• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Global Warming/Climate Change Super Thread

Here's an interesting photo:

(Shared from the Toronto Sun, http://www.torontosun.com/Comment/home.html  2 May, 2007)




 
Kirkhill said:
I find it noteworthy that the anti-US rhetoric is decreasing, noting that the US is actually working towards Kyoto aims if not Kyoto targets, likewise for Australia.  Carrots are being extended along with the stick.  The real question now is whether the LeftTM is prepared to allow some wiggle room in return for a broader consensus that might include the US and Australia (if not China, India and Brazil).
Two things that are keeping us out of Kyoto.

1 - It is pissweak. We have actually reduced the proportional amount of renewable energy we use, yet are still beating the kyoto targets we were supposed to sign on for.

2 - It is a pointless agreement without the US, China and India all signing up to a fairly stringent code.
 
I found the following:

Interesting...............

Power plan dooms world's poor

By LORRIE GOLDSTEIN

   
Environmentalists keep telling us they love humanity.

So apparently it's just people a lot of them have trouble with.

This tendency is being noted with alarm even by former environmental crusaders, as the hysteria over global warming escalates.

In the British documentary, The Great Global Warming Swindle, Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace, describes many in the environmental movement today as "anti-human", adding they tend to see people as "scum."

Moore says that's why they think "it's OK to have hundreds of millions of them go blind or die" and in particular why "the environmental movement has evolved into the strongest force there is for preventing development in the developing countries."

 

Paul Driessen, a former environmental campaigner and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green Power, Black Death notes in the same film: "My big concern with global warming is that the policies being pushed to supposedly prevent global warming are having a disastrous effect on the world's poorest people."

He means that if environmentalists succeed in their campaign to have developing countries abandon fossil fuels to produce electricity, and to substitute unreliable and expensive wind and solar power, it will doom the world's poorest to permanent poverty.

Without affordable, reliable electricity, human society is condemned to low productivity and to disease, famine and early death. Driessen complains global warming crusaders always talk about the speculative risks of using fossil fuels in terms of climate change, never about the known risks of not using them.

African economist James Shikwati, also featured in the film, describes First World environmentalists descending on Africa urging it not to use its coal and oil resources, as effectively counselling Africans to commit "suicide."

James Lovelock, a founder of the global green movement, criticizes selfish, ill-informed, affluent environmental radicals in his book, The Revenge of Gaia, for condemning millions of people living in the developing world to death from malaria because of their overly hysterical campaign against the pesticide DDT.

Richard Tren, director of Africa Fighting Malaria, makes the same point in "The Human Cost of the Anti-pesticide Movement" in the April edition of the Fraser Forum.

In his bestseller The Weather Makers, scientist/conservationist Tim Flannery discusses in a chapter titled "2084: The Carbon Dictatorship?" the possibility of an Earth Commission for Thermostatic Control (ECTC) one day zeroing in on the major cause of man-made global warming -- "the total number of people on the planet."

With that, he writes, the ECTC "will have transformed itself into an Orwellian-style world government with its own currency, army and control over every person and every inch of our planet." To be clear, Flannery is not advocating such a body, merely speculating on what could happen if we don't take action against man-made global warming in time.

But this idea that the major problem with the Earth's environment is that there are too many people is common in the environmental movement.

Of course, the more people you have, the more pollution there is. But that's not the issue. The issue is what do you do about it, and, as Moore, Driessen and others warn us, that's where the thinking of many environmentalists gets scary. Not because they set out to kill people, but because their low regard for humanity causes them to overlook, or to never see, the unintended consequences of their actions.

http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Goldstein_Lorrie/2007/05/10/4167971.html
 
This may also be appropriate for the "Scary situation: no more oil" thread, but since the global warming crusaders are primarily against energy generation (i.e. what keeps us alive and with a decent standard of living), then this is also appropriate here (many embedded links in the post; link, follow and be amazed):

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/06/AnewManhattanProject.shtml

In my perusals of my referer logs, I noticed that Greg Burch had linked to an old article of mine, for which I thank him. Unfortunately, I don't agree with his post in which he did so. I started writing a letter to him explaining why, and it got longer and longer and so I decided to post it instead.

Greg comes to a conclusion which many others have also reached. It's been a pretty regular fixture in my mailbox for a long time. He explains it this way:

We've got years, perhaps decades, of violent conflict with the Islamic world ahead of us. Sooner or later we'll have to realize that the only thing that is making this necessary is our dependence on oil from the Middle East. The culture that is attempting to destroy us is on artifical life support through the money pumped into the Middle East for oil. If that stopped, our enemy would wither and die, or change.

To begin with, I don't think that this war was caused by our use of Arab petroleum. It would have happened eventually anyway.

But even if it was caused by our use of Arab oil, that doesn't mean it will end if we cease using Arab oil.

And in any case, it isn't actually possible for us to stop relying on Arab oil without drastic and painful changes in lifestyle combined with commission of economic suicide. It wouldn't be possible for us even come close to maintaining our current GDP.

This is a fundamentally difficult problem, and most of the constraints are physical, practical, and insurmountable. This is one of those problems which look really simple to solve, but only if you don't look really closely.

As I mentioned, I've gotten a lot of email over the last couple of years from people who came to the same conclusion as Greg has. In response, I've written a lot of posts about various aspects of this in the past to show how intractable it is, and I'll start with a roundup of them, along with summaries of the points they make.

The war wasn't caused by our reliance on Arab oil.

There aren't any credible alternatives to Arab oil (general discussion).

Conservation isn't the answer.

Discussions of the flaws of alternative energy sources: geothermal, solar, wind, solar satellites, tides, fission, hydrogen, biomass

There are no other alternatives, either. Most people don't understand the size of the problem. There are only four potential sources of energy which are large enough (core taps, solar satellites, fusion, direct conversion of matter to energy) and none of them are practical now.

We aren't going to replace Arab oil with turkey guts.

Ethanol doesn't make sense as a fuel.

More details on why we won't be using electric power for vehicles. (Also includes a discussion of some aspects of terrestrial solar power.)

More discussion of the inherent problems of all forms of biomass (including ethanol and "biodiesel" and conversion of turkey guts).

In that last article, I gave this list of five properties any proposed alternative energy source must have if it is to make any real difference.

1. It has to be huge (in terms of both energy and power)
2. It has to be reliable (not intermittent or unschedulable)
3. It has to be concentrated (not diffuse)
4. It has to be possible to utilize it efficiently
5. The capital investment and operating cost to utilize it has to be comparable to existing energy sources (per gigawatt, and per gigajoule).


Note: energy and power are not the same thing. Power (measured in watts) is the amount of energy (measured in joules) produced or consumed per unit time. #1 above requires both that the total energy embodied in the resource be huge and that it be possible to utilize that energy at a very high rate (i.e. at high power levels). If there are significant practical limits on the rate, then it cannot offset the rate at which we use petroleum. If the total energy is limited, it will get used up too rapidly.

We engineers have a saying: "Anything is possible for the man who doesn't have to do it himself." I can understand why Greg wants to find some sort of technological fix for the political problem we face. But there is no point in initiating something like a "Manhattan Project" for this.

This seems like a modification of a rhetorical device I heard again and again in the 1970's and 1980's: "If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we...?" e.g. "why can't we provide clean drinking water for everyone on the planet?"

For me as an engineer, the answer was always obvious: they were not the same kinds of problems.

There are three things needed in any engineering development project: will, resources, and engineering implementation, but the third can only happen after the first two. John F. Kennedy made a speech challenging the US try to put a man on the moon before 1970; after JFK was assassinated, that created the political will to embark on the Apollo project, and to spend whatever it took to make it happen. That's when the engineers started working on it.

But not all projects are engineering development projects. In the case of "clean drinking water", the engineering is pretty simple. The real problem is political: finding the will and the resources. So the honest answer to the rhetorical question is, "Because we don't care as much about it." That's not an engineering problem.

The problem of "providing clean drinking water" is fundamentally easy from an engineering point of view. The goal of putting a man on the moon was a very tough and challenging engineering problem but it was not obviously impossible to do it (though the time constraints were pretty severe). The goal of the original Manhattan Project was also tough and challenging.

But "eliminating our reliance on Arab oil" transcends "tough and challenging" and resides in the lofty realm which engineers call "nontrivial". (Translated for laymen, that means, "Forget about it. You won't live to see it happen.")

When the American space program began in the early 1960's, they knew specifically what they wanted to accomplish, and they had a pretty good general idea of how it would be done. Likewise, in 1942 when the decision was made to begin the "Manhattan Project", there was a theoretical basis for nuclear weapons and they had a pretty good general idea of what would be needed to make them work.

In both cases the project mission was to convert the theory and general approach into detailed engineering practice. There's no doubt they were both really tough problems, but the people on those projects knew where they were trying to go and had a pretty good idea before they began about how to get there.

However, a hypothetical "eliminate reliance on Arab oil" project would not have any theoretical basis for a solution. There are no alternative energy source which satisfy those five requirements which we have or could readily develop the technology to utilize.

Greg is looking for a miracle. He wants the people on such a project to come up with some surprising answer. He doesn't have any hints for them about where they should look for it; he merely tasks them with finding it.

Unfortunately, this is a bit like the people who say we should "win without war". I wish it were possible, but what's missing is any idea of how we would actually do that. I don't think it can be done.

And I don't think we can substantially reduce our reliance on Arab petroleum. There is no "tough but achievable" solution. All alternatives are either well understood and easy (and already being used) or are intolerably difficult, and there are no as-yet-undiscovered alternatives which would satisfy those five criteria.

This, too, ultimately isn't an engineering problem.

Fusion won't solve the problem. Fusion has been "on the brink of success" all my life, and there's no telling when they'll actually make it work, or if they ever will. But if they did, I think it virtually certain that commercial fusion power generation will fail #5. The kind and amount of equipment which will be needed even for a moderate sized generation facility would make the capital cost and maintenance expense unacceptably high.

Solar satellites won't solve it, either. Solar Satellite power technology will fail #5 even more badly than fusion. It will also badly fail #4.

When it comes to power generation, the job's not done until the energy reaches the end user. The challenge of energy delivery is particularly severe for solar satellite technology.

Generally speaking, every time energy is converted from one form to another a lot of it will be lost (because of the Second Law of Thermodynamics). All technologies which generate power and deliver it to end users involve such conversions. A coal-fired electrical generation plant burns coal to produce heat, converts heat to pressure by applying a lot of that heat to a boiler to produce steam, converts pressure into mechanical motion (with a turbine), converts mechanical motion into electricity (with a dynamo), and then delivers the electricity with long distance power lines, which usually requires multiple voltage/current conversions using transformers or motor-generators. Many of those conversions are very efficient but some of them involve pretty significant losses.

The efficiencies of every step have to be multiplied together to calculate the overall system efficiency. If you have five steps and each one wastes 20%, then each step has an efficiency of 0.8, and the overall system efficiency will be 0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8 == 0.328, meaning about 33% of the original energy would be delivered to end users, with the remaining 67% being lost. But if each of those five steps wasted 30% instead of 20%, the overall system would only deliver 17% of the original energy. The more conversions required, and the worse the efficiency on those conversions, then the lower the efficiency of the overall system.

Solar satellite power generation is particularly poor in this regard. Sunlight is concentrated using mirrors (with some losses) onto a boiler (with some of the light reflecting instead of being converted to heat, and some of the heat radiating away via black-box radiation). The next few steps are the same as for a coal plant: steam drives a turbine, which drives a dynamo, which generates electricity. At that point, all you have to do is to deliver it, but that is not easy with solar satellites.

The electric power would have to be converted to microwaves (with a lot of losses). That would be beamed down to earth (with losses from atmospheric reflection, scattering and absorption). Most of the beam would strike the receiver but some would not because of beam spreading. (Also, there beam would tend to wander a bit because of atmospheric refraction, which also makes stars "twinkle".) The receiver would have to capture the microwaves that struck it and somehow convert back into electricity, and every way I know to do this has dreadfully poor yields.

Microwaves are not the only approach to the downlink, but every approach I know of for the downlink either cannot handle the power levels involved, or is terribly inefficient. Compared to terrestrial electrical power generation technologies, solar satellites inherently require more conversions, many of which have poor efficiency, and the overall system efficiency will necessarily be far worse. I would be surprised if the system had a yield as high as 5%. I would tend to think it would be even lower.

On the other hand, the energy which would have to be expended to create a solar power satellite would be huge compared to the energy needed to build a terrestrial power generation facility. Would it break even before it reached the end of its operating life? Would it actually produce more energy than it cost? I'm not so sure it would.

The capital cost to create a solar satellite would also dwarf the cost of terrestrial power plants which delivered comparable amounts of power, but the satellites and terrestrial power generators would sell their power on the same market at the same price. Could a solar satellite produce enough revenue during its operational life to repay its capital cost? It seems unlikely.

In other words, solar satellites are possible but are not feasible. We'd be much better off spending our money to build more coal-fired generation plants. We could produce much more power while spending much less money.

But they wouldn't be as romantic.

I suppose there's a place for romance. I suppose there's a place for trophy projects. I understand why the French and Brits created the Chunnel. It was an amazing technological achievement – but it's never going to pay off the investment needed to produce it. It's clear now that they'd probably have been better off considering some other approach.

I think core taps (described in this post) could ultimately satisfy all five criteria, but there are essential technological precursors for core taps which don't exist yet. The most important problem is that current drilling technology is subject to scaling problems which mean it can never reach the necessary depths. As drill shafts get longer, the total mass of the shaft rises and turning resistance increases (from friction on a greater surface). The strength of the metal used in the shaft can't really be increased. So as the shaft gets longer, one of three things will eventually happen: either the drill will seize up because too much force is needed to overcome shaft friction and too little force will be transmitted to the drill bit to keep cutting, or the drill shaft will start to twist, or the drill shaft will actually break outright.

One of the things which is needed is an entirely new drilling technology which can reach the depths required, but it's not obvious what it might be. My best guess is that it will be based on a high powered laser, but there's more to the problem than that. (When you drill, you not only need to cut, you need to remove. How does a laser remove?) Whatever the solution might turn out to be, it's likely to bear about as much resemblance to current drilling as transistors bear to vacuum tubes.

In 1942, the people on the original Manhattan Project had a definite destination in mind and a pretty good idea of how to get there.

But people assigned to Greg's new Manhattan Project would have no such destination. All they'd have would be a nebulous goal. That's not the same thing. What's worse, they'd have every reason to believe there was no way to achieve that goal.

Greg continued:

I'll say it as clearly as I can: If we're at war -- and we are -- where is the "Manhattan Project"? Where are our leaders? Why isn't developing technologies that will free us from dependence on oil our number one priority as a civilization?

There is no such project because it would be a waste of time and money. I'm sorry, but it's really that simple.

Or rather, it can be stated that simply, but the actual reason is very complicated.

Update: In fact, if we actually became bound and determined to drastically reduce consumption of Arab petroleum, and didn't want to destroy our economy doing so, then there are two quite obvious solutions. First would be to start using Canadian oil sands. The other would be for us to start building coal gasification plants (to utilize America's vast deposits of black or brown coal). The technologies involved in both of those are well understood; neither would require a "Manhattan Project". Right now, the main reason we aren't doing either is that they're not cost-competitive with petroleum.

When I referred to the problem as "nontrivial" above, I was responding to it in the terms Greg was thinking about: development of some brand new energy source which would miraculously make it so we no longer needed much petroleum. That remains nontrivial.

Update 20040604: TMLutas thinks I'm too pessimistic.

He thinks he's totally discredited this article by pointing out that solar satellites would use solar cells instead of mirrors and boilers. Actually, in high-power designs, boilers and turbines have surprisingly good efficiency, much better than the 15% he quotes for solar cells, which waste the majority of the light which strikes them because the frequency is wrong. That's not where I think the efficiency problem lies, anyway. The problem is the power downlink to the ground, especially the conversion to RF and back to electricity in the receiver. They'll both be terrible.

He thinks he's found a citation for 90% efficiency in conversion of DC to microwave RF. Unfortunately, what he has found isn't relevant to this problem. It's easy to do that if you're only talking about a few watts. It is not at all easy if you're talking a gigawatt. No one is going to get 90% conversion of electric power to microwave transmission at gigawatt power levels. No one is going to come remotely close.

This is one of the few remaining applications where semiconductors have not yet displaced vacuum tubes. In a modern TV transmitter rated for 500 KW or 1 MW, everything is transistorized right up to the very last amplification stage, which uses vacuum tubes the size of garbage cans.

The satellite downlink will have to generate and transmit as much RF as a thousand such TV stations. Doing that is difficult. Doing that with 90% efficiency is "nontrivial".

Doing it at microwave frequencies merely adds to the fun, because extremely high frequency applications are also extremely unforgiving. I'm not really sure just how you'd generate microwave RF at gigawatt power levels, quite frankly, but whatever approach gets used, it ain't gonna achieve 90% conversion. Not gonna happen.

Lutas concludes, SDB took on an almost impossible task, proving that something cannot be done feasibly. No, I'm afraid not. I don't contend that these things are and will always remain infeasible (though the ones I discussed are definitely infeasible right now). What I contend that they cannot be done soon enough, large enough, to have any political effect on this war.

Update: More here.
[/qote]

So for your lifetime and mine, hydrocarbons will be the primary power source for the industrial and wants to be industrial world economy. I would be willing to listen to the Greens if I saw the giving up modern lifestyles en mass and living the lifestyle of the 1500's, but they certainly do not seem willing to give up warm houses (much less private jets!), so their exhortations are more than a little hypocritical.
 
My environmental plan remains:
1)  Increase the price of electricity dramatically so that people have an incentive to conserve.  Our current model which we have brought about ourselves as voters is that we literally subsidize our own electricity through our income taxes so that we can waste electricity at a horrid rate (running air conditioners with windows open, etc.)  In short, until people pay AT LEAST the actual price of electricity, we will get zero real effort towards true conservation.  Additionally, I would phase in a 15% premium on actual rates (which would bump current rates by about 30% total) with that 15% being dedicated to all green projects focused primarily on nuclear power and wind power.  This will fund our ability to eliminate the coal plants in Ontario and elsewhere....
2)  Build those new nuclear plants as part of an international plan to create the equivalent of a nuclear power plant assembly line.  I don't care who we partner with whether it is EU or American, or somebody else, but our previous habit of spending billions on one-off designs is beyond stupid.
3)  New investment for water clean-up.  Specifically, a combination of low-interest loans and follow-on grants upon completion for water treatment facilities.  Specifically any water we put back into rivers or our lakes should be drinkable and these lovely Ecoli blooms that we get each summer should be a thing of the past....it's just gross.
4)  New air quality guidelines based specifically on airborne particulates and heavy metals, because that's the stuff that hurts people.
5)  Enact new environmental trade legislation where-in tarrifs can be applied to nations whose emission impact the health of Canadians.  Specifically, I'm looking at the new build Chinese coal power plants which are already putting up enough heavy metals into the air, that it's already causing smog days on the West Coast.

Getting those ducks in a row would be "Year One"....


Matthew.  :salute:
 
Cdn Blackshirt said:
My environmental plan remains:
1)  Increase the price of electricity dramatically so that people have an incentive to conserve.  Our current model which we have brought about ourselves as voters is that we literally subsidize our own electricity through our income taxes so that we can waste electricity at a horrid rate (running air conditioners with windows open, etc.)  In short, until people pay AT LEAST the actual price of electricity, we will get zero real effort towards true conservation. 

Matthew, I am not sure that I can agree with this point (the rest of it I can easily).

Back to TANSTAAFL.  While individuals may be sheltered from the costs of providing energy, society isn't.  You say yourself that the difference between what the consumer pays directly and the real cost is made up by the consumer paying indirectly through taxes.  The costs are still covered.  The difference is that it is society at large that bears the cost of the service with individuals paying a "nominal" user's fee.

Given that we have decided that providing energy is best handled "collectively/communally (where's that shudder emoticon when you need it?)" then we rely on politicians to make sure that the lights stay on.  When they don't, we get rid of the politicians.  When that doesn't work we take matters into our own hands and buy noisy, smelly gas generators at our own expense and then have to fuel and maintain them, or cut down tree lots to heat the house (that only works until you run out of trees).

In the meantime the regularly fired politicians get the message that "something must be done" in the immortal words of Mel Brooks "to protect their phoney baloney jobs".  At the same time the population finds that they have been able to find a bit of extra cash for that generator and wouldn't be adverse to sending some of that money to a third party to supply the energy without all the fuss of maintaining the gear and having to worry about wind direction to avoid the smell.

Market prices for energy have already promoted conservation and alternative energy plans.  Industry's interest in conservation has always been there but becomes especially acute from time to time (WW1, WW2, Arab Oil Embargo 1973....).  Each time one of those events happen Industry responds by ratcheting itself up to a new efficiency standard.  That is why we have gone from electric motors of 80-85% efficiency to a current standard of 95% efficiency.  Industry currently is investigating new energy sources as it tries to trim costs in the face of rising energy prices.  I have been involved in a few of these discussions already.  The reality is that for the vast majority of industries energy is still a marginal cost, as is labour.  Most projects that I have seen in my field (the food industry) the major cost drivers are: the cost of money, the cost of marketing and the cost of raw materials. 

Energy impacts project profitability.  It can even impact the decision to close down a facility that has paid itself off and the costs of money and marketing are no longer issues - maintenance then starts ramping up.  But it is seldom the deciding factor in determining the feasibility of a project.

The projects that I have seen so far have yet to be encumbered with an energy supply cost anything close to the cost necessary to offset the capital and operating cost of investing in alternative energy sources.  (Fish Oil is one that I have revisited a few times, along with biodiesel from slaughterhouse waste and I have had a chance to look at a remote Wind installation for a small community).



 
This in today's National Post by Lorne Gunter, commenting on the appointment of a Zimbabwean thug that can't grow corn on his previously productive purloined pharm, as the head of the UN's Council on Sustainable Development (CSD).  Interesting that Mugabe has long been a Chinese client.....

The Third World mocks our green agenda
Lorne Gunter, National Post
Published: Monday, May 14, 2007

.....Still, the real news out of the CSD last week should have been the collapse of talks for a post- Kyoto treaty on global warming.

As regular readers will know, I don't buy the theory (still unproven) that carbon dioxide emissions from human activity are dangerously warming the planet. But if you do, the collapse of the CSD negotiations should show you what a farce Kyoto has been all along.

The developing world was not part of Kyoto's emissions caps. But Kyoto's defenders have always reassured the world that countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Brazil would be brought under the caps in whatever treaty replaced Kyoto.

Now that the need to bring these nations within the international emissions-reduction regime is real, though--and not merely some years-off theory -- the governments of developing nations want nothing to do with the caps. They and their people are getting richer thanks to their ability to use dirty fuel sources, and they don't feel much like sacrificing their rising standards of living on the West's "green" alter.

For instance, China, with tens of thousands of coal mines already, is opening a new pit every week, and according to a recent study by Standard & Poor's, a new coal-fired power plant every five days.

By next year, China will have replaced the United States as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter. By about 2010, India will be second.

That's not to say that the developed world has license to emit whatever it wants because the developing world is. But when environmentalists and liberal-left politicians claim Canada must meet its Kyoto commitments by 2012 lest the planet immolate, a look at what's going on in other parts of the world shows us how ridiculous and hollow such alarmism is.

China and India not signing on to Kyoto.  Unsustainable Ministers of Sustainability.  IPCC recommending more Nukes.  Methinks the chorus needs to shout louder.

Louder Al.  Louder Dave.  Louder Stephane.  Louder Liz. Louder Maude.......... Maybe that way you can win the argument.
 
Kirkhill, you think electricity rates should be subsidized by our income taxes so it's cheaper to waste, and in doing so guarantee we put extra heavy metals into the air via our coal-fired plants?

In addition, do you not think we should have create an constant re-investment fund for both power generation and power transmission, rather than waiting for system failure and then having to borrow billions to after-the-fact clean it up?

Little help....


Matthew.    ???
 
Cdn Blackshirt said:
Kirkhill, you think electricity rates should be subsidized by our income taxes so it's cheaper to waste, and in doing so guarantee we put extra heavy metals into the air via our coal-fired plants?

In addition, do you not think we should have create an constant re-investment fund for both power generation and power transmission, rather than waiting for system failure and then having to borrow billions to after-the-fact clean it up?

Little help....


Matthew.    ???

Oddly enough, that's exactly what is happenning here.

Since the early 1980s there has been little spending on power infrastructure here in Victoria, Australia, and it has bitten us. We now cannot cope with demand. This year a bushfire knocked out one line easement, and took 1/3 of the state's power with it.

Our state govt is in the pockets of the greens, and has refused a new electricity/synthetic fuels plant from opening, which has necesitated the continued running of the worlds dirtiest power station, Hazelwood. They will not build any more dams (necessary to take full use of wind power) either. Madness. We are now in a scramble to make up the difference via upgraded transmission, and gas turbines. Which isn't going to work. Wind is unreliable, and the last gas plant built was banned from operating between 9am and 5pm weekdays...which is when the highest demand is. The price of electricity is going to rise significantly, and system losses are going to increase, as we now have to run our lines hotter than before, just to meet demand.
 
Matthew, I think our electricity rates ARE subsidized by our taxes.  Therefore we are either going to pay for investments in generation, transmission, distribution and emissions control (however emissions are defined) by paying higher rates or higher taxes.  Rates are a directed tax or a mail paid either to the government or the supplier.  We are already paying full price for the electricity.
The price of electricity doesn't have to rise.  It just has to be reallocated.  

If you are going to charge me directly for the full value of the service then reduce my taxes by a level commensurate with the subsidy I am already paying.

Generally I dislike handing the Government a lump sum of taxes for services in any case.  I would prefer to dinged for a series of "Insurance Policies" where I know how much I am going to spend on Employment, Energy, Policing, Health, National Defence, Pensions etc. with those that are disadvantaged legitimately being individually subsidized and taxed back like all other tax payers.

The other point I was trying to make is that the current blended system of cost recovery through taxation and direct user fees is not without its feedback mechanisms.  Those mechanisms have already served to induce industry to improve efficiencies.  They have also served to push politicians to make changes to the supply system.  Although not as efficiently as the market, the political process does produce change...eventually.

But somethings, like your heavy metal issue from burning coal, are best addressed centrally in central facilities - Beijing and Delhi currently, and most of Northern Europe in the 50s (London in particular) are great examples of the effects of individuals taking responsibility for supplying services with each household operating a number of open hearths rather than diverting the same coal to a coking plant and a generating facility.

I should have been more precise.  It was the first sentence of that paragraph that I was disputing.  Gut reaction to anybody telling me that prices should go up I guess.  ;)
 


 
Kirkhill said:
Matthew, I think our electricity rates ARE subsidized by our taxes.  

In case, you missed it, my whole point was that they shouldn't be.....(Just read your last line, I think we're on the same page)  :warstory:

Therefore we are either going to pay for investments in generation, transmission, distribution and emissions control (however emissions are defined) by paying higher rates or higher taxes.  Rates are a directed tax or a mail paid either to the government or the supplier.  We are already paying full price for the electricity.

The price of electricity doesn't have to rise.  It just has to be reallocated.  

If you are going to charge me directly for the full value of the service then reduce my taxes by a level commensurate with the subsidy I am already paying.

This goes without saying. 

Generally I dislike handing the Government a lump sum of taxes for services in any case.  I would prefer to dinged for a series of "Insurance Policies" where I know how much I am going to spend on Employment, Energy, Policing, Health, National Defence, Pensions etc. with those that are disadvantaged legitimately being individually subsidized and taxed back like all other tax payers.

The other point I was trying to make is that the current blended system of cost recovery through taxation and direct user fees is not without its feedback mechanisms.  Those mechanisms have already served to induce industry to improve efficiencies.  They have also served to push politicians to make changes to the supply system.  Although not as efficiently as the market, the political process does produce change...eventually.

But somethings, like your heavy metal issue from burning coal, are best addressed centrally in central facilities - Beijing and Delhi currently, and most of Northern Europe in the 50s (London in particular) are great examples of the effects of individuals taking responsibility for supplying services with each household operating a number of open hearths rather than diverting the same coal to a coking plant and a generating facility.

I should have been more precise.  It was the first sentence of that paragraph that I was disputing.  Gut reaction to anybody telling me that prices should go up I guess.  ;) 

See if the prices went up for a "pay-as-you-go" model, and we kept your taxation at the same level, that would be gouging, and I'm not into that either....unless it's for debt reduction, but that's a debate for another thread (I'm a believer that Canada should have zero debt).


Matthew.    ;D
 
Kirkhill said:
Matthew, I think our electricity rates ARE subsidized by our taxes.  
Yes and no. The generation is not subsidised, but the transmission is effectively paid for by taxes, as their construction and operation is government funded. Connections to the grid are what is private.
 
Generation is certainly subsidized in Ontario.

The government of Ontario had to assume about $9 billion in Ontario Power Generation debt within the last 7 years because it was about to go bankrupt because the "company" had to pay real costs, but were legislated not to raise rates to consumers.


Matthew.  ???
 
Cdn Blackshirt said:
Generation is certainly subsidized in Ontario.

The government of Ontario had to assume about $9 billion in Ontario Power Generation debt within the last 7 years because it was about to go bankrupt because the "company" had to pay real costs, but were legislated not to raise rates to consumers.


Matthew.  ???

They still do, and so the Ontario taxpayer pays peak rates for electricity generated by American coal fired generators. The irony of it all is quite amazing (anti Americans who want to end coal fired generation in Ontario paying Americans for coal fired electricity.....); and if carried out for much longer will probably spark the greatest financial disaster in Canadian history (Sorry Mr McGuinty, but these Government of Ontario Bonds just are not AAA grade anymore.....)
 
well at least the solar farm Ontario wants to build will power 2000-3000 houses EVERY SINGLE DAY!!!!
global warming is finally on the ropes ;)
 
FascistLibertarian said:
well at least the solar farm Ontario wants to build will power 2000-3000 houses EVERY SINGLE DAY!!!!
global warming is finally on the ropes ;)

And how will that small village be powered EVERY SINGLE NIGHT, on cloudy days, when it rains or snows?  ::) ::) ::)

At the very minimum, there will need to be some sort of fossil fuel generator on permanent stand by to take up the slack when clouds roll in, or the grid will become unbalanced, with unpleasant knock off effects.

If we are serious about energy efficiency, we need to invest in technologies which wring the most out of every unit of fuel. Solid Oxide Fuel Cells consume hydrocarbons with 40-50% efficiency, and generate enough waste heat to serve as boilers for steam turbines or heat sources for gas turbines; combined cycles like that can get up to 70% efficiency from the fuel vs @ 30-40% for gas or steam turbines. Of course there is a LOT of energy loss in the transmission system, and further losses converting electricity into light and power in the homes and industries downstream.

Systems like that on the upstream side and high efficiencies in the transmission leg will provide equal or greater amounts of electricity with lower fuel inputs, and put a dent in real pollution like Ozone, Sulphur Oxides, Nitrous Oxides and so on.

Putting a dent in Global Warming will require adjusting the output of the Sun, a somewhat more ambitious project. Some evidence exists to suggest cloud formation is driven by the production of cosmic rays, which are a result of violent astrophysical process in the Galaxy. Controlling Supernovas and the accretion disks of Black Holes is certainly going to be a formidable task in the near term..........
 
http://tinyurl.com/2pblgh

Canada should seize challenge of clean coal
NEIL REYNOLDS

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

May 16, 2007 at 5:56 AM EDT

OTTAWA — In basic ways, Alex Fassbender's breakthrough in clean-coal technology retains James Watt's methodology from the 18th century. You pulverize coal into particles as fine as talcum powder, then burn it in a furnace surrounded by pipes filled with water. You direct the steam into turbines that spin to produce electricity. In other basic ways, though, it is very different. For one thing, there's no smokestack.

Mr. Fassbender is the American engineer whose invention - as tested last year in the federal government's energy labs in Ottawa - delivered clean electricity at a lower cost than the inventor himself had expected. Code-named TIPS (Thermo-energy Integrated Power System), the technology strips coal of its pollutants and captures its carbon emissions in power plants a 10th the size of conventional plants.

In his assessment of the technology, federal research scientist Bruce Clements described it as potentially the most competitive source of electricity - in cents per kilowatt-hour - in the world. A TIPS-based demo plant, he calculated, could produce zero-pollution, carbon-captured electricity for 8 cents a kilowatt-hour. In regular commercial operation, the cost would fall significantly. (The 2006 retail cost of electricity in Ontario ranged from a subsidized 5.8 cents per kilowatt-hour to 9.7 cents; the 2006 national average retail cost in the United States was 9.8 cents U.S.). By these calculations, the world's most abundant fossil fuel could supply clean, green electricity at the world's most economical prices.

Mr. Fassbender says the downsizing of power plants would enable them to fit comfortably into large cities, close to consumers - any place served by a railway line for the delivery of coal. "A conventional 500-megawatt plant has to be built in the hinterland," he says. "You lose 4 per cent of your electricity from the transmission lines." With an urban coal-fired plant, the captured greenhouse gases would be moved to storage sites either as a compressed liquid or as a compressed gas.

Indeed, everything in the TIPS process is compressed. You begin with a separate tank that fits alongside the furnace. You fill this tank with atmospheric air and put it under pressure -- 1,250 pounds per square inch. You separate the oxygen in the air from the nitrogen, and direct pure oxygen to the furnace to drive the combustion. Then you burn the coal under pressure -- again, 1,250 psi. You subject the steam itself to higher pressures -- from 2,500 psi to 3,700 psi. At the end of the combustion cycle, you have nothing left in the furnace except ash, used commercially in the making of concrete.

You capture the pollutants (sulphur oxides, nitrogen oxides, mercury, particulate matter) from the hot exhaust fumes that exit the furnace. When you pass these fumes through a condensing heat exchanger, you get very hot water. At 400 degrees Fahrenheit, this water becomes a significant energy source all on its own. "This is what the [high] pressure buys you," Mr. Fassbender says. "It means that the pressure pays for itself."

When the exhaust fumes release the water, they release the pollutants, which are easily separated and packaged for commercial use. You direct some of the carbon dioxide back to the furnace to exploit the residual energy in it. You cool the rest - still under high pressure -- to 87 degrees Fahrenheit, at which point it turns into a compressed liquid, ready for underground storage.

Clean-coal furnaces have existed in various forms for a decade or more, some more effective than others. In primitive form, chemical "scrubbers" captured pollutants as they vented from smokestacks. In advanced form, the furnace converts the coal into a synthetic gas from which pollutants are extracted before they reach the chimney. IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) plants, though, do not capture CO{-2} emissions. "They can be made to capture CO{-2} emissions," Mr. Fassbender says, "only by turning them into chemical factories." And they are expensive to build, costly to operate.

Canada and the United States have coal reserves that will last for hundreds of years.

Coal is thus an inherently sustainable, relatively inexpensive source of primary energy. The TIPS technology remains theoretical. It needs a real-life test. As a research partner, Canada is well placed to fund the demo TIPS plant - and help to rescue for future generations the most democratic of the fossil fuels.
 
a_majoor said:
Putting a dent in Global Warming will require adjusting the output of the Sun, a somewhat more ambitious project.
We could do what the "Monolith Aliens" did in 2061: Final Odyssey.  Make a bunch of monoliths that "shade" the Earth from the Sun!  Of course, only Lucifer was effectively blocked, though the sun did "flicker" momentarily, according to some.

;D
 
Save your money; 2025 isn't that far away:

http://canadianbluelemons.blogspot.com/2007/05/everyone-must-buy-suv-by-2025

Friday, May 18, 2007
Everyone Must Buy an SUV by 2025

Here
Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by about the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 -- the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer.

Using Kookyzuki and Algorerhythm's logic, then the government must act in less that two decades to see that everyone MUST own an SUV.
 
Back
Top