Syria Superthread [merged]

[TCBF]

Until you have used and seen and dealt with the aftereffects of napalm....don't even go there...

- On a theoretical level, I am not comfortable with weapons selection being the purview of only those who have "..used and seen and dealt...".

- On a practical level, humans can be crushed, impaled, burned, irradiated, asphyxiated and poisoned. I see no difference between napalm or fuel-air explosives, or fuel and ammunition secondary detonations initiated by HE or kinetic penetration.

 

[a_majoor]

Frankly, given the sorts of barbaric behaviours we see coming of of the so called Islamic State, burning them out with napalm seems rather appropriate (kill them with cleansing fire) and sends a pretty powerful PSYOPS message of our own.

But I am willing to accept the deployment and use of JDAM's, SDB's, Hellfire, thermobaric warheads and all the other paraphernalia of modern war instead.

 

[George Wallace]

Frankly, given the sorts of barbaric behaviours we see coming of of the so called Islamic State, burning them out with napalm seems rather appropriate (kill them with cleansing fire) and sends a pretty powerful PSYOPS message of our own.

But I am willing to accept the deployment and use of JDAM's, SDB's, Hellfire, thermobaric warheads and all the other paraphernalia of modern war instead.

Perhaps this will be our Lord's way of dealing with them.  One can only hope.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/570239/Asteroid-collision-course-earth


Hope his aim is good.

:-\

 

[CougarKing]

Assad's forces losing ground?

Reuters

Islamist rebels battle Syrian army near Assad heartland

AMMAN/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Islamist rebels and the Syrian army fought fierce battles in Latakia province overnight close to President Bashar al-Assad's ancestral home, the army and rebels said, after weeks of insurgent gains in the country's northwest.

Rebels seeking to topple Assad have in the past sought to bring their four-year-long insurgency close to coastal areas in government-held Latakia, heartland of Assad's minority Alawite community.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

Seems all that assistance from Iran, Hezbollah and Afghan mercenaries came to no avail:

Military.com

Are Assad's Military Forces on Verge of Collapse?

Jerusalem Post | May 02, 2015
Four years and 200,000 deaths later, the regime of Bashar al-Assad may be on its last leg.

The Syrian Army, faced with low morale, internal divisions and rapidly decreasing popularity, is facing its most serious challenges since the start of the four-year long Syrian Civil War that has claimed the lives of more 200,000 people.

Multiple rebel offenses have seen strategically important cities fall under the auspices of rebel control, such as Idlib and Jisr al-Shegour in the North and a concerted rebel effort making its way towards Damascus in the South.

"The trend lines for Assad are bad and getting worse," said a senior United States official in Washington who spoke to the New York Times on the condition of anonymity

(...SNIPPED)

 

[a_majoor]

Planning for the end game. Knocking out Assad and the Syrian regime is going to ba a major blow to Iran and the Iranian dream of asserting a hegemonic role overthe Middle East, and the physical separation of Iran from their Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon will also make supporting Hezbollah much more time consuming and resource intensive. Splintering the Iranian "Shiite Crescent" allows each part (Hezbollah, Syria and Iran) to be defeated in detail, which is the hope of the Saudis:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/05/26/the-wages-of-leading-from-behind/

The Wages of Leading from Behind

Turkey’s foreign minister has announced that the United States had agreed to “in principle” provide joint air support to some mainstream opposition forces in their fight against Bashar al-Assad’s government. Though anonymous Obama administration officials said that a final decision had not yet been made, that such escalation is being contemplated probably reflects Washington’s belief that Assad’s days are numbered and a desire to be seen as part of a coalition that ultimately brings him down.

Over the weekend, details emerged as to how the increased cooperation between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC appeared to be turning the tide on the ground against Assad’s beleaguered troops—something we here at The American Interest have been covering since rumors of such a regional pact first began to leak. Assad’s core demographics seem to be bled white. The moment for his toppling may well be at hand.

But what could four years ago—or even one year ago—been a U.S. triumph now may be a much darker prospect indeed (if still better than the alternative). In order to make their pact work, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have decided to back al Qaeda’s powerful local franchise, Jabhat al-Nusra; furthermore, in forming the alliance, they pointedly declared that any adverse U.S. opinion to what Ankara and Riyadh were doing “would not have bothered us.”

Both the Turks and Saudis, resentful of past U.S. inaction on toppling Assad, which each sees as a major priority, will likely to continue to think this way when or if the time comes to make decisions about a post-Assad Syria. And so the United States will wind up not shaping events from the front, nor even leading from behind, but may well wind up running after the bandwagon yelling, “wait for me!”
We had better hope that somewhere in the West Wing, people are working on strategies that go beyond “sign the Iran deal and everything else will fall into place.”

 

[tomahawk6]

Replacing Assad with the Islamic State is something that few could support.The idea of a partition has been floated but would IS be content with only part of Syria ?I think not.

 

[OldSolduer]

Replacing Assad with the Islamic State is something that few could support.The idea of a partition has been floated but would IS be content with only part of Syria ?I think not.

Agreed. They want nothing less than world domination.

 

[a_majoor]

From the Saudi position, ISIS is perhaps the "least worst" choice. The so called Caliphate has no real resource or industrial base once it destroys Syria, and most of its fighting power will probably be exhausted fighting the Shiite forces of Hezbollah, Syria and the Iranians. In addition, if the long term goal is to exert hegemony over the Middle East, then the destruction of Iranian power is only one step. The Caliphate of ISIS will also form a "firebreak" to prevent the Turks from exercising any sort of Imperial ambitions of their own, and should also serve to keep other potential competition in its place as well (think of the Kurds and Israelis, who will have to spend the next 50 years fighting an insurgent war on their own borders).

ISIS may be seen as a sort of "DPRK" like state to keep the region unsettled enough to prevent the creation of any countervailing force against the Saudis.

 

[a_majoor]

On a slightly different note, the Al Nusra front seems to be setting itself up to become the post war government of Syria (or whatever rump state is left from the remains):

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/05/28/nusra-we-have-no-western-front/

Nusra: We Have No Western Front

The leader of the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, the Nusra Front, has said that the group’s primary objectives are the capture of Damascus and the deposition of Assad, not attacks against the West. The BBC reports:

[Nusra leader Abu Mohammed al-] Julani said al-Nusra had been instructed by the overall leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to avoiding launching attacks abroad that might jeopardise its operations in Syria.

“We are only here to accomplish one mission, to fight the regime and its agents on the ground, including Hezbollah and others,” he stressed, referring to the Lebanese Shia Islamist movement that is fighting alongside government forces.

“Al-Nusra Front doesn’t have any plans or directives to target the West. We received clear orders not to use Syria as a launching pad to attack the US or Europe in order to not sabotage the true mission against the regime. Maybe al-Qaeda does that, but not here in Syria.”

He also denied the existence of the Khorasan Group, a branch or cell of the Nusra Front which U.S. strikes have also targeted in Syria. Only last week, a CIA official warned of the dangers of this little-known group, saying that it had Western targets in its sights.

This interview may well be only “self-serving propaganda”, as U.S. officials commented; it is certainly at least partly that. But it also seems to show a greater strategic sophistication. Recently backed by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, having piled up a string of victories, and facing a weakened enemy, Nusra has good grounds for believing the end of the war is in sight. It seems to be plotting how to win the peace, as well. Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Nusra was conspicuously treating captured territory more gently than ISIS, and in the al-Jazeera interview, Julani “also promised to protect Syrian minorities that disavowed Mr Assad.” Both of these measures are designed to conciliate the Syrian population. Combined with the vow not to attack the West, they also seem designed to placate Western fears. Nusra, in sum, seems to be making a bid to be seen as an acceptable post-war government (or as part of one) by both its subjects and the international community.

If so, this will put the U.S. in a bind. The U.S. does not want al Qaeda involved in a government in the heart of the Middle East, to put it mildly. On the other hand, there has long been a segment of U.S. foreign policy opinion that has favored working with lesser enemies, no matter how repellent, against greater ones as the quickest way to achieve results for the least U.S. blood and treasure (and, often, with the added bonus of both enemies being bruised in the fighting).

But whether the U.S. wants such a thing to come to pass or not may be irrelevant; we may have already forfeited our chance to choose. The Saudis and the Turks have made their move, and unless we are willing to seriously increase our involvement in Syria (backing whom—Assad? ISIS?), Nusra seems to be the front runner to take the greater part of the joint. Soon, therefore, we may find ourselves in a world where, fourteen years after 9-11, al Qaeda has moved from the mountains of Afghanistan to the palaces of Damascus. This would be a strategic failure on a monumental scale. The wages of ‘leading from behind’ continue to grow.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Replacing Assad with the Islamic State is something that few could support.The idea of a partition has been floated but would IS be content with only part of Syria ?I think not.

Assad was an idiot trapped in his own thinking, after the US invasion he could have been the darling of the West showing off his secular state where women could have careers, education , etc. Instead he plotted to help destabilize Iraq and stymie the US efforts there. Syria would have benefited from a stable Iraq and could have loosened his grip on Lebanon in exchange for all sorts of deals. 

 

[a_majoor]

iran is now buying mercenary fighters to bolster its position in Syria. If this is happening, one has to wonder what has happened to the thousands of Hezbollah fighters and the Iranian Quds force units who are also fighting in the region? But as the American Interest suggests, this is only a foretaste of what will occur if and when sanctions against Iran are lifted and Iran has more revenues to support their goals:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/06/02/assad-broadens-the-sectarian-war/

Assad Broadens The Sectarian War

What the Middle East doesn’t need right now is a further generalization of the sectarian war. But that is exactly what an increasingly desperate Assad is doing:

Iran is offering thousands of dollars to Shia mercenaries from Afghanistan and Pakistan to join the fight to keep President Assad of Syria in power.

According to Shia community leaders in Kabul, the recruitment drive is co-ordinated by the Iranian embassy in the Afghan capital. It provides visas to “hundreds” of Shia men each month willing to fight in Syria. Online Urdu- language recruitment is also taking place in Pakistan, with fighters offered $3,000 each to join up.
Some analysts believe that as many as 5,000 Afghans and Pakistanis are now fighting for the Assad regime, bolstering government troops whose morale has been battered by a series of reverses since the start of the year. They have lost territory, in the process, to increasingly well-organised rebel units backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Iran is the main provider of arms, fighters and finance to the Assad regime.

This increase in mercenary support comes at a time when the Assad regime is thought to control only 20–30% Syria’s territory, and is considering a withdrawal from positions that are not vital to its survival.

Yet despite the worsening fortunes of Tehran’s longtime ally, Iran’s President Rouhani defiantly proclaimed today that “The Iranian nation and government will remain at the side of the Syrian nation and government until the end of the road.” In another show of support, Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani recently made a visit to Syria’s Latakia region, the heartland of the Assad regime. Soleimani subsequently reaffirmed Iran’s continuing commitment to the Syrian regime, announcing that “The world will be surprised by what we and the Syrian military leadership are preparing for the coming days.”

Chilling words today—and but a taste of what is likely to happen as Tehran finds extra revenue sloshing around its coffers if and when international sanctions are eased.

 

[cavalryman]

Professor Reynolds has an interesting commentary that sort of follows on to Thucydides' post

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/207917/

Small excerpt:
"Perhaps the foreign policy geniuses in the Obama Administration have taken this advice to heart, and figure that a decade or so of bloody religious strife throughout the Muslim world will produce a renewed appreciation for secularism. I don’t know if this is their plan or not — I mean, if it were, they wouldn’t come out and say so, would they? — but if it is their plan, then congratulations on stellar execution."

 

[tomahawk6]

The Syrian Army is close to collapse under pressure from ISIS and the western backed Syrian rebels.If the Iranians want to save Assad they will have to deploy alot of troops,most likely the IRG.If they do nothing and Assad goes then the jihadists will be facing off against the US backed rebels.What a mess !!

 

[George Wallace]

Perhaps that is why Jon Stewart's  "America in the Middle East: Learning Curves Are For Pussies." from The Daily Show (2015 06 02) seems to be 'censored'.

 

[a_majoor]

How Iran keeps the Assad regime going:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/06/25/how-irans-oil-artery-is-keeping-assad-alive/

How Iran’s Oil Artery Is Keeping Assad Alive

Direct transfusions of oil from Iran might be one of the few things keeping Bashar Assad on his bloody throne. Bloomberg reports:

New Bloomberg analysis of tanker movement  suggests Iran has sent about 10 million barrels of crude to Syria so far this year—or about 60,000 barrels a day. With oil prices averaging $59 a barrel over the past six months, that’s about $600 million in aid since January. […]

With most of Syria’s oil and gas producing regions controlled by either the Kurds or Islamic State, these crude shipments from Iran are vital to the Assad regime’s ability to hang on to power, says Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. This crude is likely being processed into fuel oil at the Banias refinery, he says, where it can be used for home heating oil, for power generation, and as fuel for what’s left of Assad’s military.

“Iran is basically fueling the entire country,” says Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Sounds like a pretty straightforward case of the sort of thing American sanctions are designed to prevent, right? But the U.S., according to Bloomberg, can’t do anything to stop it. Why?

By simply giving oil to Syria rather than charging for it, Iran is able to skirt U.S. and European Union sanctions designed to limit Iran’s crude exports. Under the sanctions regime imposed in mid-2012 as a penalty for its nuclear program, Iran is allowed to sell oil to only six countries: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey. “This is just a blatant violation of U.S. sanctions,” says Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington and a supporter of tougher sanctions. “It’s allowing Iran to fund Assad’s war machine with no repercussions.”

This sounds like the sort of thing a creative Administration could figure out a way to stop—quarantines, port or safety inspections, or even more “creative” options. But then again, a creative Administration would have been keen to put pressure on Assad, rather than ostentatiously take its hands off him.

As each day goes by, the Iran deal is looking less and less likely to stick. We’ve said since the beginning we hope for a good deal, and we continue to wish (some would say, hope against evidence) that Secretary Kerry will emerge from Geneva with something effective. But we’re also realists, and we hope someone in the West Wing is making backup plans. This is exactly the sort of pressure point, useful against both Iran and Syria, that the United States will want to look to squeeze should negotiations fail.

 

[McG]

Is help from an old friend coming?  Vladimir Putin has pledged to continue political, economic and military support Syria as he called on all Middle East nations to join forces against ISIS.

Putin says Russia's support for Syria's Assad remains unchanged
The Associated Press
Published Monday, June 29, 2015 7:24AM EDT
Last Updated Monday, June 29, 2015 7:36AM EDT

MOSCOW -- In a surprise meeting with Syria's foreign minister, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged his support Monday for Syrian President Bashar Assad and called on all Middle East nations to join forces to fight Islamic State militants.

The war in Syria, which began with protests in March 2011, has killed more than 220,000 people. Russia, which has traditionally strong ties to Syria, has been seen as a key to a peaceful solution and has previously rebuffed suggestions that Assad's resignation could help end the war.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday then was whisked to the Kremlin to meet with Putin.

Russian news agencies quoted Putin as telling the Syrian envoy that Russia's "policy to support Syria, the Syrian leadership and the Syrian people remains unchanged."

Putin also urged other Middle East countries to help Syria fight the armed Islamic factions that now control parts of the Syrian capital and large parts of the city's suburbs.

Putin said Moscow's contacts with the countries in the region, including with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, "show that everyone wants to contribute to fight this evil," he said referring to Islamic State militants.

He exhorted all nations in the region, whatever their relations with Syria are, to "pull their efforts together" to fight Islamic militants.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/putin-says-russia-s-support-for-syria-s-assad-remains-unchanged-1.2445035

 

[CougarKing]

Pressure from the Saudis and the Gulf states finally made Obama cave in to their demands to target Assad? The Iranians won't be happy that their proxy Assad forces may be targeted.

Reuters

U.S. to defend Syrian rebels with airpower, including from Assad
Sun Aug 2, 2015 9:59pm ED

By Phil Stewart

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has decided to allow airstrikes to defend Syrian rebels trained by the U.S. military from any attackers, even if the enemies hail from forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, U.S. officials said on Sunday.

The decision by President Barack Obama, which could deepen the U.S. role in Syria's conflict, aims to shield a still-fledging group of Syrian fighters armed and trained by the United States to battle Islamic State militants -- not forces loyal to Assad.

But in Syria's messy civil war, Islamic State is only one of the threats to the U.S. recruits. The first batch of U.S.-trained forces deployed to northern Syria came under fire on Friday from other militants, triggering the first known U.S. airstrikes to support them.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[a_majoor]

Talk about sucking and blowing at the same time; the USAF and Western airforces are essentially acting as the Iranian airforce in Iraq and Syria, now they are bombing the Iranian proxies in Syria....

There is no coherent strategy at all in this region anymore by the West. The best way to represent our interests would be to sharply reduce our presence and provide limited support to whatever pro Western factions (or at least factions that will be a thorn in the sides of would be hegemons) still exist. Israel, Jordan (for now), the Kurds and the Baloch all come to mind, perhaps there are other groups with enough numbers and coherence to make a difference as well, but none come to mind right now.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Talk about sucking and blowing at the same time; the USAF and Western airforces are essentially acting as the Iranian airforce in Iraq and Syria, now they are bombing the Iranian proxies in Syria....

There is no coherent strategy at all in this region anymore by the West. The best way to represent our interests would be to sharply reduce our presence and provide limited support to whatever pro Western factions (or at least factions that will be a thorn in the sides of would be hegemons) still exist. Israel, Jordan (for now), the Kurds and the Baloch all come to mind, perhaps there are other groups with enough numbers and coherence to make a difference as well, but none come to mind right now.

Withdraw ALL Western military forces (Israel can look after itself and it will look after Jordan, too, if it comes to that) and send in ALL the Western arms pedlars Lots and lots of dead Arabs (and Persians and North Africans and West Asians) and lots and lots of cash on the barrelhead arms sales ...
well, we might say: