Colin Parkinson
Army.ca Myth
- Reaction score
- 12,004
- Points
- 1,160
Iraq was always doomed to another war, either external or civil. It was being held together by brute force and terror. Once Saddam dies, it is very likely it would start to unravel, most likely into a civil war. Looking at the history of regime change in Iraq, looting is a feature not a bug. Had the US not invaded, then the US would have eventually withdrawn most of it's military from the region, at which point Saddam would boot the UN inspectors out. France, Russia and China were all vying for access to Iraq's oil fields, all of whom were owed billions for war material, so expect a surge in revenue going into his coffers. Saddam would need to rearm quickly, the fastest way would have been chemical weapons, followed by a restart of his nuclear program, likley enlisting help from Pakistan's Khan and North Korea. The Revolutionary Guard would rearm first, followed by security services and finally the army. By now assuming he is still alive, he would be announcing some form of nuclear capability or intent to do so. It's also likley he would be seeking assistance from Russia for AD systems, etc. Saddam would be quite busy with Obama and Putin, throwing his support to Putin, at the same time Iran would be building it's forces along the western border and interfering in the US Afghanistan efforts even more than it has. Iraq would then point out to KSA and the US intelligence services that he can be a useful counterweight to Iran, who would reluctantly either support or at least not hinder him. It's very possible that Saddam surviving might actually spur a nuclear arms race in the region. Iraq could not afford to face a nuclear armed Iran (or vis versa), without some similar ability to respond and Iraq could not count on any support from his neighbours thanks to his repeated attacks and invasions.
Would someone like Obama have maintained a no fly zone for the Shia's, particularly with Iran becoming more aggressive in Afghanistan? Saddam would also be likely to want to break Shia's leadership, so expect a upswing of oppression there. Saddam would be quite old with his family manoeuvring to take over, while other factions within the Baathist do the same, all-while attempting to survive purges from an increasingly paranoid Saddam.
Would someone like Obama have maintained a no fly zone for the Shia's, particularly with Iran becoming more aggressive in Afghanistan? Saddam would also be likely to want to break Shia's leadership, so expect a upswing of oppression there. Saddam would be quite old with his family manoeuvring to take over, while other factions within the Baathist do the same, all-while attempting to survive purges from an increasingly paranoid Saddam.
