Ukraine - Superthread

[brihard]

Let the Russians walk away. But make Putin’s death or surrender to custody a precondition for the restoration of anything close to normal economic relations.

 

[HiTechComms]

If they wanted a political solution they wouldn't have invaded. Now they are paying in blood and Kyiv will get Crimea back at this rate at the peace talks.

From my reading this is what I have learned. Its an understanding of the situation more so then agreement/disagreement. IT IS WHAT IT IS. Hindsight is 2020. I have no ability to change what's happening.

Except Ukraine would have never agreed to that. Not defending just stating some knowns. Crimea and Donbas regions both have predominantly Russian ethnic population they do not support Ukraine current government (Support for the current president in the east is like 17%). Background context. I think its a little arrogant to presume that everyone assumes everyone in Ukraine is Ukrainian ethnicity, they are not. They are very much a diverse country of ethnicities.

I know both are a little different at this point. After the Crimea response was non existent, and the over throw of the previous government and policies forced Donbas to say we want some autonomy and stop with your anti Russian policies such as forbidding Russian language (That's like saying in Quebec you cannot use French). Ukraine government said no, long story short they decided they wanted out of Ukraine. Also they didn't like some of the dare I say it Ukrainian Neo-Nazi (Hard to believe it but it is true there have been ties to this since ww2-google it.) individuals in the government. Ukraine has no legal framework for session through peaceful measures. Civil war break outs, 8 years later here we are. (Could have been averted if regional autonomy was given, its not unheard of I mean Canada gave a lot of autonomy to Quebec)

I agree with everyone that if people chose their own destiny they should be able to if the consensus is reached. There just wasn't a legal framework to make any of this work. It just kept spiraling down a rabbit hole. In Canada we are very lucky we can have a referendum and peacefully divorce possibility (1995 Quebec thing) Although previously the separatists tried the violent route, it didn't have the support nor did it go well, military was used (yeah yeah stupidity imo of FLQ) In fact few countries on this planet would have a peaceful divorce.

I love how everyone claims Blood of Ukrainians, what about the Blood of those in Donbas? Blood is Blood. Unless the people of Donbas are not to be afforded their own destiny?

Russia was also informally promised during USSR collapse NATO wouldn't go beyond a certain geographic region, but nope NATO kept expanding. Russians think that NATO would put nukes in Ukraine. Access to the Black sea as well (Crimea) Large Russian Naval base was in Ukraine. This also scares the crap out of them. I mean it scared the crap out of the Americans during the Cuban missile crisis.
Russians haven't been very forceful on this issue for a long time but I believe Russia drew this line in 2004 as a red line not to be crossed, Georgia wanting to be in NATO. Who here even remembers Georgia fiasco?

Its a very nuanced and complicated situation. I don't know every detail.

I DO NOT AGREE WITH WHAT RUSSIA IS DOING, But I understand why they are doing it. Through Russia eyes this is an existential threat to national security. They are forcing Ukrainian to the negotiation table because if Ukraine agrees through Political means that they have no jurisdiction over Crimea or Donbas the rest of the world will be forced to recognize it. As for the NATO question and EU question I don't know. NATO I think is out of the question as for the EU, I don't think Ukraine would even qualify to the EU due to corruption and poverty.

Yes it sucks people are dying, but I don't think its worth going to WW3 over do you? Its a Regional conflict the actors are Russians and Ukrainians. Lets keep it at that.

Its kind of scary how everyone wants to just go to war and call on vengeance and revenge calling on killing of leaders because they don't like them. I say do it through the ballot box. Most of the people don't understand nor have any skin in the game over this conflict, but people in Ukraine and Russia will pay with lives.
Lastly I think there is a general misconception that Putin is a dictator, there is a Parliament(Duma), Federation Council. All these measures were voted on by the representatives and powers given to Putin.
If you are that gung ho go be a Merc and fight in Ukraine they have foreign fighters.

 

[HiTechComms]

"March home, and beg forgiveness from every Ukrainian citizen you meet on the way"

I would bet that Donbas region would welcome Russia as liberators.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

If they wanted a political solution they wouldn't have invaded. Now they are paying in blood and Kyiv will get Crimea back at this rate at the peace talks.

The only way Crimea becomes Ukrainian again is if Russia collapses as a State and they take it by force.

 

[NotSoWiseKingSolomon]

What I am surprised at is how much Russians have really avoided at destroying Ukraine.

1. They have avoided destroying critical infrastructure: Telecoms, Water, Electricity.
2. Civilian casualties.

I mean the Americans targeted those specifically when they went into the middle east.

Not commenting on the last sentence.
From a Russia perspective, it makes sense to just initially just target military and avoid civilians. Each civilian you kill is another 3 insurgents.
They see themselves as one people (and they more or less were at least more east under the USSR and during KIEV-RUS eras).
The longer it goes on, the more and more casual civilians will be brought into this.

From my reading this is what I have learned. Its an understanding of the situation more so then agreement/disagreement. IT IS WHAT IT IS. Hindsight is 2020. I have no ability to change what's happening.

Except Ukraine would have never agreed to that. Not defending just stating some knowns. Crimea and Donbas regions both have predominantly Russian ethnic population they do not support Ukraine current government (Support for the current president in the east is like 17%). Background context. I think its a little arrogant to presume that everyone assumes everyone in Ukraine is Ukrainian ethnicity, they are not. They are very much a diverse country of ethnicities.

I know both are a little different at this point. After the Crimea response was non existent, and the over throw of the previous government and policies forced Donbas to say we want some autonomy and stop with your anti Russian policies such as forbidding Russian language (That's like saying in Quebec you cannot use French). Ukraine government said no, long story short they decided they wanted out of Ukraine. Also they didn't like some of the dare I say it Ukrainian Neo-Nazi (Hard to believe it but it is true there have been ties to this since ww2-google it.) individuals in the government. Ukraine has no legal framework for session through peaceful measures. Civil war break outs, 8 years later here we are. (Could have been averted if regional autonomy was given, its not unheard of I mean Canada gave a lot of autonomy to Quebec)

I agree with everyone that if people chose their own destiny they should be able to if the consensus is reached. There just wasn't a legal framework to make any of this work. It just kept spiraling down a rabbit hole. In Canada we are very lucky we can have a referendum and peacefully divorce possibility (1995 Quebec thing) Although previously the separatists tried the violent route, it didn't have the support nor did it go well, military was used (yeah yeah stupidity imo of FLQ) In fact few countries on this planet would have a peaceful divorce.

I love how everyone claims Blood of Ukrainians, what about the Blood of those in Donbas? Blood is Blood. Unless the people of Donbas are not to be afforded their own destiny?

Russia was also informally promised during USSR collapse NATO wouldn't go beyond a certain geographic region, but nope NATO kept expanding. Russians think that NATO would put nukes in Ukraine. Access to the Black sea as well (Crimea) Large Russian Naval base was in Ukraine. This also scares the crap out of them. I mean it scared the crap out of the Americans during the Cuban missile crisis.
Russians haven't been very forceful on this issue for a long time but I believe Russia drew this line in 2004 as a red line not to be crossed, Georgia wanting to be in NATO. Who here even remembers Georgia fiasco?

Its a very nuanced and complicated situation. I don't know every detail.

I DO NOT AGREE WITH WHAT RUSSIA IS DOING, But I understand why they are doing it. Through Russia eyes this is an existential threat to national security. They are forcing Ukrainian to the negotiation table because if Ukraine agrees through Political means that they have no jurisdiction over Crimea or Donbas the rest of the world will be forced to recognize it. As for the NATO question and EU question I don't know. NATO I think is out of the question as for the EU, I don't think Ukraine would even qualify to the EU due to corruption and poverty.

Yes it sucks people are dying, but I don't think its worth going to WW3 over do you? Its a Regional conflict the actors are Russians and Ukrainians. Lets keep it at that.

Its kind of scary how everyone wants to just go to war and call on vengeance and revenge calling on killing of leaders because they don't like them. I say do it through the ballot box. Most of the people don't understand nor have any skin in the game over this conflict, but people in Ukraine and Russia will pay with lives.
Lastly I think there is a general misconception that Putin is a dictator, there is a Parliament(Duma), Federation Council. All these measures were voted on by the representatives and powers given to Putin.
If you are that gung ho go be a Merc and fight in Ukraine they have foreign fighters.

Good recap. You must understand your enemy to beat your enemy. It's not sympathizing or trolling as some make you out to be, sit isn't black and white. Call it playing the Devil's advocate.
Russia is being "softer on civilians" , he sees Russia and Eastern Ukrainians as one people (USSR and KIEV RUS eras) but more importantly, to carpet bomb civilians will lead to a lot more insurgent.

I too understand Putin and how he set all this up, not going as well as he hope but alas here we are. Putin spent a lot of time getting rid of people that did not agree with him, and it left him in an echo chamber where they thought they would be done the war already, let us not fall into that trap here and foster discussion.
A question to be raised is not whether is Russia right or wrong, or do you support Ukraine. The question is, is Ukraine worth the possibility of WW3? And not even a personal opinion, will NATO risk WW3 over this?

 

[Prairie canuck]

Not commenting on the last sentence.
From a Russia perspective, it makes sense to just initially just target military and avoid civilians. Each civilian you kill is another 3 insurgents.
They see themselves as one people (and they more or less were at least more east under the USSR and during KIEV-RUS eras).
The longer it goes on, the more and more casual civilians will be brought into this.

Good recap. You must understand your enemy to beat your enemy. It's not sympathizing or trolling as some make you out to be, sit isn't black and white. Call it playing the Devil's advocate.
Russia is being "softer on civilians" , he sees Russia and Eastern Ukrainians as one people (USSR and KIEV RUS eras) but more importantly, to carpet bomb civilians will lead to a lot more insurgent.

I too understand Putin and how he set all this up, not going as well as he hope but alas here we are. Putin spent a lot of time getting rid of people that did not agree with him, and it left him in an echo chamber where they thought they would be done the war already, let us not fall into that trap here and foster discussion.
A question to be raised is not whether is Russia right or wrong, or do you support Ukraine. The question is, is Ukraine worth the possibility of WW3? And not even a personal opinion, will NATO risk WW3 over this?

FFS there's 2 of them now. Troll factory minions.

 

[Altair]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498060310959243269

Putin still has some friends.

Of course the best of the best of murders row

 

[The Bread Guy]

Daring move - UKR Pres says "if we arrested you for fighting for the other side, and have combat experience, you'll be able to redeem yourself @ the front" (text of this morning's statement also attached in case link doesn't work) ....

... a decision was made - not easy from a moral point of view, but useful from the point of view of our protection. Under martial law, participants in hostilities - Ukrainians with real combat experience - will be released from custody and will be able to compensate for their guilt in the hottest spots of war. All sanctions are lifted from some people who took part in the anti-terrorist operation. The key now is defense ...

 

[The Bread Guy]

I would bet that Donbas region would welcome Russia as liberators.

Some - maaaaaaybe. Most? We'll see ...

 

[Remius]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498191541675958273

Lates from the UK MOD

 

[McG]

Do the Oligarchs support Putin because of political ideology, or because of potential profit?

At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Let's keep it civil in here folks.

Bruce

 

[The Bread Guy]

Opinion piece in UKR media

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/canadian-aid-too-little-too-late.html

Text also attached in case link doesn't work

 

[KevinB]

At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.

At this point, they have to be thinking about the best way to disappear Putin. I suspect Vlad himself is wondering what his internal capital is at this point. He’s calling in ever favor owed, and some that owe are now telling him to Pound Sand.

Everyone can see the hit Russian forces are taking.

—
UNGA vote today will be interesting and have long term ripples for the future of the world. That will be a clear marker of exactly what Capital Russia has left.

Do I think much of the UN, no, but most of the world has been watching and seen NATO weapons used very effectively by a extremely determined Ukrainian population.

They have also seen Russia act like a drunken teenage bully, and long term Neutral countries take a stand against it.

 

[The Bread Guy]

At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.

But even the harshest mob bosses don't tend to remain invulnerable forever. Wonder where the breaking point'll be?

 

[KevinB]

But even the harshest mob bosses don't tend to remain invulnerable forever. Wonder where the breaking point'll be?

How far can the Rubble fall before Putin hits the ground...

More importantly what will he do (or be allowed to do) before that.

 

[suffolkowner]

There are not that many Russians in Ukraine anymore most were in Crimea and the Donbas. A great many Ukrainians speak Russian that does not make them Russian. This has been asked and answered many time internally within Ukraine

Russia has a broken system where to deny the regime is death so problems are papered over and buried instead of brought up and dealt with they are much closer to the Afghanistan army than the US. Including paper battalions. The lack of missile production is because they can't do it just like they haven't been able to manufacture Armata tanks and just like they haven't been able to produce new jet fighter not new new like but just replacement SU-30

I fear and hope for Ukraine they are paying a big price to wound maybe even cripple the Russian bear

 

[Good2Golf]

At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.

He doesn’t hold all the levers. He has majority influence over the KGB faction, but the oligarchs are significant influencers of the mafia side of things, and that’s not to be underestimated. Putin must still balance his powers and those of his supporters.

 

[McG]

At this point, they have to be thinking about the best way to disappear Putin. I suspect Vlad himself is wondering what his internal capital is at this point. He’s calling in ever favor owed, and some that owe are now telling him to Pound Sand.

But even the harshest mob bosses don't tend to remain invulnerable forever. Wonder where the breaking point'll be?

One hopes we are getting there.

 

[ueo]

Kind of.

I will put my hand up and say i never expected Ukraine to be doing this well, and I keep looking for a feint from the Russian side.

Now I'm realizing that Russia doesn't know how to fight a war versus a highly motivated and well supplied enemy force, especially one using urban centers as hardpoints.

Couple this with the Russian political and military class taking increasing heat at home, and toss in the possibility they actually lose, and the likely downfall of Putin as a result, I am afraid they break out the strategic bombers and fuel air bombs and completely flatten centers of resistance.

I'm not scared of nukes, because thats the one thing that will draw in NATO. But every weapon just below nukes I fear will be dusted off.

Into the "every weapon" spectrum falls chem and bio. Yes I realize these are proscribed but that hasn't been much of a deterrant to various tinpot dickheads. So are we ready to defend against either a well or not so well targetted attack or just continue to have our collective heads up our arses?