Moderna slashing vaccine deliveries to Canada, but Pfizer steps up with 8 million more doses
Moderna will send far fewer COVID-19 shots to Canada this month than originally planned as the company grapples with production issues at its facilities in Europe.
But its main competitor, Pfizer — which also produces a highly effective mRNA vaccine against the novel coronavirus — has said it will send millions more doses to Canada in May, June and beyond, a commitment that will more than cover the shortfall from Moderna.
Yes. I congratulate Ontario for meeting the Canadian average. It would be too much to ask them to be at the 25 percent Quebec is at, but they have reached the Canadian average which is a accomplishment. Bravo Ontario and Doug Ford.
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So what is it, Altair? Does Ontario get credit for getting 22% partially-vaccinated now? 22% for Canada seems to deserve credit, so what is it?
Real-time COVID-19 vaccination updates for every region in Canada, tracking doses of Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine delivered and administered to Canadians.
Being wrong isn't bad. I was skeptical that we'd even have vaccines to start trials any earlier than Jan 2021. Instead, trials were well under way by the end of last summer and, if more expedited approval processes and some risk-taking had been accepted, vaccinations could easily have started by early last fall if not earlier. Authorities are still too risk-averse, but the tools are there if they will just stop flinching so much.
One needs to be risk averse, as the public is largely untrusting of rushed vaccines. Lets be clear, these are largely experimental, and did not go through the regulatory hoops that they usually do.
AZ is not trusted. Largely due to rare blood clots, but despite being rare and potential blood clots from it still being a better outcome than death or severe illness from covid, people don't trust it.
Real-time COVID-19 vaccination updates for every region in Canada, tracking doses of Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine delivered and administered to Canadians.
Right on, thanks. I was using an official government of Canada public health website. I wonder if the volunteer-run website you're using is more accurate.
I just heard in Ontario police officers can now randomly stop me and question me why I'm not at home and give me a $750 fine if they don't like my answer. That's cool. Definitely a sign that we're doing good and things are getting better.
How does not getting vaccines earlier, and not being able to vaccinate people earlier, when as a result (and every medical expert will concur) hospitalization cases and deaths soar.................... mean the line is meaningless and does not matter?. I am truly not following your logic.
The line is meaningless because you are screwed one way or another.
The Canadian peers who got the "early" vaccines ahead of us are also suffering from a third wave.
Italy is in lockdown.
France is in lockdown.
Germany is in lockdown.
Spain is in lockdown.
So what did getting more vaccines than us get them? The same results. In truth, the early numbers from Pfizer and Moderna were but a drop in the bucket of what was needed, and only two G20 countries got ahead of the third wave, the UK and USA, and it had nothing to do with where they were in line.
So I will say it again, the line did not matter. Production of vaccines were only going to ramp up in march, so the pittance our peers got ahead of us were not going to change a thing.
Also to note, even while the UK was mass producing vaccines in december and january they were under a massive and strict country wide lockdown to drive their numbers down.
Let us remember, these vaccines are not 100 percent effective. People who get them can still get sick with covid. I think after the first dose, 1 out of 5 can still get it. So driving down community spread along with vaccines was always going to be the only way out of this. Some hotspots in the states are still driving up cases, which is why even though they have vaccinated 3 times more people than us, they have only just edged ahead in cases per 100k
What I am most concerned about is that all governments (only in Canada) thinks it is suitable to delay the second dose to four months contrary to the manufacturer’s specifications. All in an attempt to say “Look how many have their first jabs” in a more timely matter than if we were to stick with 4 weeks. While there was some studies that showed delaying the second dose would be ok, I don’t think it suggested four months was ok, not that it warranted a population-wide experiment without consent. While anecdotal, my mother alone knows of two people who got seriously sick with COVID (i.e. put in ICU) more than 4 weeks after their first dose.
Is politics the reason why our governments are delaying the second doses contrary to manufacturer’s specs? Like I said, AFAIK no other country is doing this. This is absolutely reprehensible.
Right on, thanks. I was using an official government of Canada public health website. I wonder if the volunteer-run website you're using is more accurate.
More promised vaccines than before.
I just heard in Ontario police officers can now randomly stop me and question me why I'm not at home and give me a $750 fine if they don't like my answer. That's cool. Definitely a sign that we're doing good and things are getting better.
+4M for May (total of 8.1M)
+2M for June (total of 6M as they do 4.1M per month)
+2M for July (total of 6M as they do 4.1M per month)
That accounts for the new Pfizer contract, but the July numbers are irrelevant because the PM said we'd have 44M doses delivered by June. Your June doses are also too high because you're compounding, not adding. Standard delivery schedule has been 4.1M doses per month, roughly 1M doses per week, moving up slowly in 10s of thousands increments.
We're 22M doses short for 44M by end of May (even though the PM said "By June" which means before June). You add Pfizer's +4 and +2 above the standard 4.1M per month, and add Moderna's June numbers which are not published but typically in the 2M range we get a grand total of 12M extra/June doses, giving us a delta of 10M, or close to 23%.
All of this math actually just shows how terrible of a contract we signed originally. Having 5 doses of vaccine per Canadian is irrelevant if they show up a year or more after the rest of the world is vaccinated. We had to steal doses from third world countries to pump numbers up. Canada was truly at the back of the line.
That accounts for the new Pfizer contract, but the July numbers are irrelevant because the PM said we'd have 44M doses delivered by June. Your June doses are also too high because you're compounding, not adding. Standard delivery schedule has been 4.1M doses per month, roughly 1M doses per week, moving up slowly in 10s of thousands increments.
We're 22M doses short for 44M by end of May (even though the PM said "By June" which means before June). You add Pfizer's +4 and +2 above the standard 4.1M per month, and add Moderna's June numbers which are not published but typically in the 2M range we get a grand total of 12M extra/June doses, giving us a delta of 10M, or close to 23%.
Having 5 doses of vaccine per Canadian is irrelevant if they show up a year or more after the rest of the world is vaccinated. We had to steal doses from third world countries to pump numbers up. Canada was truly at the back of the line.
What I am most concerned about is that all governments (only in Canada) thinks it is suitable to delay the second dose to four months contrary to the manufacturer’s specifications. All in an attempt to say “Look how many have their first jabs” in a more timely matter than if we were to stick with 4 weeks. While there was some studies that showed delaying the second dose would be ok, I don’t think it suggested four months was ok, not that it warranted a population-wide experiment without consent. While anecdotal, my mother alone knows of two people who got seriously sick with COVID (i.e. put in ICU) more than 4 weeks after their first dose.
Is politics the reason why our governments are delaying the second doses contrary to manufacturer’s specs? Like I said, AFAIK no other country is doing this. This is absolutely reprehensible.
In percentage of single doses? Sure. In percentage of full vaccination? Not a chance. In new COVID cases and struggling ICU capacity? We're leading the charge.
I guess the data is only the data that you want it to be, to confirm the bias you have. Not the real numbers and the real situation. We needed vaccines 2 months ago, not 2 months from now.
These two numbers will start to converge in september. Again, we need to vaccinate 30.5 million Canadians, so 61 million vaccines are needed. We will have 50 million by July.
Along with those like Germany and France. I will agree about ICU capacity, but thats due to our shitty single tier system being unable to have a proper ICU to general population ratio before this madness started. The best healthcare systems are the two tier systems in Europe, and even they have taken a beating, our single tier system was always vulnerable to being overwhelmed.
Everyone needed vaccines 2 months ago. We are on par with our peers, which is all you can expect.
I don't expect Canada to get the most medals at the Olympics.
I don't expect Canada to have the largest army, biggest air force, or most ships.
I don't expect Canada to manufacture the most cars.
I don't expect Canada to grow the most oranges.
But I do expect Canada to perform respectfully when judged against its peers. And so far we are. We are not a superpower. We don't have the leftover infrastructure from being a global empire. The fact that we can compare favorably to Europe is reasonable to me. To be beating the Aussies and New Zealanders is a bonus.
For you to expect Canada to be on par with the two vaccine superpowers of the USA and UK only shows that you have unrealistic expectations, or have a talking point shared by a certain political party and will continue to repeat it regardless of how Canada does.
The biggest chokepoint seems to be in actually vaccinating people. Is the province of Ontario limited to vaccinating 100,000+/- a day? I do not understand why appointments are being cancelled due to lack of vaccine when there is 1.2 M stockpiled. Is there a trucking issue?
There is a lot of funny back and forth on here based on incomplete information and misconceptions. Some folks should slow down a bit as you're just jamming the means.
1. The concept of a "getting in line for vaccines" can be unhelpful, the reality is that different countries have different contracts with pharmaceutical companies. These contracts stipulate things like guaranteed delivery schedules. These contracts are close hold, but one could extrapolate that countries that are quicker to sign vaccine procurement contracts and/or agree to pay a premium will get a better contract with preferential access to limited supply. Case in point is the secret to Israel's lack of supply issues.
Order early, pay a lot, digitize distribution and stretch the supply. That is how Israel came to be a leader of the world's COVID-19 vaccination drive, reaching nearly 15 per cent of the country's 9.3 million population in about two weeks.
www.ctvnews.ca
2. I'm always suspicious of comparisons with other countries. Israel was held up as the exemplar, but Israel is smaller than most of our provinces, has a unitary state (which means no federal/provincial coordination requirements), only requires one central warehouse, and has a road network that enables a vaccine arriving in country to be moved anywhere in a few hours. Compare this to some of the challenges faced in Canada. Context is important.
3. Despite the kink in supply in February, the rate of supply and vaccination has been increasing significantly across the country. The target date in July wasn't briefed off a hunch or a wing and a prayer. Based on the continuous increase of supply and the rates of vaccination across the country (provinces are moving through 10-year age cohorts roughly every 1 to 1.5 weeks), there is no convincing evidence to suggest Canada won't make its stated goal of having a dose for all adult Canadians by July.
4. The rollout of vaccines is accelerated by the decision to delay the second dose. This is not a "trick to look better" or a "mass experiment," but was rather informed by hard data examined in detail by the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI). This is a conscious decision to try and get as many people a very good degree of protection first to reduce the effects of the pandemic. For those who are skeptical, I encourage you to read their recommendations and the evidence behind it.
Guidance for equitable, ethical, and efficient allocation of authorized COVID-19 vaccines in the context of staggered arrival of vaccine supply.
www.canada.ca
5. For those who are concerned about Astrazenca's efficacy numbers, remember that some protection is better than none at this point, and consider that many other vaccines we traditionally accept with no issues have lower effectiveness rates.
According to a Feb. 21 <i>Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report</i> from the CDC, the current influenza vaccine has been 45% effective overall against 2019-2020 seasonal influenza A and B viruses.
www.aafp.org
6. For those worried about clotting, compare the number of people who had problems to the number of people who have received the Astrazeneca vaccine. Compare that percentage with some more common risks that we readily accept and then come back to me. For those pointing to cases of infection after vaccination, remember that ALL vaccines have a certain degree of effectiveness. This means that it won't work for some, as every immune system is different. You shouldn't be surprised that some folks will get vaccinated and still get sick, but you should be comforted by the fact that these vaccines are showing to be very good so far.
7. A lot of people seem to be thinking that various governments are "hiding vaccines in fridges" or "unable to administer doses." Ontario seems to really get accused of this a lot. I'd argue that people making these arguments likely misunderstand how a supply chain works, and that a vaccine that arrives in Canada from overseas isn't readily available to stick in an arm. There is always vaccine "in the system" as it moves through the pipeline. An official from Ontario did a great job of explaining his provinces situation on Twitter which is worth the read:
8. While it is clear that the situation with the pandemic in mid-April is not rosy, largely due to the influx of SARS-Cov-2 variants into the country, we shouldn't mix assessments of "pandemic situation" with "vaccination rollout." Is Canada's rollout perfect? No, of course not, and I'll be interested to see the forensics of the effort once this is all behind us. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. As someone indicated earlier, Canada and the World have benefited from a remarkably quick development of vaccines that DID NOT cut corners and relied on a couple decades of cutting edge mRNA work. The world's S&T base is doing what it needs to do. Canada has a steady supply of good vaccines now, and supply is ramping up. Despite some bumps in the road, Canada appears to be moving from "vaccine may be coming soon" back in November of 2020 to "all Canadians should all be able to get vaccinated by end September" in January of 2021 to "all Canadians should be able to get vaccinated by July." Despite the doom and gloom I read here, and the continued cynicism, when you step back for a bit, the forecast for Canada has improved significantly over the last 6 months after a terrible 2020.
MGen Fortin indicated that we are getting over a million doses a week in Canada. Why don't we all come back at the end of May and see where things are at.
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