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I can't wait for the Russian explanation of this one....
Ukraine - Superthread
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Easy, someone was trying to check on their summer beach villa in Varna and the drone ran out of gas on the return trip.
Russian tourists march on Bulgaria – DW – 08/28/2017
Russia's summer vacationers are setting their sights on a tiny Bulgarian town along the Black Sea. Many local residents welcome the visitors and the rubles they bring. Others are more skeptical.
www.dw.com
FormerHorseGuard
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the drone pilot was offering to defect?
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Not sure I was clear. I meant Ukraine has only claimed about 270k Russians killed, 100k less than those compensation figures suggest. If you had told me they were overreporting by that same amount I would have thought it was totally plausible.
I'm not sure Ukraine gets much out of low balling those numbers. Maybe the Russians are misreporting pows or other mia as kia, especially if someone can steal the payments. But it also suggests a lot of Russian troops are expiring where Ukrainians can't tally them, meaning accidents, exposure, darwin awards, and shockingly bad medical care and overall health standards. Isn't 1.5 wounded per killed ratio somewhat low? And as you said a lot of other casualties in other services may not even be included yet.
I don't know how Ukraine is faring but absent any large encirclements I'm assuming their losses start at at least half the Russian numbers. Brutal, but they're fighting for national survival, which is a motivation Russia doesn't really have, propaganda notwithstanding.
Maxman1
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I’ve seen repeated claims today that Ukraine killed another patrol ship from the Black Sea Fleet. Anyone got a feel for how legit this is?
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I read that it was one of the ships that OSINT was having a hard time finding
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Opening gambits in the South on Feb 24, 202220,000 to 1,500.
General reveals details of the organization of defense of the South at the beginning of the invasion
Major General Andrii Sokolov, who at the beginning of the Russian invasion was in charge of the Pivden Grouping of Troops, revealed the details of the organization of defense in the area
mil.in.ua
FJAG
Army.ca Fixture
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Good video
Much better gun drill and gun platform in general then many others we've seen videos of. Gun is operating with standard sights and not digital gun management.
I find it interesting that these guns seem to not be as mobile as one would expect if there was good counter battery from the Russian side. The age old question of which makes guns more vulnerable - staying put or being spotted moving. I'm hoping to see some good data at some point in the future. While they seem to be staying put, I don't see the gun itself dug in.
Five days converting a trained gunner to the M777 is quite doable. We basically did that in 2005 for TF Orion in mid winter in Shilo. They'd just been flat-bedded in from Yuma Proving grounds after proof firing and immediately after were on an Antonov from Winnipeg to Afghanistan. We can do stuff when we have to.
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Depending on location in theater at this point in time, there may be no credible Russian CB threat to them at all.Good video
Much better gun drill and gun platform in general then many others we've seen videos of. Gun is operating with standard sights and not digital gun management.
I find it interesting that these guns seem to not be as mobile as one would expect if there was good counter battery from the Russian side. The age old question of which makes guns more vulnerable - staying put or being spotted moving. I'm hoping to see some good data at some point in the future. While they seem to be staying put, I don't see the gun itself dug in.
Five days converting a trained gunner to the M777 is quite doable. We basically did that in 2005 for TF Orion in mid winter in Shilo. They'd just been flat-bedded in from Yuma Proving grounds after proof firing and immediately after were on an Antonov from Winnipeg to Afghanistan. We can do stuff when we have to.
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Neat little Ukrainian UCGV
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Norwegians sending M548’s
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Seeing as the mud is coming, this is going to give the Ukranians an efficient means of moving logistics around the battle space without getting bogged down.
Good move by Norway.
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I've been watching/reviewing this map daily for a while now and what I've noticed for the last 4-6 days is that the amount of Ukrainian shelling of the area west of Melitopol to the coastline south of Kherson has dramatically increased and the amount of shelling east/north of Melitopol to Mariupol and north of it has fallen off significantly.
1) Is the shelling west of Melitopol because the Ukrainians are trying to suppress Russian reserves from moving to the east to counter the Ukrainian moves around Robotyne
2) Are the Ukrainians getting ready to attempt an assault in force of the left bank of Kherson area? Do you remember the notice to evocate to all families along the Kherson front that came out late last week?
3) Are there simply not enough targets for the Ukrainians to target east/north of Melitopol and west of Mariupol? Is Russian UAV/drone coverage so high in this area that the Ukrainians aren't willing to risk exposing their arty to counter-fire?
4) Also, note the amount of incoming Russian fire in the Kherson area vs the area north of Melitopol and Mariupol on the Ukrainian side
deepstatemap.live
1) Is the shelling west of Melitopol because the Ukrainians are trying to suppress Russian reserves from moving to the east to counter the Ukrainian moves around Robotyne
2) Are the Ukrainians getting ready to attempt an assault in force of the left bank of Kherson area? Do you remember the notice to evocate to all families along the Kherson front that came out late last week?
3) Are there simply not enough targets for the Ukrainians to target east/north of Melitopol and west of Mariupol? Is Russian UAV/drone coverage so high in this area that the Ukrainians aren't willing to risk exposing their arty to counter-fire?
4) Also, note the amount of incoming Russian fire in the Kherson area vs the area north of Melitopol and Mariupol on the Ukrainian side
DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine
News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map
deepstatemap.live
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Hard to answer all of those from available OS releases.I've been watching/reviewing this map daily for a while now and what I've noticed for the last 4-6 days is that the amount of Ukrainian shelling of the area west of Melitopol to the coastline south of Kherson has dramatically increased and the amount of shelling east/north of Melitopol to Mariupol and north of it has fallen off significantly.
1) Is the shelling west of Melitopol because the Ukrainians are trying to suppress Russian reserves from moving to the east to counter the Ukrainian moves around Robotyne
2) Are the Ukrainians getting ready to attempt an assault in force of the left bank of Kherson area? Do you remember the notice to evocate to all families along the Kherson front that came out late last week?
3) Are there simply not enough targets for the Ukrainians to target east/north of Melitopol and west of Mariupol? Is Russian UAV/drone coverage so high in this area that the Ukrainians aren't willing to risk exposing their arty to counter-fire?
4) Also, note the amount of incoming Russian fire in the Kherson area vs the area north of Melitopol and Mariupol on the Ukrainian side
DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine
News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map
1) the Russians have no real reserves at this point. All units are committed to actions at this point. There are enough OS reports of Russia moving units from one engagement area to another that it’s clear that the reserve pool is dry.
2) Ukrainians have 5-6 Bde in Kherson, plus 1k of Uk trained Marines who’ve spent 6 months training with the RM and Uk SOF - I would expect the AFU to conduct a lot of raids and harassment in that OA before any larger push. There has been a lot of talk of Tomcar type buggies, and other fast attack vehicles in that AO so a Kharkiv type offensive is at least theoretically possible. I think there needs to be more forces across the river before UKR commits to building bridges to bring heavy stuff across, and I don’t think they can use that effectively until the freeze anyway.
3) There are a lot of range band analysis on Twitter, as well as attrition rates, as well as RuAF admissions that I think it’s safe to say that the CB threat is very low and it’s a lack of targets combined with priority of targets elsewhere. The AFU has a large advantage in Arty there.
4) RuAF Arty efforts in Kherson seem to be heavily focused on civilian targets, to the detriment of military effects. This seems to be mirrored in several other locations as well.
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Someone didn't watch The Battle of Britain enough times growing up...
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Looks like VAC has expanded with new clients.
Russian Veterans Return From Ukraine And Find Themselves Ignored And Forgotten
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