CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia

[Pikache]

Crimea and the Donbass both have majority Russian populations and Russia was likely pretty confident that there wouldn't be any major resistance by the locals to their "liberation". I don't think the situation in the Baltic States would be the same. And as others here have mentioned, the NATO tripwire defence is more about forcing Russia to kill a bunch of NATO soldiers in order to take the territory.

A better investment in my mind would be to provide civil and economic support to strengthen the Baltic States. If the people of these countries (especially the Russian minorities there) feel they have a better life within the existing system then they would under Russian rule, then Moscow will have little opportunity to try and spark some kind of hybrid intrusion into the Baltics.

It's a bit of different story to compare Russian demographics of Crimea/Donbas vs Latvia. Crimea and Donbas had majority ethnic Russians while in Latvia, very few, and only adding to small total area of Latvia is ethnic Russian majority. (Of coincidentally, Riga has the most significant concentration of ethnic Russians in Latvia) So, it would be very messy for Russians to use protection of ethnic Russians as an excuse to stage some kind of take over of (parts) of Latvia.

I think Latvian government is also addressing the civil grievance of ethnic Russians living in Latvians, of one of biggest complaint is that a lot of ethnic Russians have a hard time to get Latvian citizenship. So, the Latvian govt is working towards making it easier at least for the kids of Russians to get Latvian citizenship. (Funny enough, ethnic Russian party won the most seats in Latvian parliament last election)

And with a Latvian citizenship, you get access to EU and other opportunities educationally and/or employment wise. Even just living in Latvia, average income is higher than in Russia IIRC, and Russian economy is not doing so good and probably for the next couple of years, with post COVID economic recovery combined with low oil prices which Russia relies heavily for economic growth. So why would you want to live under Russian rule, when your prospects are better with Latvia and EU?

 

[Pikache]

Fair point on the low hanging fruit, but not sure that Russia hasn't already pruned and cultivated what they feel is in their strategic interests. They stayed out of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict until it ended, the enclave that those two countries were fighting over was not important enough for Russia to intercede. One end result is that Armenia is now even more tightly ensconced with Russia, and will rely on re-armament from Russian industry for tanks, artillery etc to replace front line losses, and is likely already in negotiations to procure UAV's. I suspect as well that Russian military advisors will be visiting Armenian defence installations for the next few years.

Russia already has a military presence in Georgia, but specifically told Georgia that they will not intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh for two reasons IMO. 1. Punish the Georgian PM for trying to get away from Russian sphere of influence politically, 2. ensure Georgia stays firmly in Russian sphere of influence.

Russia is more than likely to intervene in any country they consider 'near abroad', and they consider Caucasus area a southern security concern. None intervention would have meant significant influence by Turkey in southern Caucasus, of which Russia does not want. Russia is probably pissed off that Turkey already has lodgement, and likely maneuvering to get rid of Turkey's influence.

But we digress

 

[MilEME09]

Latvia asks Western allies, including Canada, to help bolster its defences in face of Russian threat

Latvia is already Canada’s biggest military deployment, with about 540 soldiers. It has led a NATO battle group in the country since 2017

www.theglobeandmail.com

Latvia will be asking for more troops to help deter Russia in coming meeting with our MND

 

[daftandbarmy]

Latvia asks Western allies, including Canada, to help bolster its defences in face of Russian threat

Latvia is already Canada’s biggest military deployment, with about 540 soldiers. It has led a NATO battle group in the country since 2017

www.theglobeandmail.com

Latvia will be asking for more troops to help deter Russia in coming meeting with our MND

But 'Latvia is asking more than we can give' right?

 

[MilEME09]

Latvia hopeful Canada will extend, boost military presence amid Russia threat - National | Globalnews.ca

Latvian ambassador to Canada said his countrymen are grateful for the 600 Canadian soldiers currently deployed to the Baltic state to defend against the threat of Russian attack.

globalnews.ca

Apparently more troops wasn't part of the call, even if it was, given the current personal situation could we even afford to send more?

 

[WestIsle]

Latvia hopeful Canada will extend, boost military presence amid Russia threat - National | Globalnews.ca

Latvian ambassador to Canada said his countrymen are grateful for the 600 Canadian soldiers currently deployed to the Baltic state to defend against the threat of Russian attack.

globalnews.ca

Apparently more troops wasn't part of the call, even if it was, given the current personal situation could we even afford to send more?

Yes we arent deploying many people. All we need to do is stop sending captains from battalion to Ottawa for a couple years. The training cycle to generate OCs and ICs is wearing on the army

 

[FJAG]

Yes we arent deploying many people. All we need to do is stop sending captains from battalion to Ottawa for a couple years. The training cycle to generate OCs and ICs is wearing on the army

One of these days some genius will get the message that the CF can't afford NDHQ anymore.

Not holding my breath.

 

[MilEME09]

One of these days some genius will get the message that the CF can't afford NDHQ anymore.

Not holding my breath.

I think that is as likely as the leafs winning the cup

 

[FJAG]

I think that is as likely as the leafs winning the cup

Okay. You've got to remember that I'm an old bugger and grew up in Scarborough in the Sixties and that the Leafs were my team. To me hockey players were guys like Bower, Brewer, Mahovlich, Keon, Shack, Horton and Armstrong. They brought the cup home in 62, 63, 64 and 67.

Not sure what exactly happened after 67 (maybe its because around then I stopped playing road hockey) but the memory of what went on before is what keeps me (and millions of Torontonians) optimistic that lightning can strike again.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Okay. You've got to remember that I'm an old bugger and grew up in Scarborough in the Sixties and that the Leafs were my team. To me hockey players were guys like Bower, Brewer, Mahovlich, Keon, Shack, Horton and Armstrong. They brought the cup home in 62, 63, 64 and 67.

Not sure what exactly happened after 67 (maybe its because around then I stopped playing road hockey) but the memory of what went on before is what keeps me (and millions of Torontonians) optimistic that lightning can strike again.

1967? Expansion . . . remember that? It's one thing putting the best quality team on the ice when you're one of six (and those six had been the same for 25 years). It becomes another thing when you suddenly become one of twelve (and the six new teams have deep pockets holding American dollars) and then over the next 12 years the league expands to 21 teams.

But yes, I still think of "hockey" (real hockey) as those six teams. And while Roch Carrier's experience may have been indicative of his culture, where I came from (as far east in Canada as possible) a Leafs sweater was the usual preferred choice.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, some Russians in Latvia don't seem to feel all that threatened ...

As Canada looks to extend its NATO mission in Latvia, some in this former Soviet republic say the military presence is unnecessary.

Lilija Lapshina, who was selling pickled cranberries and other preserves at a market in the city of Daugavpils, in the Latgale region in Latvia’s east, insisted her country doesn’t require Western help.

“It’s useless,” she said of the multinational NATO battle group that Canada has commanded since 2017 near Riga, Latvia’s capital. “Nobody is going to attack Latvia. We don’t need Canadian soldiers.”

Ms. Lapshina is not alone in this view. In Latgale, which borders both Russia and Belarus, there is significant ambivalence about the presence of foreign troops.

She is part of Latvia’s ethnic Russian minority, which makes up about a quarter of the country’s population and is heavily represented in Latgale. Some can trace their families in the area back to Tsarist Russia, while others have roots in the half century of Soviet occupation that ended in the 1990s.

Many have family connections in Russia and do not see Russian President Vladimir Putin as a menace. Russia lies just 120 kilometres to the northeast of Daugavpils.

Their views are relatively common in Latvia. A March, 2021, poll released by GlobeSec, a Slovakia-based think tank, found that while nearly 60 per cent of Latvians surveyed viewed Mr. Putin negatively, 31 per cent regarded him positively. The poll of 1,000 respondents was conducted by Latvian Facts ...

 

[KevinB]

Meanwhile, some Russians in Latvia don't seem to feel all that threatened ...

Shocker the ethnic Russians don't want NATO troops around...

 

[Halifax Tar]

Shocker the ethnic Russians don't want NATO troops around...

 

[The Bread Guy]

Shocker the ethnic Russians don't want NATO troops around...

Some of them may even see Team Soviet Union 2.0 as their "saviours" if push came to shove.

 

[Good2Golf]

Shocker the ethnic Russians don't want NATO troops around...

…but they sure don’t mind the better living conditions and prosperity of actually living IN a NATO nation…

 

[The Bread Guy]

…but they sure don’t mind the better living conditions and prosperity of actually living IN a NATO nation…

They're still unhappy about the Russian language being suppressed - sorta like the old days when Latvian was suppressed.

But I guess some Russians in Latvia (or the rest of the Baltics, for that matter) didn't get the memo about history needing to be remembered with all its warts, right?

 

[Spencer100]

1967? Expansion . . . remember that? It's one thing putting the best quality team on the ice when you're one of six (and those six had been the same for 25 years). It becomes another thing when you suddenly become one of twelve (and the six new teams have deep pockets holding American dollars) and then over the next 12 years the league expands to 21 teams.

But yes, I still think of "hockey" (real hockey) as those six teams. And while Roch Carrier's experience may have been indicative of his culture, where I came from (as far east in Canada as possible) a Leafs sweater was the usual preferred choice.

Right!

Plus as a businessperson and remember this is first and foremost a business I don't think I would want to work too hard to win the Stanley cup either if I owned the Leafs. The increase in revenue for a long run in the playoffs etc. would not offset the increased expenses. They sell out every game now. They sell tons of licensed product the increase would barely be seen. The TV money is shared. So if you are smart you make a team just good enough. So I would guess the management at MLSE are smart as they have not won in my lifetime.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Meanwhile, some Russians in Latvia don't seem to feel all that threatened ...

Some can trace their families in the area back to Tsarist Russia, while others have roots in the half century of Soviet occupation that ended in the 1990s.

These would be the Russians who Uncle Joe moved there between 1940-41 and 1944-50 when he and his NKVD lackeys/murderers either executed or forcibly removed a few hundred hundred Latvians (and Estonians, Lithuanians, Poles, Romanians, Hungarians, Germans, Baltic Germans, Volga Germans) to one of the 'Stans. These Russians simply moved straight into the forcibly abandoned houses/farms/flats/apartments of the Latvians off to the Gulags/'Stans and instantly created little (or not so little) Russian enclaves all through the Baltics, Kaliningrad, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, etc, etc, etc.

To many Latvians, Estonians and Lithuanians, these Russians are nothing more than 'Colonizers'.

 

[Maxman1]

Canada commits troops, sanctions Russia as Kremlin orders troops into Ukraine

An additional 460 pers including a 100 man artillery unit to Reassurance, Halifax and an Aurora.

 

[Prairie canuck]

Good day to all. It's been a long time since I posted here, so long I had to re-register, but I could think of no better place to ask this question. Putin has stated that "Canada will pay a price for it's sanctions". Could Russian assets begin to challenge Canada's north, land some men and equipment and plant a flag, and are we ready to respond? I know it's pure speculation on my part but after the last 2 yrs I'm starting to think anything is possible. Thanks for your consideration.