Oil Hits New Low

[Colin Parkinson]

When the oil and gas stops getting pumped and the supplies of propane suddenly drop, people are suddenly going to see that connection.

 

[MilEME09]

When the oil and gas stops getting pumped and the supplies of propane suddenly drop, people are suddenly going to see that connection.

Not to mention the petrochemical industry,plastics, etc, we may eventually be off oil and gas as a source of fuel, but not as a part of our economy entirely.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... How does an intermittent, small capacity, wind driven generator, stuck up on top of a 100 meter pole compete with a fuel that the vendor is willing to subsidize to take it off their hands?  Even if only for a short term.

Some would say planning for cheap-cheap oil/gas into the long term may be as unwise as planning gas/oil prices being high into the long term, as some have pointed to the Alberta model as an example in previous posts.

When the oil and gas stops getting pumped and the supplies of propane suddenly drop, people are suddenly going to see that connection.

:nod:

 

[Navy_Pete]

Not to mention the petrochemical industry,plastics, etc, we may eventually be off oil and gas as a source of fuel, but not as a part of our economy entirely.

Nope, electric cars are made of sunshine and lollipops with magical green production lines, and solar cells are made of captured moonbeams.  No petrochemicals in giant windturbines either, or any of the computers. Good thing cars will run on dirt roads too, don't want to use asphalt.

 

[Baz]

They are being forced to cut production.  Nothwithstanding the surplus in existence today, there is a good chance that the restart will be abrupt.  I would expect prices will spike quite significantly.

If I had my choice I would be in the alternate energy field; I think algae fuels hold promise, at least as a transition.  I also drive a hybrid, so maybe I'm a closet greenie?  But I'm convinced somebody is going to make a lot if money on the transition, just as the oil companies did transitioning from coal.  There is a good chance the oil companies are the best placed to lead and benefit from that transition.

On a tangential note, speaking of abrupt restart, I think there will be a few other effects.  Futures will soar.  Unemployment will have a sharp decrease due to "make up work," possibly to the point it will drive up wages.  Prices will spike.  All of which means high inflation.  I'm not so happy that because I was unwilling to take risk and my money is in balanced RRSPs.

While I'm rambling, seasonal labour us already starting to become an issue, at least in NS.  If it can't be managed food prices will spike.

 

[stoker dave]

To keep to the defence-related aspect of this, much of the federal government budget depends on a healthy oil and gas sector. 

Between the loss of revenue and the HUGE spending associated with COVID-19, DND should not look forward to any new funding for quite a while. 

 

[Weinie]

I would suggest that as the largest consumer of the discretionary portion of the budget, DND/CAF may be fighting the bean counters in PBO for the foreseeable future just to maintain baseline.

 

[dapaterson]

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) is a third party reviewer and validator of costs & expenses with limited influence and no formal powers; it's the Privy Council Office (PCO), centre of the bureaucracy (informed by Finance and Treasury Board Secretariat) and the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), centre of the political side of the federal government, who are the influencers and deciders, respectively, on what will happen.

 

[Good2Golf]

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) is a third party reviewer and validator of costs & expenses with limited influence and no formal powers; it's the Privy Council Office (PCO), centre of the bureaucracy (informed by Finance and Treasury Board Secretariat) and the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), centre of the political side of the federal government, who are the influencers and deciders, respectively, on what will happen.

Although these days it seems, to quote Robin Thicke, there are ‘blurred lines’ between PMO and PCO.  PBO...definitely a different beast, but one could certainly be forgiven for mistaking PMO and PCO output these days. :nod:

Regards
G2G

 

[Navy_Pete]

Don't forget the Department of Finance; they are generally giant sayers of nay on the procurement side.  They do a lot of (bullshit, context free) financial analysis that feeds into the PMO/PCO.

For example, had to listen to a group talk about the financial trade offs of investing in the auto sector instead of the marine sector (in the context of the NSS). Asked them how we would get ships otherwise, and was told we could go offshore for everything (even existing contracts). Couldn't stop myself from laughing at them at that; not sure how they though any politician would sign off on canceling the existing NSS contracts, or thought it wouldn't also result in massive lawsuits from both shipyards with a pricetag in the billions.

 

[Kirkhill]

They are being forced to cut production.  Nothwithstanding the surplus in existence today, there is a good chance that the restart will be abrupt.  I would expect prices will spike quite significantly.

If I had my choice I would be in the alternate energy field; I think algae fuels hold promise, at least as a transition.  I also drive a hybrid, so maybe I'm a closet greenie?  But I'm convinced somebody is going to make a lot if money on the transition, just as the oil companies did transitioning from coal.  There is a good chance the oil companies are the best placed to lead and benefit from that transition.

On a tangential note, speaking of abrupt restart, I think there will be a few other effects.  Futures will soar.  Unemployment will have a sharp decrease due to "make up work," possibly to the point it will drive up wages.  Prices will spike.  All of which means high inflation.  I'm not so happy that because I was unwilling to take risk and my money is in balanced RRSPs.

While I'm rambling, seasonal labour us already starting to become an issue, at least in NS.  If it can't be managed food prices will spike.

Baz - in my opinion, the problem with most, if not all alternate fuels is a Frenchman name of Lavoisier - matter cannot be created or destroyed but merely changed in form.

Algae is made from carbon.  Just like coal is.  It is just that it is more efficient to burn coal than having to evaporate the 19 kgs of water that clings to each kg of carbon that makes up the core of the algae.

On the other hand, if pumping bugs down a coal shaft, or into oilsands, or down a well, will convert the hydrocarbons into natural gas I am all for it.

https://www.netl.doe.gov/research/Coal/energy-systems/gasification/gasifipedia/biological-coal-gasification

And fuel cells are a possible slow-burn system when combined with natural gas.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181029130939.htm

The lower the cost of carbon the more attractive it becomes even with carbon re-capture systems.  Worst comes to worst we can always grow tomatoes with all the spare CO2 and waste heat.

 

[Baz]

Baz - in my opinion, the problem with most, if not all alternate fuels is a Frenchman name of Lavoisier - matter cannot be created or destroyed but merely changed in form.

Absolutely, neither matter or energy can be created or destroyed, and it is only possible to convert between the two of them using nuclear physics.  And without some breakthrough, fusion isn't going to be the answer for a while.

Algae is made from carbon.  Just like coal is.  It is just that it is more efficient to burn coal than having to evaporate the 19 kgs of water that clings to each kg of carbon that makes up the core of the algae.

Completely agree.  I'm not somebody that thinks we need to jump of an edge.  But we can make steps in the right direction.

The attraction of algae, for me, is that it *is* a carbon sequestration process.  Algae takes in water and CO2, and using the energy of the sun produces a medium complexity hydrocarbon.  Then with heat, pressure, and a few millions of years you get crude.  What I'm hoping is that we can come up with a breed of algae that takes much less heat, pressure, and years.

Without creating something that overruns the planet and turns us into a giant slime ball.

 

[Kirkhill]

Absolutely, neither matter or energy can be created or destroyed, and it is only possible to convert between the two of them using nuclear physics.  And without some breakthrough, fusion isn't going to be the answer for a while.

Completely agree.  I'm not somebody that thinks we need to jump of an edge.  But we can make steps in the right direction.

The attraction of algae, for me, is that it *is* a carbon sequestration process.  Algae takes in water and CO2, and using the energy of the sun produces a medium complexity hydrocarbon.  Then with heat, pressure, and a few millions of years you get crude.  What I'm hoping is that we can come up with a breed of algae that takes much less heat, pressure, and years.

Without creating something that overruns the planet and turns us into a giant slime ball.

Seen Baz.

The concentration, in my view, kind of progresses from plankton, through algae to duckweed, watercress, lettuce, grass, grains, starches and cellulose, vegetable oils, hydrocarbons and coals to graphite and diamonds.  All of which can be oxidized.  Some more efficiently and faster than others due to the water content.
 

A sapper on this board once told me that there were two ways to make a hole - fast and noisy or slow and quiet.  Burning carbon is pretty much the same.  You can do it quick and dirty or slow and clean.  Slow and clean means containing the effort whether it is a hot process or a cold process relying on chemicals and bugs.

That notion of using the microflora in the guts of termites seems to me to be it might be a bit too complicated.  Why not just hire a bunch of termites and offer them room and board and keep their accommodations supplied with oxygen and free of all that waste methane?

As for the burnt methane and the generated CO2 - yep, I can definitely see a place for algae and duckweed for capturing the CO2 and converting it into fuel for cows.

 

[tomahawk6]

Oil as an energy resource is cheaper than any of the green solutions. Someday in the future I think hydrogen may be cheap and safe but then we would need nuclear fusion which may not even be attainable.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Small scale nuclear is the way to go. that would reduce major amounts of pollutants and GHG's. Properly managed, nuclear waste can be easily managed. From my reading France ends up using 97% of a new fuel rod as it gets reprocessed many times over, as opposed to 3% of most US ones. Also most of the radioactive wast is not actually tied to the nuclear industry or is fuel rods.