Hamas invaded Israel 2023

[BrianWL]

I suspect things might be different this time around. In the past the goal was to keep a lid on the violence while more or less maintaining the status quo.

Hamas has proven now that Gaza and the West Bank are in effect perpetual launching points for devastating attacks on Israel that they really have no way to effectively deter or prevent. This may be the final straw for Israel to push the Palestinians out of the territories and formally annex them for Israel.

This would then push the Palestinian problem on to the neighbouring states. Attacks on Israel would no longer be "uprisings" within the occupied territories but would be attacks across international borders. The governments of Jordan, Egypt (and to a lesser extent Lebanon and Syria) would have an interest in avoiding cross border attacks because they would run the risk of inciting a war between them and Israel.

Sympathy for the Palestinians in these countries would likely wane over time like it did for the PLO in Lebanon as their cause would distract from the long term goals of the host countries.

Obviously Israel would take a huge hit internationally if it were to conduct mass expulsions of fighting age Palestinian males but for them it is an existential fight. If they don't find a more stable solution to the situation it will only get worse over time as the Palestinian population is growing at a much faster rate than the Israeli population

the border countries have accepted Palestinian refugees since 1948. pretty sure they will not want millions more in 2023.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Xx

 

[Kirkhill]

I’m hoping every Western Nation observed the folks in their countries cheering for Hamas.
I’d be deporting those back ASAP.

RTU or previous predicament was my thought as well.

Then start targeted killing of the leadership of nations that support Hamas and their military infrastructure.

 

[GR66]

That does not appear to be the case.

Population paralleling.

View attachment 80543

Fertility rates converging down.

View attachment 80544

Those stats are for the State of Israel and the Palestinian Territories. It doesn't account for the fact that there is a significant portion of the Israeli population that is Arab (21%). That percentage is growing as Arabs within Israel have a higher birth rate than Jews within Israel.

From Wikipedia:

During the 1990s, the Jewish population growth rate was about 3% per year, as a result of massive immigration to Israel, primarily from the republics of the former Soviet Union. There is also a very high population growth rate among certain Jewish groups, especially adherents of Orthodox Judaism. The growth rate of the Arab population in Israel is 2.2%, while the growth rate of the Jewish population in Israel is 1.8%. The growth rate of the Arab population has slowed from 3.8% in 1999 to 2.2% in 2013, and for the Jewish population, the growth rate declined from 2.7% to its lowest rate of 1.4% in 2005. Due to a rise in fertility of the Jewish population since 1995 and immigration, the growth rate has since risen to 1.8%.[28]

Birth rate​

2021 :

• Total: 19.7 births/1,000 population
• Jews and others: 19.1 births/1,000 population
• Muslims: 23.4 births/1,000 population
• Christians: 13.3 births/1,000 population
• Druze: 15.8 births/1,000 population

[edited to add link to the Wikipedia article]

 

[Underway]

I'm curious how many of those are awaiting immigration status to either became a PR or citizen....

Likely zero.

 

[Kirkhill]

It doesn’t.
But you can’t simply wipe out areas.

You need to be precise in your applications of force. Or you are simply the monster that Hamas etc claim you are.

Worse, I believe, you end up creating more monsters to face you.

 

[medicineman]

Part of me has problems believing that this wasn't foreseen - Israel has worked diligently to ensure no repeats of the '72 Olympics and Yom Kippur in '73. Accidentally on purpose downplaying/ignoring SIGINT/HUMINT to allow this to happen would give some moral high ground to Israel to move with a sense of finality into Gaza. From the Hamas side, they knew/know that the response to this was going to be Hell unleashed - so kind of a win/win for both sides, since laying the shoeleather to all Palestinians in Gaza would push the buffer back further AND if Israel doesn't show some semblance of restraint in targeting, will show the world what Hamas/PLO splinters claim of Israel being tyrannical to be true.

Uncaffienated $0.02 FWIW.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Some stunning visuals here, I imagine a lot of change in border and base Defense tactics and technologies will change in Israel: https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1710980029977424295?s=20

 

[YZT580]

It depends on what you consider PR. For them this is a PR win. The Arab world hates Israel and never has cared much for the ‘rules for armed conflict’.

The UN has made it clear no matter how many crimes Israel commits they aren’t going to sanction them or hold them accountable. So for Hamas they need to look elsewhere. They aren’t trying to win over the West, the West has nothing for them.

Abductions make sense for swaps, shields, etc. at the end of the day playing ‘fair’ is a luxury afforded to those winning. When you are a group like Hamas which is severely limited in resources, technology, and training, fighting Israel one of the best equipped and trained military in the world, if you try to play fair it only gets you killed quick.

I don't know where you get off thinking that they are limited at all. Someone has supplied the rockets, explosives, munitions, coordination, and technical expertise that they have just demonstrated. There have been numerous votes in the UN that have totally censored Israel whilst giving Hamas a bye. Most of the money sent by the UN goes into furthering the war. Learned that from the UNICEF people in Riyadh years ago. There is no justification whatsoever for slaughtering innocents; not in Ukraine, not in Myanmar, not in Afghanistan and finally not in Israel.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

It is a tough problem, to be sure.

You have Hamas extremists on one side, bent on a nihilistic extermination of the Jewish state and Jews everywhere.

On the other side, you have Jewish extremists, creating illegal settlements which the IDF has to defacto defend and then baiting Palestinians wherever possible.

In the middle, you have ordinary Jews, Palestinians and Arabs just trying to get through life.

No good will come of this. The Palestinians will suffer horrendously in the short term, but the biggest long term effect maybe that which the Israelis inflict upon themselves in terms of Moral damage.

 

[Kirkhill]

Building settlements in occupied territories by forcibly evicting / murdering residents is a war crime. You said (paraphrased) that war crimes mean you can turn cities into glass.

Either both sides need to be held to account for their actions, or both sides can do whatever the hell they want.

I'd prefer both to be held to account.

General agreement.

Hamas is a non-military organization conducting an incursion or raid with no obvious military objectives in mind. It does look like, as @brihard described it, a mass shooter event, or rather multiple mass shooter events.

I agree that the correct response to a crime is arrest, detention, trial and incarceration or execution.

Whose courts, judges and police? Whose camps and prisons?

Long Kesh and the Maze come to mind. Detention camps on Cyprus and in Malaya. Gaza.

So, is this a prison riot?

 

[BrianWL]

It is a tough problem, to be sure.

You have Hamas extremists on one side, bent on a nihilistic extermination of the Jewish state and Jews everywhere.

On the other side, you have Jewish extremists, creating illegal settlements which the IDF has to defacto defend and then baiting Palestinians wherever possible.

In the middle, you have ordinary Jews, Palestinians and Arabs just trying to get through life.

No good will come of this. The Palestinians will suffer horrendously in the short term, but the biggest long term effect maybe that which the Israelis inflict upon themselves in terms of Moral damage.

the always problem. the extremists on either side will keep this thing bubbling and blowing up forever it seems.

 

[Happy Guy]

This will not end well for both sides and potentially the world.

This situation is complex and interwoven with politics, religions, personalities and history - who was here first?

I will not go into the history of the creation of the State of Israel on the former lands of the Palestinian territory. What is essentially it meant was that the Palestinians loss their lands and they continue to lose their land to the illegal action of the right wing Israeli settlers.

The State of Israel is a Jewish state. This means that Palestinian Arabs, Palestinian Christians and other groups living in Israel, they technically have the same rights as an Israeli Jew.

Hamas is a terrorist organization, based in the Gaza, and is sponsored by Iran who provides it with funds and material and from private donors and expatriates. Its calls for the destruction of Israel and the establishment of an Islamic society in historic Palestine.

I am not a political scientist but I have been deployed to this region before and I have observed both sides and how they interact with each other. The barrier walls were built as a reaction to the knifing and bombings by the Palestinians during the second intifada. The walls were meant to keep the Israeli Jews safe and confine the Palestinians to their cities, towns, territory. What this meant to the Palestinians was a severe restriction to their freedom of movement, freedom of press and ability to earn a living (economy) being highly restricted and regulated by the Israeli State. In short - under the constant thumb and surveillance of the Isralei governemnt. The walls have also prevent ordinary Jews and Palestinians from daily contact and interacting with each other. I was talking to a Jewish physiotherapist who told me that before the barriers came up, the Jews would frequent Bethlehem, a Palestinian town, for sales in the markets and their would sort of get along and understand each other. Now Jews normally can't enter this town and Palestinians are restricted in this town unless they have a legal reason to leave the enclosed city.

Both sides are fighting for their right to exist in this world. Both sides believe that they are right and have God on their side. The hatred between the hard liners in both groups are visceral and rooted in religious beliefs, racism, frustration - why can't they leave us alone, anxiety - will they attack us?, and so forth. There is a strong desire for peace by the ordinary people on both sides, but .... at the same time they cannot co-exist like this.

Another wild card is the hard right fundamental American Christians who want to see the second coming of Christ and are actively funding the Israelis, who accept this funding with condescending bemusement. The Christians believe that the current situation will lead to having the Book of Revelations come true and thus bring forth a new dawn of Christianity with Jesus.

I won't go into what I have seened and experienced in this world. I have seen the good (humanity) and the bad (literally just evil) from both sides.
I don't know why Hamas is doing and commiting actrocites but I know that the Israelis will swiftly retatiate and they will hit hard. They will put even more pressure on the Palestinians - repression. I am afraid that the repression of Palestinians will force the neighbouring Arab Islamic countries to act, which in turn will pressure the Western countries to further support Israel. Thus the cycle of violence and hatre continues and will escalate to heighten international tensions and then possibily a potential international conflict in this region.

 

[Spencer100]

Part of the problem is language. Take Isreali "settlers" ....that puts the image of wagons and people moving the Indians out in the western mind. In Israel it is closer to developers in Mississauga building houses and condos having problems with the land titles. And there are problems with every land title there. The Settlers are not pushing out anyone they were gone 75 years ago.

 

[GR66]

Some stunning visuals here, I imagine a lot of change in border and base Defense tactics and technologies will change in Israel: https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1710980029977424295?s=20

With regard to the para-gliders in the video. One commentator noted that obviously that part of the attack would require training and the tiny size of the Gaza Strip means there is no way it could have been done there without the Israelis seeing it. I bet they will be looking very hard to see where it did take place.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Looks like some of the USN is parking close...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711060846091112584

 

[Czech_pivo]

That does not appear to be the case.

Population paralleling.

View attachment 80543

Fertility rates converging down.

View attachment 80544

Any chance of a breakdown between Gaza and the West Bank in terms of births per woman?

 

[Eaglelord17]

I don't know where you get off thinking that they are limited at all. Someone has supplied the rockets, explosives, munitions, coordination, and technical expertise that they have just demonstrated. There have been numerous votes in the UN that have totally censored Israel whilst giving Hamas a bye. Most of the money sent by the UN goes into furthering the war. Learned that from the UNICEF people in Riyadh years ago. There is no justification whatsoever for slaughtering innocents; not in Ukraine, not in Myanmar, not in Afghanistan and finally not in Israel.

So your telling me that Hamas is a peer to peer force with the IDF?

Limited means they do not have the same capabilities of their opponent. The Viet Cong were limited in equipment in comparison to the US. The Afghanis were limited in their equipment in comparison to the West.

Just because they had some rockets and managed to coordinate a attack doesn’t mean they are anywhere near the same playing field as their opponent. The IDF has the capability to wipe them out with very minimal casualties on their side all things considered.

The occasional ‘bad Israel please stop’ from the UN means nothing. The South Africa treatment would do a lot to getting them to change their actions.

Part of the problem is language. Take Isreali "settlers" ....that puts the image of wagons and people moving the Indians out in the western mind. In Israel it is closer to developers in Mississauga building houses and condos having problems with the land titles. And there are problems with every land title there. The Settlers are not pushing out anyone they were gone 75 years ago.

You are severely misinformed on what the ‘settlers’ are doing. They are actively driving people from their homes and bulldozing them. If the Palestinians resist in any way the IDF steps in or the settlers themselves kill them.

In particular it has ramped up drastically recently with the re-election of Netanyahu.

And for the record I am mostly pro-Israel, I just don’t give them a blank cheque for their misdeeds.

 

[GR66]

Any chance of a breakdown between Gaza and the West Bank in terms of births per woman?

Again according to Wikipedia:

Gaza - 2.02% growth rate and 27.67/1000 births per woman
West Bank - 1.69% growth rate and 24.42/1000 births per woman

compared to:

Israeli Jews - 1.8% growth rate and 19.1/1000 births per woman

Part of the reason for Jews in Israel having a higher population growth rate while having lower birth rates is immigration (what foreigners are choosing to move to Gaza/the West Bank?)

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711061385189232707

Some foreigners getting caught up in it including a Canadian