tomahawk6 said:
What is Iran's purpose do you suppose ? Distract the west ? Open a new front ? Rally the arab world ? Set the stage for the 12th Imam ?
All of the above?
Let's study each point on it's own:
Distracting the West.
The West has been pushing Iran harder and harder so they would give up their nuclear plans. By engineering a conflict elsewhere in the region, it forces the West, particularly the US, to focus on something else, allowing Iran a little more leeway. The increased time and decreased diplomatic pressure could work both ways: with more "space," Iran might get less aggressive and be more open to negociations down the road—on the other hand, Iran might see the decreased pressure and international attention as an invitation to ramping up it's campaign. It also might let Russia, which wants to "pay back" the percieved encroachment of NATO on what it sees as it's rightful sphere of influence, negociate with Iran to provide materials, equipment and expertise in exchange for cooperation against NATO and, specifically, the US. I hate to quote movies in serious contexts, but as Captain Ramsey says in
Crimson Tide, "we can count on the Russians to act in their own best interests." By forcing the West to focus on Lebanon and Iran, Russia assumes it can prevent NATO from expanding further towards it's borders.
I'm not saying the crisis in Lebanon was engineered by Russia, but Iran's behaviour is playing into the Russians' hands.
Opening a new front
As we know, Iran is already interfering with US-led operations in Iraq. We also know that US troop capabilities are fast approaching their limit. Putting two and two together, we can easily see that by opening a new front, Iran reduces the threat to it’s own territory—the US can’t invade if it does not have the troops—and also helps the insurgency in Iraq—the US has to keep troops ready in case the situation around Israel degenerates and it has to intervene.
Iran wants to survive, like any country in the world. They know the US will not accept their behaviour for much longer, and they also know the US could easily move troops currently fighting in Iraq into Iran if Iraq became pacified—which is the reason for keeping that front open—however, they know limited operations would be possible if the US did not have to keep troops available for other fronts, real or perceived.
What all that means is that by having a prolonged war in Lebanon, Iran is buying itself time.
Rallying the Arab world
This is another rather easy question to answer, if we don’t look into the particulars. It is also tied to distracting the West and opening a new front.
Iran is undoubtedly helping Hezbollah in dispersing propaganda against Israel and the West. By showing “atrocities,” Iran makes Israel look bad and can convince moderate Muslims that Jews—and by extension, the West—hate Muslims.
This can cause grassroots terrorism in Western countries, increasingly violent demonstrations, (we haven’t seen much violence yet, I’ll admit) and various diplomatic nightmares the West will have to deal with. All this has the same aim as the two previous objectives: buying Iran time to prepare to fight against the US.
Setting the stage for the 12th Imam
I’ll avoid touching this one for now, because I don’t know nearly as much as I’d like to about the idea of the 12th Imam, but I’d say it’s likely a reason for Iran to get involved and to try and stir things up as much as possible.
In retrospect, Iran just wants to preserve it's own interests—it does not care about Lebanon or Syria or the Palestinians. The more time Iran can buy, the less likely a US invasion becomes, and an invasion is exactly what Iran wants to avoid, quite obviously.
