CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Kirkhill]

The Canadian commitment to NATO 2% says you're wrong. Canada has displayed master class dithering across all governments. Trump has forced the issue he thinks is important to be the top priority for others. Not a single Canadian politician is now waking up in the morning and not thinking about Trump's tariff threats. Trump's chaotic approach has forced Canada's hand where the normal reaction would have been platitudes and can kicking (the 'we'll meet 2% by the year 2085' kind of bs).

But dithering is.

Making decisions isn't.

That is the essence of Canada. In all fields.

All it takes is for somebody to start generating headlines and our politicians scuttle. We love our consensus and turf people with convictions as scary and/or arrogant. That applies to both teams red and blue.

 

[Good2Golf]

The problem for Canada is that it's not just that it doesn't meet, it's at the very bottom. Secondly, Canada's contribution (or lack of) directly impacts defence of North America which is of prime concern for the US. So the issues created by Canada are far more compounded for the US than other NATO countries.

We should know by now that Trump will wield any stick (trade issues etc) he can to achieve the outcomes (defence spending, access etc) he's looking for.

Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…

BBC has good coverage of the tariff issues today.

Trump threatens 200% tariff on alcohol from EU countries - latest

The US president says it will happen unless the EU stops a "nasty 50% tariff on whisky".

www.bbc.com

Lots of European focus today of course, but very importantly, earlier today Lutnick was commenting about what’s on the table and what’s not:



Steel, aluminum, and probably cars- we’re in this for the long haul, and Trump may ride those tariffs all the way to and through certain industries crashing.

Trump also spoke further on Canada in the past hour:

Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need ).

 

[QV]

I also estimate that Carney will be the one most likely to negotiate a closer CAN/USA relationship. He favored the EU over BREXIT, I could see him leading the charge to make "NAU" happen.

 

[QV]

Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…


Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need ).

10's of billions is probably not enough to Trump. He wants to see 100's. That kind of scale up.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I can be in favour of certain aspects of this. Such as, a Schegen like agreement on standards of individuals being granted the privilege to enter into North America, a 'commonality approach' between us. I could be potentially in favour of allowing citizens (not certain if I'm on board with 'landed immigrants, green card holders, individuals on student visa or international recognised refugees or alyssum seekers and of course undocumented individuals) to freely cross the border.

I also estimate that Carney will be the one most likely to negotiate a closer CAN/USA relationship. He favored the EU over BREXIT, I could see him leading the charge to make "NAU" happen.

 

[Good2Golf]

10's of billions is probably not enough to Trump. He wants to see 100's. That kind of scale up.

Over the life of the programs it will be 100s of billions, but at this rate, I’d trust the Europeans more not to screw us over, so I’d gladly transition from USD to EUR…

 

[QV]

Over the life of the programs it will be 100s of billions, but at this rate, I’d trust the Europeans more not to screw us over, so I’d gladly transition from USD to EUR…

Again, saying we'll spend XX now but over 40 years it will be XXX might not be enough.

And I wouldn't get your hopes up trusting the EU more than the US, it doesn't look too shit hot over there. The Americans are and will remain our closest and most trusted ally despite the temporary orange wrecking ball.

Our biggest challenge is to obtain a credible military for a G7 in the shortest amount of time. One of the ways to raise the funds for that is through our resources. And will includes supplying one of the world's largest economies - the US.

 

[KevinB]

Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…

But 1.34% for FY25 is still nowhere near 2%, and Canada is absolutely nowhere near the 20% of DND Budget for Capital Equipment purchases.

While I do not agree with P47's Tariff approach, Canada is a Defense Freeloader, and has been for decades.

Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need ).

Who needs power after all

 

[dapaterson]

We already are or at least were economically integrated under CUSMA.

We can rename it the Canada Usa Mexico Strategic Trade Alliance Integrated Network.

 

[QV]

But 1.34% for FY25 is still nowhere near 2%, and Canada is absolutely nowhere near the 20% of DND Budget for Capital Equipment purchases.

While I do not agree with P47's Tariff approach, Canada is a Defense Freeloader, and has been for decades.

How would you deal with the decades of freeloading? Considering the history of platitudes and now all of the things going on (Russia, massive debt for US, etc), what would you do to compel a big jump in defence spending of your allies?

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899666113861918943