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Global Warming/Climate Change Super Thread

From the Don't Have Enough to Do department, here is an analysis showing that global temperatures track the increase in US postal rates since 1880:

http://joannenova.com.au/2009/05/03/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/

 
>What happens if one country decides to start geoengineering on its own?

Sink their ships.  Shoot down their air and space craft.  Sabotage their engines.  Shun their trade.  Assassinate their leaders and proponents of geoengineering.

Advocates of geoengineering DO NOT know and CAN NOT predict what all the effects of their meddling will be.  What they propose is to gamble with the lives and wellbeing of all life on this planet, not to undertake risk.
 
Sadly, humans have already been geoengineering for about 5000 years. Should we consider reforestation a hostile act (since that is a form of geoengineering?). What action would you take against a nation or principality that banned the use of ashpalt as a paving material?

A large part of the climate change program is a hostile act designed explicitly to cripple western free market economies and provide for massive transfers of wealth to regimes like Russia. Perhaps we should consider the proper response to the proponents of ideas like Kyoto and "cap and trade".....
 
My point of aim is not the incremental "geoengineering" of people going about their lives.  What is at stake are grand schemes to jolt the climate.
 
Here is a nifty link.

http://www.surfacestations.org/

I know from reviewing some websites and films from climate change skeptics that the urban heat island effect could have a considerable impact on historic climate observations, and that effect would only grow more profound over time. The above link seems to prove the significance of urban sprawl and that climate change numbers have been blindly collated and published without a true adherence to the scientific process by ensuring some degree of uniformity in observations.

I also wonder about the observations that are often cited from before the 20th century and how accurate those thermometers were...
 
May 10, 2009 near Edmonton and there are no leaves on the trees - none, the latest I recall.  They are a week or two late.  The last two winters have been wicked.  So how do we explain the global cooling that comes after global warming?
 
Cooling air temps, cooling oceans, very, very quiet sun, expanding polar ice . . . .  Ya, Al Gore got is soooooooooooo  wrong saying a trace atmospheric gas drives teh climate system. 

Buy long underwear, we are going to need 'em to saty warm.

 
Dennis Ruhl said:
May 10, 2009 near Edmonton and there are no leaves on the trees - none, the latest I recall.  They are a week or two late.  The last two winters have been wicked.  So how do we explain the global cooling that comes after global warming?
Both are natural cycles, driven in my view by a 30 year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We dont' need any geniuses like Gore, or their opposites back in the 1970's who wanted to pour carbon black on the polar ice caps, trying to muck with the climate.
 
Haletown said:
Cooling air temps, cooling oceans, very, very quiet sun, expanding polar ice . . . .  Ya, Al Gore got is soooooooooooo  wrong saying a trace atmospheric gas drives teh climate system. 

Buy long underwear, we are going to need 'em to saty warm.

A friend of mine had an interesting pointed question that i think suits this thread:

How long does the earth have to cool before those who are not scientists stop declaring war on anthropogenic global warming?
 
ACEC said:
A friend of mine had an interesting pointed question that i think suits this thread:

How long does the earth have to cool before those who are not scientists stop declaring war on anthropogenic global warming?

Since they have changed the narrative to "Climate Change",  I'd say the rent seeking scientists will do everything and say anything to keep the gravy train rolling and the public spotlight focused on them for as long as possible, probably many more years.

All those nice trips to Bali to chat about Climate Change, interviews on TV and radio, adoring fans . . . it is a much preferable situation to being unknown professors in forgotten Departments in scattered University campuses and Government labs.  ya, they'll keep it going as long as possible and then some. 

Now if their pensions were tied to the accuracy of their forecasts. . . . it would be all over tomorrow..







 
Dennis Ruhl said:
May 10, 2009 near Edmonton and there are no leaves on the trees - none, the latest I recall.  They are a week or two late.  The last two winters have been wicked.  So how do we explain the global cooling that comes after global warming?

Update - May 20 and it has snowed 6 inches in the last couple days.  The trees normally leaf out the 1st week in May and they are still waiting.  At least 3 weeks late.
 
Jerry Pournelle. Personally, I think Dr Pournell is being too generous in his reading of Energy Secretary Chu, political power/rent seeker probably covers the ground exactly...:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2009/Q2/view572.html#Wednesday

I wish Rush Limbaugh would find himself a physicist advisor. Or at least someone who took college physics. Some of his political analysis of the environmental movement is correct -- see Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy -- but his rant on painting roofs and roads white or at least a lighter color betrays a rather profound misunderstanding. At least this is a misunderstanding: I doubt it's the willful ignorance we get from many of the global warming alarmists. Rush ought to know better, but many of the global warming alarmists do know better.

He asks where the reflected heat from white roads would go. The answer, of course, is that the UV and visible light components of solar radiation would not be absorbed into the road to be turned in to heat but rather returned to outer space, after which we don't really care where it goes. With darker roads and roofs the UV and visible light components are absorbed and become heat. Now some of that heat is re-radiated toward space. If there is water vapor, methane, or CO2 in the atmosphere over the re-radiating surface, then some or all of the IR radiation will be absorbed as heat; this is the theory of CO2-caused global warming. (It's also how greenhouses work, sort of: visible light and UV come in, are absorbed as heat, and the resulting IR is absorbed by the glass before it can get out. (I say sort of because the insulation and lack of wind in the greenhouse plays a very important part of keeping it warm.)

That theory of CO2-caused warming is known to be flawed: Historically, CO2 levels rise after warming, not before, which isn't astonishing given that the oceans are CO2 sinks, and warm liquids hold less dissolved CO2 than cold ones (as you know from leaving a carbonated drink out to go flat). Freeman Dyson points out that water vapor is so much more efficient as a green-house gas than CO2 that CO2 cannot have much effect in any but cold, dry areas.

Limbaugh is right in saying that many of those on the "climate change" bandwagon are actually motivated by rent and power seeking schemes and neither know nor care about the actual science. I doubt that is true of Chu, who is in a very uncomfortable situation. Of course he wants grants for the national laboratories, and to get those he has to sail pretty close to the edge of real science. I'd like to see the national laboratories kept together too. They're national treasures. But I would fund them through a different process rather than making the Energy Secretary dance to political tunes.
 
"He asks where the reflected heat from white roads would go. The answer, of course, is that the UV and visible light components of solar radiation would not be absorbed into the road to be turned in to heat but rather returned to outer space"

Not really.  Energy form the sun enters the atmosphere as shortwave radiation. Soon as it hits something solid, regardless of the color, it changes to long wave radiation - essentially heat.  Whether the heat is absorbed by a black road or roof  - and then slowly released into the atmosphere at night, or hits a white surface and the majority of the heat is absorbed by the atmosphere, all the long wave/heat energy ends up in the atmosphere, where it warms that atmoshpere.

This is just another one of the "Stuck on Stupid" ideas that sounds good but shows a complete non-understanding of atmospheric physics.


And can you imagine white highways here in the Great White North in the middle of winter ?  What road you say, where the hell is it ??

Now that would be fun driving.  Think Saskatchewan in a winter storm :)




 
Energy from the sun enters the atmosphere as photons across a wide range of frequencies, including the visible spectrum.  Every photon not reflected is by definition absorbed by something, and its energy transferred to the matter which composes our planet and atmosphere.  Do you understand this?
 
It's not "Climate Change", it's "Regime Change"

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YzMzMDBkNzYxOGIyMjQ3ZjJjYjA1NjVjOTg4M2U5M2E=

Gaia’s Right
Environmentalism seeks to return us to the age of kings.

By Mark Steyn

According to His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales, we only have 96 months left to save the planet.

I’m impressed. 96 months. Not 95. Not 97. July 2017. Put it in your diary. Usually the warm-mongers stick to the same old drone that we only have ten years left to save the planet. Nice round number. Al Gore said we only have ten years left three-and-a-half years ago, which makes him technically more of a pessimist than the Prince of Wales. Al’s betting that Armageddon kicks in sometime in January 2016 — unless he’s just peddling glib generalities. And, alas, even a prophet of the ecopalypse as precise as His Royal Highness is sometimes prone to this airy-fairy ten-year shtick: In April, Prince Charles predicted that the red squirrel would be extinct “within ten years,” which suggests that, while it may be curtains for man and all his wretched works come summer of 2017, the poor doomed red squirrel will have the best part of two years to frolic and gambol on a ruined landscape.

So, unless you’re a squirrel, don’t start any long books in 95 months’ time, because time is running out! “Time is running out to deal with climate change,” said Steven Guilbeault of Greenpeace in 2006. “Ten years ago, we thought we had a lot of time.”

Really? Ten years ago, we had a lot of time? Funny, that’s not the way I remember it. (“Time is running out for the climate,” said Chris Rose of Greenpeace in 1997.) So what’s to blame for this eternally looming rendezvous with the iceberg of apocalypse? As the British newspaper the Independent reported:

Capitalism and consumerism have brought the world to the brink of economic and environmental collapse, the Prince of Wales has warned. . . . And in a searing indictment on capitalist society, Charles said we can no longer afford consumerism and that the ‘age of convenience’ was over.

He then got in his limo and was driven to his other palace.

It takes a prince, heir to the thrones of Britain and Canada and Australia, Jamaica, Papua New Guinea, and a bunch of other places, to tell it like it is: You pampered consumerists are ruining the joint. In the old days, we didn’t have these kinds of problems. But then Mr. and Mrs. Peasant start remodeling the hovel, adding a rec room and indoor plumbing, replacing the emaciated old nag with a Honda Civic and driving to the mall in it, and next thing you know, instead of just having an extra yard of mead every Boxing Day at the local tavern and adding a couple more pustules to the escutcheon with the local trollop, they begin taking vacations in Florida. When it was just medieval dukes swanking about like that, the planet worked fine: That was “sustainable” consumerism. But now the masses want in. And, once you do that, there goes the global neighborhood.

By contrast, as an example of an exemplary environmentalist, the prince hailed his forebear, King Henry VIII. True, he had a lot of wives, but he did dramatically reduce Anne Boleyn’s carbon footprint.

I always enjoy it when the masks slip and the warm-mongers explicitly demand we adopt a massive Poverty Expansion Program to save the planet. “I don’t think a lot of electricity is a good thing,” said Gar Smith of San Francisco’s Earth Island Institute a few years back. “I have seen villages in Africa that had vibrant culture and great communities that were disrupted and destroyed by the introduction of electricity,” he continued, regretting that African peasants “who used to spend their days and evenings in the streets playing music on their own instruments and sewing clothing for their neighbors on foot-pedal powered sewing machines” are now slumped in front of Desperate Housewives reruns all day long.

One assumes Gar Smith is sincere in his fetishization of bucolic African poverty, with its vibrantly rampant disease and charmingly unspoilt life expectancy in the mid-forties. But when a hereditary prince starts attacking capitalism and pining for the days when a benign sovereign knew what was best for the masses, he gives the real game away. Capitalism is liberating: You’re born a peasant but you don’t have to die one.

You can work hard and get a nice place in the suburbs. If you were a 19th-century Russian peasant and you got to Ellis Island, you’d be living in a tenement on the Lower East Side, but your kids would get an education and move uptown, and your grandkids would be doctors and accountants in Westchester County. And your great-grandchild would be a Harvard-educated environmental activist demanding an end to all this electricity and indoor toilets.

Environmentalism opposes that kind of mobility. It seeks to return us to the age of kings, when the masses are restrained by a privileged elite. Sometimes they will be hereditary monarchs, such as the Prince of Wales. Sometimes they will be merely the gilded princelings of the government apparatus — Barack Obama, Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi. In the old days, they were endowed with absolute authority by God. Today, they’re endowed by Mother Nature, empowered by Gaia to act on her behalf. But the object remains control — to constrain you in a million ways, most of which would never have occurred to Henry VIII, who, unlike the new cap-and-trade bill, was entirely indifferent as to whether your hovel was “energy efficient.”  The old rationale for absolute monarchy — Divine Right — is a tough sell in a democratic age. But the new rationale — Gaia’s Right — has proved surprisingly plausible.

Beginning with FDR, wily statists justified the massive expansion of federal power under ever more elastic definitions of the commerce clause. For Obama-era control freaks, the environment and health care are the commerce clause supersized. They establish the pretext for the regulation of everything: If the government is obligated to cure you of illness, it has an interest in preventing you from getting ill in the first place — by regulating what you eat, how you live, the choices you make from the moment you get up in the morning. Likewise, if everything you do impacts “the environment,” then the environment is an all-purpose umbrella for regulating everything you do. It’s the most convenient and romantic justification for what the title of Paul Rahe’s new book rightly identifies as “soft despotism.”

The good news is that, at this week’s G8 summit, America’s allies would commit only to the fuzziest and most meaningless of environmental goals. Europe has been hit far harder by the economic downturn. When your unemployment rate is 17 percent (as in Spain), “unsustainable growth” is no longer your most pressing problem. The environmental cult is itself a product of what the prince calls the “Age of Convenience”: It’s what you worry about it when you don’t have to worry about jobs or falling house prices or collapsed retirement accounts. Today, as European prime ministers are beginning to figure out, a strategic goal of making things worse when they’re already worse is a much tougher sell.


— Mark Steyn, a National Review columnist, is author of America Alone. © 2009 Mark Steyn
National Review Online -
 
Charlie is a dork & very numerically challenged . . . inbreeding in the royal bloodline perhaps.

As our climate rapidly cools, the Climate Change Scammers are hustling to do as much political damage and in Al Gore's case, get as rich as possible before their ponzi scheme implodes.

Bring on the next Climate Minimum and let's hope its a doozy . . . that way the next time the environmental jihadis dream up some phony scare campaign, nobody will believe them because their integrity will be shot because they promoted the Global Warming Big Lie.
 
It started twenty or so  years ago with Global Warming.  The Warmongers, Climate Hysterics and Gorons said we were all going to die because I use electricity and you drive an F350.

Then the warming stopped, so they channel switched to "Climate Change" . . .  because that is a perfect label - meaningless, but rolls off the tongue and covers all the bases.

Now, with global temperatures falling, the sun that has gone quiet, cooling oceans and expanding polar ice mass, they are still unable to figure out their dumb as a bag of hammers theory about minor changes in a trace atmospheric gas driving our climate system is wrong.

The theory and the resulting models are out of whack with what is really happening.

So now, the tall foreheads, the leading scientists pushing tjhe AGW scam are saying:

"We hypothesize that the established pre-1998 trend is the true forced warming signal, and that the climate system effectively overshot this signal in response to the 1997/98 El Niño. This overshoot is in the process of radiatively dissipating, and the climate will return to its earlier defined, greenhouse gas-forced warming signal. If this hypothesis is correct, the era of consistent record-breaking global mean temperatures will not resume until roughly 2020"

Look at them . . . a picture of scientists who can't handle reality.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/14/real-climate-gives-reason-to-cheer/

Buy long underwear boys & girls, we are going to have some good old fashioned winters.


 
Oh oh, real science is breaking out in all kinds of places:

http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com/2009/08/will-ian-plimer-destroy-planet.html

Will Ian Plimer Destroy the Planet?

Ian Plimer is a geologist in Adelaide who has single-handedly reversed the debate on climate change in Australia. So much so, the Australian senate just dumped a cap-and-trade bill that Kevin Rudd promised was coming to save the planet. Apparently, Ian Plimer has the gall to practice science in that old-fashioned sense:

Observe, hypothesize, test, conclude.

That's how science used to happen before lefties like Al Gore and Elizabeth May re-wrote the rules: conclude, observe what supports the conclusions, model a fantasy land to fit conclusions. Science is not a huma endeavor anymore; rather it is a belief system as fundamentalist as any other competing belief system.

Anyway, I thought I'd highlight some questions Ian Plimer has been asking of climate-change-mongers with, so far, no response:

"The past is the key to the present. Previous rapid and large climate changes were not related to carbon dioxide."

"This has occurred on all scales of time. This century temperature has been decreasing, yet CO2 has been increasing. Over the last 150 years, temperature has increased (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1976-1998) and decreased (1880-1910, 1940-1976, and 2002 to the present), yet CO2 has been increasing. If CO2 has been increasing, how can CO2-driven warming have driven cooling? Over historical times, there were the Minoan, Roman, and Medieval warmings, when temperature was a few degrees higher than at present. Sea level did not change. Over archaeological time, ice cores show that temperature peaks some 800 years before CO2 peaks, hence CO2 could not have driven temperature rise."

"In geological time, there have been six major ice ages. During five of these six, the CO2 content [of the atmosphere] was higher than now, and for two of these six, the CO2 content has been up to 1,000 times higher than now. If high atmospheric CO2 drives warming, then how could there be an ice age during times of high CO2? Furthermore, two of these six ice ages were at sea level at the equator."

"Over the history of time, climate changes have been driven by galactic, solar, orbital, tidal, and tectonic processes, and there has been no climate change in the past driven by CO2. The [current] rate of sea level change, CO2 release, and temperature rise and fall are well within variability, hence modern times are little different from past times...."

"Geologists use integrated interdisciplinary science and look at planetary cycles over the history of time. Anything catastrophic that can happen has happened over the last 4,567 million years, and such events are preserved in the geological record. It is only if time is ignored that we can conclude that humans change climate by CO2 emissions..."

"Climatology suffers from the same fads, fashions, dictators, and fraud that other fields of endeavor enjoy. In order to be funded well, climatology needs to be fashionable, and it is. The fundamental causes have been known for a long time, but predictions are only based on computer models that have very incomplete input. The IPCC models of 1990 and 1995 did not predict the 1998 El Nino nor the 21st-century cooling. So how can we use these to predict climate a century in advance?... The models have been spectacularly wrong, yet they are still used with no humility...."

Once again, I point out that of Canada, the U.K., U.S.A., Australia and New Zealand, it is Canada that has handled the climate change issue best. We should even be grateful to the Liberals for faking interest low those many years.
 
The great white hope on the opposite side; geoengineering. On the other hand, geoengineering might create just as bad a situation as Kyoto and related "climate change" power/rent seeking schemes. Do you want to pay for global liability insurance or the operating costs of a solar mirror?:

http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_08_30-2009_09_05.shtml#1251879017

Geoengineering and the law, Part II.

A number of people writing in the comments thread asked what would happen under international law if the United States undertook a massive geoengineering project that went horribly awry and wiped out Bangladesh or some other country. The short answer is—nothing. Bangladesh could complain until it is blue in its face but it would have no legal claim against the United States. There is nothing like tort law in international law; tort principles have to be put together from the ground up in treaties. Those treaties are few and far between; Bangladesh and the United States belong to no treaty that would create liability for a geoengineering failure. Domestic remedies would be unavailable because of sovereign immunity.

This is not to say that the United States would not pay compensation of some sort. Americans would have to deal with world opinion and their own consciences. But suppose, as I suggested in my earlier post, that the United States alone engaged in geoengineering while the rest of the world merrily free rode. One can imagine Americans believing that if other countries are not paying for the benefits, then they should not complain if they end up bearing some of the costs of failure.

All of this underscores the point I made in my first post: the potential for geoengineering does not eliminate the need for a climate treaty, and instead just complicates negotiations. Ideally, negotiators would resolve in advance how the costs of geoengineering would be shared, and who would be responsible for harms caused by failure.

A few people asked how I could be so sure that geoengineering doesn’t eliminate the need for limits on emissions. The answer is: that is what scientists think. But common sense suggests this as well. The question is like asking why we don’t just eliminate all environmental and nuisance law with the expectation that the government will come up with a device that extracts all pollution from the air, rendering regulation of the polluting activities of individuals and businesses unnecessary. Geoengineering will take place at a scale that only governments can afford, and will require close coordination among the different governments that engage in it. It is hard to understand why people think that geoengineering would avoid top-down government regulation, or cooperation among governments, of the sort that they find so distasteful about limits on emissions.

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Geoengineering and the law, Part II.
  2. Geoengineering the climate: legal implications.
 
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