North Korea (Superthread)

[tomahawk6]

The most efficient is by ballistic missile. I don't know if the North Koreans have the technology to do that. The goal would be to create an EMP,which would shut down everything electronic.

 

[jeffb]

The most efficient is by ballistic missile. I don't know if the North Koreans have the technology to do that. The goal would be to create an EMP,which would shut down everything electronic.

Be that as it may, there are all kinds of ways that North Korea could deliver a nuclear weapon that would still be very effective if not optimal. A container ship detonating as it pulled alongside in Los Angeles or San Fransisco prior to inspection for example. This is not a country that is planning on neutralizing the US nuclear threat with its nuclear arsenal. They can't even provide mutually assured destruction deterrence. All that their nuclear warheads have to do is present a specter of mushroom clouds in any American city or even in Japan, South Korea, etc. and they meet the intent of negating any thoughts of conventional force use on the parts of the US.

An EMP, especially a High Altitude EMP, would be quite effective but the same technical problems apply. The missile technology required to get a nuclear warhead the 400 Km up and over North America required to have a large effect is largely the same as that required to place a warhead in Washington, DC. 

 

[CougarKing]

A container ship detonating as it pulled alongside in Los Angeles or San Fransisco prior to inspection for example.

I would have thought a "dirty nuke" or "dirty bomb" would also be another credible threat delivered by the means above, considering Pyongyang's access to nuclear technology.


And here's a definition of the above threat:

WHAT IS A 'DIRTY BOMB'?
TIME Pentagon correspondent Mark Thompson explains:

"Dirty nukes are what you may choose to build if you're unable to create a real nuclear bomb, i.e. one whose explosion is based on a nuclear reaction. A dirty bomb is a conventional explosive salted with radioactive isotopes in order to spew out that nuclear material and contaminate a wide area. The military usefulness of such devices have always been in dispute. In fact, the TNT in such a bomb may still be more dangerous than the nuclear material. Its destructive power would really depend on the size of the conventional bomb, and the volume and nature of the nuclear material.

"The assumption has been that forces who would build a dirty nuke would do so because it's far, far easier than to build a nuclear bomb. It's unlikely to kill 10,000 people, but any bomb that killed people and set off Geiger counters would terrify a whole city. It's ultimately a pure terror weapon."

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,182637,00.html#ixzz2PnlWRHw4

 

[Smirnoff123]

Heres another.

 

[Old Sweat]

As of today the North Koreans are in control of events. They do not even have to have a warhead or even a dirty bomb; all they have to do is keep the possibility alive. A couple of test firings of mobile missiles, even if partly or wholly unsuccessful, will keep theat alive in the minds of the rest of the world. The challenge is not to go too far, which does not mean they won't sink a South Korean ship or shell a border post or murder an official. In fact, they can even trade a few lives and still remain in control.

Look, they have bluffed the Americans into postponing a missile test of their own. Obama, Kerry, Hagel et al just blinked. Hopefully this will all die out by the end of the month. Given my record and the record of the punditry in predicting events, however, that may not happen. But at this time, all I see is excessive rhetoric from an unpredictable, heavily armed dynasty - sort of a street gang on meth - whom everybody else is inclined to humour in the hope they will go away.

 

[mba2011]

As of today the North Koreans are in control of events. They do not even have to have a warhead or even a dirty bomb; all they have to do is keep the possibility alive..

I disagree. IMO the Americans have control of this. If the North launched any missile at the Americans in Japan or ROK, or anything bigger than an artillery shell at ROK, the Americans will shoot it down and then go on the offensive.

The US's MDA has Aegis components in the Sea of Japan with the USN and THAAD components in Guam, Fort Greely and Vandenberg AFB. In addition to that, the SBX craft is moving to the Sea of Japan. The American's will know the second anything is launched.

Yes the North is making threats and the US is responding to them, but just because the US isn't making threats back doesn't mean the North is in control.

 

[jeffb]

I disagree. IMO the Americans have control of this. If the North launched any missile at the Americans in Japan or ROK, or anything bigger than an artillery shell at ROK, the Americans will shoot it down and then go on the offensive.

Your scenario actually disproves your point. The DPRK has the initiative. The US can not do anything unless the DPRK commits a violent act. The US has to be seen to be working for peace in order to avoid charges of warmongering both from within and without. The US basically is forced to be reactive here.

That being said, in the event of this conflict going "hot" the US, and its wide range of allies I suspect, will quickly regain the initiative as the DPRK finds itself quickly isolated and subjected to the exact kind of fight that Western militaries have been aching for since Gulf War 1. A "stand-up" fight against an organized military with all the trappings associated thereof.

 

[Old Sweat]

Indeed. They have all these resources deployed to counter the NK regime, which can not be somewhere else. And of course, the Americans could destroy the country, but they are not in any position to do so, without risking a clash with the Chinese. The question is what can the Chinese do to deescalate the tension. Unfortunately they can't do much in the short term, one way or the other. My point is that the possible existence of one or more nukes makes any escalation by the US, China, Japan or SK far too risky, unless there was a massive NK attack on the south, and that is unlikely.

NK is contained, and it is not. It can't do too much, but it is still capable of considerable mischief.

 

[mba2011]

My point is that the possible existence of one or more nukes makes any escalation by the US, China, Japan or SK far too risky, unless there was a massive NK attack on the south, and that is unlikely.

I think that its more the fact that if the US moves without substantial provocation they risk escalating tensions with the Chinese, then the possible possession  of a nuke by DPRK. If the US was to become the aggressor tomorrow, many countries would be angered and the Chinese would be especially angered. If DPRK throws the first punch and then the US attacks, very few countries would see it as an unjustified attack or react negatively.

There's an interesting article about the Chinese and supporting the DPRK. Its been noted before the reduction of aid since February as well as a drastic reduction of arms shipments, but this is the first time Beijing has come close to outright condemnation of DPRK.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/world/asia/from-china-a-call-to-avoid-chaos-for-selfish-gain.html?ref=world

 

[Old Sweat]

I think that its more the fact that if the US moves without substantial provocation they risk escalating tensions with the Chinese, then the possible possession  of a nuke by DPRK. If the US was to become the aggressor tomorrow, many countries would be angered and the Chinese would be especially angered. If DPRK throws the first punch and then the US attacks, very few countries would see it as an unjustified attack or react negatively.

There's an interesting article about the Chinese and supporting the DPRK. Its been noted before the reduction of aid since February as well as a drastic reduction of arms shipments, but this is the first time Beijing has come close to outright condemnation of DPRK.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/world/asia/from-china-a-call-to-avoid-chaos-for-selfish-gain.html?ref=world

What makes you think the US would take the course of action you suggest?

 

[Nemo888]

The conflict is primarily between North and South Korea. If conflict starts 10,000 artillery pieces immediately start firing into Seoul. Over 80% of South Korean industry and their major financial sector are within range. South Korea is toast. All the plans involve retreating to the South and then taking back Seoul later. The DPRK soldiers survival plan involves a rush into what is left of Seoul to loot food and supplies. We win the war a few months later obviously.

The problem is the cost of winning. South Korea is a major part of global supply chains. No iPhones, flat panels or computer memory. It would probably start another global recession. To top it off WTF do we do with North Korea. It is nothing but a liability. Even if the North offered to rejoin many in the South do not want them back. Some analysts say China wants reconciliation to destroy South Korea's economy.

 

[jeffb]

I am not convinced that it would go as badly as you assume Nemo. Looking at the Korean War as an example, while it is true that the North has become much more militarized, the South is substantially more prepared then they were in 1950. The US Army in 1950 was almost non-existent in the region at the time and technological gap between the North Koreans, later backed by China, and the UN Forces was not substantial. Fast forward to today and you have a situation in which it is unlikely that North Korea would enjoy and intervention, direct or indirect, on the scale that it did 60 years ago. Also, the techological gap between the DPRK forces and South Korea/ US forces is vast.

Your point about the initial bombardments is valid but Seoul is about 50 km from the border. This means that while it may be in range of some of their MLRS systems, it would be out of range of any of the artillery. This would require the DPRK to move up their massive numbers of guns before a sustained bombardment. I just don't buy that the DPRK has the prime movers to deploy that many guns, and associated artillery, up the few roads while advancing their tens (hundreds?) of thousands of troops up the same ground.

 

[Nemo888]

50k is around half way. Seoul is over 600Km2. The fools have built right to the Imjin river. If America had the balls to first strike it they might be able to save Seoul. It would take every B52 loaded with incendiary cluster munitions. Cut a swath 20km or wider across the border. A few thousand square kilometers like an oven on broil and no oxygen. Problem solved. Back in time for lunch. Screw "smart" weapons.

That fact is probably why the Kim's will just whine for attention and then back down at the last minute. They are the crazy, smelly homeless person yelling insults on the bus. There is nothing to gain by kicking their ass. Just read your paper and ignore them.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

My god. listen to yourselves. The world is going to end, the sky is falling!

This guy is a pissant, a blowhard and an egotistcal idiot.

If he decides to toss out a couple of nukes, there is little anyone can do about it.

When that happens, the WORLD will retaliate and N Korea will be no more. The people, land, everything that is there now, will still exist, but the government won't. There will be a forced takeover, unless China gets there first.

All this chicken little hand wringing amounts to nothing but angst.

Trying to analyze what this despotic imbicile is going to do is a waste of time, brain power and vocabulary.

He doesn't deserve the time it takes to wipe your ass with his latest threats.

Just like Kim wants.

Take a breath and try think beyond the most recent threat he makes. He's either going to do it or not.

Either way, there's SFA anyone can do about it if he decides to push the button.

If he doesn't follow through, he loses face and becomes an idiot an the world stage. If he does, he loses his country and his life.

We'll kill him and everyone connected to him, just like we have with the rest of the world's terrorists.

All the blubbering in the world about how scary this twat is, is a useless waste of energy and a distraction from whatever sport you should be watching.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Happened to catch this interview the other day on CBC Radio with B.R. Myers, who says that everything we know about the North Koreans is wrong.

http://www.cbc.ca/day6/popupaudio.html?clipIds=2371589921

 

[GR66]

While anything is possible with a madman at the helm, I think China will likely go to great lengths to prevent it getting out of hand.  They potentially have much to lose.  Significant damage to the South would hurt China's economy and could hurt them politically as well.  If they are seen as defending an aggressive madman it could provide an excuse for the West to place economic barriers to China's continuing economic growth which is vital to their internal political stability.

If Kim uses a nuke or lays waste to Seoul, it will be difficult for China to argue against American invasion without political side effects.  They would confirm the worst fears of their neighbours as to their motives while the Americans would be re-confirmed as the defenders of freedom and independence in the region.  I think they realize it would be a major setback from what they have been working toward with little or no payoff in return.

I think it would be much wiser for China to step in and stop Kim should he cross any line.  That way THEY could be seen as the heroes saving the day.  The need for the Americans to remain in place as the "defenders" would cease and China's influence in the region would be increased.

 

[OldSolduer]

I'm with recceguy on this one.

No one knows what this clown will do, nor do we know what the response of the US, China, Russia or Madagascar will be.

 

[GAP]

The US will do what it has always done.....pat the rabid puppy on the head, feed him the aid he wants, pat themselves on the shoulder....

 

[CougarKing]

Meanwhile Pyongyang continues its current round of brinksmanship...

link

South Korean ministry: 'Indication' that North Korea preparing for fourth nuclear test

SEOUL, South Korea - South Korea's point man on North Korea said Monday there is an "indication" that Pyongyang is preparing for a fourth nuclear test, a day after another Seoul official said a Pyongyang missile test may be in the works.

Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae told a parliamentary committee Monday that "there is such an indication" of nuclear test preparations at Pyongyang's site in the country's northeast, according to two ministry officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Either a nuclear test or a missile test would escalate tensions that have been rising for weeks on the Korean Peninsula, and could invite a new round of U.N. Security Council sanctions over North Korea's nuclear and rocket activity. The U.S. and South Korea have been raising their defence posture, and foreign diplomats were considering a warning from Pyongyang that their safety in North Korea could not be guaranteed beginning Wednesday.

North Korea has unleashed a flurry of war threats and provocations over the U.N. sanctions and ongoing U.S.-South Korean military drills, which the allies say are routine but Pyongyang says is a preparation for a northward invasion.

Ryoo made his comment in answering a lawmaker's question about increased personnel and vehicle activities at the North's nuclear test site.

Ministry officials cite Ryoo as telling the lawmakers he wouldn't provide further details because they involve confidential intelligence affairs.

South Korean defence officials previously said the North completed preparations for a nuclear test at two underground tunnels. The North used one tunnel for its Feb. 12 nuclear test. The second remains unused.

 

[Kat Stevens]

What amazes me is that the Chinese haven't loudly, and publicly, disciplined this yapping mutt.  Trans-Pacific missile ping pong would be bad for China's newly discovered greed machines.