- Reaction score
- 8,339
- Points
- 1,160
Part II
Left Flank: Turkey
In addition to the aforementioned problems with the PKK and the build up by the Turkish Army on the Kurdish border Turkey has other problems.
The Islamic government and the Seculars, strongly backed by the Army, don’t get along. There is a political and constitutional struggle under way with mass demonstrations in Istanbul against the government. Unfortunately for government propagandists its support base is dispersed through out the hinterlands and can only get to the cameras in Istanbul over roads controlled by the Army.
Perhaps that is why the Government has only invited the Army to take what measures it sees fit on the border. If it gave an order to assault into Iraq would the Army obey it? Which is a greater threat to the Army? The Kurds, the Islamists or loss of “contact” with the Americans?
Interestingly, by moving to the Iraqi border the Turks may also be close to the Syrian border.
Left Flank: Lebanon
The big news out of Lebanon is the fact that the Hariri Investigation is going ahead, much to the chagrin of Syria. Despite a successful dodge last summer by employing Hezbollah against Israel, and an unsuccessful attempt this summer by inserting a group of Al-Qaeda foreigners into Lebanon. The investigation will proceed. Assad is apparently annoyed and suggesting a dire future for Lebanon.
The “foreigners” are a few hundred Wahhabists with ties to Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan and the other usual suspects. What is most interesting though is that Lebanon is claiming to have captured a double agent with both Syrian and Al Qaeda ties as well as a lot of intelligence connecting Syria and the group of “foreigners” that seem to have taken the name Fatah – Al Qaeda. At least some of them are believed to be Jordanian Palestinians that have splintered from the Palestinian Fatah and are also geographically associated with the late Al-Zarqawi.
Meanwhile in all of this Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah, are being vewwy, vewwy quiet. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that the French troops sitting on top of their bunkers in Southern Lebanon have a new Commander. I have no doubt that the French troops will shoot whoever they are told to shoot. And Sarkozy is leaving little doubt of where he stands.
As are the Americans (supplying military aid to the Lebanese Army) and as importantly, if not moreso, the Arabs are supplying moral support to the Army that is seen to be Christian dominated. Another group that is notable by their absence are the Palestinians in the camps in Lebanon.
Left Flank: Israel/Palestine
Over the border in Israel/Palestine/West Bank/Gaza the usual chaos continues with some minor nuances. Hamas seems to have worn out its welcome on the street. Fatah and Hamas are fighting in the streets. Israel’s actions are supporting Fatah (the locals) against Hamas (the Syrian supported locals). They are arresting or killing Hamas officials. Egypt is also supporting Fatah and thus implicitly supporting Israel. Hamas, and Syria, can’t really expect any let up because while Olmert is under pressure to do more his rivals (Netanyahu and Barak) are even more inclined than him to be hawks.
Which brings us to Syria itself.
Left Flank: Syria
As noted previously Syria seems none too pleased about the Hariri investigation going ahead. Apparently it was deserted at the UN by Russia and China, who decided to abstain. The turn-around vote seems to have been France’s. With Sarkozy in charge now it seems that the veto count is 3-2 for the West.
The old Frenchman seems to be heading for a date with the judges in France for past indiscretions. That trial could be interesting – but there again maybe not – one of his co-conspirators (tried, convicted, sentenced and served) Alain Juppe is now Sarkozy’s Environment Minister. By the way Sarkozy used to be an “associate” of Chirac’s as well. Some things are better left unsaid.
Interestingly one of the abstentions by the non-permanent members of the Security Council was by South Africa: the same country that routinely comes between Zimbabwe and sanctions. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is a Chinese client of very long standing.
And as if this isn’t enough yet another Al Qaeda clone has sprung up. This time targeting the Alawites and Druze of Syria as apostates even more vile than Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, Jews and Shia (I do hope I have the order of vileness correct – I wouldn’t want to offend anyone). Unfortunately for President Assad – he and his clan are Alawites.
I guess that is the problem with franchising. Unless you have strong contracts with strong enforcement you never know who will end up using your brand name. A sure way to lose market share.
For a change of pace we will shift to the right flank countries.
Right Flank: Pakistan
India and Pakistan are still juggling Kashmir (although now it seems China might want to get back into the game directly – more later).
Poor old Musharraf seems to be being assaulted by Judges, Lawyers, Punjabis and Sindis for being too Islamic and the ISI and the Pashtuns for not being Islamic enough. The Baluchis don’t want to be Pakistanis (or Iranians) at all. And the mountains, including the Pashtuns, are as they ever were. Ungovernable.
Riots in the streets. Assassination attempts. Loss of influence in Afghanistan. That Chinese port at Gwadar is looking more tenuous by the day.
Right Flank: Afghanistan
North and West stable. Eastern mountains a mess. The South in the process of being pacified. At least there is a functioning plan for three-quarters of the country.
The Taliban and Warlords will likely fold when they decide, like the Sheikhs of Iraq, that they can no longer afford the additional costs associated with doing business in an unsettled environment. Progress is being made village by village.
NATO is having to move out to try and secure the borders.
Right Flank: Pashtunistan
As noted the mountains are chaotic but even here change is happening. Afghan friendly Pashtuns appear to be pushing back against ISI support Taliban Pashtuns in the mountains and towns claimed by Pakistan. More troubles for Musharraf than Karzai.
And then back to the Centre.
Centre: Iran
Ahmadinejad is the face of Iran. Unfortunately his party couldn’t carry local elections. He also has problems with support in the Council of Guardians. His parliament voted to reduce his term in office from five years to four. Not exactly an endorsement. In parts of Iraq he can’t fill a stadium even when the schools are turned out for him.
Internally he has students and teachers demonstrating against laws on campus, labour demonstrating against high unemployment, women demonstrating against the crackdown on attire, people generally demonstrating against high gas prices and corruption and, of course, he has to deal with border unrest.
He has Baluchis to the east, Arabs to the south, Kurds and Turkmen to the north, not to mention the displaced Afghan refugees Iran has been sheltering these past years. Apparently the refugees have become more trouble than they are worth and are being returned to an Afghanistan not ready to receive them. I believe the Pakistanis are doing something the same in the east of Afghanistan.
Externally his allies Syria (Hamas) and Hezbollah are nowhere near as useful as they have been and it looks like a whole bunch of people in Iraq are in the process of going "hands up". Even Sadr and Hakami are proving unreliable.
In the middle of all of this his ambassador gets invited to the one thing he has been waiting for: a face to face meeting with an American ambassador. 27 years and his ambassador finally gets an invite.
I wonder if coffee was served. The fact that the Theatre Commander, Admiral Fallon, arranged an old-fashioned display of gun-boat diplomacy by stuffing two carriers (Stennis and Nimitz) along with the Bonhomme Richard through the Straits of Hormuz suggests “maybe not”.
That and the fact that there was that “leak” about the President authorizing “covert activities short of lethal” by the CIA suggests it wasn’t necessarily friendly. The Iranians seem to be taking it seriously. They arrested three Iranians with American passports as spies, claiming they were working for George Soros and trying to stage another “Velvet Revolution” (see Czechoslovakia, Bosnia, Georgia, Ukraine and Lebanon for examples – primary tactic: lots of flags and good looking young girls – hey, that fits with enforcing a coverup by Iranian girls – they are more deadly than guns).
I would suggest that Iran is being pressed on all fronts. It doesn’t have the cash reserves to compete with the US in the long haul (and neither do its supporters).
Consequently there is little they can do except make loud noises to little real effect. Remember the last act of the invasion of Iraq: Comical Ali denying the presence of Americans in Baghdad as a Bradley drove along the riverbank behind him.
Which brings us to the Support.
Support: Russia
Russia sat out the Hariri decision. I wonder if things would have gone the same way with Chirac calling the shots? Would it be too blatant to outright oppose “the west” without the cover of France?
What would Russia do in the event that it found itself to be losing influence? Might it resort to making loud noises? Threatening a new arms race? Threatening to withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty?
Would those noises become louder if there seemed the likelihood that they weren’t going to be able to cash in on those Kyoto Carbon Credits after all? Now Europe and Russia are not of one mind and on this issue China (and India) find themselves aligned with the US.
Support: China
And like Russia, China, Chirac’s other good pal, sat out the Hariri decision. And it took South Africa with it. Unlike Russia, I don’t believe that China is inclined to become noisy when thwarted. I seem to recall either Mao or Sun Tzu advising to advance with steel until you encounter steel, then retire. I think that China’s likely response to a set back would be to gracefully retire and wait for the next opportunity.
However, just to remind the neighbours to maintain good manners, and possibly to redirect some pent up military tension at home, they seem to be rattling sabres with the Indians in Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, not to mention ongoing activity by Maoists in Nepal.
Summation:
As stated in the title – this may be a pollyannaish view of the current state of affairs – it leaves the US and the West with a fairly good looking hand – if they have the time to play it.
Personally I think that the true tipping point occurred on May 25 with the vote on the supplementary bill on war funding.
The House voted 280 to 142 in favour of George Bush.
The Senate voted 80 to 14 in favour of George Bush.
Whatever the Sturm and Drang in the press might be, whatever games presidential candidates might play, I believe that the power brokers in the US delivered a cold shower to the power brokers in the opposing camps.
The opposition believed that by turning the people they could turn the state. That is the essence of “true” democracy.
That is democracy as Cindy Sheehan and Moveon.org understood it.
However the power brokers in the US demonstrated the difference between mob rule, which the enemies of the US believed ran the country, and a functioning, managed, democracy, where the institutions are in place to ensure that the security of the nation comes first, last and always.
And that strength, I believe, people like Al Duri, Khamenei and Putin understand. Cindy may not understand the value of that strength, but she understands the strength – and has gone home.
Thank you for allowing me the pleasure of speculating.
Cheers.
Left Flank: Turkey
In addition to the aforementioned problems with the PKK and the build up by the Turkish Army on the Kurdish border Turkey has other problems.
The Islamic government and the Seculars, strongly backed by the Army, don’t get along. There is a political and constitutional struggle under way with mass demonstrations in Istanbul against the government. Unfortunately for government propagandists its support base is dispersed through out the hinterlands and can only get to the cameras in Istanbul over roads controlled by the Army.
Perhaps that is why the Government has only invited the Army to take what measures it sees fit on the border. If it gave an order to assault into Iraq would the Army obey it? Which is a greater threat to the Army? The Kurds, the Islamists or loss of “contact” with the Americans?
Interestingly, by moving to the Iraqi border the Turks may also be close to the Syrian border.
Left Flank: Lebanon
The big news out of Lebanon is the fact that the Hariri Investigation is going ahead, much to the chagrin of Syria. Despite a successful dodge last summer by employing Hezbollah against Israel, and an unsuccessful attempt this summer by inserting a group of Al-Qaeda foreigners into Lebanon. The investigation will proceed. Assad is apparently annoyed and suggesting a dire future for Lebanon.
The “foreigners” are a few hundred Wahhabists with ties to Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan and the other usual suspects. What is most interesting though is that Lebanon is claiming to have captured a double agent with both Syrian and Al Qaeda ties as well as a lot of intelligence connecting Syria and the group of “foreigners” that seem to have taken the name Fatah – Al Qaeda. At least some of them are believed to be Jordanian Palestinians that have splintered from the Palestinian Fatah and are also geographically associated with the late Al-Zarqawi.
Meanwhile in all of this Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah, are being vewwy, vewwy quiet. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that the French troops sitting on top of their bunkers in Southern Lebanon have a new Commander. I have no doubt that the French troops will shoot whoever they are told to shoot. And Sarkozy is leaving little doubt of where he stands.
As are the Americans (supplying military aid to the Lebanese Army) and as importantly, if not moreso, the Arabs are supplying moral support to the Army that is seen to be Christian dominated. Another group that is notable by their absence are the Palestinians in the camps in Lebanon.
Left Flank: Israel/Palestine
Over the border in Israel/Palestine/West Bank/Gaza the usual chaos continues with some minor nuances. Hamas seems to have worn out its welcome on the street. Fatah and Hamas are fighting in the streets. Israel’s actions are supporting Fatah (the locals) against Hamas (the Syrian supported locals). They are arresting or killing Hamas officials. Egypt is also supporting Fatah and thus implicitly supporting Israel. Hamas, and Syria, can’t really expect any let up because while Olmert is under pressure to do more his rivals (Netanyahu and Barak) are even more inclined than him to be hawks.
Which brings us to Syria itself.
Left Flank: Syria
As noted previously Syria seems none too pleased about the Hariri investigation going ahead. Apparently it was deserted at the UN by Russia and China, who decided to abstain. The turn-around vote seems to have been France’s. With Sarkozy in charge now it seems that the veto count is 3-2 for the West.
The old Frenchman seems to be heading for a date with the judges in France for past indiscretions. That trial could be interesting – but there again maybe not – one of his co-conspirators (tried, convicted, sentenced and served) Alain Juppe is now Sarkozy’s Environment Minister. By the way Sarkozy used to be an “associate” of Chirac’s as well. Some things are better left unsaid.
Interestingly one of the abstentions by the non-permanent members of the Security Council was by South Africa: the same country that routinely comes between Zimbabwe and sanctions. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is a Chinese client of very long standing.
And as if this isn’t enough yet another Al Qaeda clone has sprung up. This time targeting the Alawites and Druze of Syria as apostates even more vile than Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, Jews and Shia (I do hope I have the order of vileness correct – I wouldn’t want to offend anyone). Unfortunately for President Assad – he and his clan are Alawites.
I guess that is the problem with franchising. Unless you have strong contracts with strong enforcement you never know who will end up using your brand name. A sure way to lose market share.
For a change of pace we will shift to the right flank countries.
Right Flank: Pakistan
India and Pakistan are still juggling Kashmir (although now it seems China might want to get back into the game directly – more later).
Poor old Musharraf seems to be being assaulted by Judges, Lawyers, Punjabis and Sindis for being too Islamic and the ISI and the Pashtuns for not being Islamic enough. The Baluchis don’t want to be Pakistanis (or Iranians) at all. And the mountains, including the Pashtuns, are as they ever were. Ungovernable.
Riots in the streets. Assassination attempts. Loss of influence in Afghanistan. That Chinese port at Gwadar is looking more tenuous by the day.
Right Flank: Afghanistan
North and West stable. Eastern mountains a mess. The South in the process of being pacified. At least there is a functioning plan for three-quarters of the country.
The Taliban and Warlords will likely fold when they decide, like the Sheikhs of Iraq, that they can no longer afford the additional costs associated with doing business in an unsettled environment. Progress is being made village by village.
NATO is having to move out to try and secure the borders.
Right Flank: Pashtunistan
As noted the mountains are chaotic but even here change is happening. Afghan friendly Pashtuns appear to be pushing back against ISI support Taliban Pashtuns in the mountains and towns claimed by Pakistan. More troubles for Musharraf than Karzai.
And then back to the Centre.
Centre: Iran
Ahmadinejad is the face of Iran. Unfortunately his party couldn’t carry local elections. He also has problems with support in the Council of Guardians. His parliament voted to reduce his term in office from five years to four. Not exactly an endorsement. In parts of Iraq he can’t fill a stadium even when the schools are turned out for him.
Internally he has students and teachers demonstrating against laws on campus, labour demonstrating against high unemployment, women demonstrating against the crackdown on attire, people generally demonstrating against high gas prices and corruption and, of course, he has to deal with border unrest.
He has Baluchis to the east, Arabs to the south, Kurds and Turkmen to the north, not to mention the displaced Afghan refugees Iran has been sheltering these past years. Apparently the refugees have become more trouble than they are worth and are being returned to an Afghanistan not ready to receive them. I believe the Pakistanis are doing something the same in the east of Afghanistan.
Externally his allies Syria (Hamas) and Hezbollah are nowhere near as useful as they have been and it looks like a whole bunch of people in Iraq are in the process of going "hands up". Even Sadr and Hakami are proving unreliable.
In the middle of all of this his ambassador gets invited to the one thing he has been waiting for: a face to face meeting with an American ambassador. 27 years and his ambassador finally gets an invite.
I wonder if coffee was served. The fact that the Theatre Commander, Admiral Fallon, arranged an old-fashioned display of gun-boat diplomacy by stuffing two carriers (Stennis and Nimitz) along with the Bonhomme Richard through the Straits of Hormuz suggests “maybe not”.
That and the fact that there was that “leak” about the President authorizing “covert activities short of lethal” by the CIA suggests it wasn’t necessarily friendly. The Iranians seem to be taking it seriously. They arrested three Iranians with American passports as spies, claiming they were working for George Soros and trying to stage another “Velvet Revolution” (see Czechoslovakia, Bosnia, Georgia, Ukraine and Lebanon for examples – primary tactic: lots of flags and good looking young girls – hey, that fits with enforcing a coverup by Iranian girls – they are more deadly than guns).
I would suggest that Iran is being pressed on all fronts. It doesn’t have the cash reserves to compete with the US in the long haul (and neither do its supporters).
Consequently there is little they can do except make loud noises to little real effect. Remember the last act of the invasion of Iraq: Comical Ali denying the presence of Americans in Baghdad as a Bradley drove along the riverbank behind him.
Which brings us to the Support.
Support: Russia
Russia sat out the Hariri decision. I wonder if things would have gone the same way with Chirac calling the shots? Would it be too blatant to outright oppose “the west” without the cover of France?
What would Russia do in the event that it found itself to be losing influence? Might it resort to making loud noises? Threatening a new arms race? Threatening to withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty?
Would those noises become louder if there seemed the likelihood that they weren’t going to be able to cash in on those Kyoto Carbon Credits after all? Now Europe and Russia are not of one mind and on this issue China (and India) find themselves aligned with the US.
Support: China
And like Russia, China, Chirac’s other good pal, sat out the Hariri decision. And it took South Africa with it. Unlike Russia, I don’t believe that China is inclined to become noisy when thwarted. I seem to recall either Mao or Sun Tzu advising to advance with steel until you encounter steel, then retire. I think that China’s likely response to a set back would be to gracefully retire and wait for the next opportunity.
However, just to remind the neighbours to maintain good manners, and possibly to redirect some pent up military tension at home, they seem to be rattling sabres with the Indians in Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, not to mention ongoing activity by Maoists in Nepal.
Summation:
As stated in the title – this may be a pollyannaish view of the current state of affairs – it leaves the US and the West with a fairly good looking hand – if they have the time to play it.
Personally I think that the true tipping point occurred on May 25 with the vote on the supplementary bill on war funding.
The House voted 280 to 142 in favour of George Bush.
The Senate voted 80 to 14 in favour of George Bush.
Whatever the Sturm and Drang in the press might be, whatever games presidential candidates might play, I believe that the power brokers in the US delivered a cold shower to the power brokers in the opposing camps.
The opposition believed that by turning the people they could turn the state. That is the essence of “true” democracy.
That is democracy as Cindy Sheehan and Moveon.org understood it.
However the power brokers in the US demonstrated the difference between mob rule, which the enemies of the US believed ran the country, and a functioning, managed, democracy, where the institutions are in place to ensure that the security of the nation comes first, last and always.
And that strength, I believe, people like Al Duri, Khamenei and Putin understand. Cindy may not understand the value of that strength, but she understands the strength – and has gone home.
Thank you for allowing me the pleasure of speculating.
Cheers.
