Ukraine - Superthread

[Kirkhill]

Switzerland is following Germany's lead and has released its customers from their obligations

Germany can now supply 35mm ammunition for its Gepards. Spain can supply its Swiss anti-aircraft guns along with its German tanks. Denmark can supply its Swiss Piranhas (LAVs) along with its German Leos.

Explosive turnaround in arms exports: Switzerland is said to offer a hand for the delivery of ammunition and tanks to Ukraine​

The SP gave up its resistance over the weekend: the Security Policy Commission of the National Council wants Germany, Denmark and Spain to be allowed to transfer weapons from Switzerland to Ukraine.

Daniel Gerny, Erich Aschwanden01/24/2023, 5:15 p.m
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Germany has asked Switzerland to supply ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank to Ukraine.​

Thomas Imo/ photo library / imago
For weeks, pressure has been increasing on Switzerland to finally agree to the transfer of Swiss-made weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. All states must now support Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told SRF at the WEF in Davos and then clarified in the direction of Switzerland: "It's not about neutrality. It's about the right to self-defense."





Such statements and the images of the badly destroyed country are now causing a rethink: the Security Policy Commission of the National Council passed a motion on Tuesday that would allow other countries to re-export armaments from Switzerland in certain cases: namely in conflicts that the UN - Security Council or two-thirds of the UN General Assembly judged to be contrary to international law. In the case of the Ukraine war, the General Assembly has already decided accordingly.

The Federal Council must now examine whether Switzerland will include corresponding exception clauses in the War Material Act and thus be able to react more flexibly to requests from third countries. The Security Policy Committee of the National Council has adopted a motion by 14 to 11 votes. Since the Commission's initiative has broad support, the political knot in arms exports could be resolved relatively quickly. A parliamentary initiative with a similar thrust should even be declared urgent and come into force before the end of this year. This only relates to the Ukraine war and would be limited to the end of 2025.

Germany, Denmark and Spain upset​

This is intended to avoid what has repeatedly caused international trouble since the beginning of the war. Several countries have asked Switzerland to agree to the re-export of weapons and ammunition. Germany wants to supply Ukraine with ammunition for Cheetah anti-aircraft tanks, Denmark with Piranha tanks and Spain with Swiss-made anti-aircraft guns.

However, the War Material Act currently stipulates that countries that buy weapons or ammunition in Switzerland must sign a non-re-export declaration. These countries need Swiss approval if they want to deliver the goods to Ukraine. The Federal Council should now be able to revoke a non-re-export declaration. This was at the request of a foreign government in the case of attacks described by the UN as illegal under international law. In the past few weeks, the lack of understanding for the Swiss position and the pressure from the countries concerned have grown.

This turnaround in Swiss foreign policy was made possible by a change of opinion in the SP, which has already become apparent in recent days. At the weekend, SP co-president Cédric Wermuth told Radio SRF that in the light of the current situation, what is right in terms of neutrality policy must be assessed. The SP National Councilor Eric Nussbaumer also acknowledged a change of heart: "I hesitated, but now it's clear: the re-export of ammunition and other armaments must be approved for our neighbors on a case-by-case basis in Ukraine."

Ukraine: Schweiz soll Deutschland Waffen-Weitergabe erlauben

Über das Wochenende hat die SP ihren Widerstand aufgegeben: Die Sicherheitspolitische Kommission des Nationalrats will, dass Deutschland, Dänemark und Spanien Waffen aus der Schweiz an die Ukraine weitergeben dürfen.

www.nzz.ch

 

[Kat Stevens]

Switzerland is following Germany's lead and has released its customers from their obligations

Germany can now supply 35mm ammunition for its Gepards. Spain can supply its Swiss anti-aircraft guns along with its German tanks. Denmark can supply its Swiss Piranhas (LAVs) along with its German Leos.

Ukraine: Schweiz soll Deutschland Waffen-Weitergabe erlauben

Über das Wochenende hat die SP ihren Widerstand aufgegeben: Die Sicherheitspolitische Kommission des Nationalrats will, dass Deutschland, Dänemark und Spanien Waffen aus der Schweiz an die Ukraine weitergeben dürfen.

www.nzz.ch

Pretty telling when the most non-give-a-fuck country on the planet lets slip the leash.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Pretty telling when the most non-give-a-fuck country on the planet lets slip the leash.

You mean Canada?

 

[KevinB]

You mean Canada?

That would have then been "Country no One Gives a Fuck About..."

 

[brihard]

Now we're talking....

U.S. closer to approving ‘significant number’ of Abrams tanks to Ukraine​

The decision, which could be announced this week, comes as Germany authorizes the transfer of Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian military.

The Biden administration is leaning toward sending “a significant number” of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two U.S. officials said, and an announcement could come as early as this week.
The development comes amid a public standoff with German officials, who are under pressure to send their own Leopard tanks and allow other European countries that operate the German-made vehicles to do so as well.

On Tuesday, shortly after news broke of the possible U.S. move, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that German Leopards were heading to Ukraine. Last week, Scholz told U.S. lawmakers that Berlin would approve the transfer only if the U.S. donated its own tanks first.

The transfer of U.S. and German tanks would mark a major development in the West’s effort to arm Ukraine. Top Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have spent weeks pleading for tanks as Kyiv prepares for fresh Russian offensives in the country’s east.

U.S. closer to approving ‘significant number’ of Abrams tanks to Ukraine

The decision, which could be announced this week, comes as Germany authorizes the transfer of Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian military.

www.politico.com

I wonder what the US considers a ‘significant number’? Should be interesting. I’m very curious to see if it’ll come with a side of more Brads.

A brigade + of modern western heavy armour, if they can feed and fuel it, will be a potent fist with which to either punch someone in the face, or alternatively to move around the board to telegraph and distract from a kidney shot somewhere else.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I wonder what the US considers a ‘significant number’? Should be interesting. I’m very curious to see if it’ll come with a side of more Brads.

A brigade + of modern western heavy armour, if they can feed and fuel it, will be a potent fist with which to either punch someone in the face, or alternatively to move around the board to telegraph and distract from a kidney shot somewhere else.

If the US sends Abrams, Trudeau will send some Leo's, he will not want to be on the wrong side of this -

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1617972019563483136

 

[Spencer100]

If the US sends Abrams, Trudeau will send some Leo's, he will not want to be on the wrong side of this -

If Canada had just sent over a dozen Leo to start with the whole debate would have been over. Germany would had to roll over because its Canada. There is zero they could do about it and they could not give any real serious repercussions to Canada. Like we are not going to sell you replacement tanks or weapons? Really you're not? Or we not going to let you buy Mercedes anymore? Or if you do want to sell us oil we are just not going to buy it.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If Canada had just sent over a dozen Leo to start with the whole debate would have been over. Germany would had to roll over because its Canada. There is zero they could do about it and they could not give any real serious repercussions to Canada. Like we are not going to sell you replacement tanks or weapons? Really you're not? Or we not going to let you buy Mercedes anymore? Or if you do want to sell us oil we are just not going to buy it.

I pointed this out earlier - Trudeau was not going to break with Germany, there are currently our 'last friend' left in NATO. The Brits and US don't want to deal with us, the French couldn't care less about us since we never buy anything from them, this left the Germans as the only 'respectively large' player left. Once Germany signs off on sending the Leo's and the US sign's off on the Abrams, look for 'tail end Charlie' to bring up the rear and announce that 4 Leo's are being sent over.

 

[Spencer100]

I pointed this out earlier - Trudeau was not going to break with Germany, there are currently our 'last friend' left in NATO. The Brits and US don't want to deal with us, the French couldn't care less about us since we never buy anything from them, this left the Germans as the only 'respectively large' player left. Once Germany signs off on sending the Leo's and the US sign's off on the Abrams, look for 'tail end Charlie' to bring up the rear and announce that 4 Leo's are being sent over.

Agree. I was just pointing Canada was the one country that could broken the log jam two weeks ago. Because Germany needs Canada more that Canada needs Germany by orders of magnitude.

But your first point about Germany being Canada's last friend is true in that both are in lock step with what the current governments are really wanting to do. This is a bothersome sideshow to the agenda.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Agree. I was just pointing Canada was the one country that could broken the log jam two weeks ago. Because Germany needs Canada more that Canada needs Germany by orders of magnitude.

But your first point about Germany being Canada's last friend is true in that both are in lock step with what the current governments are really wanting to do. This is a bothersome sideshow to the agenda.

Also rest assured that if 'Roshel' was not owned by a Ukrainian-Canadian (via Israel) Trudeau certainly would NOT have sent these AV's over. It's totally by luck that this is the case. I mean the CEO is a board member of the Canada-Ukraine Chamber of Commerce for the last 6yrs, lol.

 

[TacticalTea]

Some more tea leaves to read from SecGen NATO:

More on the Leopards via MSM

Germany Says Allies Can Start Training Ukrainians on Tanks

Germany's defense minister said Tuesday allies could start training Ukrainian forces to use Leopard tanks.

www.thedefensepost.com

Ukraine updates: Poland asks German permission to send tanks – DW – 01/24/2023

Poland has sent a formal request for Berlin to allow the transfer of German-made Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Unconfirmed reports say Germany will grant permission for the transfer. Follow DW for more.

www.dw.com

Poland asks Berlin to OK Ukraine tanks; Kyiv targets graft

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Poland has officially requested permission from Germany to transfer its Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine where they can help fight Russia's invasion, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said Tuesday. German officials confirmed to the dpa news agency they had received...

ca.news.yahoo.com

Now we're talking....

U.S. closer to approving ‘significant number’ of Abrams tanks to Ukraine​

The decision, which could be announced this week, comes as Germany authorizes the transfer of Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian military.

The Biden administration is leaning toward sending “a significant number” of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two U.S. officials said, and an announcement could come as early as this week.
The development comes amid a public standoff with German officials, who are under pressure to send their own Leopard tanks and allow other European countries that operate the German-made vehicles to do so as well.

On Tuesday, shortly after news broke of the possible U.S. move, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that German Leopards were heading to Ukraine. Last week, Scholz told U.S. lawmakers that Berlin would approve the transfer only if the U.S. donated its own tanks first.

The transfer of U.S. and German tanks would mark a major development in the West’s effort to arm Ukraine. Top Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have spent weeks pleading for tanks as Kyiv prepares for fresh Russian offensives in the country’s east.

U.S. closer to approving ‘significant number’ of Abrams tanks to Ukraine

The decision, which could be announced this week, comes as Germany authorizes the transfer of Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian military.

www.politico.com

Switzerland is following Germany's lead and has released its customers from their obligations

Germany can now supply 35mm ammunition for its Gepards. Spain can supply its Swiss anti-aircraft guns along with its German tanks. Denmark can supply its Swiss Piranhas (LAVs) along with its German Leos.

Ukraine: Schweiz soll Deutschland Waffen-Weitergabe erlauben

Über das Wochenende hat die SP ihren Widerstand aufgegeben: Die Sicherheitspolitische Kommission des Nationalrats will, dass Deutschland, Dänemark und Spanien Waffen aus der Schweiz an die Ukraine weitergeben dürfen.

www.nzz.ch

Holy sh*t, today is a good day.

 

[Spencer100]

Germany set to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Der Spiegel reports

here you go

 

[MilEME09]

Pretty telling when the most non-give-a-fuck country on the planet lets slip the leash.

When the Swiss stop being neutral you gotta stop, and ask "am I being an a** hole?"

 

[Kirkhill]

Put me in the camp that thinks the world has already changed - permanently

I just don't know what that world looks like in 2 to 10 years.

Putin thinks the West will self-immolate – and he may be right​

While Europe dithers, Russia’s spring campaign could yet transform the dynamics in Ukraine
SHERELLE JACOBS23 January 2023 • 9:00pm

Russia’s leader has not been defeated yet – indeed he may have broken the Western liberal order already
When it comes to the Ukraine war, two heresies demand to be said. The first is that Putin may yet prevail in smashing the liberal order. The second is that he may have actually triumphed in this already. Of course, we in the West are not ready to admit such sacrilege. The reality which we inhabit is honourably black and white. Moved by the grit of the Ukrainians, we assume a just victory must surely be around the corner.
But the fact is that Ukraine is not on course for outright victory. Quite the contrary, as it stands it cannot eliminate Russian forces and, in fact, is increasingly on the back foot. Zelensky’s reconquest of the country is faltering. With the West dithering on supplying tanks, he does not have sufficient weapons to launch a preemptive strike before Putin escalates in spring.
For all the weakness of Putin’s military, we are heading for, at best, a catastrophic stalemate, and at worst, a decisive Russian breakthrough. Although Ukraine has the numbers and resolve to uphold its sovereignty, its Russian counterparts have superior stockpiles of weapons and ammunition. Moreover, the Kremlin is reportedly set to mobilise half a million new conscripts as it seeks to escalate the war from drones and artillery to planes and tanks – a massive shift.
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This makes the West’s current strategy increasingly untenable. Until now, it has lent Ukraine just enough help to drag out the war in an effort to grind down the Russian military, while stopping short of the kind of intervention that might decisively shift the outcome. But as Russia changes the conflict’s dynamics, Ukraine, deprived of the necessary capabilities, could quickly go from having the upper hand to a cataclysmic rout. Nor does the West’s bid to isolate and annihilate the Russian economy appear to have entirely worked: Russia has a record trade surplus as it exports natural gas at higher prices. Its financial system remains intact and its manufacturing sector is weathering sanctions.
Put simply, this has the ingredients of a perma-war. Logistically, it could go on for years. Psychologically, both sides are determined. The Ukrainians are fighting for their sovereignty and freedom. Russia, meanwhile, views its Ukrainian cousins as fallen fornicators, sucked into the West’s “empire of lies”. Russia’s chattering classes call for their extermination with a mixture of revulsion and paternalistic guilt.
Still, the West is not mentally prepared for anything other than a Ukraine victory. We don’t want to contemplate the unsettling fact, for example, that even if the final outcome of the war is murky, the myth of American hegemony will be shattered. With a perma-war in the former Soviet Union, perhaps spreading next to the Balkans, the world fragments into warring spheres of influence. With Russia committed long-term to its medieval rebirth through total mobilisation, a new era of civilisation states – not just in Russia, but also China, India and perhaps even Shia Iran – could be upon us. Not to mention the threat of a Third World War. And with a mercurial conflict on its borders, Europe would be on a permanent conflict footing.
Or perhaps things are even more grave than that and Putin has already secured his nefarious place in history. He may have ensured that Russia will never be part of the liberal order. The potential for Russia to become Europe and America’s ultimate nemesis is all there in Dostoevsky, of course – a Russian soul brooding that Reason has never had the power to define good and evil and that Western civilisation is essentially dead. As Ivan tells his mother in The Brothers Karamazov: “I want to travel to Europe... I know well enough I shall be going to a graveyard.”
But after the Cold War, there was renewed optimism that Russia might trade such dark romanticism for stability and wealth. Such hope has been dashed by Putin, who has tipped his country into a philosophical abyss which it may never pull itself out of.
And he may yet have permanently shaped the West’s trajectory. His declaration of war has brought a world economy built on cheap energy and just-in-time supply chains to the brink of disintegration. Free trade, with its alleged semi-mystical powers to spread liberal values and peace, has been exposed as a false god. Nowhere are the ramifications felt more keenly than in Germany, which has adopted this benign mercantilist vision of the world most eagerly among Western nations. Right now, the country is in a state of remarkable transformation. Far from supporting Chancellor Olaf Scholz in his reluctance to poke the Russian bear over Leopard 2s, the Berlin commentariat ask: “Does anyone understand him?”, declaring their leader “lost” and his strategy a “disaster”. Yet elsewhere, one of the world’s most famous living intellectuals and champion of European integration, Jürgen Habermas, was recently pilloried when he expressed surprise at the “volte-face” of his countrymen and criticised the “increasingly shrill moral indictments of German restraint”.
If Westerners understand viscerally what has happened – that the old liberal order is hanging by a thread and another template, rooted more in strategic resilience, military prowess and staunch commitment to Western values, must take its place – the question remains about whether we are willing to make the sacrifices necessary to truly achieve this.
Such a pivot will cost money at a time when the West is haemorrhaging cash for its health services. And yet the British are loath to even countenance trimming other parts of the welfare state. Meanwhile, the French will not contemplate a world with a retirement age beyond 62. Nor are we willing to ramp up our energy self-sufficiency with nuclear or fracking – perhaps because, with net-zero policies, we are increasingly devoted not to making sacrifices for Western civilisation, but sacrificing Western civilisation for a more primitive greater good.
Here we see a disturbing difference between the West and its enemy. Russia, despite its economic and demographic decay, views itself as belonging to a culture yet to fulfil its destiny. The West is increasingly resigned to its own decline and weary of its own values – not least freedom. This is why Russia’s ability to upend the world should not be taken for granted; and why, as it stands, the West is far from defeating Putin and all he stands for.

Putin thinks the West will self-immolate – and he may be right

While Europe dithers, Russia’s spring campaign could yet transform the dynamics in Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Kat Stevens]

Put me in the camp that thinks the world has already changed - permanently

I just don't know what that world looks like in 2 to 10 years.

Putin thinks the West will self-immolate – and he may be right

While Europe dithers, Russia’s spring campaign could yet transform the dynamics in Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

Possibly, but he will have fallen out a window onto an ice pick way before that happens.

 

[Kirkhill]

Possibly, but he will have fallen out a window onto an ice pick way before that happens.

Indeed. But his legacy as an Influencer will outlast him - for good or ill.

 

[Good2Golf]

Switzerland is following Germany's lead and has released its customers from their obligations

 

[Kirkhill]

View attachment 76039

So Germany is second last then .... Switerland is still following.

 

[Good2Golf]

So Germany is second last then .... Switerland is still following.

I suppose in a loose interpretation of an integer number line…