Theater & Continental Balistic Missile Defence . . . and Canada

[tomahawk6]

[  :goodpost:

Kim Jong Un is awaiting your diplomacy. President Clinton tried buying off the North Koreans by giving them billions to discard their nuclear program. Now 23 years later they have a very limited nuclear capability and remain a threat to their neighbors. Give them more money to advance their nuclear/ICBM program or risk war. No easy way forward.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Kim Jong Un is awaiting your diplomacy. President Clinton tried buying off the North Koreans by giving them billions to discard their nuclear program. Now 23 years later they have a very limited nuclear capability and remain a threat to their neighbors. Give them more money to advance their nuclear/ICBM program or risk war. No easy way forward.

For a start...

I'd ask for North Korean help to defeat ISIS.. or something like that.

We're not trying hard enough and leaning on pre-1914 diplomatic methofogies AFAIC.

Where is our 21st century Metternich?

 

[Kirkhill]

Metternich?

He was dealing with a bunch of people worn out by 23 years of Napoleon, the RN and the Bank of England.

Stephenson?

Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo and the Atomic Bomb

Westphalia?

100 years of Huguenot wars


Where's the incentive?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Not wanting to participate in missile defense was always a stupid policy ...

So says a former Defence & Foreign Affairs Minister, in hindsight - this from Russian-funded media ...

A former Canadian defense minister says he "regrets" that Ottawa did not advance talks to join the US missile defense program years ago, citing the recent North Korean military and missile tests.

Peter MacKay, who served as Canadian defense minister from 2007 to 2013, says he wishes he had signed onto the program when he had the chance, emphasizing the increasing threats posed by North Korea.

"We share a great deal of intelligence with the United States and if they're alarmed, we should be alarmed," MacKay told CBC News, adding that not being part of the program is a "big problem."

(...)

MacKay went on to state that he doubts many people "grasp the gravity" of the threats posed by Pyongyang, or the recent technological advances that have been made by North Korea.

"Given the tone, the tenor of this threat, I really think it's time for Canada to move past this...allergic reaction that, I think for years, has existed to Canada entering into ballistic missile defense program with the United States," he said.

Conservatives said they were in favor of joining the missile defense program when they entered office in 2006. However, they made no attempt to pursue the program - which was the subject of serious debate under the government of former Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin - over the course of nearly a decade.

"There's no denying we did not move in that direction, although there were discussions, and I personally, as [former] defense minister, have regrets we weren't able to advance those discussions," MacKay, a Conservative, said ...

 

[Cdn Blackshirt]

It always disappoints me to see politicians admit that they are following the sheep, instead of leading them....  :facepalm:

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I think that PM Harper made the political calculation that joining the US Missile Defense would cause him more losses of voters than the then estimated risk that NK would develop intercontinental missiles, regardless of how much sense it made from a tactical point of view (single continental integrated system) or strategic point of view (integration within NORAD, so Canada would be at the decision table), regardless of low cost.

That time has passed and now, if Canada wants in (and personally I say that not only we should, but we must - I suggest people look at a globe: Any NK missile that could reach the US west coast, say down to San Francisco, can reach into Canada all the way to Manitoba) we will have to pay our way in. Acquiring CSC's fitted with ballistic missile detection radars and SM-3's would go along way toward raising our participation again and moving the whole thing back to NORAD.

I know alleged experts say Canada is not likely to be a NK target. I believe this view to be not only incorrect, but also a very narrow North American centric view of things. In North America (and possibly Europe, I don't know), this whole Korean matter is currently seen as something between the two Korea's and the US as the South's defender. But in NK, they see the whole thing as the "cold" continuation of the Korean War of the 50's. To them, they are still at war -but held in place by the armistice - with their opponent of the day, which is the world as represented by the UN, and they probably consider all of the major participants of that time as legitimate combatants, and therefore targets. So if you are going to make a "demonstration" launch in such circumstances to prove how big your dick is, why would you lob it at the strongest opponent you try to impress when you can lob it at a much smaller power, incapable of retaliating in kind, that you perceive as a participant and a "lackey" of the big power you wish to dissuade. Much easier and less risky to launch at Victoria than Seattle might be the logic. We have to stop seeing things through our point of view and start considering theirs.   

 

[Rifleman62]

Canada can't count on a NK ICBM hitting what it is aimed at. A drop short could possibly land somewhere in Canada. Additionally there is the radioactive fallout that may drift into Canada and depending on the size of the warhead, the effects of a regional nuclear winter. BC has forest fires now. Could we handle a massive forest fire started in the state of Washington spreading Northward? The Japanese in the Second World War wanted to start forest fires with their balloon bombs.

Is Canada prepared to react to assist the Canadian populous in the event of a nuclear attack? Assist possible US survivors who may cross the border?

 

[Old Sweat]

Deja Vu all over again for this geriatric soldier. In the early Cold War era - mid-50s and into the 60s the Canadian Army had a fairly sophisticated national survival organization to conduct re-entry operations in possible target areas across the country. You can still see the various bunkers in places like Shilo where the provincial governments would deploy skeleton staffs (and the feds into the Diefenbunker in Carp) to provide continuity of government.

The militia was restructured from a number of divisions and brigades into national survival columns and exchanged its weapons for "snakes and ladders." This pretty well destroyed the recruiting base for the reserves, and contributed to its downsizing after integration. And, yes, the regular force did practice re-entry operations as well.

I don't think we are going back to those days, but there should be a crap load of studies, plans, etc in LAC, if anybody is interested.

Add. Officer promotion exams included a three hour written one on national survival for both lieutenant to captain and captain to major.

 

[Rifleman62]

You remember the Ponderosa in Shilo: the village of several buildings simulating a hit, with various "collapses" V, pancake etc. built specifically for NS Trg. Trg was knots/lashings, removal of casualties from bldgs/trees. Always fun being the casualty tied in a stretcher being removed from the second story, especially when it frequently flipped upside down.

In Wpg the plan was to RV in Portage La Prairie (50 miles West) and re-enter Wpg to save the citizens. I have a copy of the plan somewhere. For me I had to take a streetcar if it was on schedule, to Minto Armoury, start a frozen 3/4 ton, load stores, drive to the RV. That took how many hours? Flight time of an ICBM from Russia? You can see the government/Army plan was not realistic.

 

[Old Sweat]

Indeed. The initial planning was done in the manned bomber era with Soviet aircraft coming over the pole and/or from Siberia. Where do you think the airborne response to lodgements in the north came from? Early on, it was felt the Soviets might seize refuelling airfields in the north prior to launching nuclear strikes.

The plans, while unrealistic by the mid-sixties, were better than northing, especially if there was strategic warning that would have convinced the federal and provincial governments to act before the strikes were launched.

Few of us had very many delusions about our chances of survival. During the Cuban Missile Crisis I was on a course at the RCSA in Shilo, and still remember my frustration and disappointment at the prospect of dying away from my troops in 1 RCHA in Gagetown.

 

[MilEME09]

You remember the Ponderosa in Shilo: the village of several buildings simulating a hit, with various "collapses" V, pancake etc. built specifically for NS Trg. Trg was knots/lashings, removal of casualties from bldgs/trees. Always fun being the casualty tied in a stretcher being removed from the second story, especially when it frequently flipped upside down.

In Wpg the plan was to RV in Portage La Prairie (50 miles West) and re-enter Wpg to save the citizens. I have a copy of the plan somewhere. For me I had to take a streetcar if it was on schedule, to Minto Armoury, start a frozen 3/4 ton, load stores, drive to the RV. That took how many hours? Flight time of an ICBM from Russia? You can see the government/Army plan was not realistic.

Basically you better hope that first strike comes while your on EX far away from the city. Even if you were a lucky SOB and were outside a target, I doubt you would have CBRN gear, or be able to get access to any quickly enough to safely enter a contaminated zone to have any one left to save.

 

[Old Sweat]

Basically you better hope that first strike comes while your on EX far away from the city. Even if you were a lucky SOB and were outside a target, I doubt you would have CBRN gear, or be able to get access to any quickly enough to safely enter a contaminated zone to have any one left to save.

There was no intention to enter "contaminated" zones, and there would have been more than enough rescue work in the areas damaged by blast and heat/flash. The actual highly-radioative area was limited, if the burst was detonated far enough above the ground to maximize damage from the other two effects I mentioned in the preceding sentence. Re-entry was also planned to be from upwind of the site to minimize exposure to fallout from particles sucked up into the cloud.

 

[Cdn Blackshirt]

The peaceniks are a truly silly group.

What they don't comprehend is that:
1.  The NK leadership are batshit crazy, do not see the world as we do and therefore negotiating with them based on our western values and ideals is hopeless.
2.  They give zero thought to the 10's of millions imprisoned under the NK Leadership, yet complain about the civil rights atrocities which occur in the USA under Trump. As they are seen to be living under a 'socialist banner, imprisonment, torture and even executions are all totally fine.
3. There is no recognition that although an NK Mike may be launched at Seattle or Los Angeles that they may miscalculated and it ends up hectoring towards Victoria or Vancouver. 

Bottom line is that with serious issues like this, you need more serious people than the Corwyn-ite crew influencing decisions that impact the security of our citizens.

 

[MarkOttawa]

And still the missiled defence syndrome:

Freeland pledges support for U.S. as tensions escalate with North Korea
...
Asked whether Canada should rethink its policy on the anti-ballistic missile program, Ms. Freeland did not directly answer the question. Rather, she said it is important to focus on the source of the problem at hand: North Korea...
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/freeland-pledges-support-for-us-as-tensions-escalate-with-north-korea/article35964914/

And its missiles, eh?

Mark
Ottawa

 

[a_majoor]

The peaceniks are a truly silly group.

What they don't comprehend is that:
1.  The NK leadership are batshit crazy, do not see the world as we do and therefore negotiating with them based on our western values and ideals is hopeless.
2.  They give zero thought to the 10's of millions imprisoned under the NK Leadership, yet complain about the civil rights atrocities which occur in the USA under Trump. As they are seen to be living under a 'socialist banner, imprisonment, torture and even executions are all totally fine.
3. There is no recognition that although an NK Mike may be launched at Seattle or Los Angeles that they may miscalculated and it ends up hectoring towards Victoria or Vancouver. 

Bottom line is that with serious issues like this, you need more serious people than the Corwyn-ite crew influencing decisions that impact the security of our citizens.

First you need to get the people who vote for the Corwyn-lite politicians, or support Corwyn lite talking heads to understand the true nature and gravity of the situation, otherwise the Corwyn-lites get on and dominate the stage, poisoning the environment for clear understanding and discussion, much less decision making.

 

[daftandbarmy]

“Dictators ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry.” ~

Winston Churchill

My guess is that the NK leadership is working hard to stay mounted...

 

[The Bread Guy]

A bit of the latest from NORAD's deputy boss ...

Current U.S. policy directs the American military not to defend Canada if it is targeted in a ballistic missile attack, says the top Canadian officer at the North American Aerospace Defence Command.

"We're being told in Colorado Springs that the extant U.S. policy is not to defend Canada," said Lt.-Gen. Pierre St-Amand, deputy commander of Colorado-based Norad.

"That is the policy that's stated to us. So that's the fact that I can bring to the table."

St-Amand delivered that revelation Thursday during an appearance before the House of Commons defence committee, which is studying the extent to which Canada is ready for an attack by North Korea.

The study comes after several provocative nuclear and ballistic missile tests by North Korea, which have stoked fears Canada could end up in the middle of a confrontation between the U.S. and the so-called hermit kingdom.

Those tests have also resurrected questions over whether Canada should join the U.S. ballistic missile defence shield, which it famously opted out of in 2005 following a divisive national debate.

St-Amand said Canadian and U.S. military personnel at Norad headquarters in Colorado Springs, Colo., work side-by-side detecting potential airborne threats to North America.

But Canada would have no role in deciding what to do if North Korea or any other country fired a missile at North America, he said ...

More @ link

 

[QV]

"Revelation"...LOL

Why would another country commit its defence ordnance to protect a neighbouring country that won't participate in that defence program? Surprise surprise. 

 

[Rifleman62]

IMHO, Canada's current policy clearly indicates that LPC policy is more important than the safety of Canada's citizens.

(Tony trigger)

 

[The Bread Guy]

(Tony trigger)

:rofl:  Touché!