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Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

Direct response to your posed question- probably as these types are much less expensive to develop, produce and employ than the west's PGMs. IMO the reason behind area weapon development is the almost total control of the Russian press by Putin et al. No collateral damages reported to the quivering masses. Just a thought.
 
"The Bear" resurgent?

Reuters

Russia could soon run multiple Ukraine-sized operations: U.S. general
Reuters

By Adrian Croft | Reuters – 8 hours ago

WIESBADEN, Germany (Reuters) - Russia is working to develop within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine, a senior American general said.

Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told Reuters an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in Ukraine for now.

But that could change within a few years, when upgrades sought by President Vladimir Putin would give Russia the ability to carry out up to three such operations at the same time, without a mobilization that would give the West time to respond.


"Right now, without mobilizing, I don't think they have the capacity to do three major things at one time. They can do one thing, I think, in a big way without mobilizing. But in four to five years, I think that will change," Hodges said.

(...SNIPPED)
 
Throughout history, others have tried that.  Napoleon.  Hitler.  Almost all have met with dismal results and annihilation of their cause.
 
I wonder if a little quiet pressure applied to Sibera over a long time by China won't change Russia's tune?
 
Putin's Deputy Prime Minister to Davos - on the fate of that great liberal reformer, Catherine the Great:

Mr Shuvalov said a utopian quest for freedom is the curse that brought down the Soviet Union. In a bizarre digression, he then launched into tirade against former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, accusing him of leading the country to destitution and collapse by opening up to western ideas.

"This freedom they are trying to impose on us, it is freedom from common sense, it is freedom of the media to insult anybody, to throw dirt in his face. That's not freedom," he said.

Mr Shuvalov said his country needs the smack of firm government, and reminded the audience of what happened to the German-born empress Catherine the Great when she tried to foist freedoms on Russia in the 18th Century: "She was told clearly that if she meddled in these matters, she would be murdered."

This silenced the room.

And the Ukrainians, as Rus, likely also need a firm smacking......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11365497/Kremlin-hard-liner-Russians-would-rather-starve-than-surrender-Putin-to-Western-aggressors.html
 
Reports that the Russian Navy is literally rusting away. I'm sure this is a best/worst case scenario (depending on where you sit), with heroic efforts the Russians should be able to operate more tun 45 ships. (Of course we have few reasons to gloat, our navy has pretty much disintegrated as well, and we don't have enough sailors to man the ships we do have):

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/01/russian-navy-can-only-deploy-45-of-its.html

Russian Navy can only deploy 45 of its 270 ships

The Russian navy is on the edge of a precipitous decline in ship numbers and combat power, owing to huge industrial shortfalls that have been decades in the making. Today the Russian navy possesses around 270 warships including surface combatants, amphibious ships, submarines and auxiliaries. Of the 270 ships, just 125 or so are in a working state. And of those 125, only around 45 are oceangoing surface warships or submarines that are in good shape and deployable.

Most of the Soviet-vintage ships will decommission in the next few years as they became too old to sail safely and economically.

Gorenburg, Harvard Analyst, says the Russian shipbuilding industry could build somewhere between half and 70 percent of the vessels Moscow wants by 2020. “The earliest that Russia could build a new aircraft carrier is 2027, while new destroyers are still on drawing board, with the first unlikely to be commissioned for 10 years.

The U.S. Navy possesses some 290 warships. Pretty much all of them are well-maintained, deployable, oceangoing vessels.

China has plans to grow its navy to 351 ships by 2020 as the Chinese continue to develop their military’s ability to strike global targets.

When Moscow moved to annex Crimea in March, the U.S. Navy promptly sailed its new flattop USS George H.W. Bush into the eastern Mediterranean to reassure NATO governments. Bush‘s battle group included no fewer than 60 high-tech warplanes and several of Washington’s modern Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, armed with missiles and guns for fighting planes, submarines and other ships.

In response, the Kremlin sent in Kuznetsov. The aging carrier — much smaller than Bush — carried a dozen or so Sukhoi fighters. Her six escorts included just a single heavily-armed vessel, the Soviet-vintage nuclear cruiser Pyotr Velikiy. The other five ships included one small amphibious landing ship plus three support tankers and a tugboat.

The tugboat was along for a good reason. On the few occasions when Kuznetsov leaves port, she often promptly breaks down. In 2009, a short circuit sparked a fire that killed one seaman aboard the rusting vessel.

Kuznetsov shadowed Bush in the Mediterranean for a few weeks, then returned home to northern Russia through the English Channel in early May.

Kuznetsov doesn’t have many years left in her. Her boilers are “defective,” according to the trade publication Defense Industry Daily. Yet when she goes to the breakers to be dismantled, Moscow could find it impossible to replace her. For one, the shipyard that built all the Soviet carriers now belongs to Ukraine. It lies just outside of Crimea, and Russian forces did not manage to seize it.

SOURCES - War is Boring, Reuters, Defense Tech
 
Mr Shuvalov said his country needs the smack of firm government, and reminded the audience of what happened to the German-born empress Catherine the Great when she tried to foist freedoms on Russia in the 18th Century: "She was told clearly that if she meddled in these matters, she would be murdered."

This silenced the room.

While not an expert by any means on Russian history, my understanding is that Catherine was known for her reforms to Russian society.
 
S&P cut Russia's credit rating to junk status.  France suggests that, maybe, Russia should see this as a sign to reflect on its continued behaviour in the Ukraine.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-s-sovereign-credit-rating-downgraded-to-below-investment-grade-1.2932136
 
Retired AF Guy said:
While not an expert by any means on Russian history, my understanding is that Catherine was known for her reforms to Russian society.
Among other things ....
stock-vector-jumping-horse-black-white-picture-isolated-on-white-background-vector-illustration-123701008.jpg

>:D

Back to reality, this caught my eye in ITAR-TASS:
The chairman of Russia’s State Duma education committee, Vyacheslav Nikonov, dismissed as nonsense a proposal by a Russian lawmaker that Moscow should ask Germany to pay reparations for the World War II damage.

"That’s nonsense," Nikonov, a prominent Russian political scientist and historian, told TASS in comments to a proposal voiced by Mikhail Degtyaryov, a lawmaker from the Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR).

"The reparations were paid by Germany and mainly East Germany, and this matter has been settled," Nikonov said, adding that Germany stopped paying reparations in 1953.

Russia’s Izvestia daily reported on Tuesday that the lawmakers of the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, are setting up a working group that will calculate the damage inflicted by Germany, which invaded the Soviet Union in 1941.

Degtyaryov, a member of the LDPR’s supreme council, claimed that Germany had paid practically no reparations for the devastation and carnage during World War II, which is known as the Great Patriotic War in Russia.

The lawmaker said although an agreement on cessation of reparations was signed with the German Democratic Republic (East Germany), no such agreements were ever signed with the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) and after the German reunification.

Under the Yalta agreements, the Soviet Union received some German assets, mostly furniture, clothes and manufacturing equipment, from the Soviet sector of control. But this no way compensated for the damage to the USSR’s economy during the war.

( .... )

The lawmaker said the total amount of reparations that Germany has to pay to Russia, which is the legal successor to the USSR, could stand at around €3-4 trillion.

Russian experts say, however, that although claims against Germany are well-grounded, repayment of reparations is possible only upon an interstate agreement and it is practically unrealistic to recover any reparations seventy years after the end of the war.
 
Interesting. Didn't know that the Pentagon had a "Body Leads" team. Wonder if they are hiring?

The Pentagon’s Secret Putin Diagnosis
What the world’s most powerful military learned from watching TV.


http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/putin-autism-pentagon-114937.html?hp=m1#.VNQZtkuRtM8

Do you like watching Internet videos and then drawing broad, sweeping, pseudoscientific conclusions about the people involved? If so, congratulations, you might be qualified to join the Pentagon’s secret team investigating the nonverbal cues of powerful world leaders.

Yesterday, following Freedom of Information Act requests by a group of news organizations including Politico, the Pentagon released two studies, both published here in full for the first time, analyzing Vladimir Putin's inner demons—or at least those inner demons that you can observe from watching a ton of publicly available videos. The release has brought a harsh light to the Office of Net Assessment’s “Body Leads” team and its conclusion diagnosing Putin, the Russian president who likes to take shirtless horseback rides, bunga bunga with his bestie Silvio Berlusconi and invade his neighbors, with autism. Or, actually, according to the report, he probably has autism—they’d need a brain scan to confirm. And that’s harder to do when you’re just watching someone on TV.

“Body Leads” is apparently a Department of Defense-funded project dedicated to writing studies that no one ever reads (at least not until this week) about the “nonverbal communication” (aka movement) of world leaders. Its first study about Putin, “A Technical Report on the Nature of Movement Patterning, the Brain and Decision Making (with gratitude to Vladimir Putin, The President of Russia For helping us understand ……),” was published in 2008 and prepared by “Body Leads” leader Brenda Connors, an expert in “movement patterns analysis” at the Naval War College.

Analysis of Internet videos, Connors writes, “clearly reveals that the Russian President carries a neurological abnormality … identified by leading neuroscientists as Asperger’s Syndrome, an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions.” (As of 2013, Asperger’s syndrome is no longer considered a legitimate diagnosis but rather part of the autism spectrum.)

The autocrat’s “primary form of compensation,” Connors concludes, “is extreme control.” Those who work with him are encouraged to present “an exhaustive fact sheet” when they outline geopolitical recommendations. Because “unsubstantiated recommendations may be lost in his perceptual system that simply has trouble taking in information differently.”

We also learn that Putin did not crawl as a child (have you noticed how he has trouble getting off that judo mat?); that, unlike what Time says, he was probably born with his cold stare; and that his “own sense of self is a work in progress.”

The second study, published two years after the “reset” with Russia when Putin was prime minister and his protégé Dmitry Medvedev was president, is called “The Russian Leadership Tandem in Interaction: Insights From Movement Analysis.” In its 40-or-so pages, we learn essentially that Medvedev does not have autism (but “since adolescence, he has exhibited a physical armoring or disunity which inhibits harmonious movement”) and that Putin is kind of a procrastinator. No study has been conducted since Putin returned to the top office, annexed Crimea and sent his tanks rumbling into Ukraine.

It’s unclear what it costs the Office of Net Assessment to fund “Body Leads,” but we know that since 2009, outside experts working with Connors have received at least $365,000.

Just yesterday, one of the “leading neuroscientists” cited in the 2008 study backed off his initial diagnosis. It turns out that Putin’s tendency to get defensive in large social settings—while it has been observed in individuals who have autism—could also be characteristic of, well, people who get defensive in large social settings.

Even the authors have admitted in the past that this is all a work in progress. But thankfully for them, Putin’s “continuing presence on the world stage provides a rich ongoing basis to confirm previous project hypotheses about his behavior.” Do you think they have all they need now?

“Body Leads” repeatedly calls whatever it does “as potent an instrument as an evolving weapon system.” But if these two particular inquiries into the bane of the West and how he gets off the judo mat were so useful, why has no one important ever seen them? According to his spokesperson, Hagel didn’t. Panetta didn’t. And surely Obama didn’t, or he probably would have handed Putin an exhaustive fact sheet and Ukraine would be a lot better off today.

Both reports are available at the link.
 
I found this Frontline documentary to be a much more meaningful analysis of Putin's agenda. The Cleptocracy that is modern Russia is a construction in which Putin has a deep involvement.

And a very telling line towards the end of the video. Essentially it says Putin needs to hold onto power no matter what the cost. There are too many bodies buried, people with axes to grind, and unpunished crimes for him to ever let go of the reins. The only alternatives are jail or death.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/putins-way/

Oh, and you might get a laugh or two out of the comments section. Particularly Brian Lee. Can you say plant?
 
A good commentary addressing the validity of the report I referenced upthread on the Pentagon's analysis that determined Putin suffers from Asperger's Syndrome.

Putin Has Asperger’s? Don’t Flatter Him.
As the father of a child with the syndrome and a Russia expert, I can tell you the Pentagon report couldn’t be more wrong.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/putin-has-aspergers-dont-flatter-him-114978.html?hp=m1#.VNZLyEuRtM8

A recently-released 2008 Pentagon-backed study has set the Internet aflame with the hypothesis that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin might have Asperger’s syndrome—an autism spectrum disorder characterized by social, behavioral and communicative difficulties. While there’s been a lot of talk in the Twittersphere discussing how ridiculous this “diagnosis” is, there’s also been quite a lot of fairly serious coverage of the report, all of which completely ignores its speculative and unscientific nature. As a Russia watcher with a son diagnosed with Asperger’s—and likely on the spectrum myself—I’m struck by how thoroughly the report and those who give it credence both demean people with Asperger’s and show a complete ignorance of Russian history and current affairs.

In his seminal 1944 study of children who exhibited obsessive interests, a domineering conversational style, clumsiness of movement and difficulty feeling empathy and forming friendships, Viennese child psychologist Dr. Hans Asperger referred to these children as “little professors,” as they could investigate and speak endlessly on those topics that engrossed them. That is true of my son, and of me—both as a child and now as an actual professor of political science. Perhaps it is that obsessiveness that motivated me to look further into this study of Putin.

It is best that Brenda Connors’ paper, “A Technical Report on the Nature of Movement Patterning, the Brain and Decision-Making,” was left to languish in a dusty, Defense Department archive, since it would never had made it through the rigorous peer-review process—either in the social sciences, psychology or the professional medical community.

First: the paper, beyond being sloppily written, full of typos and logical inconsistencies, with entire sections repeated verbatim, has no hypothesis, no claim that can be either substantiated or disproven with evidence. Indeed, that Vladimir Putin has Asperger’s is the foundational assumption at the start of the paper, rather than the conclusion reached at the end. “Vladimir Putin,” she writes, “is our focus because his movement patterns and his microexpressions, analyzed on open source video so clearly reveals that the Russian President carries a neurological abnormality, a profound behavioral challenge identified by leading neuroscientists as Asperger’s Syndrome, an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions. His primary form of compensation is extreme control and this is isomorphically reflected in his decision style and how he governs.”

Beyond beginning with a conclusion, the paper tells us nothing about what these patterns and microexpressions are, how and by whom they’re interpreted and what basis exists for such a diagnosis from such evidence. Well, actually, we are given some evidence: Time’s “Person of the Year” article, which that mentions Putin’s cold, icy stare, his lack of charm, impatience and that he didn’t crack a joke.

And never mind that the main tool the author uses to diagnose the Russian leader, “Movement Pattern Analysis,” was pioneered by a 1930s Hungarian choreographer. Or that a study she uses to interpret invisible thoughts through movement was only published by something called “Dance & Movement Press.”

While not wanting to disparage unconventional research, I would not want to rely on these types of sources for making a serious autism diagnosis.

Still, the report asks us to believe that all of Putin’s political decisions and inclinations are singularly influenced by Asperger’s: his impatience, his wonkish attention to detail, his comfort with routine, his obsession with controlling the day-to-day operation of running a giant country, his “basic personal struggle” to find an inner circle he can trust, seeking glory for himself and the country he leads—all of it because of something that may or may not have happened when young Volodya was a child. This explanation overlooks the tomes of research in sociology, history, political science and Russian studies suggesting that such traits are all manifestations of the sistema of high-level autocratic politics in Russia—before Putin, under Putin and will continue after Putin—regardless of whether he has Asperger’s or not.

But here’s what I worry about most: In recent months, Vladimir Putin has become arguably America’s greatest foreign villain: invading and annexing Crimea, stoking anti-Western xenophobia at home, withstanding international sanctions for fueling the bloody war in Eastern Ukraine that resulted in the tragic downing of MH-17, thousands of Ukrainian deaths and a refugee crisis in the heart of Europe. American public opinion toward Putin has tanked, while experts struggle to explain this new belligerence coming from the closed-off autocrat behind the Kremlin walls. While I’m sure many have (rightly) dismissed the Pentagon study as the unscientific rubbish it is, there are others who are too primed to believe that America’s most vilified, opaque and misunderstood political rival should be singularly motivated by autism—America’s widely feared, opaque and misunderstood neurological condition. Putin is scary. Autism is scary. Put the two together, and you’ve got a story with legs, if not evidence.

It is not just Putin who gets further denigrated in all of this—it is those of us in the special-needs community, too. Sticking through the jargon of this Pentagon report is hurtful, unscientific and downright condescending terminology describing not just the Russian president, but individuals with Asperger’s and autism worldwide: “suffering” the “neurological insult” and “profound handicap” of Asperger’s, Putin is at a “primitive,” “pre-mammalian” and “reptilian stage of development.” Honestly, it’s so thoroughly insulting, the Pentagon should be ashamed to have paid for it.

And ultimately: So what? If, in the end, it turns out that Vladimir Putin is an Aspie—what does it matter? Can someone with Asperger’s not run a country? Certainly it’d be preferable if the Russian Federation were an actual, functioning, democratic federation, with decision-making power spread throughout the system—but it’s not. Russia is—and largely has been—a closed autocracy with most of the levers of power housed in the Kremlin. In that situation, it might actually be preferable to have someone who’s wired to be obsessively dedicated to the work of governance. In a 2008 hot-mic gaffe, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell claimed Janet Napolitano was perfectly suited for the onerous job of Secretary of Homeland Security, “because for that job, you have to have no life. ... She can devote, literally 19-20 hours a day to it.” Rendell’s words were impolite and embarrassing, but they also contained a grain of truth: For tough government jobs, you need people with tremendous dedication. In that way, Asperger’s may be an asset for politicians, entrepreneurs, managers and even professors, for whom dedication, hard work and an almost obsessive attention to detail are job requirements. Though it goes without saying that such a diagnosis neither explains nor excuses invading neighboring countries, annexing their territory or stoking a protracted land war.

At the end of the day, the Pentagon’s Asperger’s report was likely a waste of money that had very little impact on American foreign policy toward Russia. But the media firestorm that it has unleashed tells us that we still have far to go in how we understand autism here at home, and how we treat those of us who have it.

Mark Lawrence Schrad is assistant professor of political science at Villanova University and author of the new book Vodka Politics: Alcohol, Autocracy, and the Secret History of the Russian State.
 
Putin may or may not have a mental deficit.

But he is bright enough to have worked his way out of a communal apartment to achieve the point where the whole world has been backfooted and speculates idly about who he is while worrying about what he will do next.

He is a bastard surrounded by like-minded bastards.
 
Russia Reportedly Getting Bases in an EU State

Presumably, the Russian Air Force will use the airbase “Andreas Papandreou,” along with the international airport of Paphos in the southwest of the island, approximately 50 kilometers from the air base of the British Royal Air Force “Akrotiri.” Additionally, the Russian navy will be able to permanently use the base of Limassol, according to Lenta.Ru.

“The Limassol port borders on the British air base of Akrotiri which serves NATO operations and is also an important hub in the electronic military surveillance system of the alliance,” according to the Global Post.

A Russian naval base 50km from RAF Akrotiri.  Well then.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/russia-military-agreement-in-cyprus-2015-2?utm_content=bufferb0b32&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
 
The worst of economic woes still yet to come?

CNBC

'Storm is coming': Russians still fear crisis
CNBC – 4 hours ago

As Russia's economy continues to struggle amid swingeing sanctions, oil price declines, a weak ruble and rampant inflation, ordinary Russians are feeling the pinch - with some believing the crisis hasn't even started yet.

Russia's economy has been hit hard by the severe decline in global oil prices and sanctions imposed on the country for its part in the Ukraine conflict. This, in turn, has caused the currency to weaken 90 percent against the dollar over the last 12 months, further pushing up the rate of inflation which stands around 11.4 percent.

To top it all off, Russia's economy is expected to enter recession this year, but one Moscow-based economist told CNBC that the crisis hadn't even started yet. "We are on the edge of crisis, we're close but we're not yet there," Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at Russian financial services firm BCS Financial Group, told CNBC. "I can say that we have not yet seen the full effect of the economic crisis - redundancies, closing businesses, rising non-performing loans - we haven't seen those things yet but that's not to say it's not coming," he warned.

Putin says leaders have agreed on Ukraine cease-fire "This is the calm before the storm, we know the storm is coming it just depends on how severe it is." Russia's economy has undergone a radical tranformation from the days when it was a jewel among emerging markets. In 2015, the economy could shrink by as much as 5.5 percent, however, according to ratings agency Moody's, a far cry from the 5.6 percent growth seen back in 2008.

(...SNIPPED)
 
Interesting read on perhaps the inner thinking of the man in charge.

What Putin’s Favorite Guru Tells Us About His Next Target

Russia’s Soviet-style leader is following the advice of the USSR’s most famous dissident.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/vladimir-putin-guru-solzhenitsyn-115088.html#.VOKBnUuRtM8

In a ceremony at the Kremlin in June 2007,  Vladmir Putin awarded the State Prize of the Russian Federation—the highest award in Russia—to Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the Nobel Prize-winning author whose brave exposure of Soviet oppression during the Cold War had made him a revered figure in the West. Both Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin had tried to do give Solzhenitsyn the same prize for the Gulag Archipelago and other famed works but the writer didn’t have much use for them—two leaders who tried to break with the communist and imperialist identity of Russia. Putin was different. Putin, Solzhenitsyn said in an interview shortly before his death in 2007 at age 88, had brought “a slow and gradual restoration” to Russia.

The admiration was mutual. After praising Solzhenitzyn at the Kremlin ceremony for devoting “practically all his life to the Fatherland,” Putin visited the writer at home, telling him how much of his program for Russia was “largely in tune with what Solzhenitsyn has written.” And recent political developments show that Putin indeed has followed many of Solzhenitsyn’s ideas, particularly in the area known as “the near abroad,” or the former USSR.

Indeed, it is one of history’s ironies that the No. 1 internal enemy of the Soviet Union has now become a spiritual guru to a former KGB officer who repeatedly voices nostalgia for Soviet times. For years before his death, the fiercely nationalistic Solzhenitsyn suggested that post-Soviet Russia must include Ukraine. Solzhenitsyn did not see the Ukrainians as a separate nation: “All the talk of a separate Ukrainian people existing since something like the ninth century and possessing its own non-Russian language is recently invented falsehood,” he wrote in a 1990 essay, “Rebuilding Russia: Reflections and Tentative Proposals.”

Putin likewise sees Ukraine as an artificial state: At the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, he told then-President George W. Bush that “Ukraine is not even a state. Part of its territory is in Eastern Europe and the greater part is a gift from us."

Today, with the world’s attention focused on Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, we might look to Solzhenitsyn’s writings for a clue as to where Putin’s next aggressive move might be: Kazakhstan.  Solzhenitsyn saw Kazakhstan in the same light as Ukraine, suggesting that it was not really a separate state and that much of its territory is historically Russian. “Its present huge territory was stitched together by the communists in a completely haphazard fashion: wherever migrating herds made a yearly passage would be called Kazakhstan,” he wrote in his essay. “Today the Kazakhs constitute noticeably less than half the population of the entire inflated territory of Kazakhstan.”

Putin has taken a similar tack toward Kazakhstan publicly. He managed to insult the Kazakhs in the midst of the Ukrainian crisis by saying that their president, Nursultan Nazarbaev, had “created a state on a territory where no state had ever existed.”

Kazakhstan, like Ukraine, has a large Russian population, and as in Ukraine, Russian nationalists view parts of Kazakhstan as Russian land. Kazakhstan, Solzhenitsyn wrote: “had been assembled from southern Siberia and the southern Ural region, plus the sparsely populated central areas which had since that time been transformed and built up by Russians, by inmates of forced-labor camps, and by exiled peoples.”

A passionate patriot as well as a champion of free speech, Solzhenitsyn left a rich, diverse, and controversial legacy. Putin chooses to follow only those ideas that fit his neo-imperialist and reactionary agenda, and naturally they don’t usually include the free-speech part. But Solzhenityzn the nationalist he loves. In December 2014, speaking in the Kremlin about Western sanctions, Putin quoted Solzhenitsyn as saying: "It is time to defend Russia, otherwise they will cow us completely."

In his 1990 essay, written on the eve of the fall of the Soviet Union, Solzhenitsyn suggested that Russia abandon its global agenda and focus, instead, on its internal problems. He called for the immediate separation of Russia from the Soviet Union—a call that was heard by the first president of Russia, Boris Yeltsin, who in December of 1991 signed the Belavezh Accords with Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk and the head of Belarusian parliament, Stanislau Shushkevich, thus hammering the last nail in the coffin of the USSR and leaving Mikhail Gorbachev without a job.

Yet in the same essay, Solzhenitsyn wrote that “the word “Russian” had for centuries embraced Little Russian [Ukrainians], Great Russians, and Belorussians.”He accepted the potential future independence of Ukraine but added: “The area is very heterogenous indeed, and only the local population can determine the fate of a particular locality”–advice that Putin appeared to take to heart in his annexation of Crimea and is currently pursuing in Eastern Ukraine.

Located in the center of Eurasia, Kazakhstan covers a territory larger than Western Europe. It is rich in natural and human resources and, unlike some other post-Soviet states, has maintained relative peace and stability. This is largely due to the political efforts of Nazarbaev, the country’s autocratic ruler, who has demonstrated Machiavellian skills in suppressing the opposition and appeasing external foes. Nazarbaev has been very careful with Putin but the seeds for a future dispute—either political or military—have been planted. Concerned with Russia’s neo-imperialist policies conducted under the pretext of defending the Russkii Mir (the Russian World), the Kazakhs may eventually turn away from Russia, particularly when the era of Nazarbaev ends.

No doubt this will have  political consequences, possibly envolving a military conflict similar to what is happening in Ukraine, where after his annexation of Crimea Putin supplied and funded pro-Russian separatists in the east.

Putin also seems to echo  Solzhenitsyn in his distaste for the West and its mores. In 1978 in a famous speech at Harvard, Solzhenitsyn criticized Western civilization for a lack of courage, its unrestained freedom of media, and its fixation on law and individual rights. The withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Vietnam, according to the Nobel Prize Laureate, was a sign of weakness: “To defend oneself, one must also be ready to die; there is little such readiness in a society raised in the cult of material well-being.” Solzhenitsyn even passed harsh judgment on the Western concept of the rule of law, no doubt pleasing Russia’s future leader: “Legal frames, especially in the United States, are broad enough to encourage not only individual freedom but also certain individual crimes… The letter of the law is too cold and formal to have a beneficial influence on society.”

In spite of his abhorrence of Soviet system, Solzhenitsyn also recommended that Russia not follow the Western path: “Should someone ask me whether I would indicate the West such as it is today as a model to my country, frankly I would have to answer negatively…  The next war (which does not have to be an atomic one and I do not believe it will) may well bury Western civilization forever.”

This reactionary agenda has been meticulously followed by Vladimir Putin. 
 
Russia and "Orthodox Civilization" (to use Samuel Huntington's idea) have a far different outlook than "Western" civilization on things like individual rights, property and the Rule of Law. To some extent, this explains why a man like Alexander Solzhenitsyn could be both a severe critic of the USSR and of the West at the same time.

While I have no definitive answers, it is instructive to read some of Putin's other influences, including Alexander Dugan and Vladimir Solovyov. Russian philosophical thought also seems to be dominated by Eurasianism; the study of Russia's place and influence in Eurasia and the world, which may go some way to explaining Russia's actions in the "Near Beyond" and Russia's former "sphere of influence" (regardless of the fact that most of the nations formerly in that sphere made every effort to exit as soon as possible and practical).

While it would take a long time to study and absorb this, I'm fairly certain the reason we find Putin's motives so opaque is we really don't understand the lenses that he is looking at the world through. If we had a better understanding it would be easier to predict where they Russians think as the way forward, and also to find points of leverage we could use against them when needed.
 
Putin says 'no one' can have military superiority over Russia

The Associated Press
Published Friday, February 20, 2015 12:49PM EST
Last Updated Friday, February 20, 2015 2:35PM EST

MOSCOW -- President Vladimir Putin says he will not allow anyone to get a military advantage over Russia and pledges that the country will never yield to foreign pressure.

In a tough statement that comes amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Putin warned Friday that "no one should have any illusions that it's possible to achieve military superiority over Russia or apply any kind of pressure on it." He added that the nation's military would always have an "adequate response."

The Russian leader vowed that an ambitious military modernization program envisaging the deployment of hundreds of new combat jets, missiles and other weapons would be carried out

Despite an economic downturn caused by low oil prices and Western sanctions over Ukraine, Russia's military budget has risen by one-third this year.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-says-no-one-can-have-military-superiority-over-russia-1.2245701
 
While YMMV with Wikipedia, it is a good basic starting point to begin research. Here is the article on Eurasianism. It is instructive to see how Russians who follow this idea reject the idea and ideals of Western civilization or Russia (even European Russia) being a part of it. Alexander Dugin is a prolific writer on the subject, and also is associated with Putin's inner circle. It is quite probable that Putin and his circle have drunk the kool aide and are motivated at least in part by some of the ideas of Eurasianism.

Neo-Eurasianism[edit]

See also: Foundations of Geopolitics

Former Warsaw Pact countries
Neo-Eurasianism (Russian: неоевразийство) is a Russian school of thought, popularized in Russia during the years leading up to and following the collapse of the Soviet Union, that considers Russia to be culturally closer to Asia than to Western Europe.

The school takes its inspiration from the Eurasianists of the 1920s, notably Prince Nikolai Trubetzkoy and P.N. Savitsky. Lev Gumilev is often cited as the founder of the Neo-Eurasianist movement, and he was quoted as saying that "I am the last of the Eurasianists."[1]

At the same time, major differences have been noted between Gumilev's work and those of the original Eurasianists.[1] Gumilev's work is controversial for its scientific methodology (the use of his own conception of ethnogenesis and the notion of "passionarity"). At any rate, Gumilev's work has been a source of inspiration for the Neo-Eurasianist authors, the most prolific of whom is Aleksandr Dugin.

Gumilev's contribution to Neo-Eurasianism lies in the conclusions he reaches from applying his theory of ethnogenesis: that the Mongol occupation of 1240–1480 AD (known as the "Mongol yoke") had shielded the emergent Russian ethnos from the aggressive neighbor to the West, allowing it to gain time to achieve maturity. The idea of Eurasianism contrasts with Konstantin Leontyev's Byzantism, which is similar in its rejection of the West, but identifies with the Byzantine Empire rather than with Central Asian tribal culture.

Greater Russia[edit]

Not to be confused with Great Russia.

Russia growth 1613–1914
Main article: Greater Russia

The movement is sometimes called the Greater Russia and is described as a political aspiration of pan-Russian nationalists and irredentists to retake some or all of the territories of the other republics of the former Soviet Union and territory of the former Russian Empire and amalgamate them into a single Russian state. Alexander Rutskoy, the Vice President of Russia from 1991–1993, asserted irredentist claims to Narva in Estonia, Crimea in Ukraine, and Ust-Kamenogorsk in Kazakhstan, among other territories.[2] The idea of a Greater Russia still has important relevance in Russian politics, as expanding the Russian state to include Belarus is an important topic in Russian political affairs, as well as the political aspirations of Russian nationalists especially in Moldova and Ukraine to have their people reintegrated with Russia.[3] Before war broke out between Russia and Georgia in 2008, Aleksandr Dugin visited South Ossetia and predicted, "Our troops will occupy the Georgian capital Tbilisi, the entire country, and perhaps even Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula, which is historically part of Russia, anyway."[4] Ossetian president Eduard Kokoity is a Eurasianist and argues that South Ossetia never left the Russian Empire and should be part of Russia.[5]
 
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