San Antonio Express News 1 Feb 09
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
By George Friedman
Doubleday, $25.95 (US)
Review by: Harry Thomas - Express-News Staff Writer
George Friedman, the head of Stratfor, a private-intelligence agency based in Austin, has made a very successful career as a prognosticator. After reviewing his first book, "America's Secret War," in 2004, I signed up for his weekly free e-mail alerts. I found them much more informative in their predictions than most of the columnists on the editorial pages and wire services.
Friedman has finally released his follow-up to that book, and it is even bolder in its fortunetelling. "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" indicates that despite its current fiscal and military crises, America is and will continue to be the strongest nation on the planet for the next 100 years.
Friedman draws on history and geopolitics, and all indicators point to continued U.S. domination — mainly because the American heartland is surrounded by two large oceans and its U.S. Navy has supreme control over the world's seas. The game will change to control of space later this century, but the United States will lead that as well, Friedman argues.
Conflict will continue, but not on the destructive scale seen in the two world wars or even the U.S.-Islamist war. According to Friedman, the United States doesn't really care if it decisively wins a war; its concern is making sure that a coalition of nations doesn't rise to challenge it. And the United States is very good at that.
Friedman sees the U.S.-Islamist war as nearly over, not because Barack Obama is our new president, but because al-Qaida, which wants to create a new Islamic Caliphate, is nearly broken. A new cold war with Russia is on the way in the 2020s, but not on the scale of the previous one.
In the '20s, says Friedman, China will fragment as the interior provinces get poorer and the coastal provinces get richer on world trade. The communist government will try to reinstate control, but the coastal areas will have allies in their global trading partners.
In the '30s, America will see a massive financial crisis exacerbated by the retirement of the baby boomers and a worldwide population shortage. Instead of restricting immigration, Friedman predicts that the United States will start paying people to immigrate to America. He argues that the United States will emerge financially stronger, as it always does after such crises.
The '40s will see the emergence of three new great powers: Japan, Turkey and Poland. Japan will attempt to take control of the Pacific; Turkey will be the strongest power in the Islamic countries; and Poland will scoop up the remnants of Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Russian Federation. American interests will be threatened by the resurgence of Japan and Turkey, leading to the next global war in the '50s.
However, says Friedman, the Third World War won't be fought as the first two were: It will begin with sneak attacks on American military space stations.
America will retaliate with hypersonic weapon strikes on Japanese and Turkish forces. After about two years of fighting, America and its ally Poland will emerge victorious.
After the war, America will enter another major technological surge similar to that of the 1950s, seeking to prevent another war. The biggest benefit will be the creation of space-based energy-collection facilities. Advances in robotics and other technologies will also ensure U.S. dominance.
Friedman classifies the United States as an "immature" nation, akin to an adolescent with an identity crisis. He doesn't mean it as a disparagement; rather, the United States is only just past its 200th birthday, while European and Asian nations have histories dating back for centuries.
Without mentioning names, Friedman picks a few insights from science-fiction and other genres and plugs them into his prognostications. For example, his use of moon rocks as weapons is straight out of Robert A. Heinlein's "The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress." Same with the ideas for solar power from space, with subtle nods to Heinlein and Lee Correy.
Many government agencies and international businesses subscribe to Stratfor's services, mainly because Friedman is good at predicting. "100 Years" doesn't claim to be entirely accurate; Friedman notes that "the closer one gets to details, the more likely one is to be wrong." He doesn't address global warming in the book because he believes that the world's declining population and hunger for alternative energy will render it moot.
Friedman is not pretentious; he's just plugging his geopolitical knowledge into a crystal ball. But considering how right he's been over the years, he's worth listening to.
