacle ensued; the Liberals were reduced to 40 seats. Kim Campbell became Conservative leader in 1993 replacing the much-loathed Brian Mulroney at the end of his second mandate, and an even worse shellacking followed: the Tories were obliterated, winning only two ridings.

But a couple considerations should not be overlooked. The change of leadership in each case did initially provide a major boost in popularity for the parties – so pleased were people to be rid of the incumbents. So much so that Mr. Turner and Ms. Campbell drew even or better with their opponents at some point after their ascension.

The surge, in each case, was short-lived. But small wonder. The campaigns run by Mr. Turner and Ms. Campbell were atrocious, ranking among the most incompetent in Canadian history.

Had they run creditable, strong campaigns, victories still would have been unlikely. But they could have left their parties in far better shape.

No new Liberal leader could be expected to repeat those follies. Odds are that this leader would do considerably better than the Liberals’ dead man walking, who is currently at the helm. The people are more angry at Mr. Trudeau than they are at the party itself. Remove him, and a lot of the animosity exits with him. It will no longer be the Trudeau Party.

A leadership change wouldn’t be like the Democrats’ switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. Mr. Biden was not far behind Donald Trump, nowhere near the distance that separates the Liberals from the Conservatives. But if a new Liberal leader was to perform well like Ms. Harris, a Conservative majority would not be guaranteed.

The country’s economy – inflation has just cooled to two per cent – is not down in the dumps the way it was in 1984 and 1993. The Conservatives have built a huge lead in the polls. But that has more to do with the time-for-a-change drum beating across the land than any great admiration for the party’s nerdy leader, Pierre Poilievre.

The Liberal brand is hurting, but it is not, should Mr. Trudeau leave, under the threat it was in 2011, when the New Democrats took over from the Liberals to become the Official Opposition. That was chiefly owing to the NDP’s dramatic breakthrough in Quebec where they won 59 seats. But its base in the province, owing to the party’s senseless removal of Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair as leader in 2017, is gone, and with it, the chance of ever forming a government.

The Liberals have to turn the page. Senator Percy Downe says it is now too late to make a leadership change because an election could come at any time, and because leadership rules for the Liberals are loose, open to abuse, and need be changed. These are important considerations, but they shouldn’t stop party members from withdrawing their support for Mr. Trudeau and forcing a leadership convention to begin 2025.

Among the potential leadership contenders are three women, Chrystia Freeland, Anita Anand and Mélanie Joly. There is a huge gender gap in this country that shows the Liberals not far behind the Conservatives among women voters. One of the three Liberal women could take advantage of this dynamic.

And of course there’s former bank governor Mark Carney, whose economic expertise and global experience far exceeds that of Mr. Poilievre. The idea that he is not tough enough for politics is nonsense. When he was governor of the Bank of England, he was in the cauldron, subject to intense pressures, media and political attacks.

Mr. Trudeau opened the door for him recently, when he appointed him as the chair of a task force on economic growth. In accepting the position, Mr. Carney showed he is prepared to enter the fray despite the party’s long odds of doing well.

It doesn’t mean he will run in the next election under the Trudeau banner. It means he senses there could be a leadership race. The will of the people has been made clear to Mr. Trudeau: there should be one. The party cannot let him continue to defy it.

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Another one abandons ship ....
 

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I disagree with Martin. The Liberal Party permitted Trudeau et al to dismember the LPC to a cult. The members have proven they are bobblehead trained seals as evidenced at press conferences, Parliamentary Committee Hearings, Question Period, etc.
In general, they acted cowardly, without any discernable ethos. They did not serve Canada, only Trudeau's whims.
Through the bums out.
 
I disagree with Martin. The Liberal Party permitted Trudeau et al to dismember the LPC to a cult. The members have proven they are bobblehead trained seals as evidenced at press conferences, Parliamentary Committee Hearings, Question Period, etc.
In general, they acted cowardly, without any discernable ethos. They did not serve Canada, only Trudeau's whims.
Through the bums out.
My opinion, worth exactly what you're paying for it, is that the Trudeau cult began circa 1967 when the Liberal Party decided to dump fiery and slightly left leaning but pro-Canadian Québécois labour leader Jean Marchand and, instead, put their electoral fatten the hands of wealthy, anti-liberal, an ti-Western, silk stocking socialist Pierre Trudeau.

They may even have fabricated most of 'Trudeaumania;' it was reported that at least one of those early famous images was staged using office workers from Liberal Party HQ.
 

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^^
I pity the fools who get all ga ga over a god damn politician. I did that once in my youth and I've been ashamed of that moment ever since.
I want a pragmatic and boring leader. I agree that cabinet members have to show a united front, but they also should be able to admit mistakes. What I really want is Backbench MP's who are willing to Red Team their leader and cabinet in public to ensure we get the best out of our government. Not a bunch of honking trained seals who'll sell out their constituents for the good of the leader and party.
 
^^
I pity the fools who get all ga ga over a god damn politician. I did that once in my youth and I've been ashamed of that moment ever since.
I want a pragmatic and boring leader. I agree that cabinet members have to show a united front, but they also should be able to admit mistakes. What I really want is Backbench MP's who are willing to Red Team their leader and cabinet in public to ensure we get the best out of our government. Not a bunch of honking trained seals who'll sell out their constituents for the good of the leader and party.

Not sure who came up with this one but it rings true ...

Becoming infatuated with a politician is like believing the stripper really loves you ;)
 
^^
I pity the fools who get all ga ga over a god damn politician. I did that once in my youth and I've been ashamed of that moment ever since.
I want a pragmatic and boring leader. I agree that cabinet members have to show a united front, but they also should be able to admit mistakes. What I really want is Backbench MP's who are willing to Red Team their leader and cabinet in public to ensure we get the best out of our government. Not a bunch of honking trained seals who'll sell out their constituents for the good of the leader and party.
In his book, Memoirs of Very Civil Servant, Gordon Robertson wrote, "St Laurent's administrations from 1949 to 1956 probably gave Canada the most consistently good, financially responsible, trouble-free government the country has had in its entire history."

I believe that statement stands, today, as well as it did 25 years ago.
 
In his book, Memoirs of Very Civil Servant, Gordon Robertson wrote, "St Laurent's administrations from 1949 to 1956 probably gave Canada the most consistently good, financially responsible, trouble-free government the country has had in its entire history."

I believe that statement stands, today, as well as it did 25 years ago.
And at the end of that 7 years, they were starting to get a bit too big for their britches and needed a time out. It was too bad that Dief was so paranoid because the PC's laid the groundwork for many good things (Medicare for one, despite the bleatings of the dippers and liberals) as outlined in Ibbitson's "The Duel"

If our political leaders realized that a decade in power is enough and set themselves and the country for renewal on that timeline, we'd have a pretty decent place.
 
Time to rearrange the check chairs on SS JT Titanic…

And to add.


Curiouser and curiouser
 
^^
I pity the fools who get all ga ga over a god damn politician. I did that once in my youth and I've been ashamed of that moment ever since.
I want a pragmatic and boring leader. I agree that cabinet members have to show a united front, but they also should be able to admit mistakes. What I really want is Backbench MP's who are willing to Red Team their leader and cabinet in public to ensure we get the best out of our government. Not a bunch of honking trained seals who'll sell out their constituents for the good of the leader and party.
Yea, I caution young people not to become to infatuated with any politician, as you will be disappointed at some point.
 
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