Trudeau Popularity - or not. Nanos research

[QV]

I ack that I’m privileged enough to be making enough money where I don’t mind paying more in taxes to help out the less fortunate in our society.

I support a lower flat tax rate across the board. I think that is fair.

And I also support the option for people like Dimsum who want to contribute more of their personal earnings to general revenue for the government to distribute as it sees fit. There should be a mechanism for that too. Everybody wins this way.

 

[FSTO]

A government not introducing such an item does not mean members will not introduce such an item for their members to support.

As the city GoC has proven, there are many ways to do things you said you wouldn't do.

The CPC has always been open to private members bills. They have also said the cabinet would not support such private members bills for abortion. I realize that this gives the LPC the opening to fear monger, such is the risk.

 

[Remius]

O’Toole was the leader in the last election.

I voted for him. Two main reasons.

I was hoping he would bring a bit more balance to the party. He increased the seat count and got turfed for it. That demonstrated to me that the party I could potentially support in a future election might not be that serious about governing.

Despite his confusing platform flip flopping, it was a decent platform.

Second reason was that the election was opportunist and completely unnecessary. I thought that JT needed to be sent a message about that.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I voted for him. Two main reasons.

I was hoping he would bring a bit more balance to the party. He increased the seat count and got turfed for it. That demonstrated to me that the party I could potentially support in a future election might not be that serious about governing.

Despite his confusing platform flip flopping, it was a decent platform.

Second reason was that the election was opportunist and completely unnecessary. I thought that JT needed to be sent a message about that.

I suppose, but it wasn't a palace coup. The vast majority of card carrying conservatives made that decision. Flip flopping, especially when campaigning is a death knell. PP had a better message that resonated with the majority, so he got the job.

I agree 100% with your second point.

I also voted for O'Toole, in the leadership race as well as the general election. Until PP threw his hat in the ring and he got my vote in the next leadership race.

 

[Haggis]

I think Trudeau spent an inordinate amount of effort in all those podcasts reinforcing the ‘for the next year and a half…’ to let people know (or believe) that he will stay on to pitch achieving a 14-year legacy to the Canadian people…the week after Diwali…. eg.





Those ‘where do you fall on the political spectrum’ surveys/questionaires seem to be relatively imaginative with how they quantify/corroborate a respondent’s true party affiliation. Without winding my tinfoil hat on too tightly, my gut feel (ie. Qualitative assessment) is that many of those surveys skew left. It would be interesting to have a related, follow-up survey to analyze the delta between survey result and respondent’s belief where they fall.



To gratuitously pull a datapoint from the current CPC Party Policy ( https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf )…

View attachment 85058

But some folks shouldn’t let a pesky party policy statement get in the way of gaslighting hyperbole…okay, okay, that’s a bit tough…how about get in the way of one’s own opinion?

One of my co-workers was listening to an interview yesterday at lunch on their laptop. I didn't see who, exactly was involved, but the interviewee sounded like Vassy Kapelos (I could be wrong) The interviewee was a member of the Liberal caucus. The paraphrased BLUF was that "if PP is wiling to use the not withstanding clause to go after criminals, you can be guaranteed he'll use it to roll back abortion and LBGTQ2S+ rights as well.

As dapaterson noted above, PP has stated occasionally and selectively, that he is pro-choice. That's good. But he has to be consistent! And, if a single CPC candidate voices an opinion to the contrary, that will hurt him a lot.

 

[Remius]

I suppose, but it wasn't a palace coup. The vast majority of card carrying conservatives made that decision. Flip flopping, especially when campaigning is a death knell. PP had a better message that resonated with the majority, so he got the job.

Not exactly. It was the caucus that ousted him.

That message turned centrists like myself away. But I acknowledge that centrists are few and far between these days so the impact is probably negligible.

 

[Good2Golf]

As dapaterson noted above, PP has stated occasionally and selectively, that he is pro-choice. That's good. But he has to be consistent! And , if a single CPC candidate voices an opinion to the contrary, that will hurt him a lot.

True. For something that is a party policy (like the CPC’s policy statement #86 - no abortion legislation), then I don’t have an issue with that being whipped, ie. No private member bills to the contrary. The flip-side of whipping an issue thusly being that a plurality of constituents in a CPC MP’s specific riding (eg. the one who raised such a hypothetical private members bill) may themselves feel they aren’t being represented fairly.

Personally, if it’s in the party’s policy…any party…then it’s fair to not see any of that party’s MPs proposing private bills that contradict party policy. If constituents feels strongly enough against, then for now, they will have to wait until the next Federal election is held, pending any movement on Trudeau’s 2015 promise for electoral reform.

Interestingly, the Trudeau Government gave the fiuddle-duddle digit to a non-binding Parliamentary Petition to allow Federal MPs to be recalled under referendum conditions. The Government response to the petition reads like a “Hey!! Did you even read the petition text, Government?!?” Petition e-980 - Petitions

 

[The Bread Guy]

I think Trudeau spent an inordinate amount of effort in all those podcasts reinforcing the ‘for the next year and a half…’ to let people know (or believe) that he will stay on to pitch achieving a 14-year legacy to the Canadian people…the week after Diwali…. eg.

Yup - but I remember a rule from the series "Yes, Minister" where someone wanting to be the leader of a party starts off by saying s/he has no interest in seeking the leadership. Maybe the reverse is in play here? Then again, I also agree with some who say the two team coaches hate each other so much that they WANT to fight it out. Sorta like this in their inside voices, being the last defence against the other side?

... Those ‘where do you fall on the political spectrum’ surveys/questionaires seem to be relatively imaginative with how they quantify/corroborate a respondent’s true party affiliation. Without winding my tinfoil hat on too tightly, my gut feel (ie. Qualitative assessment) is that many of those surveys skew left ...

If most surveys ask what party the respondent last voted for, what party they'd vote for now or how they identify, are you suggesting righty-ish folks would be more likely to identify left-er than they are?

... It would be interesting to have a related, follow-up survey to analyze the delta between survey result and respondent’s belief where they fall ...

Maybe, or have a pre-screening survey to see where they sit on the spectrum, such as it is these days.

... To gratuitously pull a datapoint from the current CPC Party Policy ( https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf )…
View attachment 85058
But some folks shouldn’t let a pesky party policy statement get in the way of gaslighting hyperbole…okay, okay, that’s a bit tough…how about get in the way of one’s own opinion?

As far as a policy resolution being an iron-clad commitment (as opposed as what party members want), far be it from me to contradict what the party leader himself said before the convention that pulled said document together

(Source of quote)
This was also a point made in these threads when some pointed out what they considered to be the (in the eye of the beholder, anyway) more unconventional elements of the same document.

... Personally, if it’s in the party’s policy…any party…then it’s fair to not see any of that party’s MPs proposing private bills that contradict party policy. If constituents feels strongly enough against, then for now, they will have to wait until the next Federal election is held, pending any movement on Trudeau’s 2015 promise for electoral reform ...

Agreed, but how about, say, petitions to the House calling for changes? While Harper was the coach, saying (and enforcing) that abortion was pretty much settled and not a can to be re-opened, a lot of Team Blue MP's would present petitions calling for a range of restrictions on abortion access. To be fair, this may also have been just allowing enough steam to escape to prevent the pressure cooker from blowing up, but cynics/haters could throw this out as proof that it may be off the table, but ....

 

[Good2Golf]

If most surveys ask what party the respondent last voted for, what party they'd vote for now or how they identify, are you suggesting righty-ish folks would be more likely to identify left-er than they are?

No, that the survey would tell eighty-ish folks they are more left than they think. I step by step analyzed on of the pools I took, tri-party policy basis line by line, and the survey was very generous towards a left (actually Liberal, not so much NDP, which did significantly lefty-ize recently)

As far as a policy resolution being an iron-clad commitment (as opposed as what party members want), far be it from me to contradict what the party leader himself said before the convention that pulled said document together

True. But I do see difference between resolution by resolution re-confirmation and once things are locked-down, per-se, in a full policy statement. of course we do see examples where the policy didn’t ‘project into the implementation space.’ …cough…Electoral Reform…cough…

 

[Brad Sallows]

A government not introducing such an item does not mean members will not introduce such an item for their members to support.

As the city GoC has proven, there are many ways to do things you said you wouldn't do.

Come back to earth. As I've pointed out repeatedly: to pass anti-abortion legislation requires a majority of members in the House (I'll allow for the possibility that some non-CPC might join in) who will support the legislation. That first requires electing those members. There are simply not enough ridings in Canada with enough voters willing to elect such members for such a majority to form. Any private bill will fail provided the CPC respects the simple statement it has made, and it is highly improbable that the CPC would be willing to extinguish its electoral prospects for a generation by perfidiously ignoring the statement.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I support a lower flat tax rate across the board. I think that is fair.

And I also support the option for people like Dimsum who want to contribute more of their personal earnings to general revenue for the government to distribute as it sees fit. There should be a mechanism for that too. Everybody wins this way.

There already is. You write a cheque to the Receiver-General and send it to the CCRA; put "Gift to Canada" on the memo line.

 

[The Bread Guy]

…But I do see difference between resolution by resolution re-confirmation and once things are locked-down, per-se, in a full policy statement. of course we do see examples where the policy didn’t ‘project into the implementation space.’ …cough…Electoral Reform…cough…

Good example! In fact, during the last Ontario election campaign, people were commenting that platforms aren’t even really needed, so there is more than one way to see some wanna and should stuff not quite make it onto the “mission accomplished “ list. They all have to be watched pretty much day by day, no matter what colour jerseys if they’re at the helm.

 

[RangerRay]

O’Toole lost vs Poilievre because he was trying to govern from the centre. If he was the CPC leader I likely would have voted for them.

It was actually Beijing-friendly Tories that had a hand in ousting him. His sucking and blowing on the Convoy tipped him over the edge.

But I still contend he was the best prime minister we never had.

Chinese-Canadian Tories urge O'Toole to resign, saying tough-on-China platform alienated voters

'Why don’t we leave the destiny of China to the Chinese people who live inside?... Any time you’re interfering, what happens? You just raise the nationalism'

nationalpost.com

Conservatives have softened China stance since riding losses in 2021 election, critics say

Pierre Poilievre has stressed that Conservatives are friends of the Chinese people and share values like hard work, family and tradition.

nationalpost.com

Conservative leadership contender Patrick Brown wins support of Beijing-allied groups, senator

After their party lost another federal election last year, the Chinese Canadian Conservative Association (CCCA) made some

nationalpost.com

 

[lenaitch]

1042/18

A government not introducing such an item does not mean members will not introduce such an item for their members to support.

As the city GoC has proven, there are many ways to do things you said you wouldn't do.

You mean Private Member Bills? According to the Canadian Parliamentary Review, between Jan 1994 and Oct 2000 (four sittings) there were 1042 PMBs introduced in the House; a grand total of 18 received Royal Assent. Not a great track record. Pushing for legislation that is in direct opposition to a stated party platform plank likely has even less potential for success and probably political suicide.

No doubt, governments can turn on their statements and platforms, but I think the fact that abortion has been political kryptonite for over 50 years is probably instructive.

 

[QV]

There already is. You write a cheque to the Receiver-General and send it to the CCRA; put "Gift to Canada" on the memo line.

@dimsum, there you go. No need to support higher taxes for all to fulfill your personal altruism. I’ll be interested to know how much extra you send this year.

 

[Brad Sallows]

@dimsum, there you go. No need to support higher taxes for all to fulfill your personal altruism. I’ll be interested to know how much extra you send this year.

Usually when people say, "I'm willing to pay high/higher taxes", they mean "I'm willing for everyone to pay high/higher taxes". I doubt many gift cheques get written.

 

[Kirkhill]

More on being known by the company you keep.

Center for American Progress is tied to Canada 2020, the support group that got Trudeau elected.

Patrick Hubert Gaspard is an American former diplomat who serves as president of Center for American Progress

American politicians forget: disruption and disorder are the point of protests | Patrick Hubert Gaspard

I have trespassed in peaceful protest. I have shutdown government offices in civil disobedience. I have made the powerful uncomfortable. That’s the point

www.theguardian.com

Is the thrill of disruption really a desirable characteristic for our leaders?

Continuing....

John Ivison: Mark Carney keeps appearing like a ghost at Trudeau’s feast

Friends say he is not messianic about a career in politics, but he believes at some point it will be too late to save the Liberals

nationalpost.com

When he was asked by Conservative Senator Yonah Martin whether he supports the Trudeau government’s carbon tax, Carney said “it has served a purpose up until now. I think one can always look for better solutions, and as a country, we should always be open to better solutions.”

He did not elaborate on what a better solution might be but established the principle that you can’t “axe the tax” without having a back-up plan in place. The Conservatives have only said that they would subsidize clean energy and emissions-reduction technology, without committing to putting a price on emissions through taxation or regulation.

Carney told the Senate banking committee countries that don’t take measures to reduce embedded carbon will see their trade access closed down. He referenced a speech last month by White House adviser John Podesta that launched a new climate and trade task force. Podesta said the average ton of aluminum made in China produces 60-per-cent more emissions than the same product made in the U.S. We need a race to the top, not the bottom, he said, pledging the U.S. will deepen dialogue with the European Union, which is introducing a carbon-adjustment mechanism to tax goods coming from countries without emissions-reduction plans.

John Podesta

www.americanprogress.org

John Podesta is the founder of the Center for American Progress. He currently serves as the senior adviser to the president for clean energy innovation and implementation. Podesta served as counselor to President Barack Obama, where he was responsible for coordinating the administration’s climate policy and initiatives. In 2008, he served as co-chair of President Obama’s transition team. He was a member of the U.N. Secretary General’s High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda. Podesta previously served as White House chief of staff to President William J. Clinton. He chaired Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president in 2016.

Mark Carney - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Mark Joseph Carney OC (born March 16, 1965) is a Canadian economist and banker who was the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and the governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. He is chairman, and head of impact investing at Brookfield Asset Management since 2020, and was named chairman of Bloomberg Inc., parent company of Bloomberg L.P., in 2023. He was the chair of the Financial Stability Board from 2011 to 2018. Prior to his governorships, Carney worked at Goldman Sachs as well as the Department of Finance Canada. He also serves as the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance.[2]

Michael Bloomberg - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Speaking only hours after US President Donald Trump had posted on Twitter that he blamed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's policies creating fears of an economic recession—and then threatened China with more retaliatory tariffs—Carney urged central banks to work together to replace the US dollar as reserve currency. He cautioned against choosing another new hegemonic reserve currency like the Renminbi and suggested instead, a "new Synthetic Hegemonic Currency (SHC), such as Libra,[67][68][69] which could potentially be provided "through a network of central bank digital currencies," that would decrease the US dollar's "domineering influence" on trade worldwide.[68][69]

 

[Fishbone Jones]

'Speaking only hours after US President Donald Trump had posted on Twitter that he blamed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's policies creating fears of an economic recession—and then threatened China with more retaliatory tariffs—Carney urged central banks to work together to replace the US dollar as reserve currency. He cautioned against choosing another new hegemonic reserve currency like the Renminbi and suggested instead, a "new Synthetic Hegemonic Currency (SHC), such as Libra,[67][68][69] which could potentially be provided "through a network of central bank digital currencies," that would decrease the US dollar's "domineering influence" on trade worldwide.[68][69]'

If I've got this right, Carney is not the guy I want to see replace trudeau.

Carney wants to replace the USD as the Reserve Currency.
His suggestion is digital currency via Libra, now Diem.
Libra/Diem was a Facebook initiative.
Diem was sold to Silvergate, who has since written it down.
I'm not sure I'm comfortable with the hard currency being replaced with digital zeros and ones, in a Facebook type financial computer program of blockchains and digital currency.

Diem (digital currency) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

That's my reading of the Wiki and the last post by Kirkhill. I'm no financial wizard or profess to understand much of it. But none of it sounds good to me. Perhaps I have it wrong and will defer to more learned colleagues.

 

[Remius]

If I've got this right, Carney is not the guy I want to see replace trudeau.

Carney wants to replace the USD as the Reserve Currency.
His suggestion is digital currency via Libra, now Diem.
Libra/Diem was a Facebook initiative.
Diem was sold to Silvergate, who has since written it down.
I'm not sure I'm comfortable with the hard currency being replaced with digital zeros and ones, in a Facebook type financial computer program of blockchains and digital currency.

Diem (digital currency) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

That's my reading of the Wiki and the last post by Kirkhill. I'm no financial wizard or profess to understand much of it. But none of it sounds good to me. Perhaps I have it wrong and will defer to more learned colleagues.

Well PP proposed freedom from inflation with crypto and have Canada become a block chain hub so not sure the alternative is any better. But like you I don’t quite get the nuances of that risk or reward.


That being said, I doubt anyone will satisfy anyone that hates the LPC or Trudeau. Carney is very much a step up from JT in my mind. My preference would be someone like Anand.

But until any of that happens the road to the bottom will likely continue.

 

[Kirkhill]

Well PP proposed freedom from inflation with crypto and have Canada become a block chain hub so not sure the alternative is any better. But like you I don’t quite get the nuances of that risk or reward.


That being said, I doubt anyone will satisfy anyone that hates the LPC or Trudeau. Carney is very much a step up from JT in my mind. My preference would be someone like Anand.

But until any of that happens the road to the bottom will likely continue.

Carney, IMO, is a much more qualified individual than Trudeau (and probably Biden and Trump). Having said that, I don't like the company he keeps and the policies with which that company is associated.

And I don't hate Trudeau. Or Biden. Or Trump for that matter. I just want to see them all replaced. I've come to appreciate executive churn in my governments. It minimizes the damage any one individual can do. Churn needs to extend into the bureaucracy.