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The War in Ukraine

Skysix said:
Russia can surrender or withdraw any time they want also. The difference is if Russia withdraws, they are left whole (territorially) and can continue to exist.

If Ukraine surrenders, they cease to exist as a country, their population will become persecuted, tortured and killed, enslaved with their children brainwashed, and conscripted into the Russian army to fight the next Russian war - be it Moldova or the Suwałki Gap or Georgia or...... Russia will acquire a huge amount of petrocarbon and other resources and be in an even better strategic position to force their will upon Europe.

You say you are 40 years too old. That would make you about 100 since even in Canada, let alone Ukraine, you can be in the military until 60 (or longer if highly skilled or ranked). So I doubt you are actually too old. I read that as you would be unwilling to fight against Russia if NATO and Canada became involved. To each his own I guess.

And that does not even consider the geopolitical message it sends to "the Axis of Resistance" (their term, not mine). China, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Cuba, Syria, Lebanon or any of the other 67 autocracies/dictatorships around the world who might decide that the global 'North' (aka western democracies) has no will or power to prevent or punish them from declaring war and invading their neighbors in a territorial, water/oil/resource grab.

The only marginally safe countries will be those that possess a nuclear deterrent. Many many more countries will immediately start to develop their own nuclear defense capability puttng the entire globe, and humankind, at more risk.

I assume from your presence here that you have some sort if interest or experience with military, Canadian or otherwise. So to promote a let Russia win position says to me you are either incredibly poorly informed or are a troll. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I suggest you broaden your horizons and apparently parochial view if this conflict and think of the world your offspring and relatives would have to live in should your preferred outcome take place.
Click to expand...
you need to re read my post.

be in the military ? or be effective? How about join?
what happens when my nap time comes up?
 
"Why do we need Ukrainian victory? Ill take another 400,000 to 800,000 casualties and half or double the platform losses that the Russians have suffered. It would be the same if we were supporting India against China or some other conflict"

"I'm about 40 yrs too old.
But that is an idiotic comment.
Im not forcing any Ukrainian to fight. They can surrender anytime they want"

The answer to your question is in my (long) post. And to your second point, you are correct. They CAN surrender. But they manifestly do NOT want. They have asked for material and financial help, not NATO bodies on the ground. We can choose to help, or not. The consequences of this decision very heavily favor helping now and preventing a far more costly war in the not too distant future.
 
Skysix said:
"Why do we need Ukrainian victory? Ill take another 400,000 to 800,000 casualties and half or double the platform losses that the Russians have suffered. It would be the same if we were supporting India against China or some other conflict"

"I'm about 40 yrs too old.
But that is an idiotic comment.
Im not forcing any Ukrainian to fight. They can surrender anytime they want"

The answer to your question is in my (long) post. And to your second point, you are correct. They CAN surrender. But they manifestly do NOT want. They have asked for material and financial help, not NATO bodies on the ground. We can choose to help, or not. The consequences of this decision very heavily favor helping now and preventing a far more costly war in the not too distant future.
Click to expand...
ok here we go again

how does another 400,000 to 800,000 Russian casualties translate into being pro Russian and anti Ukraine?
how does having another couple thousand Russian tanks destroyed translate into being pro Russian and anti Ukraine?

Ive literally been one of the most biased Ukraine posters on this thread
 
suffolkowner said:
How does another 400,000 to 800,000 Russian casualties translate into being pro Russian and anti Ukraine?
how does having another couple thousand Russian tanks destroyed translate into being pro Russian and anti Ukraine?
Click to expand...
"Why do we need Ukrainian victory? Ill take another 400,000 to 800,000 casualties and half or double the platform losses that the Russians have suffered

I owe you an apology - I read the above as referring to Ukrainian casualties. The top quote clarifies your position greatly. And if I interpret it correctly this time, you mean that Victory is not essential if we keep heavily attriting the Russians.

We differ in that I would rather see a well/properly/fully supported Ukrainian series of pushes drive Russia out of Ukraine in a year or so as opposed to several more years of slow conflict that bleeds out both sides as Russia has a far deeper pool of potential casualties.

If everything that was requested of NATO back in the spring of 2022 had been delivered by the summer of 2022 we would not be in the positional ground war we are now in. Hundreds of tanks not tens. Long range fires. Multitudes of APC's and IFV's etc. etc.

As Boris Johnson said very early on, "if we give president zelensky the tools the ukrainians will finish the job"
 
Skysix said:
Yet, this still happens

www.military.com

European Nations with Patriots Hesitate to Give Their Missile Systems to Ukraine

European Union countries possessing Patriot air defense systems appeared hesitant on Monday to give any to Ukraine, which is desperately seeking at least seven of the missile batteries to help fend off Russian air attacks.
www.military.com www.military.com
Click to expand...

As much as I think the Europeans need to be doing more I can understand their reluctance to release Patriot batteries to Ukraine when there is a continuing risk of Russia (intentionally or accidentally) breeching their airspace.

The fact that Ukraine is looking for 7(Seven) batteries and most European countries that have them only have 1 or 2 is suggestive of the problem. There just aren't that many batteries, launchers or missiles in existence and they are not being created at any great rate.

Even the US doesn't have an unlimited supply.

For those that would like to see an Israeli style Iron Dome

Area of Israel - 22,145 km2
Area of Kyiv Oblast - 28,121 km2 (There are 24 Oblasts in Ukraine of roughly equal size)
Area of GTA - 7,124 km2
 
Kirkhill said:
As much as I think the Europeans need to be doing more I can understand their reluctance to release Patriot batteries to Ukraine when there is a continuing risk of Russia (intentionally or accidentally) breeching their airspace.

The fact that Ukraine is looking for 7(Seven) batteries and most European countries that have them only have 1 or 2 is suggestive of the problem. There just aren't that many batteries, launchers or missiles in existence and they are not being created at any great rate.

Even the US doesn't have an unlimited supply.

For those that would like to see an Israeli style Iron Dome

Area of Israel - 22,145 km2
Area of Kyiv Oblast - 28,121 km2 (There are 24 Oblasts in Ukraine of roughly equal size)
Area of GTA - 7,124 km2
Click to expand...
We have over 66 Patriot Batteries.
Sending 6 or 16 wouldn’t be an issue.

But Ukraine doesn’t just need Patriot. They need a fully integrated air defense network. From THAAD to Point Defense Systems.
 
KevinB said:
We have over 66 Patriot Batteries.
Sending 6 or 16 wouldn’t be an issue.

But Ukraine doesn’t just need Patriot. They need a fully integrated air defense network. From THAAD to Point Defense Systems.
Click to expand...

I still point to the scale of the problem if trying to get to the success rate that Israel achieved against Iran.

Ukraine is defending 24x that area that Israel is. And Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of adjacent airspace where Americans, Brits, French, Jordanian, Saudi and UAE assets can assist in attriting Iranian missiles (broadly defined). That attack was blunted by Ground Launched, Sea Launched and Air Launched assets..
 
Kirkhill said:
I still point to the scale of the problem if trying to get to the success rate that Israel achieved against Iran.

Ukraine is defending 24x that area that Israel is. And Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of adjacent airspace where Americans, Brits, French, Jordanian, Saudi and UAE assets can assist in attriting Iranian missiles (broadly defined). That attack was blunted by Ground Launched, Sea Launched and Air Launched assets..
Click to expand...
Agreed. Ukraine also needs long range systems to be able to strike Russian launch systems.
 
Skysix said:
"Why do we need Ukrainian victory? Ill take another 400,000 to 800,000 casualties and half or double the platform losses that the Russians have suffered

I owe you an apology - I read the above as referring to Ukrainian casualties. The top quote clarifies your position greatly. And if I interpret it correctly this time, you mean that Victory is not essential if we keep heavily attriting the Russians.

We differ in that I would rather see a well/properly/fully supported Ukrainian series of pushes drive Russia out of Ukraine in a year or so as opposed to several more years of slow conflict that bleeds out both sides as Russia has a far deeper pool of potential casualties.

If everything that was requested of NATO back in the spring of 2022 had been delivered by the summer of 2022 we would not be in the positional ground war we are now in. Hundreds of tanks not tens. Long range fires. Multitudes of APC's and IFV's etc. etc.

As Boris Johnson said very early on, "if we give president zelensky the tools the ukrainians will finish the job"
Click to expand...
We dont differ actually. I was just articulating that supporting a Ukrainian victory, however one defines it isnt a necessary policy point when one looks at the geopolitical situation with respect to Russia. Now there are and always have been American isolationists and I guess Canadian ones as well I guess but I do not find that position convincing.

Theoretically Russia has a deeper pool but they also have a greater need for that manpower throughout the endeavour. It also depends on the casualty ratios. Are the Ukrainians casualties on par with the Russians? 80%, 60% ? As a whole NATO isnt really taking this war that seriously otherwise there would be much more movement on donations. I dont think 0.5% of GDP is unreasonable in this case. Look at us we have a GDLS that we could jump start for both LAV's and 155 rounds but have not
 
Kirkhill said:
As much as I think the Europeans need to be doing more I can understand their reluctance to release Patriot batteries to Ukraine when there is a continuing risk of Russia (intentionally or accidentally) breeching their airspace.

The fact that Ukraine is looking for 7(Seven) batteries and most European countries that have them only have 1 or 2 is suggestive of the problem. There just aren't that many batteries, launchers or missiles in existence and they are not being created at any great rate.

Even the US doesn't have an unlimited supply.

For those that would like to see an Israeli style Iron Dome

Area of Israel - 22,145 km2
Area of Kyiv Oblast - 28,121 km2 (There are 24 Oblasts in Ukraine of roughly equal size)
Area of GTA - 7,124 km2
Click to expand...
are they not expecting to build 12 Patriot systems this year?
 
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