Syria Superthread [merged]

[cupper]

It still doesn't answer the question, what could the west do in first place?

 

[Jed]

A couple of thoughts wrt to Foxhound comments;

I am not so sure there is any significant push from the west to jump into this foray other than a few misguided and ill informed souls.

A lot of folks are pretty choked with Israel for blatantly taking out a known UN position (albeit in error) to get at the bad guys and the extremely heart wrenching fallout from that.

 

[a_majoor]

Another potential issue with the disintegration of the Syrian regime. What else is hidden away in Syria?

http://news.investors.com/article/618875/201207191902/syria-chemical-weapons-came-from-iraq-.htm?p=full

Syria's Chemical Weapons Came From Saddam's Iraq

Posted 07/19/2012 07:02 PM ET
 
War On Terror: As the regime of Bashar Assad disintegrates, the security of his chemical arsenal is in jeopardy. The No. 2 general in Saddam Hussein's air force says they were the WMDs we didn't find in Iraq.

King Abdullah of neighboring Jordan warned that a disintegrating Syria on the verge of civil war puts Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons at risk of falling into the hands of al-Qaida.

"One of the worst-case scenarios as we are obviously trying to look for a political solution would be if some of those chemical stockpiles were to fall into unfriendly hands," he said.

The irony here is that the chemical weapons stockpile of Syrian thug Assad may in large part be the legacy of weapons moved from Hussein's Iraq into Syria before Operation Iraqi Freedom.

If so, this may be the reason not much was found in the way of WMD by victorious U.S. forces in 2003.

In 2006, former Iraqi general Georges Sada, second in command of the Iraqi Air Force who served under Saddam Hussein before he defected, wrote a comprehensive book, "Saddam's Secrets."

It details how the Iraqi Revolutionary Guard moved weapons of mass destruction into Syria in advance of the U.S.-led action to eliminate Hussein's WMD threat.

As Sada told the New York Sun, two Iraqi Airways Boeings were converted to cargo planes by removing the seats, and special Republican Guard units loaded the planes with chemical weapons materials.

There were 56 flights disguised as a relief effort after a 2002 Syrian dam collapse.

There were also truck convoys into Syria. Sada's comments came more than a month after Israel's top general during Operation Iraqi Freedom, Moshe Yaalon, told the Sun that Saddam "transferred the chemical agents from Iraq to Syria."

Both Israeli and U.S. intelligence observed large truck convoys leaving Iraq and entering Syria in the weeks and months before Operation Iraqi Freedom, John Shaw, former deputy undersecretary of defense for international technology security, told a private conference of former weapons inspectors and intelligence experts held in Arlington, Va., in 2006.

According to Shaw, ex-Russian intelligence chief Yevgeni Primakov, a KGB general with long-standing ties to Saddam, went to Iraq in December 2002 and stayed until just before the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003.

Anticipating the invasion, his job was to supervise the removal of such weapons and erase as much evidence of Russian involvement as possible.

The Russian-assisted "cleanup" operation was entrusted to a combination of GRU and Spetsnaz troops and Russian military and civilian personnel in Iraq "under the command of two experienced ex-Soviet generals, Colonel-General Vladislav Achalov and Colonel-General Igor Maltsev, both retired and posing as civilian commercial consultants."

Washington Times reporter Bill Gertz reported on Oct. 30, 2004, that Achalov and Maltsev had been photographed receiving medals from Iraqi Defense Minister Sultan Hashim Ahmad in a Baghdad building bombed by U.S. cruise missiles during the first U.S. air raids in early March 2003. Apparently they did their job well.

An article in the fall 2005 Middle East Quarterly reports that in an appearance on Israel's Channel 2 on Dec. 23, 2002, Israel's prime minister, Ariel Sharon, stated: "Chemical and biological weapons which Saddam is endeavoring to conceal have been moved from Iraq to Syria." According to the article, about three weeks later, Israel's foreign minister repeated the accusation.

Syria has long had its own chemical weapons program, but the extent it may have been aided by weapons and materials transferred by Iraq before the war has only been the source of conjecture.

We may soon find out what happened to much of Saddam's WMD.

 

[Jed]

Another potential issue with the disintegration of the Syrian regime. What else is hidden away in Syria?

http://news.investors.com/article/618875/201207191902/syria-chemical-weapons-came-from-iraq-.htm?p=full

As Sada told the New York Sun, two Iraqi Airways Boeings were converted to cargo planes by removing the seats, and special Republican Guard units loaded the planes with chemical weapons materials.

There were 56 flights disguised as a relief effort after a 2002 Syrian dam collapse.


I guess this is one reason the Syrian officials blew us off when we at the UNDOF mission offered to help when the ' Dam disaster' occurred.

 

[George Wallace]

As Sada told the New York Sun, two Iraqi Airways Boeings were converted to cargo planes by removing the seats, and special Republican Guard units loaded the planes with chemical weapons materials.

There were 56 flights disguised as a relief effort after a 2002 Syrian dam collapse.


I guess this is one reason the Syrian officials blew us off when we at the UNDOF mission offered to help when the ' Dam disaster' occurred.

WOW!  Back to speculation/conspiracy theory/etc. on Saddam's WMDs.

 

[fraserdw]

Those chemical weapons are more likely to end up being used against the Putinites in Dagestan.  Very ironic, indeed.

 

[a_majoor]

And the front continues to expand. It would not surprise me greatly if a similar case were to surface in Canada:

http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2012/07/20/virginia-man-sentenced-for-spying-for-syrian-government/?mod=WSJBlogtab/print/

Virginia Man Sentenced for Spying for Syrian Government

By Chelsea Phipps

A Virginia man was sentenced to 18 months in prison for passing intelligence to the Syrian government, the Justice Department said.

Mohamad Anas Haitham Soueid was accused of collecting information, audio and video of individuals protesting the Syrian government in the U.S. and Syria and giving it to Syrian intelligence agencies.

“While the autocratic Syrian regime killed, kidnapped, intimidated and silenced thousands of its own citizens, Mr. Soueid spearheaded efforts to identify and intimidate those protesting against the Syrian government in the United States,” said Neil MacBride, U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, in a statement.

Mr. Soueid, a Syrian-born naturalized U.S. citizen, pleaded guilty to six counts of acting as an agent of a foreign government. Prosecutors said he recruited individuals in the U.S. to help gather information and supplied the Syrian government with contact information for key protesters in the U.S. and others.

Mr. Soueid hand-wrote a letter of support to a Syrian official in April 2011, saying that he believed the dissension should be disposed of in a quick and decisive manner even through violence, home invasions and arrests.

Haytham Faraj,  who represented Mr. Soueid before he ran out of money, called Mr. Soueid’s sentence “laughable,” next to the charges he had faced.

“He was facing many years in prison. They claim that he was responsible for the deaths of many people,” Mr Faraj said.

Michael Nachmanoff, the Federal Public Defender in the Eastern District of Virginia, said the sentence reflected that “Soueid was motivated by a desire to prevent Islamic radicals from taking over his home country of Syria.”

 

[GAP]

The Syrian Air Force hasn't been a factor up until now....if Assad gets desperate he might just start using them......

Syrian Air Force Worries U.S.
By Richard Sisk Monday, July 23rd, 2012
Article Link

Pentagon officials put it out there almost as an aside with the announcement last week that the carrier Stennis was going back to the Gulf early to keep two carriers in the region indefinitely as a signal to Iran. It was meant for Syria too, they said.

The debate within the Obama administration on whether to arm the Syrian rebels has shifted recently with reports that the tottering regime of President Bashar al-Assad has started moving some of its chemical weapons out of storage. The concerns now are on what the repercussions would be if Israel moved to seize or destroy them, or the U.S. acted on its own.

But the more immediate problem for the U.S. could be posed by the Syrian air force. To date, Assad has used helicopter gunships but kept his more than 400 Russian-made Mig21, Mig23, Su22 and Su24 attack planes, and Mig29 fighters in reserve, possibly out of fear that the pilots would defect and also out of fear that airstrikes would bring a U.S. response.

Strikes against the rebels by fixed-wing Syrian aircraft would put enormous political pressure on the administration to set up a no-fly zone over Syria, something Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and others have advocated for months, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff have warned that it wouldn’t be easy.

Adm. James (Sandy) Winnefeld, vice chairman of the JCS and a veteran combat pilot, went on record a few weeks back:  “If we were to use force in Syria, it’s a challenge. It’s a large country. It’s got a very, very capable, integrated air defense system. They have some 1,500 tons of chemical and biological weapons in that nation that we have to take seriously. So it is not an insignificant military challenge, as opposed to, for example, what we saw in Libya.”

As a guest on the Sunday talk shows, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was losing patience with the U.S. stance on both Iran and Syria.  “Do I seek action, no. Do I preclude it, no,” he said.

Netanyahu said he was okay with more negotiations with Iran on halting its nuclear programs – “Yeah, if you stop the programs.”

On Syria, Netanyahu said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that “we’ll be in for a rougher ride, and we’ll have to rough it out.”

Read more: http://www.lineofdeparture.com/2012/07/23/syrian-air-force-worries-u-s/#ixzz21U6ZAfUL

More on link

 

[GAP]

Turkey Watches Warily as Kurds Mobilize in Northern Syria
By Catherine Cheney, on 27 Jul 2012
Article Link

With his grip over Syria apparently loosening, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has abandoned the border area between Syria and Turkey, allowing Kurdish militants to take control of several towns in northern Syria. The development heightens the possibility of involvement by Iraqi Kurds as well as by Turkey, introducing new tensions to the Syrian conflict.

“Syria is fragmenting, and for the first time in recent history Kurds are taking matters into their own hands,” said Hugh Pope, Turkey and Cyprus project director for the International Crisis Group. Pope explained that it is still unclear whether Syrian Kurds will unite to push for full rights within the Syrian state or whether they will work toward an autonomous Syrian Kurdish solution. “Certainly, the most important trend line, as can be seen on Kurdish Twitter feeds, is the sense that Syrian Kurds, like the Iraqi Kurds before them, are at last breaking through to some self-rule and international sympathy.”

Henri Barkey, a professor of international relations at Lehigh University, said the developments potentially represent “the beginning of the redrawing of Middle Eastern boundaries.”

“The Kurds will drive a hard bargain and want a federal arrangement of some sort for themselves,” he added.

However, Michael Gunter, an expert on Kurds in Turkey and Iraq and professor of political science at Tennessee Tech University, said he thinks it is unlikely the Syrian Kurds will be able to create an independent Kurdish state in northern Syria.

“The Kurds in Syria are a relatively small minority compared to Turkey, and especially compared to Iraq and Iran,” he said. “Not only do they make up only 10 percent of the population, but they are also divided geographically and ideologically.”

Given these divisions, Pope said, it is possible the Syrian Kurds will “fragment themselves and fight among each other,” particularly since the Democratic Union Party of Syria (PYD), which is aligned with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), has an ideology and perspective that sets it apart from other Syrian Kurds.

For now, Pope added, the Syrian Kurds have put many of their differences aside, working under the aegis of Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan Region. Barzani has supported Syrian Kurds in part by providing military training to Kurdish defectors from the Syrian military.

With Syria imploding, Gunter said, Barzani is “practically being handed” the key to the pan-Kurdish state so many Kurds desire.

However, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan recently warned that he would not hesitate to intervene in response to any threat to Turkey from PKK-linked Kurdish groups in northern Syria. And today, Turkey announced that Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu would be heading to Irbil to express Ankara’s displeasure over Barzani’s decision to provide military training to Syrian Kurds.

“Many Syrian Kurds living near the border come from Turkey, and it is particularly upsetting to Turkey to know that right on their border there are Turkish exiles who are thinking of maybe coming home and reclaiming the homeland,” Gunter said. “But the most immediate problem is that this newfound Kurdish autonomy in Syria right on the Turkish border is an unwanted magnet for the Kurds living in Turkey who are so restless anyway.”

Pope said that despite its warnings, Turkey will likely stay on the sidelines “as long as the PKK sister party PYD remains in a front with the other Kurds, and does not threaten or attack Turkey.”

“Ankara, too, is focused on the major prize of how and when the Damascus regime will change,” he explained.
More on link

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Is this the end of Sykes-Picot?

 

[Journeyman]

A main concern regarding the Kurds is that they inhabit the real estate of the Southeastern Anatolia Project, damming the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, particularly the massive Ataturk Dam. Turkey has already been accused by Syria and Iraq of withholding water-flow as a weapon -- a major reason why Syria actively supports the PKK.

If it appeared that the Kurds were seriously threatening any of the major dams in the system, I suspect another Armenian-style genocide could be a Turkish option.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

A main concern regarding the Kurds is that they inhabit the real estate of the Southeastern Anatolia Project, damming the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, particularly the massive Ataturk Dam. Turkey has already been accused by Syria and Iraq of withholding water-flow as a weapon -- a major reason why Syria actively supports the PKK.

At one time Syria was a big time supporter of the PKK, but about 10 years ago the Turkey's gave the Syrians an ultimatum; "Keep providing support and we come across the border." The Syrians knew the Turks weren't bluffing and kicked the PKK out of the country. That's one of the reasons Turkish special forces were able to capture the leader of the PKK.

If it appeared that the Kurds were seriously threatening any of the major dams in the system, I suspect another Armenian-style genocide could be a Turkish option.

Retaliation yes, genocide no. Anything like ethnic cleansing/genocide would be both a domestic and foreign relations disaster.

 

[Journeyman]

Well, Syria continues to support/is once again supporting PKK; they are quite active within Syria's northern frontier according to open source reporting.

It's a matter of degree and speculation between saying "Armenian-style genocide could be a Turkish option," and your use of generic "retaliation." The Southeastern Anatolia Project is very dear to the Turks -- I suspect that any threat would warrant more than a wrist-slapping.

Not meant as an insult, but I also suspect that my info may be slightly more current than from whenever you transitioned out of Int.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Turks will get uncomfortable with yet another "Kurdish autonomous region on their borders. I wonder if this area splits off and with the Iraq Kurds not that keen on being part of Iraq, we might be witnessing the birth of Kurdistan?

Another thought, Turks cross the border in force to "protect" citizens, etc, Syria attacks them with gas, how many think Turkey will pull the NATO card?

 

[a_majoor]

Large info graphic about the battle for Aleppo: http://nationalpostnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/toronto-fo0803_aleppo1.jpg

 

[Journeyman]

According to al Jazeera, the UN General Assembly just passed a resolution (133 votes for, 12 against, and 31 abstentions) denouncing the Syrian use of tanks, artillery, helicopters and warplanes on the people of Aleppo and Damascus.

~whew~  Another conflict now gripped.

The resolution also resolution bitch-slaps the Security Council, 'deploring its failure to act'....so we can expect the UNSC to be working more effectively now too.

      :nod:


/sarcasm

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Foreign Affairs is an article that gets to the real goal - how to ferment a real revolution in Iran, one that will topple the current theocracy:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137803/michael-ledeen/tehran-takedown?page=show

Tehran Takedown
How to Spark an Iranian Revolution

Michael Ledeen

July 31, 2012

The nuclear question is at the center of most countries' Iran policies. China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have all engaged in negotiations to convince Tehran to give up its presumed quest for the bomb. Now, with talks sputtering, Western powers have implemented increasingly tough sanctions, including the European Union's recent embargo on Iranian oil, in the hope of compelling the regime to reverse course.

Yet history suggests, and even many sanctions advocates agree, that sanctions will not compel Iran's leaders to scrap their nuclear program. In fact, from Fidel Castro's Cuba to Saddam Hussein's Iraq, hostile countries have rarely changed policy in response to Western embargoes. Some sanctions advocates counter that sanctions did work to get Chile to abandon communism, South Africa to end apartheid, and Libya to give up its nuclear program. But the Chilean and South African governments were not hostile -- they were pro-Western, and thus more amenable to the West's demands. And Libya's Muammar al-Qaddafi ended his nuclear pursuit only after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, fearing that he would suffer the same fate as Saddam Hussein.

...

That is why the time has come for the United States and other Western nations to actively support Iran's democratic dissidents. The same methods that took down the Soviet regime should work: call for the end of the regime, broadcast unbiased news about Iran to the Iranian people, demand the release of political prisoners (naming them whenever possible), help those prisoners communicate with one another, enlist international trade unions to build a strike fund for Iranian workers, and perhaps find ways to provide other kinds of economic and technological support. Meanwhile, the West should continue nuclear negotiations and stick to the sanctions regime, which shows the Iranian people resistance to their oppressive leaders.

Iran's democratic revolutionaries themselves must decide what kind of Western help they most need, and how to use it. But they will be greatly encouraged to see the United States and its allies behind them. There are many good reasons to believe that this strategy can succeed. Not least, the Iranian people have already demonstrated their willingness to confront the regime; the regime's behavior shows its fear of the people. The missing link is a Western decision to embrace and support democratic revolution in Iran -- the country that, after all, initiated the challenge to the region's tyrants three summers ago.

Basically, Michael Ledeen is suggesting that we prevent the Iranian bomb by finding and funding those opposition movement that are most likely to rise up and overthrow the ayatollas.  Works for me!

So, we have, in Syria, what I think we want in Iran and, indeed, throughout the Middle East and West Asia: a nice Arab civil war with some potential to grow into a internecine regional conflict.

What's the downside?

    Oil? No, while the price of oil will rise - it will do so anyway - that will have the desirable effect of making more unconventional oil supplies marketable. Arab oil will, eventually, come back on to the market and stabilize the global price.

    Innocent civilians? There is, I suggest, no such thing in civil wars and, in any event, preventing harm to innocent civilian matters only when we (Canadians) are involved, directly, in the conflict.

    Israel? It can look after itself.

Now, while I accept that the Arabs will still hate us even as they kill one another, they will be less likely to do us any harm while they are busy slaughtering their own.

Napoleon famously cautioned us against interfering with our enemy when he is making a mistake. The Arabs and Iranians and so on are our enemies and they are making mistakes ~ let's leave them to it.

 

[tamouh]

Basically, Michael Ledeen is suggesting that we prevent the Iranian bomb by finding and funding those opposition movement that are most likely to rise up and overthrow the ayatollas.  Works for me!



So, we have, in Syria, what I think we want in Iran and, indeed, throughout the Middle East and West Asia: a nice Arab civil war with some potential to grow into a internecine regional conflict.

What's the downside?

    Oil? No, while the price of oil will rise - it will do so anyway - that will have the desirable effect of making more unconventional oil supplies marketable. Arab oil will, eventually, come back on to the market and stabilize the global price.

    Innocent civilians? There is, I suggest, no such thing in civil wars and, in any event, preventing harm to innocent civilian matters only when we (Canadians) are involved, directly, in the conflict.

    Israel? It can look after itself.

Now, while I accept that the Arabs will still hate us even as they kill one another, they will be less likely to do us any harm while they are busy slaughtering their own.

Napoleon famously cautioned us against interfering with our enemy when he is making a mistake. The Arabs and Iranians and so on are our enemies and they are making mistakes ~ let's leave them to it.

The Arabs are not our enemy last time I've checked. Has it not been for many of the Arab states that currently exist (Qatar,Saudi,Jordan,UAE,Egypt), the entire ME map would have looked different. The risk of regional war that will drain significant portion of Wes/East resources is possible in the event of Iran/Arabs confrontation. Remember 1980s Iraq vs Iran war? That led to Iraq invading Kuwait, GW-I, GW-II.

Any regional war in the ME will involve the US and its allies, Russia and their allies. Lets not forget, Turkey is a NATO member and will be involved. US has tropped in Iraq and they'll be involved too.

 

[tamouh]

Syrian rebels acquire early SA-7 heat-seeking missiles (now you can claim the FSA is receiving direct outside support):

(In Syria, Potential Threat to Government Air Power Emerges)

Sources:

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/the-3-step-method-to-analyzing-video-of-weapon-systems-in-syria/

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/07/in-syria-potential-threat-to-government-air-power-emerges/

Video of gun fire against heli in Aleppo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCvGPg8qUlA

 

[Journeyman]

Has it not been for many of the Arab states that currently exist (Qatar,Saudi,Jordan,UAE,Egypt), the entire ME map would have looked different.

That's a pretty self-obvious statement -- if any one of our current provinces didn't exist then Canada's map would look different too. Whatever point you're trying to make, isn't.

Any regional war in the ME will involve the US and its allies, Russia and their allies. Lets not forget, Turkey is a NATO member and will be involved. US has tropped in Iraq and they'll be involved too.

By your ongoing posting in this thread, it's obvious that you have an interest in Syria. I suspect that that interest is causing you to overstate Syria's significance. I currently see no great risk of a regional war; the regional -- and global -- consensus appears to be a willingness to let a civil war play itself out.

The major concern is Turkey having sufficient accommodations for all the fleeing Syrian political and military leadership.