Our North - SSE Policy Update Megathread

[Kirkhill]

And JEF needs reinforcing

How should Britain empower the Joint Expeditionary Force?

The Big Ask | No. 24.2024

www.britainsworld.org.uk

Joint Expeditionary Force is a British defence success, but UK credibility is under threat

Defence analyst Ed Arnold says the UK needs to make a decision on what to do with the JEF before confidence in the force is lost.

www.forcesnews.com

 

[Kirkhill]

'America First' meets Greenland, Taiwan, and the Panama Canal

With an eye on China’s expanding footprint, Trump aims to recalibrate US strategy across three crucial global choke points

responsiblestatecraft.org

Icebreaker ‘Storis’ Officially Joins U.S. Coast Guard Fleet

The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.

gcaptain.com

How long before Trump's USCG pushes Storis east towards Resolute?

....

I don't take Trump's 51st State / Annexation rhetoric seriously. What I do take seriously is his emphasis on ensuring the primacy of the American economy and his willingness to take action, economic action, to ensure that America holds off challenges from China and its acolytes (Russia, Iran and North Korea).

To do that he has to stir up his "allies" because he doesn't have the budget to do everything he needs to do himself. He needs the OECD (NATO, EU, APEC) to become less dependent on the US and more able to look after themselves. The Aussies, Japanese and Koreans have got the message. The Europeans are getting the message. Canada's government has been deaf, dumb and blind to the message.

Canadians don't really believe that the US would let the outside world disrupt their peaceful idyll in the north. Consequently they see no need to waste money on bullets.

The only threat that Canadians really fear is the US. But that has been the realm of fantasists like Richard Rohmer..... Until Donald Trump,

....

Trump doesn't want Canada or Greenland. He wants their resources. He wants their geo-strategic positions. He wants to deny both of them to China. And he doesn't want to pay for them.

....

My take. Trump wants Canada's resources. He knows he will have to pay for them. He is already paying for them and Canada is making a profit at his expense. If he has to start buying Cobalt, Lithium and Uranium from Canada, along with the oil and gas then Canada is going to make more money from him. That means that he is going to have less money to defend North America and general and the US in particular. But it also means that Canada is going to have more money that it could be using to take the defense burden off of the US.

One area that Canada could assist is by associating with Greenland/Denmark and Iceland, reinvigorating those 1940-50 era defence pacts and, conceivably with JEF.

I don't think Trump minds been seen as a bully if it encourages people to do what he wants them to do.

...

The Abraham Accords pushed the Sunnis and the Jews into an accommodation opposed to the Shias.
Perhaps some sort of Arctic Accord is the play for this term.

...
PS Great advice for Canadians as well.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/01/07/fetterman_buying_greenland_is_a_responsible_conversation.html

Fetterman: Acquiring Greenland Is A "Responsible Conversation," Dems Need To Pace Themselves On Freaking Out​

 

[Kirkhill]

And in line with an Arctic Multi-Domain Task Force..

US Army tests mid-range capability of Typhon weapon system

The U.S. Army's 5th Battalion, 3rd Field Artillery Regiment (Long Range Fires Battalion) has achieved two groundbreaking milestones in its mission to advance long-range precision fires. These accomplishments, conducted under the 1st Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF), highlight innovations in...

defence-blog.com

....

 

[Czech_pivo]

'America First' meets Greenland, Taiwan, and the Panama Canal

With an eye on China’s expanding footprint, Trump aims to recalibrate US strategy across three crucial global choke points

responsiblestatecraft.org

Icebreaker ‘Storis’ Officially Joins U.S. Coast Guard Fleet

The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.

gcaptain.com

How long before Trump's USCG pushes Storis east towards Resolute?

....

I don't take Trump's 51st State / Annexation rhetoric seriously. What I do take seriously is his emphasis on ensuring the primacy of the American economy and his willingness to take action, economic action, to ensure that America holds off challenges from China and its acolytes (Russia, Iran and North Korea).

To do that he has to stir up his "allies" because he doesn't have the budget to do everything he needs to do himself. He needs the OECD (NATO, EU, APEC) to become less dependent on the US and more able to look after themselves. The Aussies, Japanese and Koreans have got the message. The Europeans are getting the message. Canada's government has been deaf, dumb and blind to the message.

Canadians don't really believe that the US would let the outside world disrupt their peaceful idyll in the north. Consequently they see no need to waste money on bullets.

The only threat that Canadians really fear is the US. But that has been the realm of fantasists like Richard Rohmer..... Until Donald Trump,

....

Trump doesn't want Canada or Greenland. He wants their resources. He wants their geo-strategic positions. He wants to deny both of them to China. And he doesn't want to pay for them.

....

My take. Trump wants Canada's resources. He knows he will have to pay for them. He is already paying for them and Canada is making a profit at his expense. If he has to start buying Cobalt, Lithium and Uranium from Canada, along with the oil and gas then Canada is going to make more money from him. That means that he is going to have less money to defend North America and general and the US in particular. But it also means that Canada is going to have more money that it could be using to take the defense burden off of the US.

One area that Canada could assist is by associating with Greenland/Denmark and Iceland, reinvigorating those 1940-50 era defence pacts and, conceivably with JEF.

I don't think Trump minds been seen as a bully if it encourages people to do what he wants them to do.

...

The Abraham Accords pushed the Sunnis and the Jews into an accommodation opposed to the Shias.
Perhaps some sort of Arctic Accord is the play for this term.

...
PS Great advice for Canadians as well.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/01/07/fetterman_buying_greenland_is_a_responsible_conversation.html

A focus on a re-built and expanded RCAF and RCN should be considered. We don't have the numbers to field a standing 3-4 reg force division CDN Army but we do have the ability to expand in a meaningful way the RCAF and RCN to make a real contribution to Fortress North America.

The cost might be great to add another 1.5 to 2 squadrons of F35's, another 6-8 P8's, another 6-8 CC-330's and more Chinook's to the RCAF.
For the RCN, buy the 12 subs, replace the Kingstons with 12 of something of substance, speed up the delivery of the 15 CSC's, add 2-3 more JSS's and replace the Cyclone's with a more robust MH with proper numbers to man the new expanded navy.

The above would be less warm bodies than trying to add a new brigade, along with all the missing pieces from an Atry, Armour, AD and logistic pieces that are sorely missing.

 

[QV]

A focus on a re-built and expanded RCAF and RCN should be considered. We don't have the numbers to field a standing 3-4 reg force division CDN Army but we do have the ability to expand in a meaningful way the RCAF and RCN to make a real contribution to Fortress North America.

The cost might be great to add another 1.5 to 2 squadrons of F35's, another 6-8 P8's, another 6-8 CC-330's and more Chinook's to the RCAF.
For the RCN, buy the 12 subs, replace the Kingstons with 12 of something of substance, speed up the delivery of the 15 CSC's, add 2-3 more JSS's and replace the Cyclone's with a more robust MH with proper numbers to man the new expanded navy.

The above would be less warm bodies than trying to add a new brigade, along with all the missing pieces from an Atry, Armour, AD and logistic pieces that are sorely missing.

A robust RCN and RCAF would allow for force projection as well and not just a bolstered fortress homeland.

 

[Kirkhill]

Curious call

US Army engineering reaching out for best practices for arctic construction.

Arctic Infrastructure Construction Advancements - ERDCWERX

ERDC seeks solutions enabling the development of advancement tools for more efficient construction in Arctic conditions.

www.erdcwerx.org

Arctic Infrastructure Solutions Needed by January 13, 2025 - Canadian Defence Review

The Trade Commissioner Service in Atlanta and Washington, DC, would like to make Canadian industry aware of an open call for solutions that enable the development of advancement tools for more efficient construction in Arctic conditions. A total of up to $868,000 is available to make several...

canadiandefencereview.com

-

Do we really want to teach them how to build bases in Canada?

 

[GR66]

Do we really want to teach them how to build bases in Canada?

Well, we're all going to be one big happy family soon anyway apparently...

 

[Kirkhill]

Why Greenland Matters

Rather than blustering about using military force, Donald Trump should commence behind-the-scenes talks with the Danish and Greenland governments about basing rights and other agreements limiting Chinese investment.

nationalinterest.org

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-it-has-no-plans-increase-military-presence-greenland-2025-01-09/

Greenland is crucial for the U.S. military and its ballistic missile early-warning system, since the shortest route from Europe to North America runs via the island.

"I think that the Americans are quite concerned that Russia could actually launch or initiate a major attack against the United States, and that could be done from the Russian side," analyst at Nordic Defence Analysis Jens Wenzel told Reuters.

"There is no real monitoring of the airspace in Greenland, it is largely a free-for-all," he said.

COPENHAGEN, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Denmark acknowledged on Thursday it had long neglected the defence of Greenland, a vast and strategically important Arctic island, after President-elect Donald Trump said acquiring the Danish sovereign territory was vital for U.S. security.

"We have neglected for many years to make the necessary investments in ships and in aircraft that will help monitor our kingdom, and that is what we are now trying to do something about," Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told journalists.

....

I detect some common themes in terms of Canada - Denmark - US relations.

....


And the Wall Street Journal agrees with 5% of GDP for National Defence.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-nato-defense-spending-5-percent-u-s-allies-8ab2eba9?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s

....

5% of GDP for Canadian Defence....

Easily enough met, with political support from the Canadian people, if it is couched in terms of dual use facilities (civil - military) and more civilian jobs as well as military jobs (construction, manufacturing and engineering).

Runways and hangers for fighters become local airfields instead of gravel strips. Wharfs and oil storage facilities for naval ships can also be accessible to civilian traffic. More Coast Guard and civilian ships for the arctic. Highways and power and rail and pipelines all have strategic aspects. Communications, research, hydrography .... all civil-military investments that could be drawn from a 5% annual investment under the guise of National Security.

And of course Emergency Preparedness ....

And the Canadian Armed Forces.

....

As to why Trump does things loudly rather than discretely? He seems to generate results faster that way than leaving matters in the hands of the gray flannel suits of the civil service in their clubs.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A focus on a re-built and expanded RCAF and RCN should be considered. We don't have the numbers to field a standing 3-4 reg force division CDN Army but we do have the ability to expand in a meaningful way the RCAF and RCN to make a real contribution to Fortress North America.

The cost might be great to add another 1.5 to 2 squadrons of F35's, another 6-8 P8's, another 6-8 CC-330's and more Chinook's to the RCAF.
For the RCN, buy the 12 subs, replace the Kingstons with 12 of something of substance, speed up the delivery of the 15 CSC's, add 2-3 more JSS's and replace the Cyclone's with a more robust MH with proper numbers to man the new expanded navy.

The above would be less warm bodies than trying to add a new brigade, along with all the missing pieces from an Atry, Armour, AD and logistic pieces that are sorely missing.

We are well on our way to a much more robust navy and air force. With the River Class, JSS coming online, F35's, P-8's, expanded aerial transport and refueling fleet, plus if we get even 8 new Subs, we have pretty much tripled our abilty to respond in those two realms. That leaves the Army to come up with a viable plan for equipment, organization and manning.

 

[Ostrozac]

We are well on our way to a much more robust navy and air force.

If we can staff them, we’re golden. Good to go for a generation.

If we can’t, we’ve just wasted billions, and it’s going to be extremely challenging to get buy-in for future equipment with questions around whether there’s anyone who will be around to use them.

I fear we’re drifting towards option 2. From where I sit I just don’t see major changes happening to the recruiting/training/retain8ng system that got us to this point in the first place.

 

[Maxman1]

If we can staff them, we’re golden. Good to go for a generation.

If we can’t, we’ve just wasted billions, and it’s going to be extremely challenging to get buy-in for future equipment with questions around whether there’s anyone who will be around to use them.

I fear we’re drifting towards option 2. From where I sit I just don’t see major changes happening to the recruiting/training/retain8ng system that got us to this point in the first place.

There is a certain level of "if you build it, they will come" at play. Having to work with increasingly non-servicable equipment is bit of a turn off for applicants.

 

[dimsum]

There is a certain level of "if you build it, they will come" at play. Having to work with increasingly non-servicable equipment is bit of a turn off for applicants.

Exactly. Not getting stuff because we’re afraid that we don’t have the staffing for it, means we’re working with older stuff.

People won’t want to join to work on older stuff. So we…don’t buy anything new. Hence continuing the spiral.

And it’s not like we’re not paying for maintenance of the older equipment, which will certainly rise as spare parts are harder to find, etc. At some point there is a tipping point where it’s cheaper to buy new stuff (with lower maintenance costs or easier procurement of spare parts) than keeping our old stuff going.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Exactly. Not getting stuff because we’re afraid that we don’t have the staffing for it, means we’re working with older stuff.

People won’t want to join to work on older stuff. So we…don’t buy anything new. Hence continuing the spiral.

And it’s not like we’re not paying for maintenance of the older equipment, which will certainly rise as spare parts are harder to find, etc. At some point there is a tipping point where it’s cheaper to buy new stuff (with lower maintenance costs or easier procurement of spare parts) than keeping our old stuff going.

Pffft.... 'new' equipment.

Bayonets have been around for centuries...

Just sayin'

 

[YZT580]

If we can staff them, we’re golden. Good to go for a generation.

If we can’t, we’ve just wasted billions, and it’s going to be extremely challenging to get buy-in for future equipment with questions around whether there’s anyone who will be around to use them.

I fear we’re drifting towards option 2. From where I sit I just don’t see major changes happening to the recruiting/training/retain8ng system that got us to this point in the first place.

CAF had thousands of applications last year. Boost your cadet cadres. There are thousands of parents looking for summer options for their high schoolers: a cadet training programme that pays would be far more beneficial than government make work programmes. Make the CAF a viable career option to the graduating classes by contradicting the grow lots of flowers and peace will prevail attitude in schools and staffing issues will fade out.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Pffft.... 'new' equipment.

Bayonets have been around for centuries...

Just sayin'

View attachment 90427

Bring back the Martini Henry!

 

[RangerRay]

Exactly. Not getting stuff because we’re afraid that we don’t have the staffing for it, means we’re working with older stuff.

People won’t want to join to work on older stuff. So we…don’t buy anything new. Hence continuing the spiral.

And it’s not like we’re not paying for maintenance of the older equipment, which will certainly rise as spare parts are harder to find, etc. At some point there is a tipping point where it’s cheaper to buy new stuff (with lower maintenance costs or easier procurement of spare parts) than keeping our old stuff going.

But it also has to be “cool” new stuff too…

 

[Maxman1]

Exactly. Not getting stuff because we’re afraid that we don’t have the staffing for it, means we’re working with older stuff.

People won’t want to join to work on older stuff. So we…don’t buy anything new. Hence continuing the spiral.

And it’s not like we’re not paying for maintenance of the older equipment, which will certainly rise as spare parts are harder to find, etc. At some point there is a tipping point where it’s cheaper to buy new stuff (with lower maintenance costs or easier procurement of spare parts) than keeping our old stuff going.

And the people currently working on the old stuff eventually get fed up and leave.

 

[dimsum]

But it also has to be “cool” new stuff too…

Yes and no.

If folks are working on F-35s but then writing memos for leave rather than using the RCN App (as an example), then they will also get fed up and leave.

 

[SupersonicMax]

Yes and no.

If folks are working on F-35s but then writing memos for leave rather than using the RCN App (as an example), then they will also get fed up and leave.

This is a big part of the dissatisfaction. We’re in the 2020s and people still scan electronically signed documents only to have them signed electronically by the next person in the chain. We have to sign three different things to have MATA/PATA approved. We use a clunky old program to manage our people. This creates huge inefficiencies that takes people’s focus away from their real jobs, and that wears on folks.

We’re not a digital organization. We’re an organization that conducts 1970s processes on a computer.

 

[dapaterson]

The intent (in 2008) of the MPMCT was to modernize policy and process, in parallel with implementing a new version of PeopleSoft.

Instead, the old processes were largely unchanged, and the new version has been customized to hell, just like the old version.