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Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis

childs56

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The whole Eastern front was and still considered the delay line for the main force to ramp up🤫. If they can tie the Russians up for 4 days that allows NATO to mobilize and push back.
in reality I think with a conventional war Russia would stomp over Europe in a matter of days as long as they can keep their supply lines open for their hungry artillery.
The west has diddled away actual war fighting assets such as area denial weapons in favor of precision guided less collateral damaging gear.
We need a solid deterrence to Russian rocket systems which have been proven extremely effective in destroying, neutralizing and rendering infective ground forces. How do we counter that, we get our own large stockpile of similar weapons systems.

We might have a superior tank, but they have superior artillery and way more tanks, tank loses to area denial anti tank rockets which they have many of.
If we want to form a actual deterrence to the Russians we have to equip to actually deter them from moving forward. They have superior artillery/ rocket systems. Their EW is extremely effective, maybe more so than ours. But we rely on our gizmos and gadgets so much now we have lost the art of the basics. Even a basic EW in the area would spell disaster for our forces.
How many know how to run wire for a phone system, how many know how to and are proficient with a map and compass. How many of our vehicles and their systems run if hit with a EMP and or interference. You can shut down a modern engine with a few electrical pulses. We in the west rely so heavily on technology to balance the odds that in a perfect war we have stacked the decks against ourselves.
 

The Bread Guy

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... If the Ukraine is going to go under, the Poles will go for broke and look to take back eastern Galicia ...
To give back to Ukraine, or to keep for themselves as a "been there before, wanna be there again" sort of thing? 😉

... they can say that they were simply pushing a force into eastern Galicia to support the existing CDN/US troops already based there on their current training mission with the Ukrainians ...
... and to protect Poles in the area (as a potentially nationalist internal narrative I suspect) - sweet irony, given Russia's use of that one. This narrative could also be handy internally if they wanted to stay in Galicia longer than Ukraine would be comfortable with.

Or maybe I'm too cynical about a part of the world with this much history packed into a relatively small space?

Don't get me wrong - in this scenario, Russia still remains the baddest guy needing to have his nutz kicked hard, no question. Just thinking about older history potentially rearing its ugly head during a ... hectic time like that would be.
 

The Bread Guy

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Weinie

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Spend some time and look at who the current Polish leader is, and more importantly, who is twin brother was and how he and 95 others died.


Poles hate Russians, almost as much as they hate Germans. The Poles are still willingly to go toe to toe against the Russians. Numbers don’t mean a lot to them, it’s about honour, history and religion and the belief that they are on the right side.
And if you have spent any time in the Baltic’s,the Estonians hate Russia even more than the Poles do.Estonia would get rolled over pretty quickly, but I think the counter-insurgency that followed would make Grozny look like a picnic.
 

Good2Golf

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And if you have spent any time in the Baltic’s,the Estonians hate Russia even more than the Poles do.Estonia would get rolled over pretty quickly, but I think the counter-insurgency that followed would make Grozny look like a picnic.
Except Article 5 applies to Estonia…and Latvia. He and his Belarusian pawn could try to also disrupt through Lithuania.

Vlad’s trying to set up another round of ‘looking after ethnic Russians’, like he did with Round 1 in Crimea (and the Donbas), while everyone was distracted with the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Bulgaria and Romania mean that he can’t restrict access to the Black Sea, but I think he’s aiming to landlock the remains of the Ukraine by ‘helping ethnic Russians’ as they extend from Donbas to Moldova.
 

Colin Parkinson

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Estonia would be a good case for a Maginot Line, coupled with the natural water obstacles, it would make a quick move very difficult for the Russians.
 

Altair

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Except Article 5 applies to Estonia…and Latvia. He and his Belarusian pawn could try to also disrupt through Lithuania.

Vlad’s trying to set up another round of ‘looking after ethnic Russians’, like he did with Round 1 in Crimea (and the Donbas), while everyone was distracted with the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Bulgaria and Romania mean that he can’t restrict access to the Black Sea, but I think he’s aiming to landlock the remains of the Ukraine by ‘helping ethnic Russians’ as they extend from Donbas to Moldova.
I don't think Putin wants to go that far. Probably just wants a land connection to the Crimea.

But once bombs bullets and bodies enter the fray, anything can happen. Ukraine could be a harder nut to crack with all the training they have received and equipment. Or Ukraine could collapse and Russia can make additional gains.

The only thing that is clear to me is that whatever happens, Ukraine is on its own.
 

suffolkowner

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And if you have spent any time in the Baltic’s,the Estonians hate Russia even more than the Poles do.Estonia would get rolled over pretty quickly, but I think the counter-insurgency that followed would make Grozny look like a picnic.

The counter is the key. The Russians may and I stress may be able to gain a lot of ground quickly in Poland and Ukraine, but can they hold it? There will be a huge cost to incure at the same time as the Russian population is already decreasing by close to a million people a year with official numbers saying a thousand a day to Covid alone
 

Altair

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The counter is the key. The Russians may and I stress may be able to gain a lot of ground quickly in Poland and Ukraine, but can they hold it? There will be a huge cost to incure at the same time as the Russian population is already decreasing by close to a million people a year with official numbers saying a thousand a day to Covid alone
With 1 million active duty personnel, 2.5 million in reserve, with a population around 144 million, I cannot imagine them having broader manpower issues for any limited engagement.

If things move past a limited engagement, manpower does become an issue, but more in the nukes flying and nuclear winter kind of way more than any attrition.
 

suffolkowner

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With 1 million active duty personnel, 2.5 million in reserve, with a population around 144 million, I cannot imagine them having broader manpower issues for any limited engagement.

If things move past a limited engagement, manpower does become an issue, but more in the nukes flying and nuclear winter kind of way more than any attrition.
I wouldn't call an invasion of Ukraine a limited engagement. Ukraine especially needs a little more time to bolster its defence capabilities but is in a much better situation than they were 7 years ago.

For comparison

Poland 160,000 active, 1.7 million reserve, population of 38 million
Ukraine 255,000 active, 900,000 reserve, population of 41 million

Invading Ukraine would be the worst thing Putin could possibly do in every respect. I think he's just playing games (although I wouldn't bet on it and would plan for the worst. It's how he thinks, he values strength and the image of strength and is probably not understanding why these projections and shows of force are not getting him the respect he covets
 

Altair

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I wouldn't call an invasion of Ukraine a limited engagement. Ukraine especially needs a little more time to bolster its defence capabilities but is in a much better situation than they were 7 years ago.

For comparison

Poland 160,000 active, 1.7 million reserve, population of 38 million
Ukraine 255,000 active, 900,000 reserve, population of 41 million

Invading Ukraine would be the worst thing Putin could possibly do in every respect. I think he's just playing games (although I wouldn't bet on it and would plan for the worst. It's how he thinks, he values strength and the image of strength and is probably not understanding why these projections and shows of force are not getting him the respect he covets
How many troops can Ukraine shove in between Mariupol and Novooleksiivka without creating weak points elsewhere? What are the chances little green men distract Ukraine from Moldova and Belarus?

Invading the southern strip of Ukraine could be the worst thing Putin can do if he loses. If he wins, he's likely the best Russian leader since Catherine the great.
 

Good2Golf

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Crimea went well, in his eyes. His agents also got away with killing 298 people over the Ukraine skies on Malaysian Airways flight 17, so I think he honestly believes the world will cede to his power. Who knows.
 

suffolkowner

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How many troops can Ukraine shove in between Mariupol and Novooleksiivka without creating weak points elsewhere? What are the chances little green men distract Ukraine from Moldova and Belarus?

Invading the southern strip of Ukraine could be the worst thing Putin can do if he loses. If he wins, he's likely the best Russian leader since Catherine the great.
Between Mariupol Novooleksiivka there's well over 30,000 there right now. With another 30,000 on the north-north-west of the Donbas. It's not like Ukraine really needs to guard its western edge or that Russia can mobilize anywhere close to its million active troops to engage Ukraine

I don't see the win there, Russia will be bled dry trying to maintain or establish some sort of vestige of a Novorossiya. This whole endeavour has cost Russia tons.

And yes GtoG, Crimea went very well for Putin and thats the problem the West has to try and take back that inch they gave up before it becomes a mile
 

The Bread Guy

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... This whole endeavour has cost Russia tons ...
... and, to see the glass 1/2 full, I don't think Russia is keen on taking on more subjects and having to maintain them at the relatively modest level Russian subjects are maintained right now.

They're already reportedly pumping a lot of $ into the occupied zone, imagine how much more it would be to do that for more area? With more of a mix of subjects who aren't quite as happy with being more Russian to keep a grip on?
 

Colin Parkinson

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Regardless of what you think of Putin, Crimea is a masterstroke of softpower and threat. It should be a case study for future up and coming military leaders and diplomats. I personally believe Donbass was an opportunistic gamble to exploit the weak kneed response by Obama, who was a dithering idiot on international relations. Putin is ex-KGB, he studies his opponents and attempts to exploit their weakness. He has succeeded in Georgia, Crimea and Syria, his methods are certainly worthy of study.
 

Weinie

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Except Article 5 applies to Estonia…and Latvia. He and his Belarusian pawn could try to also disrupt through Lithuania.

Vlad’s trying to set up another round of ‘looking after ethnic Russians’, like he did with Round 1 in Crimea (and the Donbas), while everyone was distracted with the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Bulgaria and Romania mean that he can’t restrict access to the Black Sea, but I think he’s aiming to landlock the remains of the Ukraine by ‘helping ethnic Russians’ as they extend from Donbas to Moldova.
Except would NATO apply Article 5 in Estonia? We talk tough, but I'm not sure. Especially if Russia invaded and then quickly launched a tac nuke weapon somewhere in a field to show their resolve. I put nothing past Putin at this point. He has nothing to lose, except the modicum of influence that he has now. And more U.S. and European sanctions will likely result in the threat of a majority of Europe losing their natural gas. I see him holding the cards on the strat side, how he finesses them will be interesting to see. And Europe is to blame for allowing this to happen.
 

YZT580

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Except would NATO apply Article 5 in Estonia? We talk tough, but I'm not sure. Especially if Russia invaded and then quickly launched a tac nuke weapon somewhere in a field to show their resolve. I put nothing past Putin at this point. He has nothing to lose, except the modicum of influence that he has now. And more U.S. and European sanctions will likely result in the threat of a majority of Europe losing their natural gas. I see him holding the cards on the strat side, how he finesses them will be interesting to see. And Europe is to blame for allowing this to happen.
Either they would have to or disband, no other choices
 

Good2Golf

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Not sure he wouldn’t use a tac nuke, but that would make him a pariah and screw the Russian people in the mid/long-term.
 

Altair

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Either they would have to or disband, no other choices
Not really. NATO would shrink to its natural red line, the Polish Belarus border.

NATO would fight a war over Poland, as it has been willing to since the last 90 years, but the Baltics? Give NATO the slightest bit of deniability, green men coup or green men popular protests and NATO wont lift a finger.
 

Altair

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Not sure he wouldn’t use a tac nuke, but that would make him a pariah and screw the Russian people in the mid/long-term.
Once the Nuke Genie is out of the lamp, everything is up in the air and nobody can predict what happens. So I agree, it wouldn't happen.
 
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