Author Topic: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class  (Read 88099 times)

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Offline YZT580

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #125 on: December 16, 2018, 23:31:47 »
With the exception of under ice work which requires a boat of a totally different class can the Victorias do the job.  Are they a sound hull to begin with and can they be maintained properly to the point where they are a valid threat to any erstwhile enemy.  Will upgrades be cost effective?  The answers to those questions all seem to be positive.  They seem to be good boats with a bad public relations history.  The problem really is can we keep the government of the days feet to the fire to ensure that those upgrades are done completely and without cutting corners on costs. 

Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #126 on: December 16, 2018, 23:32:29 »
And the youngest of the B52s was built in 1962 - 56 years and counting.

While I agree that the age of an airframe alone does not tell the tale, I will note two things:

The B52 is not even remotely operated in the same airframe fatigue envelop as a CP140.

The USAF lavishes more money on avionics/weapons upgrades/sensors/airframe rebuilds than we could ever possibly dream of.

Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #127 on: December 16, 2018, 23:33:38 »
With the exception of under ice work which requires a boat of a totally different class can the Victorias do the job.  Are they a sound hull to begin with and can they be maintained properly to the point where they are a valid threat to any erstwhile enemy.  Will upgrades be cost effective?  The answers to those questions all seem to be positive.  They seem to be good boats with a bad public relations history.  The problem really is can we keep the government of the days feet to the fire to ensure that those upgrades are done completely and without cutting corners on costs.

They are a good boat, with bad PR.

Offline Dimsum

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #128 on: August 06, 2019, 01:48:48 »
Quote
Defence ordered to hand over documents on $50bn submarine deal with French
Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick accuses department of ‘unlawful conduct’ for wrongly withholding sensitive material

The defence department has been accused of “unlawful conduct” after it wrongly withheld sensitive documents about Australia’s $50bn submarine deal with a French multinational.

The government’s massive future submarines project has been under intense scrutiny since a French arms manufacturer, DCNS, won the contract in 2016. The project has been described as the largest defence procurement in Australia’s history, but South Australian politicians feared the state’s shipbuilder, ASC, was unfairly shut out of a major role in the work, risking local jobs.

Two years ago, the former senator Nick Xenophon lodged a freedom of information request to attempt to obtain a 2015 document outlining DCNS’s plan for involving local industry.

Xenophon’s successor in parliament, the Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick, believes the document will show DCNS, now known as Naval Group, wanted to involve Australian industry and partner with ASC in building the submarines from the start, but met resistance from the Australian government.

[More in link]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/19/defence-ordered-to-hand-over-documents-on-50bn-submarine-deal-with-french
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #129 on: November 18, 2019, 16:28:19 »
His patience with the Senator is remarkable, at least she didn't ask if the island would capsize..... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYF08jJi9Hg&fbclid=IwAR0kh12fX-r_-J-UwLIZ3WcQsawAxnE-ANi1dzdCFVLmUzYIp6Q2fv93S5M

Online tomahawk6

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #130 on: November 18, 2019, 16:40:19 »
Is the French sub better than other potential buys ?

Offline Dimsum

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #131 on: November 18, 2019, 17:11:13 »
Is the French sub better than other potential buys ?

Unsure.  However, that sub is a diesel-electric version of the French Suffren-class nuclear attack submarine.  That is not a trivial change, and Australia is its launch customer.
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Online suffolkowner

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #132 on: November 18, 2019, 21:35:33 »
His patience with the Senator is remarkable, at least she didn't ask if the island would capsize..... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYF08jJi9Hg&fbclid=IwAR0kh12fX-r_-J-UwLIZ3WcQsawAxnE-ANi1dzdCFVLmUzYIp6Q2fv93S5M

Colin, I'm guessing the Senator had been briefed going in but didn't quite grasp everything.

this article covers some of the concerns/issues with the choice of pump jet propulsion at the lower speeds of a diesel/electric submarine

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/pumpjet-future-submarine-not-fast-slow/

when you combine that with choice to stick with lead acid batteries for the first batch

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/science-not-fiction-modern-batteries-for-modern-submarines/

add the immaturity of the French Barracuda class and the push by some proponents on www.aspistrategist.org.au and gentleseas.blogspot.com to forgo the diesel/electric option and pursue the nuclear and you can see where she was coming from

I wonder if she had been given information that suggested that the Attack class would be limited to 20min at peak speed with the pumpjet on lead acid batteries as there's something that's familiar there







Offline Colin P

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #133 on: November 18, 2019, 22:24:23 »
I think the Admiral made it clear that they had their marching orders as to it was to be a conventional boat and not nuclear. I suspect she should be asking her political colleagues that question and not the military.

As for the batteries, it's only in the last couple of years have the SK/Japanese decided to go with lithium-ion batteries in a sub, I suspect the Aussies are not willing to stick their neck that far out and may make the sub upgradable. I believe the Aussies want to reduce the risks as much as possible.

The pump jet is interesting, perhaps the French have developed a variable duct that would address some of the slow speed issues?

Online tomahawk6

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #134 on: December 12, 2019, 07:47:02 »

Offline OceanBonfire

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #135 on: May 07, 2020, 13:01:46 »
Quote
Construction of Australia’s Future Submarine to start in 2024 but contract details yet to be decided

The head of Australia's AUD50 billion (USD32.2 billion) Sea 1000 programme has confirmed that construction of the pressure hull for the first of 12 Attack-class conventionally powered submarines is scheduled to begin in 2024.

This will follow the construction in 2023 of a hull qualification section to prove procedures, equipment, and skills at the submarine construction facility now being built at Osborne North near Adelaide by government-owned Australian Naval Infrastructure to the functional requirements of Sea 1000's French-owned designer and build partner Naval Group.

Greg Sammut, general manager, submarines, in the Department of Defence's (DoD's) Capability and Sustainment Group (CASG), told Jane's on 5 May that details of the first submarine construction contract were still under consideration.

...


https://www.janes.com/article/96017/construction-of-australia-s-future-submarine-to-start-in-2024-but-contract-details-yet-to-be-decided
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Offline calculus

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #136 on: May 07, 2020, 16:30:44 »
This project is off the rails. Costs have gone way past initial estimates, at $90 Billion for the build and something like $140 Billion in operating costs. Initial build estimates were $20 Billion. So one has to question if this is even worth doing anymore. They might be building the best diesel boats around, but for that cost they could buy double the amount of another advanced design such as the A26 Oceanic ER.

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26898/Australia_to_spend__90B_for_12_Attack_class_Submarines

Offline Dimsum

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #137 on: May 07, 2020, 16:55:11 »
This project is off the rails. Costs have gone way past initial estimates, at $90 Billion for the build and something like $140 Billion in operating costs. Initial build estimates were $20 Billion. So one has to question if this is even worth doing anymore. They might be building the best diesel boats around, but for that cost they could buy double the amount of another advanced design such as the A26 Oceanic ER.

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26898/Australia_to_spend__90B_for_12_Attack_class_Submarines

Not to mention the timeline for delivery.  20-ish years for 12 boats.
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #138 on: May 07, 2020, 17:24:24 »
The cost to build has gone up 40 Billion, how much though is inflation and how much is unforseen costs? Of course it takes money to run a fleet, even if they get 6 of these in the end, it means they can't be ignored as a regional player. I foresee Australia aggressively the further 6 to Allies, which would actually work for us. 

Offline RDBZ

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #139 on: May 08, 2020, 05:32:54 »
This project is off the rails. Costs have gone way past initial estimates, at $90 Billion for the build and something like $140 Billion in operating costs. Initial build estimates were $20 Billion. So one has to question if this is even worth doing anymore. They might be building the best diesel boats around, but for that cost they could buy double the amount of another advanced design such as the A26 Oceanic ER.

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26898/Australia_to_spend__90B_for_12_Attack_class_Submarines

This is a total non-story, because "Prices calculated in 2016-17 have been revised according to present exchange rates and inflation calculations.."  The estimated approved project cost and budgeted expenditure were all expressed in then present day (2016-17) dollars, the only way expenses in future years can be evaluated and assessed, particularly against other projects across different timeframes.  Its consistent  with good practice in pretty much every industry.  Sure, costs will inflate over time, but so too will government revenues and the DoD budget.

A 20 year program makes sense in the context of the continuous build strategy. This design is the baseline sub that, in progressively updated forms, will be in production over 20 years before a change over to a new generation platform.   It's no different to the USN Arleigh Burke program that has been in build for in excess of 30 years.

Offline calculus

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #140 on: May 08, 2020, 09:42:57 »
Except the cost to build was initially reported as $20 Billion, then reported as $80 Billion back in January, and this week is now $90 Billion. That is quite indicative of a project running out of control. Also, objectively, a tremendous amount of money for 12 non-nuclear subs.

https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/submarine-costs-spiraling-into-the-stratosphere

https://www.governmentnews.com.au/defence-megaproject-hit-by-delays-blowouts/

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26898/Australia_to_spend__90B_for_12_Attack_class_Submarines

Offline Underway

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Re: Australian navy's hunt for new sub to replace Collins class
« Reply #141 on: May 08, 2020, 15:36:33 »
The truth may very well be somewhere in the middle. 

Calculus is correct in that its not uncommon for projects to have won bids with "0" design/work hours allotted on certain aspects of the project in the requirements.  These aspects might end up being more important as one gets down to brass tacks.  The RAN might have changed their mind on something, might put more value in some tech, might have government-provided equipment that needs to be integrated etc..  so the costs go up.

And of course, RDBZ is correct that inflation needs to be taken into account.  Military equipment inflation is running somewhere around 14% I recently heard.  Its fast outpacing regular inflation.  That's a lot of money over the course of a decades-long build program.