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World Resupply Issues

FormerHorseGuard

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If the US Of A , Germany, and every other large military power in NATO is having resupply issues for everything from 155 rounds, rockets, small arms bullets etc.
Germany is waiting for cotton liners from China to load for artillery shells, other countries will not release export permits for ammo purchased to released to a 3rd party Nation.
How is Canada going to resupply the CAF if the world is not able to resupply the super powers? Have to replace M777 and spare parts, small arms ammo, tact vests, helmets, winter kit, tents, sleeping bags etc?

Just wondering how?
 
St Patricks Day Rainbow GIF by TipsyElves.com


It's not even just ammo; we have some common parts with other allies for valves and other non-sexy things with a huge backorder, and have been straight up told the US takes priority (which is fair). Edit: That predates COVID and UKR, but that definitely has made it worse.

We're small potatoes with pretty small buying power and tend to buy things once and then run it until it breaks 30 years later, so pretty funny talking to GoC folks that think we'll somehow throw our weight around with major suppliers and get them to agree to insane terms and conditions.

A lot of them won't even supply directly to us because they can't be arsed to work our procurement system, so lot of resellers that specialize in filling GoC RFPs as a reseller.
 
Then there's this reality:


Supply-Chain Issues Slow Global Arms Sales​

China, Asia and Europe close gap on U.S. companies struggling with parts and labor shortages as war in Ukraine increases demand​


Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Shift to East and Gulf Coast Ports


Container-ship backlogs from New York to Houston are extending strains on troubled supply chains in the U.S. WSJ’s Paul Berger explains what’s contributing to the congestion and what impact it’s having on the economy. Photo illustration: Adele Morgan
By Doug Cameron

Dec. 6, 2022 9:00 am ET

Supply-chain snarls are threatening to break a seven-year run of rising global arms sales, even with increasing demand from the war raging in Ukraine and simmering Taiwan-related tensions.

Sales by the world’s 100 largest defense companies rose 1.9% last year to $592 billion, slowing from prepandemic levels and led by gains among suppliers in Europe and Asia, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank.

U.S. companies fill the first five spots in the top 10 ranking, with China taking another four, a sign of the latter’s crash military modernization as well as consolidation among its state-controlled suppliers. Sales at Norinco, China’s biggest defense company, rose 11% last year.


The slowdown in sales amid an increase in demand illustrates the paradoxical nature of the current arms market, and speaks to the larger challenges of an industrial base geared to peacetime production. While Ukraine’s allies have pumped billions of dollars of existing arms stocks into the country, worker and supply-chain challenges, as well as obsolete components, are hampering efforts to refill inventories.

Sales among North American defense companies fell 0.9% last year from a year earlier, according to SIPRI. Lockheed Martin Corp., the world’s biggest defense contractor by sales, doesn’t expect its annual revenues to rise until 2024 as it works through logistics and worker challenges.

“Increasing output takes time,” said Dr. Diego Lopes da Silva, a senior researcher at SIPRI. “If supply-chain disruptions continue, it may take several years for some of the main arms producers to meet the new demand created by the Ukraine war.”

Lockheed and second-ranked Raytheon Technologies Corp. jointly produce in-demand Javelin antitank missiles, but they expect it will take two years to double output that is now at around 400 a month.

Defense companies are seeking more certainty that increasing production now won’t leave them with excess capacity at a later date.
Jim Taiclet, Lockheed Martin’s chief executive, said at a recent industry conference that munitions production needs to rise by two standard deviations—effectively double—from peacetime levels.

Greg Hayes, chief executive at Raytheon, said that Ukraine has burned through five years of Javelin production since February and 13 years worth of Stinger antiaircraft missiles.

“The question is, how are we going to restock, resupply?” said Mr. Hayes last week at the Reagan National Defense Forum.

The ability of U.S. companies to meet rising demand extends beyond Ukraine. The U.S. is also facing a nearly $19 billion backlog in arms sales to Taiwan.

Production problems have been less of a challenge in Europe and Asia, which executives said reflected less-stressed labor markets, helping sales last year by companies in those regions rise by 4.2% and 5.8%, respectively.

Sales at Russian companies in the ranking were flat last year, but industry analysts expect them to drop in 2022 because of sanctions-induced export bans and shortages of components such as microelectronics. Russia meanwhile has been burning through so much military equipment to pursue its war in Ukraine that it has turned to foreign suppliers.

Available weapons inventory is expected to widen the gap between growth rates at U.S. companies and their foreign competitors, especially in Asia. South Korea has signed billions of dollars in deals with Poland and others this year. The Pentagon has also turned to South Korea for munitions as part of the continuing U.S. efforts to supply Ukraine.

 
It will be interesting to see if DND and the CAF try to procure replacement ammunition from international sources or if we expend funds to increase output at Valleyfield and Repentigny Qc with GD OTS Canada as well as modernize those two facilities.

The decision will be telling as to if we are taking a short term or long term view to the world situation.
 
Defense companies are seeking more certainty that increasing production now won’t leave them with excess capacity at a later date.
The above is the biggest issue. LocMart, Raytheon etc have the ability to vastly increase their production, but no one is going to do that unless there are guarantees that those lines will remain open and the personnel and expenses to add additional production and stock raw materials is not for naught.
 
The above is the biggest issue. LocMart, Raytheon etc have the ability to vastly increase their production, but no one is going to do that unless there are guarantees that those lines will remain open and the personnel and expenses to add additional production and stock raw materials is not for naught.

At a micro-level we have the same issue in my company.

We could hire 5 more people between now and the end of government's fiscal year, but then the big public sector work slump hits and we're left with the added overhead...
 
Canada should be looking at the sub-contracting work that requires large amounts of energy use and build up that capacity. Places like Quebec and BC have the capacity to provide that energy. Looking at the BAE video of making shells. The heating and forming of billets into shell casings looks like a good fit with our energy costs.
 
Canada should be looking at the sub-contracting work that requires large amounts of energy use and build up that capacity. Places like Quebec and BC have the capacity to provide that energy. Looking at the BAE video of making shells. The heating and forming of billets into shell casings looks like a good fit with our energy costs.
Most of the Canadian Steel/Alloy plants are yet in Ontario…
 
interesting find
not sure if it has been posted before, if so , my mistake if i missed it here
defence news has a story running about Canada's resupply of items donated to Ukraine.
M4 Carl G, replacements for the APCs donated. Ammo etc.
cannot post link as it is written by a reporter not fond of this site, I removed the link, did not realize it was his work
 
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Canada should be looking at the sub-contracting work that requires large amounts of energy use and build up that capacity. Places like Quebec and BC have the capacity to provide that energy. Looking at the BAE video of making shells. The heating and forming of billets into shell casings looks like a good fit with our energy costs.

It is to weep....

Missing the Boat: Natural gas exports​

A comparison of Canada vs U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports show a major missed opportunity.


In 2014, Canada and the United States were in similar boats: with little to no overseas exports of natural gas. But there was an opportunity—both countries have rich supplies of natural gas, and global demand for natural gas is increasing in places like Asia and Europe as these regions attempt to transition away from high carbon emitting sources of power generation like coal and diesel.

In Canada, producers recognized there was a window of opportunity and advanced 18 proposals for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants capable of exporting natural gas to overseas markets. Fast forward to 2022. After years of uncertainty over project approvals and pipelines, exactly zero new LNG plants have been built in Canada. In the same timeframe, the United States has built seven new LNG facilities, and in 2022 is projected to overtake Qatar as the world’s leading exporter of LNG. The U.S. has increased its market share to 22 percent of global demand, while generating billions in revenue and trade for America. It has plans to build five more plants in the next five years.

Canada with abundant supplies of natural gas and the ability to generate the lowest emissions LNG in the world should be a global leader in helping with the energy transition away from high sources of carbon. The benefits to Canadians in tax royalties and economic activity could be enormous. However with only one major LNG project under construction, Canada is truly in danger of missing the boat.

 
At one point we had 9 different projects under review on the West Coast alone. PNW LNG was going to be a 36 billion project on it's own.
 
Canada should be looking at the sub-contracting work that requires large amounts of energy use and build up that capacity. Places like Quebec and BC have the capacity to provide that energy. Looking at the BAE video of making shells. The heating and forming of billets into shell casings looks like a good fit with our energy costs.
Our energy costs are skyrocketing. Its one of the factors companies are leaving. Its a policy goal of the government to close those type of industries to hit the Climate Change targets.
 
Meanwhile in the ROW


And King Coal is making a comeback too! ;)

 
Is there any information on the current cost per day of this war vs the cost per day sustaining operations in the GWOT. Near peer warfare would be harder to sustain- I’m wondering if our systems are even able to deal with it. Like the way we approve operations and equipment etc- would it even allow us to be involved in a “war” 🤔

Maybe this is a n incredibly dumb question
 
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