Does anyone know if the experts are still saying this virus has an average death rate of 1-2 percent? The reason I ask is because when you look at the various tracking site and do the calculations, it is much higher than that. The U.S. is currently at approx. 2.8 percent, Canada approx. 1.6 percent but Germany for example is starting to go up as well as other countries. The UK is over 10 percent. If this site is right with their numbers and I'm doing math right, the fatality rate is much higher than 1-2 percent for a lot of countries and keeps going up.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Numerator over denominator. We know more or less how many people are dying of coronavirus. We don't know how many people have it. The case fatality ratios are flawed because testing remains very limited. There are many instances of people known to be frankly symptomatic (I know some) who have not qualified for or sought testing. If you get 10 deaths out of 1000 diagnosed cases, that gives you a CFR of 1%. But if besides those known cases there are another 3000 unknown cases, then the actual real ration would only be .25%.

Flip side to that- jurisdictions (Italy, Spain, France) that start seeing critical care system overload see fatality rates spike, because those case fatality ratios take into account everyone getting appropraite medical care. Start denying medical care, and a much greater proportion of the critically ill cases die. Say your city has 1000 ICU beds. On a normal day they run 80% full with other trauma and illness- car crash victims, people who've been shot or stabbed, people with non-COVID serious respiratory illnesses. So you have 20 ventilators left. COVID comes along, 75 show up in hospital of which 20 need ventilators. They've all got one, and half of them live (we're fuzzy on those numbers- I've seen estimates of 30-70% survival rate for those who require mechanical ventilation). Great. So out of those 20, ten die, ten are able to be saved because of appropriate medical support.

Fast forward a month now, and your hospital faces a major spike in cases. You're still getting car accident victims, still getting stabbings, etc. Even though those are down, you still have some. Say they have 30 beds now open for COVID and were able to surge another 20, so ou can deal with 50 COVID patients on ventilators. But because cases have climbed rapidly, your hospital now gets 400 patients, of which 130 need ventilators. Well, you've only got 50, so the other 80 don't get ventilated, and they almost all die. So now fatality rates jump considerably.

*that* is what flattening the curve is about. We can't stop this f'er from spreading completely, but if we slow it down enough, each hospital doesn't face more cases at once than it can deal with. Because even if we can mass produces more ventilators- we cannot so easily produce more trained respiratory therapists, critical care doctors, and critical care nurses to run expanded ICUs, to actually do intubations. There are shortages of medications needed to sedate and sustain intubated patients... Lots of stress points in the logistics of all this.