Even a frosty rapprochement between Russia and the West would, meanwhile, create an opportunity for Trump to start breaking apart the Sino-Russian alliance. Russia and China are not the natural strategic partners they want us to believe they are. While Moscow’s leaders never publicly acknowledge this,
the Kremlin fears China, which has been growing in military and economic strength relative to Russia.
Moscow and Beijing have a turbulent history, a centuries-long territorial dispute, and
a 2,600 mile border in the Far East that Russian military leaders consider to be undefendable except with nuclear weapons.
In 2010, during my service as a DIA intelligence officer, a senior retired Russian military officer admitted that China was a “nightmare” for Russia from a military standpoint. He
echoed a reported admission by the former Chief of the Russian General Staff, Nikolai Makarov, that
China was Russia’s second greatest security threat, after the US and Nato.
Perhaps sensing that Trump might manage to end the Sino-Russian marriage of convenience, Beijing has sought to insert itself into the Ukraine peace process by offering, through intermediaries,
to serve as a broker, facilitating peace talks and a summit between Putin and Trump, according to the
Wall Street Journal. Speaking with Putin on Monday, Xi called Russia a “true friend” and “good neighbour.
But Trump is likely to have another card to play: Putin’s uneasiness about Russia’s alliance with Iran, one of the other spokes of the so-called Axis of Authoritarians alongside Beijing. While it would never publicly admit it,
the Kremlin is unlikely to be in favour of Tehran having operational nuclear capability, particularly given the irrational behaviour of its leaders, who regularly threaten to wipe Israel off the face of the earth.
Already, the ground seems to be shifting in favour of a significant change in the Middle East. It is unlikely to be a coincidence that, on Monday, Israel voted with the United States against a UN motion highly critical of Russia.
European leaders would have cause for concern on one count. Trump may be preparing to signal to Putin that he is content with Russia serving as the dominant power in Eurasia, as long as it doesn’t invade a Nato country.
By having direct talks with Russia and excluding Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, at least for the time being, Trump has already played on Putin’s sense of vanity, Russian national pride, and Moscow’s long-term sense of being a great power that deserves a seat at the table with the big boys.
The next stage would be to directly address a long-held Russian anxiety. For more than a quarter of a century, the Kremlin’s threat perceptions have centred on an interpretation of
the Brzezinski Doctrine, which former Jimmy Carter’s national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski summarised in his book
The Grand Chessboard.
The Russians concluded that Brzezinski’s insight – “he who controls Eurasia controls the world” – meant that Washington sought Russian containment and territorial fragmentation. The loss of the Cold War as a result of the US President Ronald Reagan’s containment strategy exacerbated those fears.
Peace in Ukraine, a reshuffle of alliances in the Middle East, and a new settlement with Russia would allow the United States to return to a version of the original Monroe Doctrine, refocusing on hemispheric defence and freeing Washington up to directly confront Beijing. Having renamed the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, Trump is signalling to China to get out of the US sphere of influence and strategic security perimeter.
The US would protect the Western Hemisphere – North, Central, and South America, including the surrounding islands. Russia would dominate Eurasia. Europe would look after itself. And with US assistance, Japan, Australia and South Korea would, within a Joint Deterrence Force framework, take the lead in ensuring stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Could this be Trump’s latest Art of the Deal? We may be about to find out.
