Failing Islamic States - 2011

[George Wallace]

An Interactive map of the Region:

http://www.spiegel.de/flash/flash-25185.html

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Looking Ahead for German-Egyptian Relations


Berlin Plans for Post-Mubarak Era

02/01/2011
By Severin Weiland in Berlin
SPIEGEL ONLINE

LINK

After years of turning a blind eye, politicians in Germany are admitting that Berlin did too little to pressure Egypt's authoritarian regime to undertake democratic reforms. President Hosni Mubarak had long been considered a guarantor of peace in the Middle East. Now the German political establishment is considering what the next Egyptian government might bring.

Hosni Mubarak admires Germany. The 82-year-old Egyptian president has made a number of official visits, meeting with the German president, the chancellor and the foreign minister. Notably, he has also come here twice for operations in German hospitals. In March, he had his gall bladder operated on in Heidelberg, just one day after meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel.

It was an expression of the trust he has -- in German medicine and in the country itself.

For many years, German-Egyptian relations appeared to have few problems. Above all, they were stable. Because of its strategic situation in the Middle East, Egypt has long been a focal point of German development policy.

Mubarak may have ruled his country in an authoritarian manner, but many politicians in Germany considered that to be a lesser evil. They talked about the issue of human rights violations, as was the case during Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle's first meeting with Mubarak last year in Cairo. But to most Western diplomats, the Mubarak system was considered a bulwark against fundamentalist Islam. And Egypt is the only Arab state that has signed a peace treaty with Israel. In a powder keg region, it has been one of the most reliable and calculable powers.

West Faces Shift in Policy

Now, though, the man has ruled the country for 30 years is at risk of getting deposed. Nor can one rule out the possibility any longer that he may soon be forced into exile as recently happened to Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. And that leaves Germany -- and the entire West -- facing a significant shift in its foreign policy. The mass protests, which are set to grow with calls for a million strong march on Tuesday, have forced Western leaders to strike a new note. Over the weekend, Chancellor Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron called on Mubarak to embark on a process of transformation "which should be reflected in a broad-based government and in free and fair elections."

German politicians are trying to find a balance between dealing with a Mubarak government that is still in power and an opposition that is becoming more open and self-confident.

"We are not standing on a domestic policy side, but rather on the side of values, human rights, democracy, civil rights, freedom of assembly, freedom of opinion and freedom of the press," said Westerwelle, who is currently visiting Israel. The foreign minister is there for long-planned German-Israeli government consultations.

The situation in the region, which could have serious implications for Israel's security if Mubarak falls, has been a major topic in talks between Westerwelle, Merkel and their Israeli colleagues. Both Netanyahu and Merkel expressed their concern about the developments after a meeting on Monday.

"In a state of chaos, an organized Islamic group can take over a country. It has happened. It happened in Iran," Netanyahu said. "A takeover of oppressive regimes of extreme Islam violates human rights, grinds them to dust … and in parallel also poses a terrible danger to peace and stability."

Merkel urged Mubarak to show restraint. "The same applies here as we would say to any other country: Freedom of speech is necessary. Peaceful treatment of demonstrators is necessary. We must demand that and we will continue to demand that," she said.

Perceived Stability on the Nile

Foreign policy experts in Germany's main political parties in Berlin are taking a very self-critical view this week of past relations with Egypt.

"German politicians also supported authoritarian regimes like Mubarak's because of a perceived stability -- out of fear of a possible accession to power by Islamic forces," said Kerstin Müller, a former deputy minister in the German Foreign Ministry with the Green Party. "As part of that, they turned a blind eye when the regime committed serious human rights violations."

Ruprecht Polenz, the head of the foreign affairs committee in the German federal parliament with Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, told SPIEGEL ONLINE: "Mentions of reforms and contempt for human rights always played a role in Germany-Egyptian talks -- even if, unfortunately, there were no obvious improvements in the reality."

So what will happen now? "No matter what, the European governments and the European Union must agree to new policies," said Rolf Mützenich, the foreign policy spokesman in parliament for the center-left Social Democratic Party. But he also added that conclusions shouldn't be drawn too quickly. "We still don't know what consequences the popular uprisings in the individual countries will have," he said.

But there's a bigger fear lurking in the back of politicians' minds: What will happen if the Islamist movement capitalizes on the protests? Or if it becomes part of the next government? If the West calls for democratic elections, then it must also be prepared to accept the results, insofar as they are free and fair, said Mützenich.

"The attitude during the last election in the Palestinian territories did serious damage to our image in the Arab nations," the Social Democrat said, referring to the electoral victory by the radical Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip in 2006, which most governments in the West refused to accept. "That's why we should not discriminate against this popular uprising by suggesting it is Islamically motivated," he advised.

'The Maladministration Cannot Be Eliminated Overnight'

But many German politicians are already considering a worst-case scenario in which Islamic forces will come to power after Mubarak. "A government in Egypt that could possibly include the Muslim Brotherhood must accept the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty and use it as its working basis," the Green Party's Müller said.

Christian Democrat Polenz said he would like to see the West reiterate to Egypt that the country must urgently undertake democratic reforms and adopt the rule of law.

The West should also offer support, he added: "Under three conditions: a peaceful transition, free and fair elections and press -- and freedom of speech." In that sense, he said, the West should actively encourage Islamist parties to participate in the political process in Egypt, with the precondition that they are willing to abide by the law and agree to eschew violence and allow themselves to be voted out of office if that is the will of voters.

"Why is that so important?" Polenz said. "Because it is the only way that Islamist parties, who have rightfully criticized the authoritarian regime, can be integrated into the process."

If the Islamist parties were closed out of the process, he believes, then their criticism in the future would be directed at the democratic system. "Ultimately," the CDU politician says, looking ahead to the post-Mubarak era, "the maladministration cannot be eliminated overnight."

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[OldSolduer]

Motivation:

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

A Million-Strong Festival for Freedom


Masses Celebrate Mubarak's Waning Power

02/01/2011
By Matthias Gebauer in Cairo
SPIEGEL ONLINE

LINK

Tuesday saw the largest protests yet in Cairo as tens of thousands took to the streets demanding that President Hosni Mubarak step down. As demonstrators partied in the city center, the opposition vowed not to talk to the regime before Mubarak leaves the country.

Was it hundreds of thousands? A half-million? Or even more? On Tuesday, no one in the Egyptian capital really cared to guess how many people had turned out; estimates put the figure as high as 2 million.

The vast number of people had already begun gathering by mid-day with their giant placards on central Cairo's Tahrir (Liberation) Square. The crowd grew by the hour, with ever more protesters arriving at the scene. They came in groups, many holding posters or signs, going straight to the heart of their revolution. This has to do with everything, they said, and they had one goal: to depose President Hosni Mubarak.

"We can sense the smell of freedom, and no more compromises are possible with Mubarak," said furniture-shop owner Mustafa Amer. "And we will stay as long as it takes for Mubarak to finally leave the country." Amer said it didn't matter to him if a million people had been there or 500,000.

The "march of millions," served as a powerful indicator of just how strong opposition to the president has grown and how weak Mubarak himself has become. In a matter of only days, a full popular movement has grown out of protests that commenced last week with tens of thousands of mostly young male students. On Tuesday, old men, supported by younger ones, struggled to make their way to a square overflowing with people. Women with children also joined in. Entire families came to protest against Egypt's man in power. One day after the army announced it would not use force against the protesters, the president, after 30 years in power, finds himself in a weaker position and more isolated than ever before.

The protesters' dream, at least their first one, appeared to have been fulfilled on Tuesday. The eroding state machinery was unable to stop them -- and that despite tremendous effort. The government again cut access to the Internet in Egypt, it stopped trains traveling to Cairo and it blocked roadways leading into the capital city. In the end, though, the protesters succeeded in sending an impressive signal out with the mass event -- both to their own country and to the world.

Now the protesters are hoping that Mubarak will come to fear the opposition and that the balance of power has shifted in their favor. "Now it is just a matter of time," said Safwan Kehr. The university professor had come to Tahrir Square together with his daughter Nadean and a friend. "The sooner he goes, the faster we will be able to finally transform this country," he said.

A Kind of Freedom Festival

It is important to the demonstrators that their voices are heard abroad. Again and again, they approach foreign reporters asking them for support. "Please tell the truth about how many of us there are here," one young man beseeches. He had just seen the official version of events on state television. Instead of showing video of the masses gathered on Tahrir Square, the channel preferred to broadcast images from pro-Mubarak rallies throughout much of the day. In the afternoon, state TV did finally mention that there had been protests in Cairo, but said only 5,000 people had participated. While such reporting isn't likely to weaken the demonstrations, it does show to what degree Mubarak's regime is still willing to ignore reality.

Those on Liberation Square, for their part, are already celebrating as though Mubarak was gone. The bloody conflicts of earlier in the week have given way to a kind of freedom festival. There are men distributing sesame breads and dates, others deliver package after package of bottled water. Volunteers collect the waste. "Give a donation for the president," says one of the men, carrying a plastic garbage bag. "We'll soon be giving him all the garbage as a going-away present." Just a few days ago, such a joke would have been cause for arrest and abuse. On Tuesday, laughter was the only response.

The remnants of state power spent the day circling low over the square, in the form of a helicopter. The demonstrators below shook their fists and shouted "Go away! Go away!" whenever the pilot passed over. The chant has become something of a slogan for the protest movement, and most often it is reserved for Mubarak. The military, which has parked tanks on the square, has essentially become part of the revolt. The soldiers on duty are primarily focused on crowd control and on searching the arriving protesters for weapons.

'Mubarak No Longer Has a Future'

While the people of Cairo chant in the city streets, opposition leaders have indicated that they will not enter into a compromise deal with Mubarak. Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who is seen as a likely leader of a transitional government, said on Tuesday that there would be no talks with the current regime before Mubarak leaves the country. The crowds on Liberation Square cheered his remarks. Not long later, the head of the influential opposition group Muslim Brotherhood took to the airwaves. He too said that Mubarak's departure is the precondition for dialogue with the regime.

The resistance leaders' hardline stance mean that Mubarak's stratagem -- perhaps his last -- has conclusively failed. Just hours before the beginning of the giant demo, Mubarak had his newly appointed vice president, Omar Suleiman, address the country on state TV. Suleiman said late on Monday evening that Mubarak had authorized him to hold talks with all political groups. He even announced far-reaching changes to the Egyptian constitution. But his announcement, which would have caused a sensation had it been made before the revolution in Tunisia, came much too late.

Probably the most important message from Tuesday's protests was that the popular uprising is now unstoppable. "A few days ago, I might have agreed to a compromise," one demonstrator told SPIEGEL ONLINE. "But when I saw the crowds this morning, I understood that Mubarak no longer has a future."

The president himself is keeping a very low profile. Even his appearance on state television offers no proof that he is still in Cairo. Some observers believe that the once omnipotent ruler is already in Sharm el-Sheikh on the Red Sea. From there, it would only be a short boat ride to Saudi Arabia, where he could claim asylum.

A Swift Exit?

But nobody can predict exactly what Mubarak's demise might look like. The news that the president has left the country could be broadcast at any minute. After Tuesday's events, the US can no longer ignore the massive protests, even if up until now it was still clearly hoping to arrange a dignified exit for its close ally Mubarak, possibly through swift new elections without his participation. One of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's top diplomats is currently negotiating behind the scenes, after being hastily flown in. But the US State Department can hardly recommend any other course of action for Mubarak than a swift departure.

The demonstrators, for their part, plan to continue. Admittedly, the planned march to the presidential palace did not take place on Tuesday, at least not before sundown. Nevertheless, Tahrir Square will remain in the hands of the opposition. By Friday at the latest, the protesters want to show their power by marching to Mubarak's stronghold -- assuming the despot hasn't thrown in the towel by then

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Middle East

Egypt’s Economy Is Near Paralysis

By NICHOLAS KULISH
Published: January 31, 2011
The New York Times

LINK

ALEXANDRIA, Egypt — Egypt’s economy approached paralysis on Monday as foreign commerce, tourism and banking all but halted, placing acute pressure on President Hosni Mubarak to find a way out of the weeklong chaos.

International companies closed plants and sent workers home or out of the country; food staples went undelivered to stores; and banks remained closed during a week when many Egyptians, who are routinely paid monthly, would receive their paychecks.

A major ratings agency cut the country’s bond rating, while shortages led to rising prices. And poorer Egyptians told of cutting back to just two meals a day to cope.

The protests’ crippling effects could give Mr. Mubarak and his new cabinet perhaps only a few weeks to re-establish order before shortages, rising unemployment and a deep crisis set in, economists said.

“It might give impetus to more demonstrations and more riots in the streets,” said Ahmed Galal of the Economic Research Forum in Cairo. “I think the challenge is going to be in the next couple of weeks, and it is going to mount in a week or two.”

Average citizens seemed to agree.

“We can take this for one more week,” said Samih Hammam, 38, a teacher with a wife and three children who should have been paid on Jan. 25 and is still waiting. “After this, it’s going to create more chaos and problems, more violent reactions.”

Entrenched corruption, the depredations of police forces and demands for free elections have all helped drive the protest movement, but for many Egyptians, rising prices and unemployment were the strongest motivations to stand up to the government. Now even many of those with jobs are not being paid, adding an edge of desperation to the rage.

“I’m going to try to eat the cheapest foods, ful and falafel,” said Azza Aladin, 47. Ful is a simple dish of beans. A single mother with six children, Ms. Aladin said she had been forced to cut out a meal a day.

Many Egyptians are paid on the last or the first day of the month, and their wages often come in cash-filled envelopes. With A.T.M.’s empty and banks closed, many bosses just cannot pay.

Muhammad Soudan, 54, had a banner on his car at Monday’s protest in Alexandria that read “I would rather live hungry than die in fear.” It is not an abstract notion here.

Mr. Soudan runs a construction company that employs 35 people. To make payroll with the banks closed, he borrowed money from friends. But his business has larger problems. He is unable to get building materials he needs from abroad, and he expects many of the larger companies he relies on for business to cut back. “If it goes on like this, my company is going to die,” Mr. Soudan said.

The American giants Coca-Cola and General Motors are pulling back or pulling out, as are German companies like Volkswagen and the retailer Metro, as well as the Danish shipping and oil company A. P. Moller-Maersk.

“Tourists are flying away; the capital is going to fly away as well,” said Gehan Saleh, an economist at the Arab Academy for Science and Technology here. With the stock market down roughly 17 percent since Jan. 24, people will move their savings into safe havens, turning nest eggs into dollars or euros, Ms. Saleh said.

Ms. Saleh, a 39-year-old mother of four children, was herself facing an increasingly common problem for Egyptians: getting cash. With the grocery store refusing to take credit cards, she tried the four A.T.M.’s in her neighborhood and found them all empty, leaving her with no money in hand.

Alaa Ezz, secretary general of the Confederation of Egyptian European Business Associations here, said: “It’s not like in Europe; we walk around here with wads of cash in our pockets. Very few people use credit cards or A.T.M. cards. We’re a cash society.”

Large retailers, meanwhile, are worrying about where to go with their huge stockpiles of cash from the panic buying that has cleared the shelves, with no banks to take these small fortunes at a moment when there are no police on the streets.

The bank closings were also affecting international business, Mr. Ezz said, with importers unable to get letters of credit. He said, however, that the subsidized food supply would be ensured by strategic stockpiles and that the government was moving to get curfew exemptions for deliveries of many necessities.

The Suez Canal, a vital transit route for oil to Europe, remained open on Monday. And although international oil companies are closing local offices, evacuating nonessential workers and family dependents and telling their Egyptian employees to stay home, there has been little impact so far on exploration and production activities centered in the Gulf of Suez, the Western Desert and the Nile Delta.

One exception is Statoil, a Norwegian company, which has halted offshore drilling in the El Dabaa area west of the Nile Delta.

Fuel deliveries were not arriving at many gas stations in Alexandria. Lines of cars at those that still had fuel, long on Sunday, were growing even longer on Monday; four lines stretched out of one station and snarled traffic on the coastal road.

Between curfews, checkpoints of armed civilians and fears of looting, transportation has emerged as a major problem. Ahmed Hassan, whose distribution company serves major consumer-goods companies like Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, said he was not letting any of his 350 trucks nationwide onto the roads.

“We cannot let our people jeopardize their lives,” Mr. Hassan said. Instead his workers were taking shifts to ensure that all facilities and vehicles were guarded 24 hours a day against looters and thieves.

According to Mr. Hassan, Coca-Cola had inquired about delivering water for its Dasani brand, while Procter & Gamble was concerned about the need for Pampers diapers, but he said it could not be done. “There are misunderstandings, people are getting excited, some of them have guns,” he said. “My first responsibility is to my workers.”

The disruptions have made life harder for Egyptians already struggling to get by. Ahmad Ismail, 25, a real estate agent, supports his parents. He said safety concerns and disruptions to phone and Internet services meant he had not worked since Friday, and like others had not received his paycheck.

“Things are tough, but I’m more concerned about getting this government out of power,” he said. “We can get by on less.”


David D. Kirkpatrick contributed reporting from Cairo, and Clifford Krauss from Houston.

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Europe & the World

Markets


Egyptian crisis strikes Central Europe

presseurop

LINK


“Chaos in Egypt: markets fall as oil rises,” reports Hospodářské noviny. The daily explains that markets in Central and Eastern Europe, which investors view as still in the process of development and thus more vulnerable, have been hard-hit by the Egyptian crisis. As a result, “the Czech crown and Hungarian forint have begun to slide.” Investors  are panicking because the chaos in Egypt could shut down the Suez Canal, which is the conduit for 2.6% of the world’s oil production. That may not seem like a lot, notes Hospodářské noviny, but the canal remains very important to Europe. At more than 100 dollars a barrel, oil prices have reached a two-year high. A global increase in the cost of food and textiles has also been forecast, because Egypt is the world’s main wheat importer and one of its principle exporters of cotton.

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[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Asia Pacific

Why a nervous China aims to shield citizens from Egypt news

By Peter Ford, Staff writer / February 1, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor

LINK

China has limited coverage of the Egypt protest to its Xinhua news service and warned last week that websites that did not censor comments about Egypt would be 'shut down by force.'

Beijing

Like governments around the world, China’s rulers are watching the unrest in Egypt with bated breath – nervous about the outcome, but powerless to affect it.

“China is worried about chaos, because that is bad for Egypt and for other countries,” says Yin Gang, a Middle East expert at the China Academy of Social Sciences. “China’s concern is the same as America’s … but China has very little influence in the Middle East.”

Beijing has been studiously neutral in the face of mass demonstrations in Cairo and other Egyptian cities calling for President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation.

Asked on Tuesday for China’s views on the new Egyptian government that has promised economic and political reforms, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei would say only that “we hope that Egypt will return to stability and normal order as soon as possible.”

The Chinese authorities are even more concerned about preserving stability and normal order at home. Apparently fearing that Chinese citizens be inspired by Egyptian protesters, the government has issued strict orders limiting press coverage of the unrest.

“All media nationwide must use Xinhua’s reporting on the Egyptian riots,” read a directive issued last Friday, referring to the state run Xinhua news agency. “It is strictly forbidden to translate foreign media coverage,” the order said, warning that websites that did not censor comments about Egypt would be “shut down by force.”

“One major reason for the censorship is that Chinese officials do not know the direction of the protests,” says Russell Leigh Moses, a political analyst in Beijing. “Reporting depends almost entirely on direction from the leadership and uncertainty never produces consensus in Beijing.”

“You can see from the media that China is keeping a very low-key tone on this issue, and not giving it a lot of coverage,” says Prof. Yin. “That shows the government’s intentions.”

“They are nervous,” says Xiao Qiang, who monitors the Chinese Internet at the University of California at Berkeley. “They are more than usually tight, to ensure that only the Xinhua version is there.”

One Twitter-like microblog site did not return results for a search of “Egypt” on Tuesday, but otherwise the government order appeared to be only erratically imposed. The Hong Kong based Phoenix TV network, for example, which can be seen on the mainland but which is not subject to Beijing’s censorship, has been broadcasting live from Cairo without interference.

Almost all of the news reports on Internet news portals is coming from Xinhua, which provides straightforward and neutral news stories, often focusing on the plight of hundreds of Chinese citizens trapped at Cairo airport. But reader comments on those stories were not being deleted.

Many of those comments seemed directed as much at the political situation in China as at events in Egypt. “Don’t look down at ordinary people: history is written by them,” read one comment on the popular Netease portal. “Even though a struggle does some damage for a while, it can make the government cleaner and more transparent in the long run and push democratization,” suggested another.

Though China does not consider that it has any strategic interests in the Middle East to match US concerns, it does depend on the region for nearly half of its imported oil and is thus anxious that the political upheaval in Tunisia and Egypt should not spread to oil producing nations.

At the same time, China’s trade with Egypt has increased threefold over the past five years to reach $6.96 billion in 2010, making Egypt China’s second-largest trading partner in Africa and the Middle East, excluding its oil suppliers.

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[The Bread Guy]

Yemen parliament to convene ahead of mass protest
AFP, 1 Feb 11
Article link

SANAA — Yemen's president, facing protests demanding his resignation, has called a meeting of the country's parliament and consultative council for Wednesday, an official said.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh is expected to address the special meeting ahead of a "day of rage" that civil society organisations have called for Thursday.

The official gave no details on the expected substance of Saleh's remarks.

Facing protests that have multiplied since the mid-January ouster of Tunisia's president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali following a wave of demonstrations there, Saleh has taken measures aimed at soothing popular discontent.

On Monday, he ordered the creation of a fund to employ university graduates and extend social security coverage, the official Saba news agency reported.

The fund aims to help 25 percent of university graduates facing unemployment this year and the remainder in the future. But the agency did not specify the budget allocated to the fund or how graduates would be employed.

Unemployment was a key issue in the protests that toppled Ben Ali.

Saleh also decided to exempt university students from the rest of their tuition fees for this academic year, and charged the high council of universities to reduce the cost of a degree, Saba said.

And he directed that "social security services be extended to 500,000 more people from needy families," Saba said ....

More on link, in Yemen News Agency statement here and via Wall Street Journal here.

 

[Redeye]

CNN is now reporting a speech from Mubarak should be aired soon - announcing he will not run for office again.  I don't think that'll help - but it's a start.

 

[OldSolduer]

The danger is the radical lot who may try to hijack any election and impose their version of Sharia law. Maybe the demographics and relative sophistication of the Egyptian people can prevent this.

But I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Initial reports of Mubarak's speech:

President Hosni Mubarak announced Tuesday that he will step down in September when a new Egyptian president is elected.

His announcement was made as protesters in Cairo's main Tahrir Square sat by the thousands on the ground in front of a giant TV hung up between lampposts, waiting for Mr. Mubarak's late-night address. “Oh God, Oh God, let tonight be his night,” many chanted. The throngs who have been protesting day after day say they will accept nothing short of Mubarak's immediate departure.

The next presidential election is scheduled for September. Until now, officials had indicated Mr. Mubarak, 82, would likely run for a sixth six-year term of office ....

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak said on Tuesday he would not run for the presidency again and would work in the last months of his term to allow the transfer of power.

He said the main priority was the stability of the nation to allow the transfer of power. A presidential election is due in September.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has just indicated in a televised speech that he will not seek reelection, after eight days of protests over his 30-year rule.

"I have spent enough time serving Egypt," Mubarak said in his second public address since the protests erupted. He said that over the next few months, "the remaining of my current reign, I will work very hard to carry out all the necessary measures to transfer power."

He added, "I have initated the formation of a new government with new priorities and initiatives which will respond to our young people's demands and their anxieties." ....

Some posting to Twitter while listening to the speech say he said something to the effect of, "I'll die on the soil of Egypt."  If he did say that, he'd better be careful what he wishes for.

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Middle East

Egyptian president says he won't seek re-election

01/02/2011 4:43:20 PM
CTV.ca News Staff

LINK

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak says he will not seek re-election.

Mubarak made the announcement Tuesday evening on state television after eight days of protest culminated with 250,000 people in the streets today demanding his resignation.

However, the 82-year-old stated his intention to finish the remainder of his presidential term, which ends in September.

"My priority now is for a peaceful transfer of power to whoever the people choose in the election," he said. "In all sincerity, regardless of the current circumstances, I never intended to be a candidate for another term."

A special envoy dispatched from Washington by President Barack Obama told Mubarak that the U.S. sees his presidency at an end and urged him to prepare for a transition to democratic elections.

A quarter of a million people jammed into a public square in central Cairo Tuesday, the biggest protest yet, and many broke out in celebration after the announcement.

But CTV's National Affairs correspondent Lisa LaFlamme said the overall reaction from the crowd was mixed, as many wanted Mubarak to step down immediately.

"People are having mixed reactions. There are those obviously who wanted him to step down right now," she said from Cairo. "And there are those who are actually more measured, saying ‘We can wait. We waited 30 years for change. We've walked these streets for eight days, we can wait a few months longer.'"

LaFlamme said that the crowd did not dissipate after Mubarak's speech and in fact, appeared to be growing.

The sprawling crowd in Tahrir Square includes teachers, students, professionals and Egypt's urban poor, all of whom are united in their desire to see the end of the three-decades long Mubarak regime.

"This is the end for him. It's time," said Musab Galal, a 23-year-old university graduate who travelled to Cairo from the Nile Delta city of Menoufiya.

The protesters on the streets of Cairo said they wanted Mubarak to step down on account of the poverty, corruption and lack of freedoms that have plagued the Egyptian people during his 30-year rule.

A coalition of opposition groups had demanded the Egyptian leader resign by Friday, and the groups are said to be in negotiations to reach joint demands for his regime.

In Tahrir Square, protesters chanted for their desire "to bring down" Mubarak's regime.

Two dummies representing Mubarak were hung from traffic lights in the square. On their chests was a message: "We want to put the murderous president on trial."

The dummies were also covered with the Star of David, an apparent allusion to the accusation of many protesters that Mubarak is too closely tied to Israel.

Shadi Hamid, the director of research at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar, said other Arab countries are watching what is happening in Egypt closely -- especially after a similar bout of protests ousted the leader of Tunisia last month.

"What we're seeing here is really a region-wide protest movement and as for who is next, all bets are off," Hamid told CTV News Channel from Qatar on Tuesday.

"The important thing here is that Arabs have discovered that they have the power to take matters into their own hands and that if enough of them go onto the streets, they can topple their own regimes."

In nearby Jordan, King Abdullah II fired his own government Tuesday in the wake of protests across his country demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai.

Dialogue with Mubarak regime

Newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman went on television Tuesday to state an offer to have a dialogue with the "political forces" urging change in Egypt.

Abu'l-Ela Madi, a spokesperson for one of the participating opposition groups, al-Wasat, said there was also discussion Tuesday about whether Mohamed ElBaradei -- the former head of the UN nuclear watchdog and pro-democracy advocate -- should act as opposition spokesperson.

Ashraf Hegazy, the executive director of the Dubai Initiative at Harvard University, said that ElBaradei remains a bit of an "unknown quantity" in Egyptian politics, as he has spent much of his adult life outside of his birth country.

But Hegazy said that ElBaradei is likely the best person to help build bridges between opposition groups who need to unite in their push for change.

"There are so many factions with a lot of different ideologies and all of them have some level of support in the country," Hegazy told CTV's Canada AM during a Tuesday morning interview from Newton, Mass.

"So for them to build a coalition to lead the country, they really need someone who is somewhat of an outsider that they can agree on."

Army won't harm protesters

Eight days into a period of daily protests, the people pushing for change have won the support of the national army, which has said it will not fire on protesters.

Military spokesman Ismail Etman said Tuesday that "the freedom of expression is guaranteed" for everyone taking part in the protests.

Seemungal said the army is trying to ensure that the Tahrir Square protests remain safe and non-violent.

"They are forcing people through choke-points, so it takes a long time to get into the square, but what they are trying to do is make sure that people aren't coming in with weapons and that they can guarantee it's a peaceful demonstration," Seemungal told CTV's Canada AM from Cairo on Tuesday.

The protesters also appear to be committed to keeping violence out of their demonstrations.

Volunteers with shirts reading "Security of the People" said they were on the lookout for government infiltrators who could attempt to instigate violence.

"We will throw out anyone who tries to create trouble," one of the volunteers said over a loudspeaker.

Outside of Tahrir Square, schools, banks and the stock market remained closed for the third straight day.

There is no bus service between cities, leaving protesters with the challenges of finding private transportation into Cairo.

Abdel Rahman Fathi, 25, said his friends were using private cars to make their way to the mass of protesters in Tahrir Square.

"The goal is to oust the regime," he said. "Every day we try to increase the number."

With files from The Associated Press

More on LINK

 

[The Bread Guy]

..... attached.

 

[The Bread Guy]

.... on Egypt:

“Following President Mubarak’s announcement today that he will not seek re-election, Canada reiterates its support for the Egyptian people as they transition to new leadership and a promising future.

“Canada supports universal values – including freedom, democracy and justice – and the right to the freedom of assembly, speech and information. As Egypt moves towards new leadership, we encourage all parties to work together to ensure an orderly transition toward a free and vibrant society in which all Egyptians are able to enjoy these rights and freedoms – not a transition that leads to violence, instability and extremism.

“We commend the many groups, such as the Egyptian military, who have worked hard to support freedom of assembly and to minimize violence during recent demonstrations. We stand by the people of Egypt, young Egyptians in particular, for their steadfast support for the fundamental values that Canadians profoundly share with them.

“We also extend our condolences to the families and friends of those who were killed or injured during recent events.

“We urge all parties in Egypt to renounce violence and allow peaceful and meaningful dialogue between the people and government to address political, economic and social concerns. This dialogue should lead to free and fair elections and a government that supports universal values.”

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

World / Middle East

Unmoved by Mubarak's speech, Egyptian protesters insist: 'He must leave.'

By Kristen Chick, Correspondent / February 1, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor

LINK


Responding to Egyptian President Mubarak's offer to not run for reelection in September, one protester in Cairo's Tahrir Square said: 'Thirty years of injustice is enough. We don’t need eight more months.'

Cairo

Egyptians wholeheartedly rejected President Hosni Mubarak’s announcement Tuesday evening that he will not run for reelection in September, continuing to demand that he step down immediately.

A roar of anger went up from the thousands of people in central Cairo’s Tahrir Square even before the president had finished his address, offering an immediate answer to an unprecedented offer from an autocrat who has ruled for almost 30 years with few concession to the people. They shook their shoes at a large screen where the president's image was broadcast, screaming “Get out! Get out!”

“I was angry, but now I am enraged,” said Abdullah Rawaq, shouting to be heard amid a crowd chanting: “He must go! We will not go!”

“Only one thing will make the anger go away: His immediate withdrawal. He must leave. That is the only thing that will make these people go back to their homes," said Mr. Rawaq, a middle-aged man.

The president’s move appeared a desperate attempt to stop the week of growing protests that have brought the nation’s capital and its economy to a standstill. Inspired by Tunisia’s popular revolution in January, Egyptians began protesting last week, demanding freedom, democracy, and Mubarak's resignation. The gatherings swelled to hundreds of thousands of people today, and the president is clearly feeling the pressure.

Mubarak: 'I will die on Egyptian soil'

His decision not to run for reelection echoes the same move by Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s now-deposed president. Mr. Ben Ali announced Jan. 13 that he would not seek reelection, but Tunisians spurned his offer and he fled to Saudi Arabia the following day.

Mubarak, however, gave a clear signal that he does not intend to follow Ben Ali into political exile.

“The Hosni Mubarak who speaks to you today is proud of his achievements over the years in serving Egypt and its people,” he said in an address broadcast on state television. “This is my country. This is where I lived, I fought and defended its land, sovereignty, and interests, and I will die on its soil.”

But Egyptians are pledging a similar fate for their president as they plan more massive protests for Friday.

“The age of Mubarak will end on Friday. It will be his last day,” said Ibrahim Toma, a protester in his 20s. “The poor don’t want him. The rich don’t want him. The Christians don’t want him. The Muslims don’t want him. What is he waiting for?”

He said Mubarak is afraid to leave for fear of prosecution. Tunisia recently issued an arrest warrant for Ben Ali, and the European Union has frozen his bank assets.

“Mubarak is afraid to go because of everything he stole from the people, because of all the people he killed here in Tahrir Square and in Suez," said Mr. Toma. During clashes with police over the past week, more than a dozen protesters were reportedly killed in Suez and upwards of 80 people have died in Cairo.

Protester: 'Thirty years of injustice is enough.'

Indeed, many in Tahrir Square on Tuesday night said they not only want Mubarak out but they want him judged for what they say are crimes against the nation. They also rejected the vice president recently appointed by Mubarak and any leaders from his ruling National Democratic Party.

Egyptians are demanding an entirely new slate and a chance to choose their own leaders. Their movement has now gone too far to turn back, they say.

“You think after all this, after everything that happened, we’re just going to leave when he says this?” asked Negla Sayyed, who came with her son to protest today. “I don’t think so. Eighty million people don’t want him. Thirty years of injustice is enough. We don’t need eight more months.”

Mubarak’s address was projected into Tahrir Square on a sheet hung from a building. Many who watched were planning to spend the chilly night in the square, where thousands have slept since Friday following a fierce battle with police. Some set up tents in the middle of the square. Others simply lay in the street.

ElBaradei: It's 'a trick'

Mubarak’s statement was immediately rejected by Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the UN nuclear watchdog agency, who has become a leading opposition figure in Egypt. Calling Mubarak’s statement "a trick” to stay in power, he reportedly reiterated that Mubarak must step down before opposition groups will negotiate.

Mr. El Baradei today had a phone conversation with the US ambassador to Egypt, as Washington appears to be reaching out to key figures who may play a role in Egypt’s future. Meanwhile, a former US ambassador to Egypt, Frank Wisner, traveled to Cairo to speak with Mubarak and help facilitate an “orderly transition.”

How that transition comes about, and who plays a role in it, remains to be seen. President Barack Obama, in an message following Mubarak’s speech Tuesday, said political transition "must begin now" and voiced support for the protesters who continue to call for Mubarak’s immediate resignation. “To the young people of Egypt, we hear your voices,” he said.

Those voices include Sayed El Sisi, an unemployed college graduate who blames the Mubarak government for creating the conditions in which many Egyptians find it difficult to earn a living.

“This is not enough for us, and we will not give up,” says Mr. El Sisi. “I want to see a new president in my country who will change every eight years whether he is good or bad, like in the US. We want change, and we want it now.”

More on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

World / Middle East

Yemen's Saleh agrees not to run again. Is that good enough for protesters?

By Laura Kasinof, Correspondent / February 2, 2011
The Christian Science Monitor

LINK


Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh declared Wednesday that he would not seek reelection in 2013, but protesters plan to keep on demonstrating.

Sanaa, Yemen

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced today in an emergency parliamentary meeting that he would not run again in Yemen’s upcoming presidential election in 2013. The move is being seen as a major concession to Yemen’s political opposition after Tunisia-inspired protests have broken out across the country over the past two weeks.

“President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced that he would freeze the draft constitutional amendments that are before Parliament denying allegations that there is an intention for hereditary rule in Yemen,” reads a statement from the official Saba news agency in reference to proposed legislation that would abolish presidential term limits and speculation that the Mr. Saleh is going to hand the presidency over to his son Ahmed Saleh.

He added that he will not seek another presidential term in 2013.

Saleh's announcement comes one day before the largest day of demonstrations calling for an end to the corruption of his regime are planned to take place in Yemen’s capital, Sana. The constitutional amendments that Saleh referred to in his speech are part of key contention points between the opposition and the ruling party.

Indeed, the mood remains tense on Sanaa’s streets, crawling with soldiers this morning as the city waits to see what will happen on Thursday in what has been dubbed Yemen’s "day of wrath," using the name Egyptian protesters gave to one of their demonstrations last week.

“[Saleh’s concession] is a reaction to the internal developments in Yemen nationwide, and the developments in the entire region, after what happened in Tunisia and what we are seeing happen in Egypt,” says Hafez Albukari, president of a local, independent nongovernmental organization called the Yemen Polling Center. “He wants to send a clear message to the Yemeni people that he will do some reforms and he will not run again, but I think we should wait for actual implementation of these promises.”

Too little, too late?

And while Saleh's declaration appears to be one step in the direction of prodemocracy reforms, Yemen's opposition says that the president's announcement is too little, too late. They claimed that despite the attempt to quell discontent, Thursday's protests are scheduled to go on as planned

Saleh will present his resignation in a way that is not serious, said Parliament member Ali Ashal who belongs to the leading Al Islah opposition party in a statement to the Monitor on Tuesday.

It will be “theatrics” like the “play of 2006,” when Saleh had announced that he would not run again for the presidency, but then withdrew because of so-called public pressure, Mr. Ashal continued.

And just as Egyptians are not content with the extent of President Hosni Mubarak’s conciliatory gestures, Ashal said that if Yemen’s president really wanted to revive Yemen’s political system, he would announce plans to neutralize Yemen’s military state and decentralize the power system in Yemen, which now is largely viewed to reside solely in the hands of the president.

Yemen Expert at Princeton University Gregory Johnsen agrees that whatever Saleh’s concessions are to the opposition, they are going to need to be big in order to initiate any real change.

“Certainly the opposition could use the events of the past few weeks to its advantage, but at the moment few trust the current government,” Mr. Johnsen wrote in an e-mail to the Monitor. “So the problem becomes: What can the government say or do to the appease those who believe it will break its pledge just as it has in the past,”

All sides are keen to avoid the sort of mass chaos that has struck Egypt during recent weeks. In Yemen — where small arms proliferation is rampant — chaos could become violent very quickly.

Furthermore, Washington remains concerned about the instability in Yemen due to the presence of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the branch of the international terrorist group responsible for two major attack attempts against the US in a little over a year.

Saleh’s move isn’t the only attempt by an Arab leader to avoid mass similar to what has befallen Tunisia and Egypt. Yesterday, Jordanian King Abdullah announced that he would dissolve his cabinet after antigovernment protests broke out in his country as well.

More on LINK

 

[George Wallace]

The situation in Yeman could become explosive.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

The Plight of Northern Yemen


A Life of Conflict, Dust and Ruins

02/02/2011
By Alexander Smoltczyk in Saada
SPIEGEL ONLINE

LINK

The remote region of northern Yemen has been devastated by six wars and is cut off from regular aid supplies. A delegation of the UN relief agency and the EU recently visited the area for the first time -- and found child warriors, desperate refugees and cities of dust.

The wars came like the seasons, and people became accustomed to them, counting them like years of their lives: the first war, the second, the third…

The sixth war in northern Yemen was the worst. It ravaged a country that was already on its knees. Each new round of hostilities was more complex and ruthless than the last, and fought with more expensive weapons. The conflict grew like a cancerous tumor, fed by suffering and increasingly multi-layered interests.

"What do you need," Kristalina Georgieva, the European commissioner for international cooperation, asks a haggard, toothless man on a recent trip to the war-torn country. "Help," he replies.

Humanitarian missions here are simple. Everything is scarce, water, flour, medicine, schools and clothing. Fuel, transport, beds, shade and justice. Everything is welcome. It's that simple.

And there's enough money to provide help. The EU will provide €19.5 million ($27 million) this year, and the refugee agency of the UN, the UNHCR, will provide almost $10 million.

All that needs to be done is to get the supplies to where they are most urgently needed. But that's the problem. "We need access, access, access," says Georgieva. "We know best where the need is greatest," the governor of Saada replies. The aid, he says, should be handed over to him.

A Fragile Non-War

Georgieva was in the country with Antonio Guterres, the head of the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR. It was an unusual mission -- such joint trips aren't customary on the international aid circuit. But the situation in northern Yemen is so serious that customs don't matter, they say.

The delegation walks through the ruins of the center of Saada. The sight of the devastation is made marginally more bearable because all the buildings are made of clay, and because children are clambering over the ruins everywhere. For some reason, clay ruins are less disturbing than mangled concrete.

The electricity comes from generators and the water has to be transported into the city in canisters. But many are happy to be able to live here. Outside the city, the situation is even worse. "Malnutrition among children under five is worse than in Darfur at the start of the conflict there," says a leading aid official. Some areas have been cut off from any healthcare for the last five years.

There has been a ceasefire in the northern provinces of Yemen since August 2010, but it is a fragile state of non-war that could end at any time. The six waves of war flushed too many weapons into the country, and too many people have their own interests in the conflict. "We must show now that peace yields development, otherwise it will start again," says Georgieva.

The government is trying to play down the conflict. "The Houthis are basically just a family" says one Yemeni diplomat accompanying the delegation. No government likes to admit that it doesn't have any power in large parts of its country. Checkpoints mark a circle of around seven kilometers around the city. Beyond that line is a barely accessible region that could end up determining the future of Yemen.

A 'War on Terror'?

The Houthi are a tribe of Hashemites, which makes them descendants of the Prophet Muhammad. Their religion, Zaidism, is a branch of Shia Islam, but their rituals are very similar to those of Sunni Muslims. Houthis and Sunnis pray in the same mosques.

But their issue isn't a religious one. "The Houthis feel neglected by the central government. They mainly want development," says Georgieva.

The conflict has been fanned by Yemen's mighty neighbor Saudi Arabia, which suspects the Houthis of being close to Iran and which has tried to spread its own strict interpretation of Islam, Wahhabism, in the region.

And the government in the Yemeni capital of Sana'a has portrayed the rebellious Houthis as supporters of al-Qaida in order to justify its campaign against them as a "war on terror." The justification has also led to the use of US weapons, supplied for the fight against al-Qaida, in the war against the Houthis.

The war in northern Yemen "has violated two fundamental pillars of Yemen's stability: a political formula premised on power-sharing and the gradual convergence of the two principal sectarian identities," the International Crisis Group, an NGO, wrote in a recent analysis.

Guterres, the former prime minister of Portugal, and Georgieva, an ex-World Bank official, get along well. Colleagues say they are a stroke of luck for international disaster relief because they simply focus on getting the job done. They sit on the floor in huts and ask what supplies are lacking and how they can help to improve things.

Child Soldiers

A meeting with Houthi representatives is only allowed after lengthy negotiations -- at their own risk, as the governor makes clear. Beyond the checkpoints, he can no longer guarantee their safety.

Guterres and Georgieva are met by a man called Sheikh Abu Aliu. The warriors in the room are chewing khat and have put their Kalashnikovs in their laps. The fighters, though, "were very young. One of them was still a child, perhaps 12 or 13," says Georgieva. Until now, it wasn't known that there are child soldiers in Yemen.

"The Houthis assured us that aid workers and convoys would be safe. They said they would not influence the distribution of aid supplies," says Georgieva. Both she and Guterres hope that the government in Sana'a will now open their checkpoints to aid convoys and aid workers.

"Our main problem is the militia," says Raul Rosende, the head of the UN office in Sana'a for the coordination of humanitarian aid. Convoys are frequently hijacked and Western staff kidnapped as a convenient means of extortion and pressure. "We're one thing above all: a resource," says Swedish engineer Lennart Hansson of the UNHCR. The intelligence agencies had told him his ranking on al-Qaida's list of kidnapping targets: "pretty high up."

Yemen Can't Afford Its Hospitality

Yemen is the only Arab country to have signed the 1951 UN convention on refugees. "The poorest are the most hospitable," Georgieva says. Yemen, the poorest of all Arab countries, grants asylum to all civil war refugees. There are many of them in this part of the world.

Every week, Somali refugees land on the coast of the Gulf of Aden. Ethiopians are smuggled into the country, with women and children often being sold to Saudi Arabia by human traffickers. The UNHCR estimates that there are 350,000 Somalis in Yemen.

The country can't afford its hospitality. It doesn't have enough water, hospitals, schools and work for its own population. And the Yemeni arm of al-Qaida recruits new members among the poorest of the poor. Yemen's revenues from oil and gas production will have dried up in a few years. Its attractiveness as a holiday destination has waned since the al-Qaida attacks.

The refugee camp in al-Kharaz is at the other end of the country, at the southernmost tip of Yemen, just aross the Gulf of Aden from the Horn of Africa. It is a city of dust and plastic bags, of faded UNHCR tents, cardboard walls and armed security guards. It is surrounded by a stony desert that stretches to the sea.

Recently, electricity was brought to this tent city. Before that, the refugees had to squat in front of their tents in complete darkness at night. The number of rapes rose sharply in that period, the UNHCR said.

The delegation inspects a communal room where they are told how how refugees walk 90 kilometers to Aden to earn a bit of money. And that many of them sell items donated by aid organizations in order to earn some cash.

A boy pulls along his toy car on a string -- a milk carton with bottletops attached for wheels.

A group of people has gathered at the edge of the camp and is holding up hand-painted banners. They are members of the Oromo ethnic group from Ethiopia, and they are demanding more rights, more aid and a stronger legal status.

They complain about bribery and discrimination. A child died, they say. They have drafted a letter. "To all human rights agencies." They are self-confident and well organized. They know how to get people to listen to them.

That's the good news.

More on LINK

 

[The Bread Guy]

For some background (although 7 months old, methinks it'll get updated pretty soon) on Yemen, this from the Congressional Research Service:

With limited natural resources, a crippling illiteracy rate, and high population growth, Yemen faces an array of daunting development challenges that some observers believe make it at risk for becoming a failed state. In 2009, Yemen ranked 140 out of 182 countries on the United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index, a score comparable to the poorest sub-Saharan African countries. Over 43% of the population of nearly 24 million people lives below the poverty line, and per capita GDP is estimated to be between $650 and $800. Yemen is largely dependent on external aid from Persian Gulf countries, Western donors, and international financial institutions, though its per capita share of assistance is below the global average. As the country's population rapidly rises, resources dwindle, terrorist groups take root in the outlying provinces, and a southern secessionist movement grows, the Obama Administration and the 111th Congress are left to grapple with the consequences of Yemeni instability. Traditionally, U.S.-Yemeni relations have been tepid, as the lack of strong military-to-military partnership, trade relations, and cross cultural exchanges has hindered the development of close bilateral ties. During the early years of the Bush Administration, relations improved under the rubric of the war against Al Qaeda, though Yemen's lax policy toward wanted terrorists and U.S. concerns about governance and corruption have stalled large-scale U.S. support ....

Also, check here to see if/when a more up-to-date version is available.

 

[George Wallace]

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Middle East

A Diplomatic Scramble as an Ally Is Pushed to the Exit

02/02/2011
By MARK LANDLER, HELENE COOPER and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK
Published: February 1, 2011
The New York Times

LINK

WASHINGTON — Last Sunday at 2 p.m., a blue-and-white Air Force jet left Andrews Air Force Base bound for Cairo. On board was Frank G. Wisner, an adroit ex-diplomat whom President Obama had asked hours before to undertake a supremely delicate mission: nudging President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt out of power.

What exactly Mr. Wisner would say was still in flux as he flew to Egypt, administration officials said Tuesday; he talked with senior officials in Washington several times during the nearly 14-hour flight. By the time Mr. Wisner met with the Egyptian leader on Tuesday, the diplomat knew what message he would deliver. And Mr. Mubarak had already lost the backing of his other crucial pillar of support: the Egyptian military, which declared it would not open fire on the demonstrators who were demanding his ouster.

The story of how Mr. Mubarak, an Arab autocrat who only last month was the mainstay of America’s policy in a turbulent region, suddenly found himself pushed toward the exit is first and foremost a tale of the Arab street.

But it is also one of political calculations, in Cairo and Washington, which were upset repeatedly as the crowds swelled. And it is the story of a furious scramble by the Obama White House — right up until Mr. Obama’s call Tuesday night for change to begin “now” — to catch up with a democracy movement unfolding so rapidly that Washington came close to being left behind.

“Every time the administration uttered something, its words were immediately overtaken by events on the ground,” said Robert Malley, Middle East and North Africa program director for the International Crisis Group. “And in a matter of days, every assumption about the United States relationship with Egypt was upended.”

In Cairo, the protests prompted Mr. Mubarak to surround himself even more closely with current and former military leaders, including his new, hastily named vice president, prime minister and deputy prime minister.

But instead of protecting him, there is increasing evidence that over the last three days the military establishment — one of the most respected institutions in Egyptian society, and the crucial factor in deciding control of the streets — may have been moving toward pushing Mr. Mubarak out.

The first sign of the military’s deteriorating support came Saturday when rank-and-file troops ordered to buttress the retreating police instead began to cheer on the protesters. Then on Monday night, the military leadership appeared to break away, announcing that the military respected the people’s legitimate demands and that it would not use force against peaceful demonstrators.

A short time later, Mr. Mubarak’s closest aide, Omar Suleiman, the chief of Egyptian intelligence and the newly named vice president, invited opposition groups to negotiate over constitutional reforms.

Back in Washington, the administration was struggling to balance its ties to Mr. Mubarak, its most stalwart ally in the Arab world, with its fear of ending up on the wrong side of history.

But days of watching the protests mushroom on the streets of Egyptian cities convinced administration officials — some facing their first national security crisis in these roles — that Mr. Mubarak probably would not weather the political storm.

Former President George Bush, whose ties to Mr. Mubarak were cemented by the Egyptian leader’s commitment to supply Arab troops during the Persian Gulf war in 1991, called Mr. Mubarak, on his own initiative, to discuss the crisis, officials said. It was not clear what Mr. Bush told Mr. Mubarak.

At a two-hour meeting at the White House last Saturday, Thomas E. Donilon, the national security adviser; William M. Daley, the White House chief of staff, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton; the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Leon E. Panetta; and other officials coalesced around a strategy to start trying to ease Mr. Mubarak out, an official said.

Mrs. Clinton, officials said, suggested that the administration send Mr. Wisner, a former ambassador to Egypt who knows Mr. Mubarak well, to deliver a message directly from Mr. Obama to the Egyptian leader. Officials said Mr. Wisner urged Mr. Mubarak to declare publicly that he would not run for re-election. But Mr. Wisner has extended his stay in Cairo, officials said, and may have a follow-up meeting with Mr. Mubarak if events seem to demand a quicker exit.

At the Saturday meeting, the officials also agreed that Mrs. Clinton would start calling for “an orderly transition” when she taped a round of interviews for the Sunday talk programs. Administration officials were already smarting from not coming out more fully in support of the protesters earlier. In particular, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. had been criticized for an interview with “NewsHour” on PBS on Thursday, in which he answered “no” when the host, Jim Lehrer, asked if the time had come for Mr. Mubarak to go.

“They took a little while to catch up, but by Sunday morning they understood that it was over, and since then, they’ve understood how to make it happen,” said Martin S. Indyk, the director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

Still, administration officials were grappling with their public message versus their private message. Senior officials say that as Mr. Wisner traveled to Egypt, Obama officials in Washington were working on his message to Mr. Mubarak: to announce that he would not run for re-election (he did that), and to promise that his son would not run for election (he did not do that).

“No one wanted it to seem as if we were pushing him out,” one administration official said. “That would not serve American interests. It was important for President Mubarak to make the decision.”

Two hours after Mr. Wisner’s plane left Andrews Air Force Base, White House officials sent an e-mail to more than a dozen foreign policy experts in Washington, asking them to come in for a meeting on Monday morning. “Apologies for the short notice in light of a very fluid situation,” the e-mail said.

The Roosevelt Room meeting, led by Benjamin Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, and two other National Security Council officials, Daniel Shapiro and Samantha Power, examined unrest in the region, and the potential for the protests to spread, according to several attendees.

Significantly, during the meeting, White House staff members “made clear that they did not rule out engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood as part of an orderly process,” according to one attendee, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity because he did not want to talk publicly about the meeting. The Muslim group had been suppressed by Mr. Mubarak, and Bush administration officials believed it was involved in terrorist activities. It renounced violence years ago.

Several times, two other attendees said, White House staff members said that Mr. Obama believed that Egyptian politics needed to encompass “nonsecular” parties: diplomatic-speak for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Adding to the pressure against Mr. Mubarak, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, called on the president to bow out gracefully and “make way for a new political structure,” in an Op-Ed article in The New York Times. Mr. Kerry did not coordinate his message with the administration, an official said, but the White House welcomed his initiative.

On Tuesday morning, Mr. Donilon was hunkered over a sprawling spreadsheet on his desk, crossing out names of more than 100 leaders and other officials in the Middle East and the United States. The spreadsheet — “matrix,” one White House aide called it — was full of Mr. Donilon’s notations and asides, as he went through which person at the State Department, the Pentagon, and White House was to call which foreign counterpart.

Mr. Obama himself spoke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, among other leaders.

American officials had also been in close contact with Vice President Suleiman, who may be playing a particularly pivotal role in managing the transition of power. American and Egyptian officials who know him well describe him as both a cunning operator and Mr. Mubarak’s closest aide. He is also considered the figure with the largest base of support in Egypt’s security forces because his work as intelligence chief built him deep ties with the internal security police and the military.

The momentous events in Cairo leave many questions. Will the protesters tolerate Mr. Mubarak’s staying on, even in a lame-duck capacity? Early indications were negative. How will Egypt prepare for credible elections, after nearly 30 years in which the political opposition was ruthlessly suppressed?

As Stephen P. Cohen, a Middle East expert, put it, “How can you have a transitional government that is acceptable to both the military and the people in the streets, and that is not a coronation for the Muslim Brotherhood?”

Also, how will an extended period of turmoil in a country at the heart of the Arab world affect stability across a region already being rocked by unrest from Yemen to Jordan? And for the United States, can an Egypt without Mr. Mubarak serve American interests in the Middle East?

On Tuesday night, that too remained unanswered. But Mr. Obama, addressing the nation from the White House after a 30-minute phone call with Mr. Mubarak, said, “What is clear, and what I indicated tonight to President Mubarak, is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful, and it must begin now.”

Mark Landler and Helene Cooper reported from Washington, and David D. Kirkpatrick from Cairo.

More on LINK

 

[The Bread Guy]

"Protesters, Mubarak supporters fight in Cairo square":  "Opponents and supporters of President Hosni Mubarak fought with fists, stones and clubs in Cairo on Wednesday as the Egyptian government rejected international calls for the leader to end his 30-year-rule now.  Anti-Mubarak protesters said some of the attackers were members of the hated police force in plain clothes. In chaotic scenes in central Tahrir Square, some rode into the crowd on horses and camels and in carriages, wielding whips and sticks.  Opposition figurehead Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace laureate, called on the army intervene to stop the violence, the worst in the nine-day uprising against Mubarak since protesters fought street battles last Friday. But troops stood by and watched  ...."

"EU urges Mubarak to act 'as quickly as possible' ":  "European Union foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton on Wednesday urged Egypt's embattled President Hosni Mubarak to "do things as quickly as possible" on the transition to elections.  "We need to see movement," Ashton told journalists.  "We call for him to do things as quickly as possible" she added, after being asked whether the EU believed his offer to step down in September was too late.  She spoke flanked by Tunisia's new Foreign Minister Ahmed Abderraouf Ounais, making his maiden visit overseas after the popular uprising that swept out Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's regime ...."

(UK) "PM calls for rapid Egypt transition":  "Prime Minister David Cameron has called on Egypt's beleaguered President Hosni Mubarak to begin a "rapid and credible" process of transition.  He told the Commons the process "needs to start now" as he offered support for those demanding freedom and democracy.  At Prime Minister's question time Mr Cameron said 1,000 UK citizens had returned home from Egypt in the last 48 hours.  Mr Cameron said: "Transition needs to be rapid and credible and it needs to start now. "We should be clear: we stand with those, in this country, who want freedom, who want democracy and rights the world over ...."

"Shippers Concerned Over Possible Suez Canal Disruptions":  "Western oil and gas companies have halted most drilling in Egypt, but as violence has broken out in some cities the biggest immediate threat to world energy supplies could emerge from a possible blockage of the Suez Canal  or nearby pipelines.  So far shipping and oil and gas flows through Egypt have not been interrupted and the army has stepped up security around the canal and pipelines.  But rising tensions in the port of Suez have led several shipping companies to order their ships not to change crews in Egypt. Meanwhile disruptions in government port services have slowed the discharge of some crude oil cargo at the Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna at the southern entrance to the Suez Canal.  “Potentially we see attacks on employees of shipping companies and attempted attacks on vessels docked in ports if you see more violent demonstrations around the ports,” said Helima L. Croft, a director and geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital. “It could be very problematic.” ...."


"Egypt demonstrations worry shipping industry":  "The demonstrations in Egypt have started to concern the shipping industry. Egypt is a vital shipping route between Europe and Asia, with around 8% of the world's trade passing through it.  The Suez canal remains open but ships wishing to dock and refuel before leaving Egypt are finding ports such Alexandria, Damietta and Port Said unmanned or running on a skeleton crew.  Patrick Adamson, from the shipping consultants MTI Network, said alternative ports may need to be used."

"U.S. sees Suez Canal closure as inconceivable":  "The United States would respond "diplomatically, economically, militarily" to any closure of the Suez Canal although such an event seems inconceivable, the head of U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday.  Gen. James Mattis, who oversees U.S. military operations in an area stretching from Egypt to Pakistan, also said the United States had no plans to re-order its military forces in the region because of instability in North Africa.  "When you look at the fiscal impact of that (closing the Suez canal) on whoever is in a position of authority in Egypt, I just can't imagine the motive to shut that down," Mattis said at a London event hosted by the Policy Exxchange think tank.  He had been asked if the United States would be prepared to act if there were any disruptions to the key shipping channel because of mass protests in Egypt against the 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak.  "Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it diplomatically, economically, militarily, whatever, but that to me is hypothetical and I would defer to the political leaders," he said ...."

"Freight Still Flowing Through Suez Canal And Egyptian Ports":  "The country is winning plaudits from far and wide as the so far ‘quiet revolution’ continues and the people demand the removal from power of President Mubarak. Despite some deaths on the streets and much publicised fears of looting, plus the suspension of internet services it seems freight vessels and bulk tankers are passing freely through the Suez Canal.  Obviously the countrywide curfew between 1500 and 0800 hours is affecting business and communications and port activity is restricted, many people effectively off work until something develops with cargo in a state of suspension until the crisis passes.  The Canal however, according to eye witness reports we have received, is operating as normally as can be expected with restrictions preventing crew exchanges and the delivery of spare parts but most masters are just grateful to get through at all. Banks are closed so cash is a problem but established agents like GAC Egypt tell us they are able to provide funds for transiting the Canal using their telephone banking services ...."

"Shipping companies forward vessels by-passing Egyptian ports":  "One of the largest transport-forwarding companies, Maersk, temporally stopped all terminal operations in Egypt. Despite the current situation in the country, Maersk did not deny passage of vessels through the Suez Canal. But if the Canal becomes closed in the nearest future, many large transport-forwarding companies will have to replan own sea routes, which will led to the requirement in additional time.  At the same time, official representatives of the company hold back from any commentaries, and do not provide any official confirmations.  Several shipping companies decided to review sea routes of own vessels, and sent them by-passing the Horn of Africa, worrying for security of transported cargoes."

"Crude oil prices climb":  "Crude oil prices rose above $91 per barrel in New York Wednesday after a volatile week, with traders keeping an eye on developments in Egypt .... Traders are concerned unrest could prompt closure of the Suez Canal or spread to other countries.  March contract light, sweet crude oil added 71 cents to $91.48 per barrel. Home heating oil prices added 1.57 cents to 2.7727. Reformulated gas prices shed 1.99 cents to $2.4995 per gallon ...."