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Quebec Election: 4 Sep 12

Given the Clarity Act, which will likely be cited as a legal precedent in any Scottish bid for secession, it is very unlikely that any respectable country, including France, would recognize a Quebec political entity that claimed sovereignty as a result of a UDI.
 
Agreed, but then there are such pillars of international respectability like Iran and Venezuela and a few others.  :irony:



Whether there is any recognition or not, we would end up with a very real crisis on our hands. How does the Federal government assert its authorty in a large piece of its territory that refuses to accept it as legitimate?
 
Isn't it funny how, when you grow up, the boogeyman no longer frightens you.......

Quebec might just find out that the rest of Canada isn't shaking in it's boots anymore. Moreover, I think the initial reaction will be one of anger and contempt....cooler heads would prevail eventually, but QC has not garnered much in the way of sympathy......

:2c:
 
I think Rex Murphy sums it up nicely....

Enough with the neverendum referendum
Article Link
Rex Murphy | Sep 8, 2012

It’s the same thing every time. In our benignly patriotic fantasies, we see Quebec separatism off to the churchyard, attend the lowering of the flower-spotted casket and picture the priest murmuring the lovely farewell prayers for the departed — then the reverie suddenly collapses. The bubble bursts, and this comforting tableau over a finally finished separatist movement is revealed to be all wish, no reality.

We realize that Quebec separatism is a durable entity — has a new guise every time it comes back — and that our fantasies about its vanishing are but self-comforting deceptions practised on ourselves.

Quebec separatism, like its odd twin the neverendum-referendum, has more lives than a sack of cats. This week, as if to illustrate the point, we saw yet another return of the lumbering beast, the victory of a Quebec minority government for the latest separatist avatar Pauline Marois. Naturally the victory, even though premised on a rather thin and meagre 30-plus percent of the popular vote, started the whole conversation around separatism and Quebec independence all over again. The dragon returns.

But I also sense something important and quite different from our last encounters with the beast. For the first time since Quebec separation became a real issue for all Canadians — which was, I suggest, as long ago as the turbulent ’60s, and the launch of the (then famous) Bi and Bi Commission — the threat of Quebec walking out of the federation does not send chills up the spines of people outside Quebec.

I cannot speak for the dynamics within Quebec, but outside, the feeling is more and more clear. The game of threat, campaign and referendum is worn out. The emotions stirred in so many Canadians early on in this process — the strong, reflexive urge to prevent something as horrible as the breakup of the country — have greatly decayed. Separatism is no longer seen as a legitimate yearning for recognition or respect. People believe Quebec has received both in good measure.

Separatism is more often seen now as a tactical way to lever goodies from weak federal governments, or to claim special privileges within Quebec. A tool in the political box, not a cry from the heart.

Outside Quebec, the mood on Quebec separatism is not so much indifference, as low-boil annoyance. If Ms. Marois were to reach a level of popular support within her minority that enabled her to try once more for a Yes in a referendum, I very much suspect the general citizenry outside Quebec would stifle a yawn, profess annoyance and urge them to “get on with it.” The endless ping-pong of “we’re going, no, we’re staying” has become very flat, weary and stale. No Quebec separatist politician can count on some huge rally of non-Canadians to raise a storm of “don’t go” should there be a next time.

Call it what you will. After a generation of separatist politics, after enduring the presence of a separatist party (the Bloc Québécois) in the House of Commons, after all the strains and emotions of fighting referendum campaigns, most people are quite tired of it all. And the federalist elements within Quebec — particularly those great long-sufferers, Quebec anglos — must surely by now have come to a point of utter, frustrated exhaustion.

So if Ms. Marios’ new government intends to pick up the old game of “demanding” everything from Ottawa, as she simultaneously denounces the federalism that has routinely given Quebec’s demands so high a priority, the current Prime Minister will not jump to deliver. Her game will be seen as the feeble, out-of-date act it is. Harper may even, with justice, turn the request around and ask her what Quebec is bringing to the federation in exchange.

Ms. Marois’ government might contemplate the following as an axiom: A separatist provincial government should never demand more than what is requested by the provincial governments that actually support, believe in and want to remain in Canada.
end
 
GAP said:
A separatist provincial government should never demand more than what is requested by the provincial governments that actually support, believe in and want to remain in Canada.
While such an axiom may be valid, it's not likely to be followed. I can't see the "we're oppressed; give us more money" crowd ever backing away from the Federal feed trough.
 
Is it fake or real?
http://www.milice.qc.ca/
2drryg4.jpg

La Milice Patriotique Québécoise, aussi appelée MPQ, est une organisation de défense territoriale, chargée de servir et de protéger l'ensemble du peuple du Québec ainsi que l'ensemble de son territoire. L'objectif de base est d'offrir une force d'intervention structurée qui pourra, avec un maximum d'effectifs, fournir les secours d'ordre matériel et moral en cas de désastre causé par une catastrophe naturelle, des troubles internes comme la rupture des services essentiels, ou protéger contre un agresseur ou un envahisseur qui voudrait assimiler le peuple ou dérober ses richesses et celles de son territoire.
Why they still exist ? Why CSIS didn't close this if MPQ even published phone number and use qc.ca domain?
I think it is against Canada and it must be closed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0l3E8_FuFc
 
They're real, and we've seen them here before. I'm sure they're being watched. Better to give them their own rope...
 
ModlrMike said:
They're real, and we've seen them here before. I'm sure they're being watched. Better to give them their own rope...
I was really scared to see this information and specially video on youtube.
It is interesting that they use the same phone number  for recruiting and  business  for selling military things "MPQ Surplus". On logo they wrote "Surplus militaire pur militans Quebecois"
 
Rex Murphy's Cross Canada Checkup on the CBC should be interesting today.
 
secondchance said:
Why they still exist ? Why CSIS didn't close this if MPQ even published phone number and use qc.ca domain?
Because it's easier to keep tabs on the fruitbars when they publish their activities and contact details on the web. Better to watch them operate in plain site than to drive them underground.
 
secondchance said:
I was really scared to see this...
Me too. I was afraid I'd be on sick leave after busting a gut, laughing at the paintball posers.  :nod:
 
I'm curious about the fact that some people think that if Quebec seperated that all CF assets and bases would automatically belong to them.  If anything that property, and those assets still belong to the crown, not the province.  I could see negociations happening for those things but i can't see a Quebec flag flying on those bases until negociations are completed.  as far as I know, soldiers, airmen and sailors that are from Quebec could switch to a Quebec militia/army or whatever, but they would still be obligated within the CF until they chose to release (pensions and salaries would be stake).  Those people took oaths and are obligated by those oaths until they release.

I'm not sure what the numbers are like but I am willing to bet that the proportion of military ressources in Quebec is way higher than whatever proportion they would be able to claim.  For example if they are a quarter of our population but have one third of our military ressources.  I think it would be unrealistic for them to think they would get a third of all that.

Plus, as pointed out not all francophones are from Quebec (I happen to be franco-ontarien) so would have no right to citizenship there, not to mention the many Quebecers that would opt to stay in the CF either because they are canadians first or don't want to risk their futures.
 
Crantor said:
I'm curious about the fact that some people think that if Quebec seperated that all CF assets and bases would automatically belong to them.  If anything that property, and those assets still belong to the crown, not the province.  I could see negociations happening for those things but i can't see a Quebec fag flag flying on those bases until negociations are completed.  as far as I know, soldiers, airmen and sailors that are from Quebec could switch to a Quebec militia/army or whatever, but they would still be obligated within the CF until they chose to release (pensions and salaries would be stake).  Those people took oaths and are obligated by those oaths until they release.

I'm not sure what the numbers are like but I am willing to bet that the proportion of military ressources in Quebec is way higher than whatever proportion they would be able to claim.  For example if they are a quarter of our population but have one third of our military ressources.  I think it would be unrealistic for them to think they would get a third of all that.

Plus, as pointed out not all francophones are from Quebec (I happen to be franco-ontarien) so would have no right to citizenship there, not to mention the many Quebecers that would opt to stay in the CF either because they are canadians first or don't want to risk their futures.

There ftfy.  I honestly don't know how many members from there would go or stay.  As for the goodies, what's there in the province might be a fight to get out.  They might see it as possession is 9/10ths of the law.
 
Crantor said:
I'm curious about the fact that some people think that if Quebec seperated that all CF assets and bases would automatically belong to them.  If anything that property, and those assets still belong to the crown, not the province.  I could see negociations happening for those things but i can't see a Quebec fag flying on those bases until negociations are completed.  as far as I know, soldiers, airmen and sailors that are from Quebec could switch to a Quebec militia/army or whatever, but they would still be obligated within the CF until they chose to release (pensions and salaries would be stake).  Those people took oaths and are obligated by those oaths until they release.

I'm not sure what the numbers are like but I am willing to bet that the proportion of military ressources in Quebec is way higher than whatever proportion they would be able to claim.  For example if they are a quarter of our population but have one third of our military ressources.  I think it would be unrealistic for them to think they would get a third of all that.

Plus, as pointed out not all francophones are from Quebec (I happen to be franco-ontarien) so would have no right to citizenship there, not to mention the many Quebecers that would opt to stay in the CF either because they are canadians first or don't want to risk their futures.


Quite frankly the fate of a few aircraft and a few thousand CF members is going to be very, very small potatoes indeed.

The Supremes have directed that IF a majority of Quebecers vote Oui, on a clear (fair, honest) question, to secede, then the Government of Canada must enter into "good faith" negotiations which aim, honestly, to achieve that end.

It is mt belief that those negotiations, which will be conducted in good faith, by both sides, will bog down and, eventually fail.

My guess is that Canada and Quebec will agree to a multinational arbitration panel of distinguished jurists, one selected by Canada, one selected by Quebec and one selected by the Secretary General of the UN, to decide the issues.

(Parenthetically, I think that the prospect of the panel will convince Canada and Quebec to agree on several compromises - in most compromises each side gains something; in arbitration one side get everything and the other nothing. Thus, I expect the panel to deal only with a (still fairly large) slate of really difficult issues - one by one. I have no idea which side will win most.)

My guess is that military facilities and equipment will be easy. Quebec will not want a front line fighter fleet, but it will want to join NORAD and it will offer a fighter base as its "fair share." But it is likely that USAF not RCAF fighters will be based in Bagotville. I expect that Quebec will also eschew a deep sea fleet - but they might, almost certainly will want some Coast Guard vessels and some MCDVs. Quebec will want some C-130s and tactical helicopters and it will want a small, very small army. My other guess is that the new Quebec army will be short of experience ~ I expect many (most?) young Quebec officers and soldiers, mostly below the ranks of major and sergeant, will want to go to Quebec while their older, more senior counterparts will want to finish out their service in the CF.

My final guess is that an independent Quebec will be much, much smaller than today's province of Quebec - it will not have the HUGE Ungava Peninsula and it will be missing parts of West Quebec, too. It will leave Canada with zero debt; Canada will be responsible for ALL of the national debt that exists on the day before separation; but Quebec will be a poor country ~ its bonds will have junk status requiring the people of Quebec to borrow less than they want and, thus, surrender many of the public services they hold very dear.

BUT: I am certain that:

1. Both Canada and Quebec will be poorer and "weaker" in the world, thanks to the separation exercise; and

2. French Canadians in Canada will curse their Quebec confreres as they watch Canada toss the French language and the French Canadian culture on to the bonfires of hatred.
 
Yes, E.R., you're spot on.  I agree we'll both be poorer for the loss of the other, however much each side makes the other pull it's hair at times.  But then family members are like that are they not.  And I especially agree on your last point that there will be bad blood for those of the other equation that remain, on both sides of the border I fear.  I for one would not wish to be either a Anglo in post-PQ as much as a Franco in post-CA.  Lots of stink eye to go around to each group.
 
Interesting take.

About the debt, I assume you are speaking iof its share of the national debt.  Would it be safe to assume they would be leaving with their provincial debt?

I agree about some of the military assets they would want.  But also, given they would want a much smaller military, and many Canadians serving in Quebec would leave (some anglo reserve units for example as well) many small towns like St-Jean, Farnham, Valcartier, Bagotville would see significant reductions of personel  that would have devestating consequences on their economies.  The same goes for any town that has a federal footprint (CRA for example in Shawinigan).

They might offer up bagotville in exchange for NORAD membership.  Or trade it.  Canada would keep it but it would be something akin to Guantanamo base or Gibraltar or the Falklands.

I could see western Quebec remaining.  But the Ungava?  That will probably be the biggest hot potatoe.

I can see most reserve units becoming or being turned over to a QF.

I'm not so sure about the bad blood though.  At least where I live.  A lot of francophones outside Quebec already don't identify with that province. I'd be more worried about being a fracophone hors-Quebec  travelling or visiting Quebec after seperation or worse, a francophone Quebecois who opts to stay in Canada
A lot of what ifs.  But less worrying given the current mood.
 
Crantor said:
Interesting take.

About the debt, I assume you are speaking iof its share of the national debt.  Would it be safe to assume they would be leaving with their provincial debt?

...


Yes, you assume correctly: I assume that Canada retains 100% of its national debt, including Quebec's "fair share."

Quebec will,  those "good faith" negotiations, suggest that some(substantial) share of their provincial debt was incurred because they had to conform to Canadians laws and standards ~ it's a weak argument and I doubt it will carry the day but I also expect that Canada will end up owning some (10%, 15% even 25%) of Quebec's provincial debt for a whole host of reasons, none of them particularly "good," but all of them politically necessary, including pacifying our trading partners.
 
I was always curious if we would have something along the lines of an easement wrt the Trans Canada Highway, the St Lawrence River and even some air routes in Quebec airspace.
 
Likely.  While Quebec might have a claim to a good chunk of the St-lawrence seaway, it would be in their best interest to allow traffic to flow freely.  We might have a beef with them over it but more so our and their mutual trading partners.  Plus, I am sure that most ships would still have to enter and leave through Canadian waters.  I don't think that would be too big of an issue.  Enforcement along their stretch might become one though.

Same with Quebec's New England border.  Canada would likely pull all border staff, RCMP etc etc from that part of the border.  The US would would likely beef up their precense there, likely not trusting Quebec to maintain proper border control for at least several years.
 
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