Author Topic: Run Up to Election 2019  (Read 35216 times)

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Offline Remius

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #100 on: March 31, 2019, 18:32:32 »
Which is why he has to not give them reason so to reinforce that notion.
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #101 on: March 31, 2019, 18:37:20 »
Which is why he has to not give them reason so to reinforce that notion.

I think Jarnhamar's point is that, regardless, the Liberals will play the racism card on Scheer. Doesn't matter what he does.

Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #102 on: March 31, 2019, 19:19:41 »
I think Jarnhamar's point is that, regardless, the Liberals will play the racism card on Scheer. Doesn't matter what he does.

Exactly.

Can you imagine if Scheer was the one to crack that thanks for your donation joke?

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Offline Remius

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #103 on: March 31, 2019, 19:24:42 »
I think Jarnhamar's point is that, regardless, the Liberals will play the racism card on Scheer. Doesn't matter what he does.

Not disagreeing.  But no need to add oil to a fire.
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #104 on: March 31, 2019, 19:39:16 »
And it will work, no matter what the truth or facts are. The other approach will be “Andrew Scheer is Stephen Harper”. 
Harper may have been inelastic, but he was a pragmatist and a realist, and yes, cruel to the Liberal party. This frigging Shakespeare play we have right now is much worse, but too many people want to fawn over the actors and not the plot.

 I’m tired of politics and governance as we have come to know and witness how these things are practised in Canada. They truly suck, but I also don’t see a better alternative. 

Maybe direct democracy on major issues where people vote not just on political party platforms but on critical issues themselves. Actually and truly give people a voice rather than just an opportunity to choose who to vote for, to control by constraining or enabling the activities, agendas and directions of the body politic including the judiciary. But that would be turning the tables on power.
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #105 on: March 31, 2019, 20:28:49 »
And it will work, no matter what the truth or facts are. The other approach will be “Andrew Scheer is Stephen Harper”. 
Harper may have been inelastic, but he was a pragmatist and a realist, and yes, cruel to the Liberal party. This frigging Shakespeare play we have right now is much worse, but too many people want to fawn over the actors and not the plot.

 I’m tired of politics and governance as we have come to know and witness how these things are practised in Canada. They truly suck, but I also don’t see a better alternative. 

Maybe direct democracy on major issues where people vote not just on political party platforms but on critical issues themselves. Actually and truly give people a voice rather than just an opportunity to choose who to vote for, to control by constraining or enabling the activities, agendas and directions of the body politic including the judiciary. But that would be turning the tables on power.

The basic problem is that I trust the people less than the politicians. People have very little to lose by being intransigent a**holes while politicians have to keep a little bit of decency visible in order to be re-elected. Call me a cynic if you will but I blame the electorate.

 :coffee:

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #106 on: March 31, 2019, 21:24:19 »
Well, you’re right of course and that’s a common concern, and an even bigger concern is too many people would rather somebody else make decisions, while reserving to themselves the right to complain and revolt against every and anything that might make a little sense.  UNtario is a good example where government has tried to be all things to all people, that hasn’t worked out very well. 
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #107 on: April 01, 2019, 12:45:55 »
Well, you’re right of course and that’s a common concern, and an even bigger concern is too many people would rather somebody else make decisions, while reserving to themselves the right to complain and revolt against every and anything that might make a little sense.  UNtario is a good example where government has tried to be all things to all people, that hasn’t worked out very well.

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #108 on: April 08, 2019, 10:47:01 »
https://www.taxpayer.com/news-releases/the-trudeau-government-has-announced--4.2-billion-in-spending-since-snc-lavalin-scandal-broke

THE TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED $4.2 BILLION IN SPENDING SINCE SNC-LAVALIN SCANDAL BROKE
- 8 Apr 19
 
OTTAWA, ON: The Canadian Taxpayers Federation today released a list of all spending announcements made by the Trudeau government over the last two months which may have been missed during the ongoing SNC-Lavalin scandal.

“With so much attention understandably focused on SNC-Lavalin, many people may have missed most or all of these 267 spending announcements,” said CTF Federal Director Aaron Wudrick. “We believe spending taxpayer dollars deserves proper scrutiny, and in that spirit we’re pleased to provide this list.”

The largest spending announcement made since Feb. 7 is $1 billion in “innovation” funding for southern Ontario on Feb. 27, while the smallest was $8,000 to fund upgrades for a maple sugar camp in New Brunswick on Mar. 29. Other highlights include:

$72 million for “clean technology” in Alberta (Mar.14)
$30 million for an “intellectual property collective” (Feb. 13)
$4.2 million to help develop “innovative” fruit (Mar.11)
$595,000 on a boating safety mobile app (Mar. 14)
$376,000 for a ‘Cheese Expertise Centre’ (Apr. 3)

Wudrick noted that with the federal government currently running a deficit of $19.8 billion rather than balancing the budget as promised, all 267 announcements are effectively being funded with borrowed money that will be added to the growing federal debt.

“With an average of four spending announcements per day being missed in the wake of SNC-Lavalin, taxpayers should take note: the Trudeau government continues to borrow and spend even though you may not be hearing much about it,” said Wudrick.

To see a complete list of the Trudeau government’s spending announcements since Feb. 7, please click http://www.taxpayer.com/media/CostofSncScandal.pdf
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Offline Lumber

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #109 on: April 08, 2019, 13:36:42 »
The basic problem is that I trust the people less than the politicians. People have very little to lose by being intransigent a**holes while politicians have to keep a little bit of decency visible in order to be re-elected. Call me a cynic if you will but I blame the electorate.

 :coffee:

Not to mention the fact that social media and the unfettered access to unqualified information means that the mass of proles could, and would, easily be swayed by disinformation.

I like the idea that with technology, we could all have a government sponsored and encrypted "app" on our phone that lets us vote at anytime, anywhere, on some important issue. But those same phones are going to be flooded with disinformation from both sides of the argument, and I do not trust the average person to do any real research to suss out the truth.
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #110 on: April 08, 2019, 14:16:44 »
The basic problem is that I trust the people less than the politicians. People have very little to lose by being intransigent a**holes while politicians have to keep a little bit of decency visible in order to be re-elected. Call me a cynic if you will but I blame the electorate.

 :coffee:

Well, if you don't like the electorate, because they are not experts, what do you recommend when the electorate don't like politicians when they demonstrate incompetence?  Are the electorate right to seek out a single expert?  Not my preference. 

I'd rather the public elect socialist baristas and turf them out if they feel they are not up to the task.  And, explicitly, I would not elect anyone, to any position, who proclaims themselves an expert in anything.

Quote
The UK public is increasingly disenchanted with MPs and government and ever more willing to welcome the idea of authoritarian leaders who would ignore parliament, a long-running survey of attitudes to politics has shown.

Amid the Brexit chaos, overall public faith in the political system has reached a nadir not previously seen in the 16-year history of the Hansard Society’s audit of political engagement, lower even than at the depths of the crisis over MPs’ expenses.

Almost three-quarters of those asked said the system of governance needed significant improvement, and other attitudes emerged that “challenge core tenets of our democracy”, the audit’s authors stated.

The study, compiled annually by the democracy charity, found that when people were asked whether “Britain needs a strong ruler willing to break the rules”, 54% agreed and only 23% said no.

In all, 42% of respondents agreed with the idea that many national problems could be dealt with more effectively “if the government didn’t have to worry so much about votes in parliament”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/08/uk-more-willing-embrace-authoritarianism-warn-hansard-audit-political-engagement

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Offline Lumber

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #111 on: April 08, 2019, 14:22:31 »
Well, if you don't like the electorate, because they are not experts, what do you recommend when the electorate don't like politicians when they demonstrate incompetence?  Are the electorate right to seek out a single expert?  Not my preference. 

I'd rather the public elect socialist baristas and turf them out if they feel they are not up to the task.  And, explicitly, I would not elect anyone, to any position, who proclaims themselves an expert in anything.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/08/uk-more-willing-embrace-authoritarianism-warn-hansard-audit-political-engagement

Burke has his limits.  He needs to ensure that he maintains contact with the people he asks to represent.

Ah, that explains the glossed over backstory for the setting of "V, for Vendetta".
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Offline Loachman

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #112 on: April 15, 2019, 21:34:10 »
More bafflement. Part of me cannot imagine how this government cannot forecast potential problems/embarassments in advance and avoid them, but it's not like a pattern didn't begin to form quite some time ago:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trudeau-visit-gurdwara-government-removes-140204148.html

Trudeau walks in Vaisakhi parade after government removes reference to Sikh extremism

The Canadian Press April 13, 2019

<snip>

His morning speech came just hours after the federal government agreed to remove a reference to Sikh extremism from a report on terrorism.

The language was changed late Friday to remove any mention of religion, instead discussing the threat posed by "extremists who support violent means to establish an independent state within India."

The 2018 Public Report on the Terrorism Threat to Canada drew the ire of the Sikh community when it was released in December.

For the first time, the report listed Sikh extremism as one of the top five extremist threats in Canada.

Although the objections were largely about the inclusion of Sikhs at all, because of the report's lack of evidence to back it up, Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale said he would at least ask for a review of the language the report used.

He said entire religions should never be equated with terrorism.

<snip>

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeau-plays-politics-with-terrorism

LILLEY: Trudeau plays politics with terrorism

Brian Lilley Published: April 14, 2019

For Justin Trudeau, the problems of terrorism and extremism in Canada appear to be nothing more than partisan political issues.

I don't make that claim lightly, nor do I make it without some kind of proof. In fact, I make this claim based on Trudeau's actions of the last week.

Trudeau spent most of last week trying to link his Conservative opponents to white supremacist extremism. It's a ploy he's been using since the heinous shooting in Christchurch, New Zealand, last month.

Meanwhile, he pushed through a removal of any reference to Sikh extremism from an intelligence report just before he visited one of the largest Sikh temples in Canada on Saturday.

What else should we make of this?

<snip>

Yet, there was Trudeau on Friday night linking Scheer to white nationalists in a speech to supporters in Mississauga. He tried to link Scheer, a man I've known for 15 years and without a racists bone in his body, to Ontario Premier Doug Ford and then link them both to racism.

Ford won seats across the Toronto area with huge support among the city's many diverse communities. Many of his top staffers, long serving staffers, are visible minorities.

But to Trudeau, linking these two men to white nationalism, white supremacy, without proof is fine because it helps him politically.

Then there is the removal of Sikh extremism from the 2018 Public Report on the Terrorism Threat to Canada, issued by Public Safety Canada, after consultation with the various intelligence agencies of the federal government.

Originally it listed in order, Shia extremism, Right-Wing extremism, Sikh extremism, Sunni extremism, and Canadian extremist travellers.

Now the reference to Sikh extremists is gone and is replaced by, "Extremists who Support Violent Means to Establish an Independent State Within India."

On the website of Public Safety Canada is a statement about the removal of Sikh extremism, which says, "The Government's communication of threats must be clear, concise, and cannot be perceived as maligning any groups."

Funny that.

Shia Muslims are a group representing as many as 200 million Muslims around the world.

Sunni Muslims are another group and they representing more than 1 billion people.

So much for that statement.

Did I mention that the change was made just before Trudeau visited a major Sikh temple?

Here's another oddity to deal with.

When Trudeau's minister for foreign affairs appeared before a Senate committee, she emphasized the importance of calling out violent groups by naming them.

"I absolutely believe we need to name that threat, we need to be aware of it, and we need to work hard to find ways to protect our societies and our people from it," Chrystia Freeland said.

So let's get this straight, we need to be scared of white supremacy and name it, yet when it comes to the group responsible for the deadliest terrorist attack in Canadian history, the Air India bombing, we should drop any reference to that group over political pressure?

Justin Trudeau came to power promising "sunny ways." Now he warns darkly that his opponents are racist and that violence lurks around every conservative corner while turning a blind eye to a history of violence committed in this country.

Turns out his sunny ways were as fake as his feminism.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5165976/sikh-extremism-report-trudeau-india/

April 14, 2019 12:39 pm

Sikh Indian minister slams Trudeau Liberals over 'knee-jerk' changes to terrorism report

By Rahul Kalvapalle Global News   

The leader of India's Sikh-majority Punjab state has slammed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party after the federal government removed direct references to Sikh extremism in a recent terrorism threat report.

Chief Minister Capt. Amarinder Singh, whose meeting with Trudeau was one the flashpoints of the prime minister's troubled trip to India last year, called the move "a threat to Indian and global security" in a statement issued by his office on Saturday.

Singh suggested that Trudeau was kowtowing to Sikh voters ahead of October's federal election, slamming the Liberals for what he called a "knee-jerk decision that was clearly aimed at protecting its political interests in an election year."

<snip>

He said the Trudeau government's removal of references to Sikh extremism from its report amounted to "de facto promotion of extremism."

"It is obvious that Trudeau had played safe in view of the upcoming elections in Canada, giving in to pressure within his country," Singh said, adding that the move was likely to damage Canada's relations with India.

"Trudeau is playing with fire with his decision to assuage inflamed domestic passions through this ill-considered move," he said. "The world cannot afford to fan extremism in any form, which is what the Trudeau government was effectively doing with such ill-thought moves."

<snip>

Offline Loachman

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #113 on: April 15, 2019, 21:51:33 »
And a collection of other Liberal electoral problems...

Apparently, nothing has been learned from the previous Liberal government's "Soldiers in our streets. With guns" fear tactics, or Hillary's "basket of deplorables" moment.

Then there's growing economy, deficit, pipeline, foreign policy, taxation (carbon dioxide and other), military funding, illegal border crossings, and poorer prospects for the young problems, past Khadr payments and holidays (unethical and cringey-costumed), continuing Vice-Admiral Norman and Lavscam affairs, and Jane Philpott may deny them her seat.

And the latest poll shows the continuing effects of all of this:

https://torontosun.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-liberals-are-treating-racism-like-an-electoral-prop-thats-wrong

EDITORIAL: Liberals are treating racism like an electoral prop - that's wrong

Postmedia News Published: April 12, 2019

It looks like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may have found some inspiration in the Jussie Smollett case and has himself decided to cry racism as a PR ploy.

"White supremacy has no place in Canada," Trudeau posted to social media the other day. We'd certainly agree with that statement. But Trudeau didn't leave it at that.

"It's time for all parties, including Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party, to stand together in denouncing hatred in all its forms," Trudeau continued.

It's part of a larger drive-by smear, an attempt to imply in the lead up to the election that Scheer is somehow supportive of or in allegiance with white supremacists. It's a completely groundless accusation, which is why they're so vague in making it. But their goal is to clearly plant the seed.

<snip>

This all came after the Liberals pounced upon comments made by Conservative Senator Leo Housakos who was pressing Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland to be more specific in her suggestion that Canada was somehow a cesspool of white supremacy that places us in grave danger.

Because Housakos was reluctant to believe that our streets have been overrun with violent white supremacists and that Canadians are somehow weak-willed enough to fall prey en masse to such an awful ideology, the Liberals are trying to shamelessly twist it into something it's not. It's pretty weak sauce.

<snip>

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/mackay-of-stormy-days-come-better-ways

MACKAY: Of stormy days come better ways

Peter MacKay Published: April 13, 2019

<snip>

Yet the corrosive forces at play go back far longer than the current scandal that has rocked this Government over its term in office. Our Canada under this Prime Minister is undeniably poorer, less prosperous, less secure, less influential. Faced with increasingly challenging, complex and volatile times, reputationally we are losing our privileged position in the world.

There is a clear need for focus and discipline regarding economy, foreign relations, national security and the environment. Consumed with the inner machinations of political mismanagement, ill-delivered 'priorities' of cannabis legalization, over-lorded carbon tax, sanctimonious scolding of our own population, this government irreparably harms our esteemed pedigree.

<snip>

Feminist, Environmentalist, Indigenous: under him "Canada is back."

Instead? Massive deficits electoral reform un-promised, trade negotiations bungled, immigration policy at sea, pipeline projects cancelled and nationalized, foreign investment drying up, sexual interference queried, humiliating foreign visits ridiculed, vacations in conflict of interest and fundraising likewise, payouts to terrorists voluntary, too many missteps and worse to count.

Now the present scandal spilling into penal arguably spurious prosecution of a respected 35-year RCN veteran, the politicization of the "objective" neutral public service through Wernick clearly confounded as to his role, interference with selection of the judiciary, neglect of military veterans, escalation of taxes on working people, shoddy roll-out of marijuana ironically increasing black market penetration, declining productivity and competitiveness; in effect a general malaise, a country adrift.

<snip>

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/op-ed/comment-friend-or-faux-four-years-of-failed-foreign-policy-1.23789024

Comment: Friend or faux? Four years of failed foreign policy

Times Colonist April 14, 2019 12:55 AM

David Carment, Brandon Jamieson, Fatimah Elfeitori and Emily Robertson

When it comes to foreign policy, members of the Trudeau government are very good at explaining what they think Canadians want. Less clear is if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the right leader to navigate a new world of uncertainty.

This is a key finding from our annual Foreign Policy Report Card evaluating the government's performance in key areas. Heading into an election, the Liberals received the lowest grade ever, scoring a C+ overall and in crucial areas, such as diplomacy, a C-.

We find that that Trudeau's foreign policy is driven largely by domestic pandering with little thought to long-term strategic objectives. A foreign policy designed in dribs and drabs, never planned too far in advance, never looking too far into the future.

While a comprehensive defence review was conducted in 2017, there was never an equivalent foreign-policy review to recalibrate Canada's national interests in an increasingly complex and changing world. For all the change and uncertainty that have roiled alliances and our allies, Trudeau and Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland have sat comfortably idling on the margins, eulogizing the end of the liberal international order and longing for its return, looking back but never forward.

We've heard rousing speeches in Parliament that evoke memories of the "Golden Age" of Canadian diplomacy. A party extolling its proud tradition of statesmanship, always with a hand in negotiations and conflict resolution. And yet, at every turn, this government has helped undermine and weaken the international order and the principles it stands upon.

Under Freeland's watch, Liberal foreign policy has become conservative, hawkish and short-sighted. A foreign policy no longer committed to multilateralism or diplomacy. A foreign policy largely improvised, ad hoc, and built for domestic consumption with a tinge of subservience to the United States.

<snip>

The Liberals' amateur approach to statecraft has crept into other areas of government policy, as well. Few Canadians would know or appreciate that the Canadian Forces are now at one of the highest operational tempos in decades. Our troops are deployed across the Middle East, West Africa and Eastern Europe on a variety of missions. But none of these interventions serve a broader security policy. When we are engaged, we do so half-heartedly. Where we are needed most, such as in Mali, we abandon our allies in the heat of the fight.

The state of our armed forces remains equally depleted. Despite the Liberals' preference for running deficits, our air force continues to fly planes that first saw action during the senior Trudeau's government. Rather than committing to the investments that are so obviously needed, the procurement issue has been punted down the road, beyond the election.

<snip>

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/for-millennials-in-canada-the-middle-class-dream-slips-a-little-further-away-oecd

For millennials in Canada, the middle class dream slips a little further away: OECD

Just 59 per cent of Canadian millennials were found to have attained middle class status by their 20s, compared to 67 per cent of their boomer parents

Tom Blackwell   

April 11, 2019 1:10 PM EDT

With a federal election coming later this year, expect politicians to be talking non-stop about the middle class and its importance to the country.

The problem is, according to a new report, the middle class is shrinking - squeezed by high housing and education costs, displaced by automation and lacking the skills most valued in the digital economy.

And faring particularly badly are millennials, who are less likely to reach middle-income levels in their 20s than their baby-boomer parents, says the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development analysis.

The picture is as bad or slightly worse in Canada as in the average OECD country, said the report, which calls for various government measures to tackle the problems.

<snip>

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/philpott-may-run-again-under-another-party-banner-denies-being-attention-seeking-1.4377894

Philpott may run again under another party banner, denies being 'attention-seeking'

Rachel Aiello Published Sunday, April 14, 2019 7:00AM EDT

OTTAWA - Former Liberal cabinet minister-turned Independent MP Jane Philpott says she's currently seriously exploring a range of options to continue her tenure as a federally elected politician, and is pushing back on accusations made about her intentions and motivations throughout the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

<snip>

Philpott said she has had conversations with both the federal NDP and Green Party, but she could not run for the Conservatives, despite leader Andrew Scheer being one of her and Wilson-Raybould's most vocal supporters over the last two months.

"There are too many policy differences with the Conservatives," she said.

<snip>

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2938/federal-april-2019

Gap Between Second-Place Liberals and Leading Conservatives Widens April 14, 2019 @ 6:59 AM

Toronto, April 9th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1634 Canadian voters, with those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (42%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a third (29%) saying they would support the Liberals and a tenth (12%) supporting the NDP.

1 in 10 (9%) support the Green Party and few support the BQ (6%), the People’s Party of Canada (2%), or another party (1%).

Respondents most likely to support the Conservatives include males (51%), live in the Prairies (Alberta 67%, Manitoba/Saskatchewan 64%), are between the ages of 45-54 (48%), the least educated (51%) and earn between $80,000 to $100,000 (47%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals are those who live in Ontario (36%), those aged 35-44 (34%), 55-64 (33%), or 65 and over (35%), females (35%), those earning $20,000 to $40,000 (31%) or $100,000-$250,000 (31%), and those with post-graduate degrees (39%).

If an election were held today, these results suggest the Conservatives would win a majority government of 192 seats. The Liberals would serve as the official opposition with 105 seats. The BQ would secure 23 seats, the NDP 16 seats, and the Green Party with 2 seats.

1 in 3 say Scheer would make the best Prime Minister A third (30%) say Andrew Scheer would make the best Prime Minister regardless of which party they plan to vote for. A quarter (26%) say Justin Trudeau, 1 in 10 (10%) say Elizabeth May and a similar proportion say (7%) Jagmeet Singh would make the best Prime Minister.

1 in 4 (27%) of respondents say they don’t know.

<snip>

"The Conservative lead over the Liberals has widened as the challenges plaguing the government are beginning to take their toll," said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "With the exception of Elizabeth May, none of the Federal leaders has a positive net favourable score, which suggests people aren’t particularly impressed with most of their options, right now."

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #114 on: April 21, 2019, 10:29:24 »
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/d ... n-2019.pdf (Full Report at Link)

What Happens to the Federal Deficit if a Recession Occurs in 2019?

Summary Of the March 2019 Report


 In its latest fiscal update, the Trudeau government revealed that it intends to continue running sizeable budget deficits for the foreseeable future. There are several risks inherent in the federal government’s current approach to fiscal policy and criticism has frequently revolved around the potential for federal finances to deteriorate rapidly if a recession were to occur.

 In the event of a recession, aside from any policy changes the federal government might make, government revenues will decline and program spending will increase, resulting in larger deficits (or reduced surpluses).

 To assess how a potential recession would affect Canada’s federal finances, this bulletin uses the latest fiscal sensitivity tables from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) and historical economic data from the 1991/92 (mild), 2000/01 (moderate), and 2008/09 (severe) recessions or slowdowns. The analysis excludes the effect of any potential discretionary spending.

 The bulletin finds that the 2019/20 deficit could increase from its current expected level of $19.6 billion to anywhere between $28.2 billion to $34.4 billion depending on the severity of the next recession. In addition, the five-year accumulated deficit from 2019/20 to 2023/24 could increase from its current budgeted level of $76.8 billion to between $114.6 billion and
$142.3 billion (an increase of between $37.8 billion and $65.5 billion).

 This bulletin’s estimates for what the deficit might look like when a recession occurs are conservative. The deficit will likely be much higher than these estimates once the federal government enacts policy changes to stimulate the economy. Regardless of the severity of the recession, the risks posed to federal finances are considerable. The federal government needs to alter Canada’s current trajectory by emphasizing deficit reduction in future budgets.
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Offline Baden Guy

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #115 on: April 21, 2019, 12:18:45 »
The Fraser Institute is a Canadian public policy think tank and registered charity. It has been described as politically conservative and libertarian.

The Toronto Sun is modeled on British tabloid journalism, even borrowing the name of The Sun newspaper published in London, and sharing some similar features of that paper.

When the Post launched, its editorial stance was conservative. It advocated a "unite-the-right" movement to create a viable alternative to the Liberal government of Jean Chrétien, and supported the Canadian Alliance.

The above quotes are all from Wikipedia.

While I have my own political opinion I see value in following a variety of media opinions.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2019, 12:23:26 by Baden Guy »

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #116 on: April 21, 2019, 12:36:50 »
So you're saying the study is biased and that if we hit a recession with our current and projected deficit that we won't have anything to worry about?

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #117 on: April 21, 2019, 18:45:29 »
>While I have my own political opinion I see value in following a variety of media opinions.

Ironic that you quoted three times a source that is notorious for its bias on political matters.
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #118 on: April 30, 2019, 12:52:57 »
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/snc-lavalin-liberal-donors-list-canada-elections-1.5114537

Names of SNC employees, executives behind thousands of dollars in illegal Liberal Party donations revealed

Quote
Former attorney general of Quebec denies involvement in scheme that broke Canadian election law
Harvey Cashore, Frédéric Zalac · CBC News · Posted: Apr 30, 2019 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 3 hours ago

An Elections Canada investigation revealed that between 2004 and 2009, 18 former SNC-Lavalin employees, directors and some spouses contributed nearly $110,000 to the federal Liberals. (Christinne Muschi/Reuters)

A confidential document sent to the Liberal Party of Canada in 2016, and obtained by CBC/Radio-Canada, reveals how top officials at the embattled engineering firm SNC-Lavalin were named in a scheme to illegally influence Canadian elections.

The list of names, compiled in 2016 by federal investigators probing political party donations and leaked to CBC's The Fifth Estate and Radio-Canada's Enquête, raises new questions about an agreement by the Commissioner of Canada Elections not to prosecute the company.

The federal Liberals were sent the list in a letter marked "confidential" from the Commissioner of Canada Elections — the investigative branch of Elections Canada — on Aug. 5, 2016. But for nearly three years, neither Elections Canada nor the Liberal Party shared that information publicly.

The investigation reveals that over a period of more than five years between 2004 and 2009, 18 former SNC-Lavalin employees, directors and some spouses contributed nearly $110,000 to the federal Liberals, including to four party leadership campaigns and four riding associations in Quebec.

According to the letter, the investigation found that SNC-Lavalin reimbursed all of those individual donations — a practice forbidden under the Canada Elections Act.

SNC also made indirect donations to the Conservative Party of just over $8,000, according to investigators.

    See the full list of SNC donors to Liberals and Conservatives

Since 2004, corporations have not been allowed to make donations to federal political parties in order to prevent corporate influence over election campaigns.

"Money is an enormous advantage in an election campaign," said Jeff Ayotte, a defence lawyer with expertise in Canadian election law.

"I don't know SNC-Lavalin's intent, but certainly, the benefit to the candidates is enormous."

The illicit SNC-Lavalin operation went undetected for nearly a decade. Despite the evidence collected by investigators, the Commissioner of Canada Elections decided not to bring charges against the company, which is headquartered in Montreal but operates around the world.

"We know that the decisions to take part in this scheme took place at the very highest levels of SNC-Lavalin," said Ayotte. "'[It] seems to all suggest to me that there should have been a prosecution."
Only 1 SNC executive charged

SNC-Lavalin avoided charges by signing what is known as a "compliance agreement" in 2016 with the Commissioner of Canada Elections after promising not to break the law in the future.

That was not the case for Conservative Peterborough MP Dean DelMastro, who was charged by the commissioner over $21,000 in spending violations in the 2008 federal election and was represented by Ayotte at his 2014 trial.

"You would think that the more serious, more deliberate, more long-term, more sophisticated scheme involving more money and more candidates and more elections would be prosecuted," said Ayotte.

"But just the opposite happened."

Ayotte said the compliance agreement effectively amounts to letting SNC-Lavalin off the hook. Only one SNC-Lavalin official was charged in the scheme.
Former SNC-Lavalin president Jacques Lamarre s told CBC/Radio-Canada there was never any illegal funding scheme happening at SNC-Lavalin. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

The Commissioner of Canada Elections sent the letter to the Liberal Party in 2016 in order to have the $110,000 in improper donations returned to the federal treasury.

The Liberal Party repeatedly refused to provide the names of those involved when asked by reporters for CBC/Radio-Canada. The Conservative Party, which received $8,187.73 in the same scheme, immediately provided its list of SNC-Lavalin names to CBC/Radio-Canada when asked.

Both parties reimbursed the money to the receiver general in August 2016.

Some of those whose names appeared on the list told The Fifth Estate/Enquête that they were not involved in any illegal reimbursement scheme.

However, in his letter to the Liberal Party, the Commissioner of Canada Elections stated that all those donations listed were made, indirectly, by SNC-Lavalin itself. The commissioner stated that the SNC-Lavalin contributions were "ineligible" — meaning they violated the law — and had to be paid back.

    CBC Investigates
    What the SNC board may have known about the firm's dealings in Libya — like the office safe with $10M cash

    Prosecutor cited 'gravity' of alleged SNC-Lavalin offences: court documents

SNC-Lavalin did not return calls from CBC/Radio-Canada. The firm's current president, Neil Bruce, who signed the 2016 compliance agreement, stated in that agreement that all of the senior people involved in the scheme had left the engineering firm by 2016.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to the revelations on his way in to a Liberal cabinet meeting Tuesday morning.

"We recognize that 10 years ago there were issues around political financing that have been raised," he said. "When we came to power and when I became leader of the Liberal Party, we made significant changes to the fundraising regime. We have moved forward on transparency and openness, and that is not what happens anymore."
'I never acted as a straw donor'

The leaked documents show that among the group donating to the Liberals was Kathleen Weil, the spouse of former senior SNC-Lavalin executive Michael Novak. Weil is a former Quebec justice minister and attorney general and a sitting member of the Quebec National Assembly.

The list shows that on June 30, 2004, four years before she was first elected to the Quebec National Assembly, Weil made a $5,000 donation to the federal Liberals that the Commissioner of Canada Elections found was "reimbursed" by SNC-Lavalin.

The letter states Weil made the contribution on the same day that nine other SNC-Lavalin executives or their spouses made similar donations.

In a phone call with CBC/Radio Canada, Weil denied any knowledge of the scheme.

More at link.

Corruption in politics doesn't scare me.
What scares me is how comfortable people are doing nothing about it.

Offline AshleyMarie34

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #119 on: May 03, 2019, 14:55:06 »
Looking at the poll for sometime I thought this year would produce a Liberal minority. However I'm beginning to suspect the Conservatives may now win a minority government. Across Canada the Liberals have been falling more and more. Up north they probably will win Yukon and Northwest Territories while Nunavuts seat goes blue. Despite a breakthrough out west by coming first in British Columbia (which hasn't happened since 1968) and Manitoba ( which only happened during a Cretiens years after 1968) the Conservatives will likely win both provinces back and easily so. Ontario the Conservatives will probably win but narrowly. Quebec is going further away from Liberals but they still narrowly lead there. In Atlantic Canada New Brunswick has been Conservative leaning for months whereas Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia seem to still be leaning Liberal but the Greens are actually beginning to eat at their base. Only Newfoundland seems solidly Liberals. Infact as per provinces won the absolute worst case senario for Trudeau would be winning only Newfoundland (if Ignatieff won there fairly well it won't be leaving the Liberals any time soon) Yukon and perhaps PEI

The four "swing " provinces to watch for will totally be British Columbia and New Brunswick (both at this point has large Conservative leads) Manitoba ( probably going blue but it depends how badly Winnipeg voters vote against them) and Ontario which could still gone either way, but the Conservatives still been leading. Perhaps Quebec if it becomes a conservative landslide

Offline Loachman

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #120 on: May 06, 2019, 00:28:03 »
While it is still early, I'd say that there's a good chance of a Conservative majority if current trends continue.

The Liberals have many vulnerabilities to exploit.

"The budget will balance itself", for one:

https://torontosun.com/news/national/goldstein-trudeau-hiked-canadas-per-person-debt-at-record-pace

GOLDSTEIN: Trudeau hiked Canada's per-person debt at record pace

Lorrie Goldstein Published: April 18, 2019

Justin Trudeau will increase the federal government's per-person debt more than any prime minister in Canadian history who did not face a world war or recession, says a new report by the Fraser Institute.

The conservative think-tank says from 2015, when he assumed office, up to the end of his current Liberal government in October, Trudeau will have increased federal per-person debt by 5.6%, to $32,589.

Trudeau's legacy "will now include record high levels of debt accumulation, due to spending increases that continue to outpace revenue," said Finn Poschmann in the study Examining Federal Debt in Canada by Prime Minister Since Confederation.

<snip>

Following his victory in 2015, Trudeau abandoned his election prediction of three years of "modest" deficits under his leadership followed by a balanced budget in 2019-20, which is the current fiscal year.

Instead, Trudeau racked up deficits at more than twice the rate he predicted.

This year, in which he told Canadians his government would have a $1 billion surplus, he's now predicting a $19.6 billion deficit — $16.6 billion even if you factor in a $3 billion reserve fund.

This is what comes of electing a PM who believes budgets balance themselves.

Inevitably, we're all going to pay for it.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/wudrick-trudeaus-broken-promises-cost-100-billion-and-counting

WUDRICK: Trudeau's broken promises cost $100 billion and counting

Aaron Wudrick Published: March 20, 2019

Most people don't expect their governments to be perfect. But they do expect governments to make some effort to honour commitments, be straight with taxpayers and make the best of circumstances as they come.

In the 2015 election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised he'd run "modest" deficits for a few years, then balance the budget in 2019.

The prime minister just released the 2019 budget. It wasn't what he promised. And it's worth counting the ways in which he misled Canadians in the process of breaking that promise.

<snip>

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fiscal-monitor-trudeau-surplus-1.5112639

Federal government still on pace for $15B deficit despite surplus through most of 2018-19

Last month's budget pledged billions in additional spending for previous fiscal year

Andy Blatchford · The Canadian Press · Posted: Apr 26, 2019 1:31 PM ET

The Trudeau government says it remains on track to post a budgetary shortfall of about $15 billion in 2018-19 even though a new estimate says the federal books ran a $3.1-billion surplus through the first 11 months of the fiscal year.

The number was released Friday in the Finance Department's latest fiscal monitor, a document that provides a preliminary look at the federal balance sheet.

In last month's budget, the Liberals projected the government to post a $14.9-billion shortfall in 2018-19 - so a report showing Ottawa $3.1 billion in the black with one month to go appears to have the government on pace for a better fiscal result.

The surplus, however, is poised to be more than wiped out by promised spending, the department said.

The budget contained "several significant measures" that will be booked in the 2018-19 fiscal year once the legislation is adopted, the report said.

<snip>

Program expenses rose by $12.7 billion, or 4.8 per cent, mostly because of increases in major transfers to individuals and other levels of government as well as higher direct program spending.

<snip>

The department said public debt charges increased $1.7 billion, or 8.4 per cent, in a change mostly due to the higher effective interest rate on government debt.

In February alone, the report said the government had a surplus of $4.3 billion, which was driven by a revenue boost of $3.5 billion, or 12.2 per cent, compared to the year before.

The Liberals' budget also predicted the government would run annual deficits of $19.8 billion in 2019-20, $19.7 billion in 2020-21 and $14.8 billion in 2021-22.

<snip>

Offline Loachman

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #121 on: May 06, 2019, 00:37:28 »
Pipelines will also be prominent. He's managed to piss off both pros and cons by waffling and dithering. We - including the antis (who still like to drive/fly/eat/be comfortable in their houses in the middle of winter/enjoy plastic products) - need oil. We can get it by ship on the east cost, but still can't sell it by ship on the left coast, or move it east by pipeline. Somebody needs to tell them, using simple words, what their lives would be like without oil (ie, short and unpleasant for most of them).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/saudi-oil-imports-rise-canada-diplomacy-1.5096887

Canada's oil imports from Saudi Arabia on the rise since 2014, trade figures show

Total volume of Canadian imports from kingdom has increased by 66 per cent over past 5 years

Chris Arsenault CBC News Posted: Apr 28, 2019 4:00 AM ET

<snip>

A spokesperson for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) said increased imports from Saudi Arabia buttress the call for more pipelines to increase market access for Western Canadian crude.

"Right now, our pipeline network is fairly extensive but it doesn't extend to the East Coast," said Mark Pinney, CAPP's manager of markets and transportation. "There are some refineries Canadian producers are not easily able to reach.... Additional pipeline capacity is the answer to a lot of things."

While oil imports from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have increased, total Canadian imports have been falling since 2016, he said.

Imports are down overall because of the reversal of Enbridge's Line 9 pipeline, allowing more crude from Alberta's oilsands to be easily moved to refineries in Ontario and Quebec, said Pinney.

He said the industry is "frustrated" over slow progress in building new pipelines that would allow domestic producers to compete to supply Eastern Canadian markets, potentially displacing future imports.

<snip>

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #122 on: May 06, 2019, 00:43:41 »
Not much has been said about the Liberal Holy Grail - the coveted UN Security Council seat - of late. I'd thought that they'd given up on the idea as they've been very quiet about it for quite some time, plus did not live up to their campaign promises. Money is still being spent on a half-vast effort, it seems, but not enough to campaign on a second time:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-un-security-council-von-scheel-1.5113585

Canada is facing off against Ireland and Norway for a rotating seat at the table

Elise von Scheel Posted: Apr 29, 2019 4:00 AM ET

<snip>

Documents obtained by CBC News under Access to Information law show the government has ramped up spending as the clock ticks down. Since 2016, $1.5 million has been spent on the campaign - $1 million in the last 10 months alone.

The papers released include inquiries to the ministry from MPs about gifts to foreign dignitaries during Canada's pursuit of the Security Council seat. The replies revealed that there is no set budget for these gifts. Precise details on who received gifts were not provided due to privacy reasons, but the presents included everything from key chains to wild Sockeye smoked salmon.

Canadian officials have made dozens of trips for this campaign, and at least $1 million in additional money was spent in the 2016-2017 fiscal year on salaries for 11 government employees in Ottawa and New York dedicated to the bid full-time. Data was not provided for other years.

<snip>

"We've not yet seen any articulated vision of why we actually want to get the seat," David Perry, a vice-president at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said.

He pointed out that having a clear objective the government could point to - like a better engagement strategy for Asia - would paint a more transparent picture for Canadians and UN members.

<snip>

Perry added that it's not a matter of throwing money at the campaign: The visibility of the prime minister and foreign affairs minister can be just as valuable as a dollar figure.

"It's tough simply because we haven't articulated a view of why they should vote for us."

<snip>

Some have criticized the government for failing to provide more peacekeepers or to extend Canada's commitment to UN missions like the one in Mali.

Canada was also in the hot seat as the prime minister defended his decision to ink a $15-billion deal to supply light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia in spite of its well-known human rights violations.

Competitors Ireland and Norway both have records that may be hard to beat.

Norway is the world's most generous foreign aid contributor, giving over one per cent of its gross domestic product to help developing countries. Canada gives about 0.26 per cent of GDP.

And while Canada has recently returned peacekeepers to the field, Ireland has double the number of blue helmets and an unbroken record of missions dating back to 1958.

<snip>

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #123 on: May 06, 2019, 00:58:32 »
"A Fridge Too Far" is not likely to gain many Liberal votes, and there is now a Change.org petition asking Loblaws to return the handout. That petition, as it draws further attention, may damage the Liberals at least a little bit more. Lavscam has yet to die out, and SNC-Lavalin are still fighting for their DPA. I don't know when Liberal MP LGen (Retired) Andrew Leslie will testify in VAdm Mark Norman's trial, or what, exactly, he will say, but, should it happen prior to the election, that won't help either.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/05/01/news/loblaws-lobbyists-attended-trudeau-fundraiser-getting-grant-refrigerators

Loblaws lobbyists attended Trudeau fundraiser before getting grant for refrigerators

By Carl Meyer in News, Energy, Politics | May 1st 2019

Two Loblaws lobbyists, one of which helped steer the company towards a controversial $12-million federal grant to reduce the energy consumption of their refrigerators, also donated frequently to the Liberal Party and attended a partisan fundraising event with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna and two of her senior officials also met with one of the lobbyists representing Loblaw Companies Ltd., soon after the grant program had opened to businesses, her office confirmed.

McKenna's office said the meeting with the lobbyist was on another topic, plastic waste, and that the grant was awarded following a fair and competitive process. Loblaw Companies also denies that the grant for their fridges was awarded because of lobbying or preferential treatment, and the lobbyists in question say they never lobbied the government over the program on behalf of the company.

But the connections and money flowing between individuals representing Loblaws and the Liberal Party "doesn't pass the smell test," argued NDP ethics critic Charlie Angus. "This is a company that has huge capacity, huge tentacles, huge lobbying," he said in an interview.

"They're very comfortable with the prime minister, they're attending fundraisers with the prime minister and senior staff from the minister of environment's office. So this is a very comfy, cozy relationship....for the Liberals to say (Loblaws) won this challenge fair and square is ridiculous."

The Liberal government has been criticized for weeks over its decision to hand public money to Loblaw Companies, one of Canada's largest corporations, to help make refrigeration systems at hundreds of its supermarkets more efficient.

Conservative environment critic Ed Fast has blasted the Trudeau Liberals for giving handouts to "the wealthy and well-connected." On Monday, the NDP demanded that the government cancel the $12-million grant.

McKenna has said Loblaws won the grant out of the government's $500-million Low Carbon Economy Challenge (LCEC) through a competitive process driven by her department, and that it will help slash the company's annual carbon pollution by roughly a quarter, while the company pays for three-quarters of the cost.

<snip>

A review of lobbying and political donation records, as well as attendance records at Liberal Party donor events, shows that while Loblaws was awaiting the results of this competition, it retained Liberal-friendly lobbyists pushing its message in close proximity to powerful people in Canadian politics.

<snip>

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/liberals-accused-of-cover-up-after-report-reveals-details-of-snc-lavalins-illegal-donations

Liberals accused of cover-up after report reveals details of SNC-Lavalin's illegal donations

A CBC investigation listed for the first time individuals accused of indirectly funnelling almost $110,000 of SNC's money to the Liberals, and $8,000 to the Tories

Marie-Danielle Smith April 30, 2019

OTTAWA - Conservatives accused Liberals of a different sort of SNC-Lavalin cover-up in question period Tuesday after a report revealed the names of employees involved in the Montreal firm's illegal attempts to influence Canadian politics between 2004 and 2011.

A CBC investigation revealed new details about the scheme and listed for the first time individuals accused of indirectly funnelling almost $110,000 of the company's money to the Liberal Party, and another $8,000 to the Conservative Party. The parties became aware of the lists during a 2016 investigation by the Commissioner of Canada Elections.

On his way into cabinet on Tuesday morning, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his party has "moved forward on transparency and openness and that is not what happens anymore."

During question period, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer accused him of a lack of transparency for sitting on the information for three years. "It took investigative reporting to uncover it," he said. "Why did the prime minister's recent election financing changes not take action to expose this cover-up?"

Trudeau responded: "These improper donations to two political parties were made over a decade ago. Under my leadership, we have raised the bar on openness and transparency."

<snip>

Drawing that link, the Conservatives' deputy leader, Lisa Raitt, questioned whether the prime minister's office had any contact with Elections Canada in 2016, when SNC-Lavalin signed a compliance agreement with the Commissioner of Canada Elections, Yves Côté, thereby saving them from a criminal prosecution over elections violations.

"We have seen this before," Raitt said, alluding to Wilson-Raybould's testimony.

Bardish Chagger, the leader of the government in the House of Commons, didn't give a yes or no answer but said Elections Canada is independent and "decisions are taken separate from any government."

CBC's The Fifth Estate reported that it obtained the names from a leaked confidential document, which Côté had sent to the Liberal Party in 2016. It lists 18 former SNC-Lavalin employees or their spouses who donated almost $110,000 to Liberal Party riding associations and leadership campaigns. The commissioner's investigation revealed the company reimbursed the donors, which is illegal.

SNC-Lavalin also made about $8,000 worth of contributions to the Conservative Party in this way, as recently as 2011. Since 2004 it has been illegal for corporations to donate to federal parties at all.

In the compliance agreement with the commissioner in 2016, the company agreed not to break the law again. Lists of names went to the Liberals and Conservatives so they could reimburse the receiver general for the associated donations, which both did. CBC reported that Tories provided the names when asked, but Liberals repeatedly refused.

<snip>

others confirmed they received bonuses as compensation, and former senior employees confirmed being aware of, or being a part of, an effort to solicit political donations from employees.

The compliance agreement itself, which is available on the commissioner's website, states that SNC-Lavalin implemented compliance measures and mechanisms as recommended by elections officials. But it did not preclude individuals from being charged as a result of the then-ongoing investigation. One former SNC-Lavalin vice president was ultimately charged for the breaches in May 2018. Normand Morin pled guilty to two violations of the Canada Elections Act in November, for "collusion" with senior executives on behalf of political parties, and paid a $2,000 fine.

In 2014, Tory MP Dean Del Mastro faced criminal prosecution and served jail time for financial violations of the Elections Act that involved considerably less money.

"It just boggles the mind that the so-called watchdog of elections would not have taken the (SNC) matter to court and prosecuted that offence," Pierre Poilievre told reporters after question period. "It's insane. He's got a lot of explaining to do."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-federal-prosecution-fights-back-against-snc-lavalin-bid-to-quash/

Federal prosecution fights back against SNC-Lavalin bid to quash criminal case

Sean Fine Justice Writer Published May 3, 2019

The federal prosecution service is fighting back against a bid by SNC-Lavalin to quash the criminal case against it.

The Quebec engineering giant is hoping to show that the prosecution service acted in bad faith when it declined to negotiate a settlement – known as a deferred prosecution agreement – and instead insisted on seeking a conviction. The charges against the company relate to allegations of fraud and bribery in construction contracts in Libya between 2001 and 2011.

But SNC-Lavalin is alleging bad faith before the Federal Court of Appeal, when it did not do so before a lower court, where it lost its bid for a judicial review of the prosecutor's decision in its case. The federal prosecution service says it should not be permitted to make a completely new argument in its appeal.

<snip>


Offline Loachman

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #124 on: May 06, 2019, 01:31:12 »
While the Conservatives set a new record for fundraising, Liberal support continues to slide (and I disagree with the assumption that "surging Tory support is soft" - "surging" and simultaneously "soft"? - in the second article below), as does Trudeau's personal approval rating. He has even been lampooned on The Simpsons, and his party described as "rudderless" in the Toronto Star. I'm not sure about Chantal Hébert's comment regarding more Liberal MPs possibly taking early retirement. Another article that I read pointed out that fewer than historically normal have done so, at least at this point in the lead-up to the election. Their morale has yet to break, it would seem, but that could change.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/conservatives-break-fundraising-record-outpace-liberals-on-candidate-recruitment-as-election-looms#comments-area

Conservatives break fundraising record, outpace Liberals on candidate recruitment as election looms

The party hauled in just over $8 million from the beginning of the year to the end of March

Marie-Danielle Smith April 29, 2019 5:06 PM EDT

OTTAWA - The Conservative Party has broken a record for the best-ever first quarter fundraising result by a federal political party, which they are taking as a sign Canadians have been paying attention as the SNC-Lavalin scandal has unfolded.

The party hauled in just over $8 million from the beginning of the year to the end of March, according to data the party released to the National Post. It was the finest first-quarter showing in "Canadian political history," said Conservative spokesman Cory Hann, though donations have only been reported this way since 2005. The next-best result had come in the first quarter of 2011, when Stephen Harper's Conservatives raised nearly $7.4 million and went on to win a majority government that May.

The number of individual contributors has also swelled - 50,026 donors put money into the Conservative pot, the largest number of quarterly donors to pitch in for any political party since before the last federal election.

<snip>

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/04/28/liberals-trudeau-hit-new-low-but-poll-suggests-surging-tory-support-is-soft/

Liberals, Trudeau hit new low but poll suggests surging Tory support is soft

by Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press

Posted Apr 28, 2019 7:00 am PDT

OTTAWA - A new poll suggests support for Justin Trudeau, his government and his party sank to a new low this month, just six months before Canadians will decide whether to re-elect the Liberals or give them the boot after just one term.

According to the Leger poll, conducted April 18-22 for The Canadian Press, just 27 per cent of respondents said they'd vote for Trudeau's Liberals - 13 points behind Scheer's front-running Conservatives, who, at 40 per cent, were in the range needed to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

The Tories led in every region except Quebec, where the Liberals enjoyed an eight-point lead with 31 per cent support; the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois were tied at 23 per cent.

<snip>

Only 30 per cent of respondents said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the Trudeau government while 65 per cent said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied - worrying numbers for the prime minister that were reflected across every region and demographic group.

Moreover, Trudeau was five points behind Scheer on the question of who would make the best prime minister, with 20 per cent to the Conservative leader's 25 per cent.

Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.

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The latest poll numbers are the lowest Leger has recorded for the Liberals and Trudeau since they took power in 2015.

The poll suggests potentially more trouble for Trudeau is in store following the election of openly hostile conservative governments in provinces across the country, particularly Ontario and Alberta.

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Noting that some provincial conservative leaders, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford and incoming Alberta premier Jason Kenney, won election by campaigning against the Trudeau government, Bourque said: "One more variable that Mr. Trudeau will need to consider in the next federal election is the fact that a lot of regional barons have turned people against Ottawa."

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https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeaus-best-poll-numbers-still-have-him-losing-the-fall-election

LILLEY: Trudeau's best poll numbers still have him losing the fall election

Brian Lilley Published: May 4, 2019

How bad are Justin Trudeau's political fortunes these days?

The latest polling numbers from Campaign Research are the best he's seen in some time and he's still losing to Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives.

A poll of 1,471 adult Canadians conducted on April 30 and May 1 found 35% would back the Conservatives while 31% would back the Liberals.

The NDP under leader Jagmeet Singh were in a distant third place with 17% support.

Believe it or not, those are good numbers for Trudeau these days.

He's been dealing with some polls, like Leger, putting him at 27% support to Scheer's 40%, and Angus Reid putting the Conservatives at 38% to the Liberals 25%.

Most polls show a tighter race, as does the latest from Campaign Research, and even then it is not good news for Trudeau and his team.

Regionally, his party only has a commanding lead in Quebec where the Liberals best the Conservatives 36% to 21% support. The Liberals have lost their lead in Atlantic Canada to the Conservatives and in British Columbia, things are looking bad with the Conservatives holding a 15 point lead over the Liberals.

The Liberals are actually in third place in B.C. with 23% support compared to 24% for the NDP and 38% for the Conservatives.

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The SNC-Lavalin scandal that rocked his government costing him two cabinet ministers and two top advisors was back into the news this past week.

Not only was it back in the news due to The Simpsons episode that made it a punchline but also because of revelations about illegal donations to the Liberal Party and the ongoing court battle by the company to escape their bribery and corruption charges.

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https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/05/02/is-trudeau-the-prime-minister-or-just-the-liberal-leader.html

Is Trudeau the prime minister or just the Liberal leader?

By Susan Delacourt Thu., May 2, 2019

Conservatives gave Justin Trudeau a demotion this week - a nominal one, at least.

On Wednesday, one Conservative critic after another stood up and addressed their questions to the "Liberal leader" - not the prime minister, as is conventional practice in the House.

It's a small thing, perhaps, but it coincided with the unveiling of a new Conservative attack-ad campaign, featuring the same tag line in each of the five spots: "Justin Trudeau: Not as Advertised." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNnVD_tLDzg

Casting Trudeau as a mere party leader, or a faulty product, gives us some idea of where the Conservatives believe the prime minister is vulnerable as the fall election looms. The idea, presumably, is to remind voters that Conservatives had warned people in 2015 that Trudeau was neither prime ministerial nor ready for high office. Remember "nice hair?"

Trudeau, we'll also recall, took the unusual step of replying to those attack ads with his own "I'm ready" ads - an option that may be a little more difficult in 2019, what with Conservatives saying now he is "not as advertised."

Using advertising to accuse an opponent of false advertising is maybe a bit meta for some voters and even cultural critics, but it's potentially effective too, in a pre-emptive kind of way. What kind of ads can Trudeau launch in reply this time? "I am as advertised?"

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https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/05/03/liberals-are-stuck-on-justin-trudeaus-rudderless-ship.html

Liberals are stuck on Justin Trudeau's rudderless ship
By Chantal Hébert Fri., May 3, 2019

As prime minister, Justin Trudeau is not one who is usually eclipsed on a Canadian stage - especially on Parliament Hill.

The occasion of Jason Kenney's return to his former haunts Thursday in his new role as Alberta's premier was a clear exception.

For better or for worse, the premier's message that Trudeau's environmental policies are putting his province's economy in peril, alienating Albertans and putting dangerous strains on the unity of the federation, resonated loud and clear. Absent a strong federal counter-message, Kenney literally had the stage to himself.

By the time the Alberta premier left town, no one doubted where he stood. The same could not so easily be said of Trudeau.

On the energy/environment front, the prime minister has managed to lose pro-pipeline advocates to the perception that he is against them, even as more and more environmental advocates seriously doubt the depth of his commitment to the climate-change cause.

The boilerplate comments he and his government offered in response to Kenney's arguments did little to advance the prime minister's case with either camp.

On this as on other files - think of Indigenous reconciliation or refugee policy, to name just two - there is by now more confusion than clarity about the government's ultimate purpose, and questions as to whether it has lost the thread of its own narrative.

Those questions predate the so-called SNC-Lavalin affair. But they have become more acute as the failure of Trudeau's team to put the crisis behind it emerged as a possible template for its overall management of the government.

On the day after Kenney's visit, yet another poll documented the decline of the Trudeau brand.

The latest Angus Reid sounding pegged dissatisfaction with the prime minister's performance at 67 per cent, the highest of any federal leader. It also placed the Liberals in distant second place behind the Conservatives.

Given the short time frame between now and the election, those numbers are more likely to prompt more Liberal MPs to exit the scene than to set a leadership revolt in motion. Those who are seeking re-election this fall have already chosen to sink or swim with Trudeau.

But by now, some have to be wondering whether that means they elected to go down with a rudderless ship.

As his fortunes have unravelled over the past months, Trudeau has more often looked like a passenger at the mercy of the elements than a captain in command of the helm.

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