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For those looking for a more in-depth analysis of Xi Jinping, the man, this - a series of podcasts by Sue-Lin Wong in The Economist, might be of interest.
Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
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FJAG
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I wonder if they've also evaluated the West's slipping stocks of such weapons and it's limited capability to quickly ramp up production. Sustainment of critical systems seems to be the West's weak link.
It strikes me that Iran and Turkey are producing more of certain systems, albeit ones with less than equal performance, which are adequate for several major roles.
Brad Sallows
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I suspect an attempted invasion of Taiwan would be decided in the first few days by air and naval forces, and that ample ammunition exists for that period of time.
FJAG
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Isn't that what Russia thought a half a year ago?
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What about the possible approach of a low intensity environment where the PLA decides to 'starve out' the island by blocking food, oil, gas, vital supplies. Basically a blockade.
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For a myopic, deluded view of a three-day action leading to a victory parade in Kyiv, yes…more than enough munitions.
For in incredibly ill-assessed, planned and executed action lasting 70 times (and counting) duration of the intended quick op, clearly a faulty Estimate/Appreciation.
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I don’t think the West (serious countries that is) have seriously depleted their stocks.
LocMart, Raytheon etc have been double timing it on replacements even before the USG pumped a bunch of new contracts to them.
In the land of the Blind, the One Eyed Man is KingIt strikes me that Iran and Turkey are producing more of certain systems, albeit ones with less than equal performance, which are adequate for several major roles.
Brad Sallows
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The reason I think there's enough ammunition is that I also think the air and naval platforms needed to fire it will suffer losses more consequential than a tank here and a couple of IFVs there.
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Reminds me of an old Russian Proverb.I don’t think the West (serious countries that is) have seriously depleted their stocks.
LocMart, Raytheon etc have been double timing it on replacements even before the USG pumped a bunch of new contracts to them.
In the land of the Blind, the One Eyed Man is King
One day a peasant is out fishing and he catches a huge pike. Before he gaffs the pike it speaks to him and says 'wait, I'm a magical pike, I can grant you 1 wish.' At first the peasant is confused and can't believe his luck. As he starts to speak and tell the pike of his 1 wish, the pike stops him and say's, 'be careful what you wish for, because whatever you ask for, I will grant your worst enemy double what I grant you.' So the peasant stops and begins to think, long and careful before he asks for his 1 wish. He then says to the pike, 'I'm ready, for my 1 wish, I want you to poke out 1 of my eyes'......
Chinese antics around Taiwan may well be a smoke show. The real take over is likely happening inside Taiwan. I don't know much about Taiwanese politics but China is likely working hard to get a foothold on the next possible president. Tsai Ing-wen the incumbent is ineligible to run again.whoever wins may well just allow China to come in and take over without firing a shot. The right leverage and they can control anyone.
Colin Parkinson
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They were slowly succeeding on that, then they doubled down on HK and combined with the treatment of the Uyghurs. Now no one is in doubt what the "One China, Two One System" is going to look like. A big shift away from interconnection with the Mainland has taken place.
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Nothing to see here folks...
Opinion: Why are Chinese police operating in Canada, while our own government and security services apparently look the other way?
Why are Chinese police operating in Canada, while our own government and security services apparently look the other way?
Opinion: Why are Chinese police operating in Canada, while our own government and security services apparently look the other way?
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Vlad may not be the only one with restless support.
I guess you can only make enemies of your neighbours for so long before somebody takes notice.
tippinsights.com
I guess you can only make enemies of your neighbours for so long before somebody takes notice.
President Xi, Schooled By The Oldest Veteran
A 105-year-old party senior delivers Xi a message. Reform and opening up is China's only route, argues Song Ping.
tippinsights.com
OldSolduer
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Has the party senior survived long enough or will he survive to see 106? Or will the poor comrade perish ?Vlad may not be the only one with restless support.
I guess you can only make enemies of your neighbours for so long before somebody takes notice.
President Xi, Schooled By The Oldest Veteran
A 105-year-old party senior delivers Xi a message. Reform and opening up is China's only route, argues Song Ping.
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I was wondering if @Edward Campbell had any insight on the original article - any sense of the validity of the claims there.
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More from The Economist:
"China was once, centuries ago, the world’s biggest economy. Many analysts expect it to regain that distinction in due course. But a host of difficulties besetting the Asian giant, some of which are self-inflicted, will delay the day it overtakes America to return to pole position. A growing number of economists now think that day may never arrive ... [and] ... China’s population is over four times bigger than America’s. Its economy could therefore surpass America’s in scale long before it matches it in sophistication. Its GDP per person needs to reach only a quarter of America’s for its total GDP to become the biggest in the world. By one measure, China has already achieved that modest feat. Its GDP overtook America’s in 2016 when translated into dollars at “purchasing-power parity”, a method that tries to tally up the goods and services in each country using the same international prices."
But, "China’s GDP still lags far behind America’s when converted into dollars using the more familiar exchange rates that prevail in the currency markets. It reached $17.7trn in 2021 compared with America’s $23trn. And China’s growth has been hampered by its zero-covid policy (which responds to every outbreak of the virus with severe lockdowns) as well as a property slump, unreformed state-owned enterprises and a continuing tech war with America. The government’s aggressive regulation of previously booming sectors, such as tech and education, has also depressed the mood. China’s economy expanded by an impressive 8.1% in 2021, but it will be lucky to grow by even 3% this year ... and] ... In the longer term, China’s ageing population will mean further difficulties. The workforce could shrink by 15% over the next 15 years, according to some estimates. Capital Economics, a consultancy, thinks China’s GDP might draw close to America’s or even surpass it by the mid-2030s only to fall behind again as its demographic decline asserts itself."
Finally: "One of the hardest and most neglected questions in this debate is what will happen to the exchange rate between the two countries and to prices within them. Goods and services in China are still substantially cheaper than in America on average. If China does continue to narrow the productivity gap with America, its prices should also converge, either through a stronger currency or faster inflation. These movements can make a big difference. Goldman Sachs, for example, predicts that China’s GDP will exceed $38trn in 2031, at the prices and exchange rates prevailing in that year. That would be more than double its present total and enough to make it the world’s biggest economy. But not all of that elevation will come from economic growth. Much of it will also come from higher prices and currency appreciation. According to the forecast, China’s GDP will be about 47% bigger in real terms in 2031 than it was ten years earlier (an average growth rate of less than 4% a year). Its prices will be roughly 30% higher, and its exchange rate will be almost 13% stronger. It is the combination of these three factors, rather than growth alone, that will determine whether China ever becomes the world’s undisputed economic heavyweight champion. "
"China was once, centuries ago, the world’s biggest economy. Many analysts expect it to regain that distinction in due course. But a host of difficulties besetting the Asian giant, some of which are self-inflicted, will delay the day it overtakes America to return to pole position. A growing number of economists now think that day may never arrive ... [and] ... China’s population is over four times bigger than America’s. Its economy could therefore surpass America’s in scale long before it matches it in sophistication. Its GDP per person needs to reach only a quarter of America’s for its total GDP to become the biggest in the world. By one measure, China has already achieved that modest feat. Its GDP overtook America’s in 2016 when translated into dollars at “purchasing-power parity”, a method that tries to tally up the goods and services in each country using the same international prices."
But, "China’s GDP still lags far behind America’s when converted into dollars using the more familiar exchange rates that prevail in the currency markets. It reached $17.7trn in 2021 compared with America’s $23trn. And China’s growth has been hampered by its zero-covid policy (which responds to every outbreak of the virus with severe lockdowns) as well as a property slump, unreformed state-owned enterprises and a continuing tech war with America. The government’s aggressive regulation of previously booming sectors, such as tech and education, has also depressed the mood. China’s economy expanded by an impressive 8.1% in 2021, but it will be lucky to grow by even 3% this year ... and] ... In the longer term, China’s ageing population will mean further difficulties. The workforce could shrink by 15% over the next 15 years, according to some estimates. Capital Economics, a consultancy, thinks China’s GDP might draw close to America’s or even surpass it by the mid-2030s only to fall behind again as its demographic decline asserts itself."
Finally: "One of the hardest and most neglected questions in this debate is what will happen to the exchange rate between the two countries and to prices within them. Goods and services in China are still substantially cheaper than in America on average. If China does continue to narrow the productivity gap with America, its prices should also converge, either through a stronger currency or faster inflation. These movements can make a big difference. Goldman Sachs, for example, predicts that China’s GDP will exceed $38trn in 2031, at the prices and exchange rates prevailing in that year. That would be more than double its present total and enough to make it the world’s biggest economy. But not all of that elevation will come from economic growth. Much of it will also come from higher prices and currency appreciation. According to the forecast, China’s GDP will be about 47% bigger in real terms in 2031 than it was ten years earlier (an average growth rate of less than 4% a year). Its prices will be roughly 30% higher, and its exchange rate will be almost 13% stronger. It is the combination of these three factors, rather than growth alone, that will determine whether China ever becomes the world’s undisputed economic heavyweight champion. "
Globe & Mail, go
Why do I have to create a free account just to read a news article? Like really? If I can read the article with an account that is free…why make me create it in the first place?
<This. This is the type of stupid nonsense which just creates a hassle for people, nothing more.>
Colin Parkinson
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10 years ago, my friend who did a lot of business there remarked that the Chinese were "offshoring" production as internal Chinese labour costs were raising and Chinese workers expected a higher wage and benfits.
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That was and, as far as I can see, still is the case. The Philippines was one of the bigger beneficiaries.
It seemed, to me, that while South Korea (and Taiwan) learned to work smarter and smarter, China just hiked wages. I remember a visit to Korea (mid 1990s) where I saw massive automation, but many, many well paid workers supporting and maintaining the robotic systems. In China I just saw the same old, same old but with annual wage increases. That was not how Deng Xiaoping hoped it would work.
Another anecdote from the early 2000s - the Technion (one of the world's best schools, better in the opinion many experts, that either CalTech or MIT) had the same number of Post Doc vacancies for South Korea (pop: 50 million, Taiwan (pop: 20 million) and China (pop: 1 Billion plus).
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