Iraq Unravels

[Weinie]

He is an outstanding officer. Was awarded the Star of Military Valour as a Major in Afghanistan

 

[The Bread Guy]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/iranian-canadians-dance-cheer-and-celebrate-death-of-top-general-in-iran/ar-BBYAAg6?ocid=ientp

Iranian-Canadians dance, cheer and celebrate death of top general in Iran ...

It's not the Iranians dancing & hoping for regime change we have to worry about - this from this past summer:  "Hezbollah operative collected information on Toronto’s Pearson airport"

The problem for Iran is that, while yes they have a lot of ways to hurt the US and Israel ...

That bit in yellow could also lead to the U.S. being sucked in, too, to support an ally.

 

[OldSolduer]

He is an outstanding officer. Was awarded the Star of Military Valour as a Major in Afghanistan

I fully agree. He was Anti Armour Platoon Commander in 2 VP. Awesome dude.

 

[Loachman]

Why start a fight and then immediately cede the initiative?

I don't see any initiative being ceded, just a wait to see what their reaction is.

It's not the Iranians dancing & hoping for regime change we have to worry about

I'm not worried about them.

It is, however, another indication of how the general Iranian population likely feel.

How fragile is the Iranian government's position? How close are the population to an all-out uprising?

(Probably nowhere near as close as I'd like them to be.)

 

[The Bread Guy]

How fragile is the Iranian government's position? How close are the population to an all-out uprising?

(Probably nowhere near as close as I'd like them to be.)

Me, too, hence the bit of worry in spite of knowing one or two very bad folks are no more.

 

[tomahawk6]

The Iraqi's decide today whether to tell the US to leave which will make the US left happy and probably Iran. This would give them a direct land route to Syria. 

Soleimani's legacy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/soleimanis-legacy-the-gruesome-advanced-ieds-that-haunted-us-troops-in-iraq/ar-BBYAzkO?ocid=spartanntp

 

[jeffb]

18 Abn Corps has a Canadian BG bill Fletcher assigned.

https://home.army.mil/bragg/index.php/about/leadership

It's a standing position. The current CCA once occupied that post.

 

[Jarnhamar]

The deputy commander of the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State doesn't have the same quality intelligence President Trump has access too.

WASHINGTON — As the Trump administration draws up war plans against Iran over what it says are threats to American troops and interests, a senior British military official told reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday that he saw no increased risk from Iran or allied militias in Iraq or Syria.

A few hours later, the United States Central Command issued an unusual rebuke: The remarks from the British official — Maj. Gen. Chris Ghika, who is also the deputy commander of the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State — run “counter to the identified credible threats available to intelligence from U.S. and allies regarding Iranian-backed forces in the region.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/world/middleeast/trump-iran-threats.amp.html

 

[brihard]

The deputy commander of the American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State doesn't have the same quality intelligence President Trump has access too.

So either the intel exists and wasn't shared appropriately, or it doesn't exist.

 

[Kirkhill]

Or the same set of data is perceived differently.

 

[brihard]

Or the same set of data is perceived differently.

Potentially, though I suspect at that level they’re likely getting mostly finished analytical product rather than raw stuff.

It’s definitely possible that there was security intelligence that, because of its nature, was not shared with the military or with the on the ground commanders. I’m not qualified to evaluate the likelihood or wisdom of that.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Iraqi's decide today whether to tell the US to leave which will make the US left happy and probably Iran. This would give them a direct land route to Syria. 

Soleimani's legacy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/soleimanis-legacy-the-gruesome-advanced-ieds-that-haunted-us-troops-in-iraq/ar-BBYAzkO?ocid=spartanntp

Last time the US left, the Shias almost lost the country to ISIS, they may want to punish the US a bit, but not take that risk, plus there are a lot of factions there that don't like or trust the Iranians either.

 

[Weinie]

Potentially, though I suspect at that level they’re likely getting mostly finished analytical product rather than raw stuff.

It’s definitely possible that there was security intelligence that, because of its nature, was not shared with the military or with the on the ground commanders. I’m not qualified to evaluate the likelihood or wisdom of that.

It is also possible that it was US Eyes only intel. We run into this all the time in Joint HQ's and where we have exchange pos'ns

 

[The Bread Guy]

The latest, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act....

NATO has suspended training of Iraqi forces to ensure the safety of several hundred mission members amid fears for regional stability after a U.S. air strike in Baghdad killed a top Iranian general, an alliance spokesman said on Saturday.

“The safety of our personnel in Iraq is paramount,” acting NATO spokesman Dylan White said in a statement. “We continue to take all precautions necessary. NATO’s mission is continuing, but training activities are temporarily suspended.”

He said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had spoken by phone with U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper since Friday’s attack on Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad airport.

NATO was monitoring the situation in the region very closely, he added, amid concern that the killing of Iran’s second-most powerful man could trigger a conflagration in the Middle East.

NATO Mission Iraq (NMI), made up of several hundred trainers, advisers and support staff from both countries of the 29-member alliance and non-NATO partner countries, includes military and civilian personnel.

Established in Baghdad in October 2018 after three years of war against Islamic State, NMI is a non-combat ‘train-and-advise’ mission to help Iraqi security structures and institutions fend off future insurgencies. Its personnel do not deploy alongside Iraqi forces during their operations.

The current commander of the NATO mission is Major General Jennie Carignan of Canada.

More on the mission itself in another thread here.

 

[FJAG]

Interlude:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10163110227650790&set=gm.3054890654543998&type=3&theater&ifg=1

;D

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Duffel blog responds

https://www.duffelblog.com/2020/01/martyrdom-tourism/?utm_campaign=coschedule&utm_source=facebook_page&utm_medium=Duffel%20Blog&utm_content=Iranian%20tourist%20killed%20by%20American%20strike%20in%20Baghdad&fbclid=IwAR1JftH89xDZvXirJpxQHpifQoWug_08kyyz0IhfsEAuRYxCsxLEIWLl3Xo

 

[Infanteer]

Interlude:

;D

Everyone on milnet.ca already has!

 

[brihard]

‘Iran will be hit very fast and very hard’: Trump says US ‘targeting’ 52 sites if Tehran retaliates to Soleimani killing

]‘Iran will be hit very fast and very hard’: Trump says US ‘targeting’ 52 sites if Tehran retaliates to Soleimani killing
‘Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader,’ says US president

President Donald Trump has announced that the US has identified 52 Iranian targets that will be struck if Tehran launches an attack in retaliation for the killing of Qassem Soleimani.

In a series of tweets, the US president warned leaders in Tehran against following through on their threats to avenge the death of Soleimani, who was killed by a US airstrike on Thursday.

He said: “Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently hundreds of Iranian protesters.

“He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years.

“Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!”

Mr Trump sent a formal notification to congress under the War Powers Act on Saturday of the drone strike that killed the head of Iran’s elite Quds force, General ​Qassem Soleimani.

The notification, required by law within 48 hours of the introduction of American forces into an armed conflict or a situation that could lead to war, has to be signed and sent to congress.

It comes after the US president ordered a drone strike on Mr Soleimani which killed him and several others near Baghdad’s international airport.

Iran has vowed a “harsh vengeance” in retaliation to the assassination.

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has urged “all parties” to de-escalate the situation – although he said the US was “entitled to defend itself”.

After speaking to his US counterpart Mark Esper, Mr Wallace said American forces have been “repeatedly attacked by Iranian-backed militia” in Iraq during “the last few months”.

He said: “General Soleimani has been at the heart of the use of proxies to undermine neighbouring sovereign nations and target Iran’s enemies.

“Under international law the United States is entitled to defend itself against those posing an imminent threat to their citizens.”

Royal Navy warships HMS Montrose and HMS Defender have been deployed to the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf to guide British-flagged vessels through the key oil passage.

The defence secretary said the government “will take all necessary steps to protect our ships and citizens at this time”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-news-war-trump-twitter-war-ww3-52-targets-latest-news-a9270796.html

US has raised. Time to see if Iran will call or fold. It's an uncharacteristic use of symbolism by the US to tie the number of targets to the number of hostages Iran took back in the day- interesting play.

I hope, I badly hope, that Iran blinks at least enough that the US can ignore the inevitable minor stings that Iran probably cannot fully control. There's gonna be a blend of blowback from Iran as well as from Iraqi players on this. What I'm afraid of is Iran saying 'bring it on', and pushing the escalation up an order of magnitude. America seems determined in this round of exchanges to deliver reprisals an order of magnitude greater than the Iranian attacks provoking them. I hope we don't have to see Trump tested on his lines in the sand and what they mean...

I'm very curious about the explicit mention of targets that are significant to Iran's 'culture'. That's an odd choice of wording, and probably quite deliberate give the thought that has gone in to other parts of this threat. It's concerning.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I hope this is just posturing, especially given Trump's penchant for hyperbole....

 

[Eye In The Sky]

They are always high-readiness. The 82nd maintains a BCT at high readiness at all times. It's also helpful that they forces they need right now in the Middle East right now are light infantry to help augment the facility security forces. The 82nd is not designed to be the front line in a shooting war against Iran. Posturing them forward puts enough troops in the area to safeguard infrastructure, this is not an offensive move.

They're at ASAB (or were)...https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/01/02/emergency-army-deployment-first-new-paratrooper-response-force.html

The 82nd is required to keep one battalion of the ready brigade on alert to deploy within 18 hours after notification.

There's a few other stories linked on that webpage as well...rocket attacks in a few places, Marines heading towards the area....