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Mission Success Probability

PuckChaser

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I've had a HV mission unlocked for about 5 levels. Every item required is at level 5 or higher. The mission proficiency itself is at level 3. However, the success level has only moved from 45% to 55% in those 5 levels. Every other HV mission I've unlocked has had a lot larger increase in probability over the same span of time. The insurgency is locked down, and I've even opened up 2 further AORs since getting access to the HV mission.

Am I missing something here? Or is this mission just supposed to be super hard?
 
Which Mission is it? Might be time for me to delineate the probability formula... Just need to have a few mins to lay it all out.
 
OK, so here's the convoluted formula...

Each mission has a base difficulty rating. That's what you start at. PC, your mission has a base difficulty rating of 90. That's high. The base difficulty is subtracted from 100 to give you a starting point. In this case, 100% success - 90% = 10% chance of success.

From there, we add 2 times your rank, minus the Mission rank. So if you are at Rank 30, and the mission was unlocked at rank 25, you automatically get 2 * 5 = +10% chance. When you first unlock a mission, this value is set to zero, and goes up by 2 for every subsequent promotion.

Next, we add your SA/10. So for every 10 points you throw on SA, your chances of success go up by 1%... for every mission out there.

Following that, we add 1% for every Proficiency level on each piece of required equipment. So if you had Proficiency levels of 2, 5 and 4 for a mission, that gives you a 11% bonus.

Finally, we adjust things... any value below 5% chance is brought up to 5%, to give you a fighting chance. Likewise, any chance above 95% is dropped down to 95%, 'cause you know... Murphy and all.

Now... as an Officer, it all ends there, but if you're an NCO, you get an automatic +10% chance, plus your "cap" moves up from 95% to 98%.

And that's it!
 
Just the base difficulty makes sense why the probability hasn't gone up, thanks for the formula, Mike!
 
Hi Mike, I was wondering about the consecutive successful missions medals. I just achieved 50 but the next step is 100. If officers can only get to 95% success rate then theoretically it is impossible to get, no?

If thats the case maybe make the medal 100 consecutive missions with an average higher than 90%.
 
Level 4: Where's That Horseshoe?
250 Consecutive Successful Missions
Incentive: +80 Max Combat Readiness for 4 days (500)
130 / 250 (52%)

Furthest I got, haven't been able to get there. Once I'm a higher level I might try for it, but not that big a deal now.
 
Somebody out there has a 269 mission success streak, so it is possible. :) Maybe not very likely for Officers, but then they get 20% more Merit Points which will help them achieve other incentives over NCOs.
 
:eek: 269?? 

My luck and 'said' person above appear to have different amount of luck lol  ;)  I failed "travel to Afghanistan" twice in a row (Bad weather I assume).
 
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