Author Topic: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)  (Read 251715 times)

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Offline reveng

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1675 on: April 05, 2020, 21:52:51 »
How so?

I guess I didn't expect to have to answer a question about surveillance experience on a volunteer application?

Offline Brihard

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1676 on: April 05, 2020, 21:58:20 »
I guess I didn't expect to have to answer a question about surveillance experience on a volunteer application?

Pretty sure they mean epidemiological surveillance.
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Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1677 on: April 05, 2020, 22:02:02 »
Pretty sure they mean epidemiological surveillance.

That's the way I read it.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3269210
Quote
Epidemiological surveillance is the systematic collection, analysis and dissemination of health data for the planning, implementation and evaluation of public health programmes.
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Offline reveng

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1678 on: April 05, 2020, 22:10:52 »
Seen - thanks Brihard/Blackladder!


Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1679 on: April 05, 2020, 22:17:39 »
Seen - thanks Brihard/Blackladder!

You're welcome

And here's a course so you check off that box.   ;D

http://www.uniteforsight.org/surveillance/
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Offline reveng

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1680 on: April 06, 2020, 00:13:28 »
You're welcome

And here's a course so you check off that box.   ;D

http://www.uniteforsight.org/surveillance/

Ha...I took a look at that link. I think I'll have to stick to dishing out food from a haybox or keeping the coffee fresh...  ;D

Cheers

Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1681 on: April 06, 2020, 00:57:50 »
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/us/tiger-coronavirus-new-york-trnd/index.html
Quote
By Alaa Elassar, CNN  Updated 10:03 PM ET, Sun April 5, 2020

(CNN) Nadia, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York, has become the first of her kind to test positive for the coronavirus.

The 4-year-old female Malayan tiger tested positive after developing a dry cough and is expected to recover, the Wildlife Conservation Society's Bronx Zoo said in a news release.

Samples from Nadia were taken and tested after the tiger -- and five other tigers and lions at the zoo -- began showing symptoms of respiratory illness, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). No other animals at the zoo are showing symptoms.

"Though they have experienced some decrease in appetite, the cats at the Bronx Zoo are otherwise doing well under veterinary care and are bright, alert, and interactive with their keepers," the zoo said.

"It is not known how this disease will develop in big cats since different species can react differently to novel infections, but we will continue to monitor them closely and anticipate full recoveries."

The animals were infected by a zoo employee who was "asymptomatically infected with the virus" while caring for them, according to the zoo. The Bronx Zoo has been closed to the public since March 16.

Anyone sick with the coronavirus is being advised to minimize contact with animals, including pets, until more information is known about the virus, the USDA said.


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Offline BeyondTheNow

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1682 on: April 06, 2020, 01:07:35 »
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/us/tiger-coronavirus-new-york-trnd/index.html

Interesting.

I’m seeing more frequent reports of possible evidence of humans passing it to their pets. But for every report saying it’s possible, there’s another saying evidence is inconclusive as of yet. ‘Curious to read what develops there.
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Offline Underway

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1683 on: April 06, 2020, 09:12:40 »
Interesting.

I’m seeing more frequent reports of possible evidence of humans passing it to their pets. But for every report saying it’s possible, there’s another saying evidence is inconclusive as of yet. ‘Curious to read what develops there.

Housecats can get coronavirus. It's common enough that they get immunized for it.  However, the strain that COVID 19 is doesn't necessarily translate over to cats.  Research is still ongoing. There is some possible evidence from a very small sample size that it can be transmitted to cats, but no evidence it goes the other way.

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1684 on: April 06, 2020, 10:17:07 »
Does anyone know if the experts are still saying this virus has an average death rate of 1-2 percent?  The reason I ask is because when you look at the various tracking site and do the calculations, it is much higher than that.  The U.S. is currently at approx. 2.8 percent, Canada approx. 1.6 percent but Germany for example is starting to go up as well as other countries.  The UK is over 10 percent.  If this site is right with their numbers and I'm doing math right, the fatality rate is much higher than 1-2 percent for a lot of countries and keeps going up.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6




Offline MilEME09

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1685 on: April 06, 2020, 10:24:16 »
Does anyone know if the experts are still saying this virus has an average death rate of 1-2 percent?  The reason I ask is because when you look at the various tracking site and do the calculations, it is much higher than that.  The U.S. is currently at approx. 2.8 percent, Canada approx. 1.6 percent but Germany for example is starting to go up as well as other countries.  The UK is over 10 percent.  If this site is right with their numbers and I'm doing math right, the fatality rate is much higher than 1-2 percent for a lot of countries and keeps going up.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Problem is, since we are not mass testing everyone, so we are not catching every case, the percentage will be off because we do not have an accurate case count. It would be more accurate to me to tke the number of deaths, and reverse it at a fixed 2% to get a guess of the total infections including the ones we haven't found yet.
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1686 on: April 06, 2020, 10:52:41 »
If this site is right with their numbers and I'm doing math right, the fatality rate is much higher than 1-2 percent for a lot of countries and keeps going up.

I'll leave the math for others.

But, when was the last time we saw a request for body bags by the hundreds of thousands, so many non-transports when 9-1-1 calls are breaking the record set on 9/11 - day after day, police "DOA units", crematoriums going full blast 24/7, mobile refrigerator units for dead bodies and mass graves dug by inmates?

I am also guessing that many of the deceased will later be discovered in their homes. That is common enough during "normal" times.

Quote
POSSIBLE CORONA VIRUS ACCIDENT BETWEEN NYPD AND FDNY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFC-tINUvok&feature=emb_logo

« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 11:13:19 by mariomike »
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Offline Brihard

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1687 on: April 06, 2020, 11:08:06 »
Does anyone know if the experts are still saying this virus has an average death rate of 1-2 percent?  The reason I ask is because when you look at the various tracking site and do the calculations, it is much higher than that.  The U.S. is currently at approx. 2.8 percent, Canada approx. 1.6 percent but Germany for example is starting to go up as well as other countries.  The UK is over 10 percent.  If this site is right with their numbers and I'm doing math right, the fatality rate is much higher than 1-2 percent for a lot of countries and keeps going up.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Numerator over denominator. We know more or less how many people are dying of coronavirus. We don't know how many people have it. The case fatality ratios are flawed because testing remains very limited. There are many instances of people known to be frankly symptomatic (I know some) who have not qualified for or sought testing. If you get 10 deaths out of 1000 diagnosed cases, that gives you a CFR of 1%. But if besides those known cases there are another 3000 unknown cases, then the actual real ration would only be .25%.

Flip side to that- jurisdictions (Italy, Spain, France) that start seeing critical care system overload see fatality rates spike, because those case fatality ratios take into account everyone getting appropraite medical care. Start denying medical care, and a much greater proportion of the critically ill cases die. Say your city has 1000 ICU beds. On a normal day they run 80% full with other trauma and illness- car crash victims, people who've been shot or stabbed, people with non-COVID serious respiratory illnesses. So you have 20 ventilators left. COVID comes along, 75 show up in hospital of which 20 need ventilators. They've all got one, and half of them live (we're fuzzy on those numbers- I've seen estimates of 30-70% survival rate for those who require mechanical ventilation). Great. So out of those 20, ten die, ten are able to be saved because of appropriate medical support.

Fast forward a month now, and your hospital faces a major spike in cases. You're still getting car accident victims, still getting stabbings, etc. Even though those are down, you still have some. Say they have 30 beds now open for COVID and were able to surge another 20, so ou can deal with 50 COVID patients on ventilators. But because cases have climbed rapidly, your hospital now gets 400 patients, of which 130 need ventilators. Well, you've only got 50, so the other 80 don't get ventilated, and they almost all die. So now fatality rates jump considerably.

*that* is what flattening the curve is about. We can't stop this f'er from spreading completely, but if we slow it down enough, each hospital doesn't face more cases at once than it can deal with. Because even if we can mass produces more ventilators- we cannot so easily produce more trained respiratory therapists, critical care doctors, and critical care nurses to run expanded ICUs, to actually do intubations. There are shortages of medications needed to sedate and sustain intubated patients... Lots of stress points in the logistics of all this.
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Offline mariomike

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1688 on: April 06, 2020, 11:23:17 »
NYC will be burying the dead in the local parks. Yes, the parks in NYC will become cemeteries. They will be buried in trenches.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/nyc-to-begin-temporarily-burying-coronavirus-victims-in-local-parks/


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Offline CanadianTire

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1689 on: April 06, 2020, 11:48:41 »
Having gone through the Class C DOMOPS force generation machine a few times, my guess is that it's likely that "merited" is being confused with "DAGed Green".  Before a Reservist goes Class C there are quite a number of medical, administrative and other requirements that must be met and not everyone who wants to go Class C can meet them.  Yes, the CDS can authorize some of these to be waived, but others he cannot and will not for safety and liability reasons.

When they pitched it to us initially, all that was required was a medical questionnaire form. And then...Friday night, shortly before 2100, I get a call out of the blue, from someone at my unit (but not in my chain of command) telling me effective that evening I was on class C. I never filled out the medical questionnaire, I never put my name forward, I'm pretty sure I would DAG red on some items and I had made it clear to my chain of command that until further notice I am employed full-time by my civilian employer (they are considered an essential service).

But apparently, just like that, I was given class C. I'm assured that the situation has remedied itself.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1690 on: April 06, 2020, 11:51:36 »
When they pitched it to us initially, all that was required was a medical questionnaire form. And then...Friday night, shortly before 2100, I get a call out of the blue, from someone at my unit (but not in my chain of command) telling me effective that evening I was on class C. I never filled out the medical questionnaire, I never put my name forward, I'm pretty sure I would DAG red on some items and I had made it clear to my chain of command that until further notice I am employed full-time by my civilian employer (they are considered an essential service).

But apparently, just like that, I was given class C. I'm assured that the situation has remedied itself.

Or, just maybe, because you're a trained soldier in the Canadian Army you're 'good enough', without any need to jump any other ridiculous administrative hurdles? :)
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Offline CanadianTire

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1691 on: April 06, 2020, 11:55:38 »
Now you're just being nice!  ;D
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1692 on: April 06, 2020, 12:03:04 »
Problem is, since we are not mass testing everyone, so we are not catching every case, the percentage will be off because we do not have an accurate case count. It would be more accurate to me to tke the number of deaths, and reverse it at a fixed 2% to get a guess of the total infections including the ones we haven't found yet.

With respect - universal testing, or 100% sampling, is generally accepted as poor statistics, for a variety of reasons.  "Polling" levels of testing, or a couple of thousand random tests on the general population would create a much cheaper, faster, and more accurate sense of the current situation. 

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/491021-how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus

As it stands now the guesstimates are plus or minus a log cycle or two.  We could be "off" with respect to any of the numbers by factor of 10 to 100 in either direction. In the absence of good data the politicians are still working under worst (political) case assumptions.
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1693 on: April 06, 2020, 12:06:40 »
Having gone through the Class C DOMOPS force generation machine a few times, my guess is that it's likely that "merited" is being confused with "DAGed Green".  Before a Reservist goes Class C there are quite a number of medical, administrative and other requirements that must be met and not everyone who wants to go Class C can meet them.  Yes, the CDS can authorize some of these to be waived, but others he cannot and will not for safety and liability reasons.

This is kind of the continuing problem with the Canadian Reserve system.

Service is seen as an opportunity, a reward to be secured in good times.  Not as an obligation to be undertaken in hard times.  Both the employer and the employees tend to see it that way.
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ignoramus et ignorabimus

Offline Underway

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1694 on: April 06, 2020, 12:10:08 »
This is kind of the continuing problem with the Canadian Reserve system.

Service is seen as an opportunity, a reward to be secured in good times.  Not as an obligation to be undertaken in hard times.  Both the employer and the employees tend to see it that way.

Not an unfamiliar viewpoint.  The US had similar issues when they went back to Iraq.  Plenty of students who joined the National Guard did not expect to get mobilized for a war they didn't agree with.

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1695 on: April 06, 2020, 12:12:01 »
But apparently, just like that, I was given class C. I'm assured that the situation has remedied itself.

And, at the other end of the scale a P Res Cpl in my company, deployed on Class C TOS overseas, received an NES letter from his unit directing him to turn in his kit and release because he hadn't paraded all year.

We had some fun with that one at his unit's expense.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 12:20:16 by Haggis »
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1696 on: April 06, 2020, 12:12:26 »
This is kind of the continuing problem with the Canadian Reserve systemForces.

Service is seen as an opportunity, a reward to be secured in good times.  Not as an obligation to be undertaken in hard times.  Both the employer and the employees tend to see it that way.

Not an exclusively Res F problem...
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1697 on: April 06, 2020, 12:23:07 »
Getting off topic again folks....
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1698 on: April 06, 2020, 12:58:45 »
NYC will be burying the dead in the local parks. Yes, the parks in NYC will become cemeteries. They will be buried in trenches.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/nyc-to-begin-temporarily-burying-coronavirus-victims-in-local-parks/

That actually came up during Gov Cuomo's Press Conference today, he said he hasn't heard of it but there are reports of it.


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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #1699 on: April 06, 2020, 13:04:03 »
When they pitched it to us initially, all that was required was a medical questionnaire form. And then...Friday night, shortly before 2100, I get a call out of the blue, from someone at my unit (but not in my chain of command) telling me effective that evening I was on class C. I never filled out the medical questionnaire, I never put my name forward, I'm pretty sure I would DAG red on some items and I had made it clear to my chain of command that until further notice I am employed full-time by my civilian employer (they are considered an essential service).

But apparently, just like that, I was given class C. I'm assured that the situation has remedied itself.

If you didn't request it, I would certainly ask for it in writing. Other than yours, I haven't heard of anyone being forced on class C.  Has anyone else heard of this?