Trudeau Popularity - or not. Nanos research

[Remius]

Some in Canada are predicting sunny ways and smooth sailing, but our economy is heavily resource focused and we know that the current government is policy-bound and actions-proven to not seek to maximize the productivity of large portions of Canada’s resource base. Theyre sticking with virtuous words and pixie dust to fuel economic recovery.

Down South, it’s still much more uncertain, many predicting the US will go into mild recession somewhere around 24Q3. If they do, I have a hard time seeing Canada avoid it…particularly since there seems to be no intent for the Government to adjust to increase productivity, particularly with increased global uncertainty.

Recession coming in 2024? 7 experts weigh in

5 On Your Side reached out to seven economists to hear their thoughts on a potential upcoming recession. Their collective opinion is unanimous: a recession looms on the horizon.

www.wral.com

Things are shifting it seems. I’m by no means saying things are sunny ways and all but there is a more optimistic outlook than was previously predicted. I generally trust my financial advisor who is saying similar things.

WSJ News Exclusive | A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They think the Fed is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease.

www.wsj.com

No Recession? Economists Are Now Predicting Brighter Days Ahead: New Survey Reveals Why

Economists anticipate a 2.2% rise in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Q4 2023, showing a significant upward revision from the former forecast of 1% growth.

www.benzinga.com

Bank of Canada says higher long-term bond yields no substitute for policy

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on Friday, speaking ahead of an interest rate decision on Oct. 25, said a recent surge in long-term bond yields is not a substitute for monetary policy and the economy is not heading for a deep recession.

www.reuters.com

None of that though will convince voters if they still can’t buy food and shelter in an affordable way.

 

[Good2Golf]

That fact that fuel and groceries for example are conveniently left out of many of the CPI references is exactly the kind of ‘ground truth’ pressure/pain points that I think many Canadians are beginning to tire of with the endless wispy, breathily-spoken words of positivity from the PM/Government…

 

[Fishbone Jones]

This isn't a JT or PP problem. And you cant blame them. This is a feature (or bug?) of our electoral system and it needs to be fixed.

It would nice to see a Con majority take on electoral reform. One can still hope.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

A functional senate, that even if appointed, would be equal numbers for all provinces (say 10 ea.) and an equitable/scaled number for territories (perhaps 5 ea), and have relatively stabilizing procedures for how senators could be appointed, perhaps semi-tied to concurrence by the respective provincial governments (yes I know, not perfect, but would be hard to argue that it wouldn’t be supportive of the will of the people provincially at the time). General spitballing, but aiming to at least somewhat respect the intent of the higher House in the Westminster system. Today it’s a farce…”checks and balances” seems to have as much meaning at the moment as the word “inconceivable”…

If we're going for equal numbers, why go high? Let's say 3 each instead. Why pay for what we don't need? Or simply one from each federal party per province/ territory picked by their constituents to a set term of 10 years. No majorities.

 

[YZT580]

It would nice to see a Con majority take on electoral reform. One can still hope.

how? Anything but the current method would doom them to perpetual also-rans. There is no other party with which they could form a coalition. Everyone else leans way left

 

[Halifax Tar]

It would nice to see a Con majority take on electoral reform. One can still hope.

It would but, as with the LPC, it would take a party who would put country before their own electoral success.

And I just don't see that in any of our party's.

 

[Brad Sallows]

We have a coalition government right now. Notice what they're good at - agreeing to spend money we aren't raising from revenues.

Entitlements you pay for are of no value to you unless you're fortunate enough to be able to make a claim on them.

 

[lenaitch]

I'm not a fan of Proportional Representation for the HOC. I want a specific person in my Riding that I can hold responsible for how he/she represents my interests in the government.

However I think that Proportional Representation could work for the Senate. Distribute the Senate seats for each Province proportionally based on the results of the PROVINCIAL elections. That means that the Senators represent the interests of the Provincial Parties rather than the Federal Parties so they aren't beholden to the same leaders/interests as the MPs in the HOC.

If we are going to have a Senate, how large and how selected should come after what its role is. If it remains appointed (through some means), then it shouldn't have a significant or controlling role in governance, but it certainly needs to be something more useful than it is now.

 

[FSTO]

Another great column by Paul Wells

The temptation of BMO

If Justin Trudeau stays, who'll stay with him?

paulwells.substack.com

 

[Eaglelord17]

At its core our HOC is supposed to be the peoples representation. And 39% (using todays numbers) should not be giving anyone majority control of the country.

I'm not claiming to have the answers, I just know, deep down, someone with 39% of the popular vote should not get the majority position in our government.



Agreed.

I would also add term limits, and a scaling of benefits weighed against what you have earned and your entitlements from your prior employment. Its time to start making it a service to the country for the greater good and less about service for self.

First past the post has weaknesses, but it also has strengths. Would you want the communists or fascists to get a seat because they achieved ‘x’ percentage of the vote?

The way to make our system better is improve the senate and go towards something like how the Swiss vote on major issues as well as being able to bring laws forward in referendums. Direct government. Representatives to write laws and vote for you, but if the issue is important enough the population decides how it goes, not this wait 4 years and hope the new party changes it.

Representative only leglislatures made sense in the era before the internet when you had to travel to vote. Now with technology the population could easily vote for their own interests.

 

[Kirkhill]

Things are shifting it seems. I’m by no means saying things are sunny ways and all but there is a more optimistic outlook than was previously predicted. I generally trust my financial advisor who is saying similar things.

WSJ News Exclusive | A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They think the Fed is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue to ease.

www.wsj.com

No Recession? Economists Are Now Predicting Brighter Days Ahead: New Survey Reveals Why

Economists anticipate a 2.2% rise in the gross domestic product (GDP) in Q4 2023, showing a significant upward revision from the former forecast of 1% growth.

www.benzinga.com

Bank of Canada says higher long-term bond yields no substitute for policy

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on Friday, speaking ahead of an interest rate decision on Oct. 25, said a recent surge in long-term bond yields is not a substitute for monetary policy and the economy is not heading for a deep recession.

www.reuters.com

None of that though will convince voters if they still can’t buy food and shelter in an affordable way.

How is anybody making predictions about anything at this time not a mug?

 

[RangerRay]

Everyone likes PR until their province brings in a referendum to change the electoral system. Then they realize that they lose their local representation and that means more to them than if a party gets 39% of the vote but 54% of the seats in the HoC.

 

[Halifax Tar]

First past the post has weaknesses, but it also has strengths. Would you want the communists or fascists to get a seat because they achieved ‘x’ percentage of the vote?

Are they a legally recognized political party ? If so, then yes; what ever was decided that X threshold to be. I am not sure a party that espouses fascist leanings would be allowed to run in Canadian politics. In fact haven't they been banned since WW2 ? But we have recognized and official Communist party's in Canada.

The way to make our system better is improve the senate and go towards something like how the Swiss vote on major issues as well as being able to bring laws forward in referendums. Direct government. Representatives to write laws and vote for you, but if the issue is important enough the population decides how it goes, not this wait 4 years and hope the new party changes it.

I like the ides of direct government myself.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Everyone likes PR until their province brings in a referendum to change the electoral system. Then they realize that they lose their local representation and that means more to them than if a party gets 39% of the vote but 54% of the seats in the HoC.

39% of the vote shouldn't be giving anyone a majority Government. Its ridiculous. And for the CPC that means the plurality of Canadians are on the other end of the political spectrum...

Dont get me wrong here, I am happy to see what looks like a collapsing LPC under JT. And I hope they are reduced to non official party status, maybe then they will take a walk in the snow and come back more centered and better for Canada. My issue is 39% of the vote getting 57% of the seats.

 

[TacticalTea]

Are they a legally recognized political party ? If so, then yes; what ever was decided that X threshold to be. I am not sure a party that espouses fascist leanings would be allowed to run in Canadian politics. In fact haven't they been banned since WW2 ? But we have recognized and official Communist party's in Canada.

And yet...
Fascism: 30 million
Communism: 100 million
Lest we forget.

 

[Halifax Tar]

And yet...
Fascism: 30 million
Communism: 100 million
Lest we forget.

You can thank our educational institutions that have been blatantly biases for this.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Are they a legally recognized political party ? If so, then yes; what ever was decided that X threshold to be. I am not sure a party that espouses fascist leanings would be allowed to run in Canadian politics. In fact haven't they been banned since WW2 ? But we have recognized and official Communist party's in Canada.

No bans on political parties in Canada. The fascists haven’t put forward a party in a long time, but that doesn’t mean if our electoral system changed to better suit parties being elected they wouldn’t.

We also have two official communist parties, the communist party and the marxist-leninist party.

 

[lenaitch]

Everyone likes PR until their province brings in a referendum to change the electoral system. Then they realize that they lose their local representation and that means more to them than if a party gets 39% of the vote but 54% of the seats in the HoC.

I remember the run-up to the binding referendum in Ontario in, I think 2007, for the 'mixed-member proportional system'. The existing system, for all of its faults, is simple and manageable by young and old; the person who gets the most votes in the riding wins. The process they outlined sounded like I I had to cast a vote, with my left hand, by the light of the moon, while waving a chicken over my head, then wait a week for the result.

Seriously, I don't like the concept of members representing the riding (which would have to be much larger) plus members representing what, the party?

 

[ModlrMike]

“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” Winston Churchill

The same could be said for voting systems. As imperfect as it may be, FPTP is the most representative form of voting we have. It's key weakness is voter turnout.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The same could be said for voting systems. As imperfect as it may be, FPTP is the most representative form of voting we have. It's key weakness is voter turnout.

If 39% of the votes wins 57% percent of the seats and we want to call that the most representative form of voting on the planet then its not wonder things are the way they are. Those simple numbers tell you its not representative.