CDN/US Covid-related political discussion

[FJAG]

Since I haven't seen it posted, here's the US Government's phased plan to reopen their economy post-COVID-19. It's not the full document, just designed as a synopsis.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Generally the plan seems reasonable although I note the glaring absence of any direction (or even recommendation) for masking. I know masks aren't fool proof, but considering that there are multitudes of carriers whose every breath spreads the virus, masking does help minimize spread.

I wish I knew whether the reluctance to mask is as a result of the low number of masks available in our western society (and wishing to preserve scarce supplies for health care workers) or whether it's a basic societal prejudice that has always existed in the past even during the worst flu seasons.

We desperately need a domestic supply of vast quantities of readily accessible cheap masks that will reduce our transmission of respiratory diseases in the future together with an education campaign that at the very least makes it socially acceptable that at the first sign of a sniffle you don a mask. I spent three years working in the hovels of NDHQ and you could watch the colds progress through the hallways with every committee or team meeting held. We can't eliminate that but we can reduce that. Certainly care workers for the vulnerable should be required to wear masks during these seasons.

:cheers:

 

[FJAG]

The "greater good", in the tension between public health and economic health, does not obviously lie on the side of the former.

On that we agree albeit the question is where the line is to be drawn.

I've said this many times before, I'm a fiscal conservative. I'm already starting to wonder how the country will deal with the financial consequences of the stimulus efforts needed to reasonably protect the economy. My guess is that we'll get F-35s and new patrol frigates when we're down to one F-18 and one current frigate each. Conversely I see new and wonderful taxes dreamed up by the Liberals.

:cheers:

 

[blacktriangle]

On that we agree albeit the question is where the line is to be drawn.

I've said this many times before, I'm a fiscal conservative. I'm already starting to wonder how the country will deal with the financial consequences of the stimulus efforts needed to reasonably protect the economy. My guess is that we'll get F-35s and new patrol frigates when we're down to one F-18 and one current frigate each. Conversely I see new and wonderful taxes dreamed up by the Liberals.

:cheers:

Maybe the final nail in the coffin for public sector defined-benefit pension plans?

 

[MilEME09]

Well NATO has taken notice that they all forgot a small part of the North Atlantic treaty saying that member nations need to be self sufficient in times of crisis in certain sectors, including the medical field. A collective oh crap could be heard from Brussels I bet. This will lead to a global shift in manufacturing, we are creating the capability now for our own masks and ventilators, we just have to keep at it. Especially masks, with our domestic pulp industry, we can easily mass produce without disrupting our own supply chain.

 

[FJAG]

... Especially masks, with our domestic pulp industry, we can easily mass produce without disrupting our own supply chain.

It strikes me that much PPE (like the masks) can be primarily machine manufactured so wouldn't benefit from the labour cost differential between here and China. Strikes me with some government seed money and a guaranteed stockpile replenishment rate one ought to be able to do it locally at only a minor cost increase.

:cheers:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Maybe the final nail in the coffin for public sector defined-benefit pension plans?

About the only reason left to work for the feds, they can't pay you properly, they can't run any working IT system, they are reducing and eliminating your office space to work in, bosses are becoming increasingly disconnected from the work, the pay scale for anything but clerical is nowhere near industry levels. The deal used to be Lower pay, better benefits, stable work and a good pension, that was used to attract very competent technical people from industry, tired of the rat race. Now they can't offer much of anything, which is why you can't find Inspectors with masters tickets as nobody wants to work with the Public Service.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Bear in mind the extraordinary government transfers are not really stimulus; stimulus is when there are goods and services to be consumed but people are not spending.  Currently, people lack ordinary opportunities to consume; what is in place is relief - or, in some contexts, what amounts to bridge loans / financing / grants.  All the money governments push out is going to increase the cash supply at a time when production is pinched (right now, I suppose the short-term contraction in cash on hand for many people and businesses is still offsetting government push, which is still building up).  The expected result of more money chasing fewer goods and services should be price inflation.

 

[Remius]

Maybe the final nail in the coffin for public sector defined-benefit pension plans?

Not sure that will happen but I expect cuts at all levels.

Hiring freezes.

Class B cuts.

No real new initiatives (except maybe working from from home will be more common)

GST hike

Student hiring going away

If anyone thought double dipping might come back...

Etc etc.

 

[FJAG]

Maybe we'll finally cut DND/CAF HQ numbers.

(Not holding my breath)

;D

 

[mariomike]

Maybe the final nail in the coffin for public sector defined-benefit pension plans?

I replied in a non-US presidency discussion.

But, basically if already receiving a Defined Benefit pension, such as OMERS, the message we received now, and always have, is not to worry.

Emphasis being on "already receiving".

Of course, human nature being what it is, people will worry.

See also,

Future of Government Pensions
https://army.ca/forums/threads/91361.0
24 pages.

 

[MilEME09]

Maybe we'll finally cut DND/CAF HQ numbers.

(Not holding my breath)

;D

We both know the people who decide to make the cuts won't cut them selves

 

[Journeyman]

South Dakota's governor has been one of the most vocal for keeping her state open.

Just got an update from the folks running the Sturgis motorcycle rally -- a village of under 7K pers, which has been getting +/- 750K bikers for the first week in August;  this year was expected to be higher because it's the 80th anniversary.

They're still looking at running the bike rally, as of yesterday.

:brickwall:


[Edit: changed anniversary from 75th to 80th.  I should have remembered; I was there for the 75th (plus, 68th, 70th, 73rd...).  I guess that brain cell was self-isolating]

 

[Spencer100]

Referring to the responses I will take them into mindful consideration.  Note to self: do not get into an argument on Army.CA. You will lose! They are much smarter than you.  Lol.

I have always thought the discussion on this site one of the better on the internet.  Back to posting links.

 

[mariomike]

Just got an update from the folks running the Sturgis motorcycle rally -- a village of under 7K pers, which has been getting +/- 750K bikers for the first week in August;  this year was expected to be higher because it's the 75 anniversary.

They're still looking at running the bike rally, as of yesterday.

:brickwall:

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I spotted the GEICO gecko right away, do I get a prize?

 

[Remius]

I spotted the GEICO gecko right away, do I get a prize?

I spotted the lady with no shirt on.  Not a pretty sight...

 

[FJAG]

My eyes! My eyes! Still looking for the Gecko.

;D

 

[CBH99]

I spotted the lady with no shirt on.  Not a pretty sight...

I wasn't even looking for a topless woman until you mentioned it. 

Why did you have to trick my little primate brain into looking for her?  On behalf of my eyes, I'm low key upset with you  :boke:

 

[Eaglelord17]

Why do you all believe this government is going to do any spending cuts after this? There has been no real incentive for the government to manage our debt for decades now (it wasn't even a key point in the last election campaigns), why would that change? The reality is most people are so far in debt in their personal life they don't care about the government being in debt. As I have listened to these sad people, there logic is that cutting back is just a 'loss of services' and shouldn't happen. Democracy is only as good as the citizens within it, and ours are raised with a silver spoon in their mouth, not understanding how much that debt actually hurts them (such as the fact over the last 20 years the amount of money we have paid in interest could have paid off our debt in full). Its crazy to think if we didn't have debt that first year in power for JT wouldn't have had a 35 billion dollar deficit, it would have been a neutral year.

My prediction is once all this is over they shall just carry on as though over 100 billion dollars of debt had never been added.

 

[Remius]

It will for a while.  Possibly into the next election cycle.

But after the recession in the early 90s a few years later we saw deep cuts to the CAF, the PS and the provinces followed suit a few years after since they cut transfer payments and ownloaded programs to them.

In 2008 after the recession we saw big cuts again.  Half the Class Bs in the CAF were cut 2 years after and the PS went through the deficit reduction action plan. 

I think the LPC might win the next election in say 2years maybe given the circumstances.  They won’t campaign on austerity.  The CPC will.

Several provincial governments are Conservative.  I expect they will also win their next cycle.  They already campaigned on fiscal prudence and will likely double down.

So yeah, in 5 years or so I see the start of some form of austerity measures.  I expect the CAF to take a hard hit.