EV's, Gas/Oil, and The Future- another swerve split from- JT Hints Boosting Canada’s Military Spending

[Brad Sallows]

To suggest that pollution is somehow someone else’s problem is irresponsible. For carbon emissions, Canada is the 2nd worst per capita and 8th worst as a country for cumulative emissions. ( https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/CDIAC) For such a young country we have had a huge part in destroying the world. Mining in Canada has polluted the soil and water. The tar sands oil production has destroyed vast swaths of Alberta and is working its magic in Saskatchewan. Fisheries on the west coast are under further assault from the fossil (coal,gas & oil) fuel business.
We along with most of the western world have moved our worst polluting businesses to the far east. All those cheap throw away products that you’re buying thru Amazon are at the expense of the health of lives of people on the other side of the world. I say start cleaning up our own backyard before blaming everyone else. Stop pretending that it’s someone else’s problem, we’ve all had a part in making it.

Bullsh!t.

Canada's beneficial contributions to science and technology (including health) more than outweigh the costs.

A strong contribution Canada could make to lowering global emissions (which is the whole point) is to pull out all the stops hindering extraction and export of natural gas to countries (eg. China) where it could be used to replace coal as the fuel of choice for thermal generation plants. Locally, it would increase emissions.

People working long hours overseas to produce junk for us to consume are sometimes doing that because it's better than the alternative - longer hours for less money, or subsistence farming and hoping not to lose the famine lottery.

There are always likely to be minuses along with pluses, but there will be pluses. Focusing only on the minuses is worthless.

 

[Brad Sallows]

having an unstable electric grid.

Ah, the grid. The critical factor (along with generation) underpinning the whole wish list.

 

[ytz]

There are no large competitors anywhere in this region that are electrifying.

Your mistake is thinking that competition is only local. We get bananas from Costa Rica and strawberries from California in the middle of winter. Anybody who can cut their costs in any market that has free trade with Canada should be seen as competition.

I can assure you that Jeff's electric delivery vans stay close to home. The highway trucks remain diesel.

Their electric vans do stay close to home. That's how last mile delivery works. You should hang out with loggies more. If you did did, you'd realize that last mile costs are substantial. Unit costs for transport, on large volumes, are cheaper. That's why I can get pints of strawberries in Ottawa, in the middle of winter, from the Salinas Valley 4000 km away, for a few dollars. This would have been a luxury for aristocrats just a century ago.

But in case you haven't heard, every large logistics operation from Walmart to Amazon to FedEx is looking to electrify their semis. And it's not cause they suddenly care about the environment. They are just motivated by something else that is green.

Walmart Canada introduces first electric semi-trucks

Walmart Canada’s first electric semi-trucks are on the road in British Columbia, a meaningful first step towards its ambition to have 100% of its fleet alternatively powered.

www.walmartcanada.ca

Loblaw deploys 10 new electric trucks in B.C., promises more

Loblaw has more than doubled its zero-emission fleet, adding 10 Freightliner eCascadia trucks in Vancouver, and has 25 Tesla Semis on order

electricautonomy.ca

Amazon electric trucks roll out in California, support sustainability goals

Heavy-duty electric trucks are now rolling out across Southern California, including Amazon’s first electric trucks in our ocean freight operations.

www.aboutamazon.com

Economics will do more than any environmentalist has ever dreamed of.

 

[ytz]

Ah, the grid. The critical factor (along with generation) underpinning the whole wish list.

You're missing the point here. If they are seeing adoption with the grid they have, adoption only goes up as they improve their infrastructure, which is what developing countries do.

My parents just came back from a trip to India. Mumbai alone has six metro lines under construction right now. My father went to his hometown which used to a third tier or lower city. Let's say something like the importance of Moncton. He was shocked at the number of electric rickshaws there. Quite the change from his last trip 7 years ago.

A problem in all these discussions is projection. You're a Canadian who is so used to electricity, clean and well ordered roads and fuel you can afford that you can't even imagine what it would be like for a lower middle class family in India. You assume they'll make all the choices you'd make. But of course, they won't. They respond to their economic environment and act rationally. And in their economic environment, fuel is only slightly cheaper than here with incomes that are a tenth of ours.

A nice glimpse at their point of view:

 

[YZT580]

Your mistake is thinking that competition is only local. We get bananas from Costa Rica and strawberries from California in the middle of winter. Anybody who can cut their costs in any market that has free trade with Canada should be seen as competition.



Their electric vans do stay close to home. That's how last mile delivery works. You should hang out with loggies more. If you did did, you'd realize that last mile costs are substantial. Unit costs for transport, on large volumes, are cheaper. That's why I can get pints of strawberries in Ottawa, in the middle of winter, from the Salinas Valley 4000 km away, for a few dollars. This would have been a luxury for aristocrats just a century ago.

But in case you haven't heard, every large logistics operation from Walmart to Amazon to FedEx is looking to electrify their semis. And it's not cause they suddenly care about the environment. They are just motivated by something else that is green.

Walmart Canada introduces first electric semi-trucks

Walmart Canada’s first electric semi-trucks are on the road in British Columbia, a meaningful first step towards its ambition to have 100% of its fleet alternatively powered.

www.walmartcanada.ca

Loblaw deploys 10 new electric trucks in B.C., promises more

Loblaw has more than doubled its zero-emission fleet, adding 10 Freightliner eCascadia trucks in Vancouver, and has 25 Tesla Semis on order

electricautonomy.ca

Amazon electric trucks roll out in California, support sustainability goals

Heavy-duty electric trucks are now rolling out across Southern California, including Amazon’s first electric trucks in our ocean freight operations.

www.aboutamazon.com

Economics will do more than any environmentalist has ever dreamed of.

There is nothing wrong with electric delivery vans or buses for that matter except in areas where they won't work and there are many. Your strawberries are shipped via diesel. Now California is making it impossible to run so it is quite possible that you will see the last of those cheap strawberries within just a couple of years. And I drove one of those rigs so I know exactly what it costs to run.

 

[ytz]

A strong contribution Canada could make to lowering global emissions (which is the whole point) is to pull out all the stops hindering extraction and export of natural gas to countries (eg. China) where it could be used to replace coal as the fuel of choice for thermal generation plants.

I have never understood this ambition. Why would the Chinese (who we argue are major threats) choose to become dependent on our natural gas, while displacing their own domestic coal industry? The second flaw in this genius plan to save the world with natural gas is that countries that are buying have to agree to build massive gas distribution networks or relocate all their power plants near gas lines. This is actually why it's getting hard to convince India to really be enthusiastic about power generation with imported LNG.

Would you make that choice in their shoes? Of course you wouldn't. And they aren't either. China alone is building more nuclear power plants than the rest of the world combined. And more renewables than the EU and US combined every year. And they are largely going to transition their coal plants to swing capacity and seasonal reserves. That's their plan.

Getting LNG Canada built was a good idea. But the market beyond that is starting to look shaky as everybody else had the same idea too.

The LNG glut will chill the gas ambitions of oil majors

An influx of gas well into the next decade would be an unhelpful headwind for the energy transition

www.ft.com

 

[ytz]

And I drove one of those rigs so I know exactly what it costs to run.

Then you should understand exactly how motivated those companies are to replace diesel as a fuel and your wages as costs of operation. And there's more than one way to skin the proverbial cat. We haven't even gotten to what railcos are doing.

I will happily bet anybody that transport costs a decade from now will be cheaper, while emissions are lower. I don't see any of this as being contradictory. And Thermo 101 says they aren't.

That said I love it when the majority disagrees with me. That's where opportunity is made....

 

[Brad Sallows]

You're missing the point here. If they are seeing adoption with the grid they have, adoption only goes up as they improve their infrastructure, which is what developing countries do.

My parents just came back from a trip to India. Mumbai alone has six metro lines under construction right now. My father went to his hometown which used to a third tier or lower city. Let's say something like the importance of Moncton. He was shocked at the number of electric rickshaws there. Quite the change from his last trip 7 years ago.

A problem in all these discussions is projection. You're a Canadian who is so used to electricity, clean and well ordered roads and fuel you can afford that you can't even imagine what it would be like for a lower middle class family in India. You assume they'll make all the choices you'd make. But of course, they won't. They respond to their economic environment and act rationally. And in their economic environment, fuel is only slightly cheaper than here with incomes that are a tenth of ours.

I don't care about India. Our grid isn't connected to theirs, and there isn't yet any reasonably scalable way to ship surplus electricity in either direction. We can adopt up to the point at which demand matches supply, and then there will be a pause while capacity is added. EVs will be competing with AI and with consumers who are trying to get out from under expensive fuels simply for cooking and heating. India, with much greater population densities and fewer long cold winters and probably fewer political impediments to rolling out megaprojects, presents an entirely different situation.

Subsidies pulled some EV adoption here and in the US from the future into the present, which meant that any kind of drop in demand would leave the automakers hanging and having to cut production. Political interference in markets rarely fails to produce ill effects. Adoption will continue, but the rate of uptake will be uneven, and it isn't going to meet political deadlines.

Gasoline or diesel can be delivered relatively efficiently to where it is needed, in simple containers. That's harder to do with batteries, and a lot harder to do by building out transmission infrastructure. At some point, the latter simply isn't economically sensible (ie. can't pay for itself).

Nonlinear improvement curves are not inevitable or endless. At one point in the mid-80s it looked like we might have commercially viable superconductors operating in the realm of "ordinary" temperatures in a few years. That didn't pan out, and that was just a physics problem. Political and economic hurdles are harder to surmount, and not reliably predictable - both are essentially in the problem domain of human behaviour. One big safety f*ckup and things can come to a sudden halt for a long time.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I have never understood this ambition. Why would the Chinese (who we argue are major threats) choose to become dependent on our natural gas, while displacing their own domestic coal industry?

Air quality. I haven't been to China. I have spent a night in Kaohsiung (Taiwan). Anyone who has never been to an equivalent or worse city has never really experienced air pollution.

The second flaw in this genius plan to save the world with natural gas is that countries that are buying have to agree to build massive gas distribution networks or relocate all their power plants near gas lines. This is actually why it's getting hard to convince India to really be enthusiastic about power generation with imported LNG.

Would you make that choice in their shoes? Of course you wouldn't. And they aren't either. China alone is building more nuclear power plants than the rest of the world combined. And more renewables than the EU and US combined every year. And they are largely going to transition their coal plants to swing capacity and seasonal reserves. That's their plan.

If the cost and hassle of nuke plants and renewables is less than the cost and hassle of LNG thermal plants, sure. It isn't the case that there is this one bad thing about LNG and only good things about the others. It's possible they'll fail - including due to economic and political mismanagement - and turn the coal back on, like Germany.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I will happily bet anybody that transport costs a decade from now will be cheaper, while emissions are lower.

That'll probably happen even without removing drivers or moving away from diesel.

 

[ytz]

We can adopt up to the point at which demand matches supply, and then there will be a pause while capacity is added. EVs will be competing with AI and with consumers who are trying to get out from under expensive fuels simply for cooking and heating.

Indeed. And that's why power generation will be a great sector to invest in. I'm not the least bit worried about the grid. Average demand load for personal EVs across all commuter populations is literally on par with the average AC unit. We grew the grid for everybody to get air conditioning. We'll grow the grid for everybody to have EVs. And all the utilities are highly motivated to do this. You know who has the largest EV charging network in Canada? Hydro Québec. Getting a cut of the dollars that would normally go to Esso or Petro-Canada is quite motivating. Are you under the impression that utilities will look at growing demand for their product and think this is a problem?

Nonlinear improvement curves are not inevitable or endless.

They are not inevitable. But generally speaking we don't get to the point where this tech now is and have it flop. You're basically arguing the equivalent of saying in 2012 that everyone will go back to dumb phones. Theoretically possible. Practically unlikely. And those adoption curves are accelerating.

That acceleration is in no small part due to causal feedback loops. Those billions that every government is now putting into battery plants for their auto sector (not just ours) kinda proves the point.

And really this should look familiar:

Especially the last 10 years:

 

[ytz]

That'll probably happen even without removing drivers or moving away from diesel.

More intermodal would make it a bit cheaper. But electric miles are somewhere between 50-80% cheaper than diesel miles over a full lifecycle (ex-operator costs). Those kinds of savings are highly motivating to companies to figure out how to make a technology work. And electrification is the pre-requisite to automation. Any controls engineer will tell you why.

 

[ytz]

Air quality. I haven't been to China. I have spent a night in Kaohsiung (Taiwan). Anyone who has never been to an equivalent or worse city has never really experienced air pollution.


If the cost and hassle of nuke plants and renewables is less than the cost and hassle of LNG thermal plants, sure. It isn't the case that there is this one bad thing about LNG and only good things about the others. It's possible they'll fail - including due to economic and political mismanagement - and turn the coal back on, like Germany.

Are you under the impression that Chinese Communist Party is so concerned about air pollution that they will accept the creation of a strategic vulnerability in the form of dependence for energy on a virtual colony of the US?

I will never understand how people can look at America's obsession about energy independence and fail to understand that other countries (particularly other major powers) can have the same idea.

 

[childs56]

I have never understood this ambition. Why would the Chinese (who we argue are major threats) choose to become dependent on our natural gas, while displacing their own domestic coal industry?

The same reason why China buys tons of coal from Canada and around the world. They buy coal for manufacturing, not just heating. They will also buy millions of cubic meters of Natural gas. NG is used for more then just making electricity and heat. It is heavily used in making plastics, glycols etc which are very important for modern manufacturing.

The second flaw in this genius plan to save the world with natural gas is that countries that are buying have to agree to build massive gas distribution networks or relocate all their power plants near gas lines. This is actually why it's getting hard to convince India to really be enthusiastic about power generation with imported LNG.

Yet the experts say by 2050 India will triple their Natural gas use. They are spending 4.9 billion on natural gas pipeline infrastructure in the next few years. Definitely not a country shying away from Foreign LNG.

Would you make that choice in their shoes? Of course you wouldn't. And they aren't either.

They are making their choice, it is secure long term sources for natural resources.

China alone is building more nuclear power plants than the rest of the world combined.

They also have little to any safety standards or human rights. They don't care if they build a leaky nuke plant.

And more renewables than the EU and US combined every year.

LOL, labor is cheap as is manufacturing those products. Longevity of the products is a issue they are and will continue to deal with.

And they are largely going to transition their coal plants to swing capacity and seasonal reserves. That's their plan.

Getting LNG Canada built was a good idea. But the market beyond that is starting to look shaky as everybody else had the same idea too.

I doubt NG and Coal will be a thing of the past in our life time.

The LNG glut will chill the gas ambitions of oil majors

An influx of gas well into the next decade would be an unhelpful headwind for the energy transition

www.ft.com

More intermodal would make it a bit cheaper. But electric miles are somewhere between 50-80% cheaper than diesel miles over a full lifecycle (ex-operator costs).

Until electric vehicles pay their full share of tax then we don't know what the actual costs are. Many people are finding out the maintenance cost is not as cheap as they were told. Time will tell what they are over the long run here.

Those kinds of savings are highly motivating to companies to figure out how to make a technology work. And electrification is the pre-requisite to automation. Any controls engineer will tell you why.

 

[ytz]

They will also buy millions of cubic meters of Natural gas.

Never said they wouldn't buy any at all. But how much and who they buy it from is quite relevant. The idea that they would tie their national destiny to us is quite flawed. Especially now that Russia is their bitch....err resource colony. And even there they have specific rules that limit energy imports from any one country to something like 15% I believe. A rule they put in post-Ukraine sanctions.

Yet the experts say by 2050 India will triple their Natural gas use. They are spending 4.9 billion on natural gas pipeline infrastructure in the next few years. Definitely not a country shying away from Foreign LNG.

Same experts who think every Indian is going to be driving an F150 in 30 years? India will buy more LNG. But again how much and from whom is very debatable. Their government is also going all out to catch China on renewables. In no small part because they want the manufacturing jobs involved. How many experts have accounted for all these policies in their plans?

They also have little to any safety standards or human rights. They don't care if they build a leaky nuke plant.

Not that much of this is true (how many nuclear accidents have the Chinese had?). But if it is, that only makes it easier for them to avoid imports.

I doubt NG and Coal will be a thing of the past in our life time.

Never said they will be a thing of the past. But who supplies is very debatable. And if the growth markets decided it won't be Canada (for all kinds of reasons) then that caps growth here.

Until electric vehicles pay their full share of tax then we don't know what the actual costs are.

There's no "we" here. That's your personal view. Millions of consumers are actually going and buying them globally. And the companies that are electrifying aren't morons. Nobody buys 100 000 EVs by sticking their thumb in the air and seeing which direction the wind is blowing. They have more data on cost of operation than you would ever consider assessing about your own vehicle.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Are you under the impression that utilities will look at growing demand for their product and think this is a problem?

No. I'm under the impression politics will limit what utilities are permitted to do, or impose requirements that divert utilities from following the most pro-growth path. I've been pro-tech since about 1982. I favour the ideas of Julian Simon, not Paul Erlich. But politics doesn't respect ordinary economic incentives.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Are you under the impression that Chinese Communist Party is so concerned about air pollution that they will accept the creation of a strategic vulnerability in the form of dependence for energy on a virtual colony of the US?

I'm under the impression the CCP is responsive to political unrest, and know with certainty that ordinary people care about air quality. The CCP already accepted a strategic vulnerability in the amount of US public debt they bought. The CCP obviously doesn't think Canada is a mere US colony, or they wouldn't put so much effort into subverting our politics. Regardless, Canada doesn't have to be their only fuel provider.

I will never understand how people can look at America's obsession about energy independence and fail to understand that other countries (particularly other major powers) can have the same idea.

Sure, everyone can try. Not everyone will succeed. I'm confident China is still going to be bound to foreign trade, including in fuels, for decades to come.

 

[Good2Golf]

China alone is building more nuclear power plants than the rest of the world combined. And more renewables than the EU and US combined every year. And they are largely going to transition their coal plants to swing capacity and seasonal reserves. That's their plan.

Which is where Canada and other nations should be heading too. SMRs will help the electricity generation at source issue.

The challenge space will remain mobility/transport energy storage…the developing trends at the moment is chemical electricical storage (batteries), but they still have a notably toxic composition and significant upstream environmental impact. The future is (some like me would like to think) unquestioningly hydrogen…FCEVs for transport, and hybrid FCEA/turbofan/shaft aircraft. If I lived in one of the Canadian cities with consumer hydrogen filling stations, I’d have an FCEV in my garage right now.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Which is where Canada and other nations should be heading too. SMRs will help the electricity generation at source issue.

The challenge space will remain mobility/transport energy storage…the developing trends at the moment is chemical electricical storage (batteries), but they still have a notably toxic composition and significant upstream environmental impact. The future is (some like me would like to think) unquestioningly hydrogen…FCEVs for transport, and hybrid FCEA/turbofan/shaft aircraft. If I lived in one of the Canadian cities with consumer hydrogen filling stations, I’d have an FCEV in my garage right now.

Fusion, lad, fusion.

 

[Good2Golf]

Fusion, lad, fusion.

Net efficiency yes, but Q needs to increase meaningfully for practical implementation.

I give it still another 20 years before we see that. Conceptually it isn’t at all hard to imagine. The practical implementation is the tough part.