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CPC Leadership Discussion 2020-21

S

stellarpanther

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Remius said:
O’Toole wins.

Now I'll need to take a closer look at the CPC.  I hoping he's still interested in CANZUK and those countries are as well. 

 
S

stellarpanther

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So I stayed up watching O'Toole's speech and it was a good one.  He said all the right things with me sitting here telling myself that I could maybe see myself voting for the CPC with him as the leader.  At the end I became a little ticked off and maybe I'm a bit obsessed with wearing masks but I didn't like seeing everyone come up on stage shaking hands with no masks at the end.  Keep the damn things properly on your face is my message to him.  Also, the thing to do now is touch elbow's, not fist bumps.
I don't think there will be an election anytime soon so I have time to think about what I'll do in the future.
 

FJAG

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Good2Golf said:
Same system that let Scheer run up the middle in the last vote.

Yup. The numbers from round to round tell the tale.

https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/ 

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24003224/6a2fd06b9518d0a.pdf

The 'make me your number two or three choice' plea to the Socons did the trick for him. Of roughly 11,800 Socon points in round one, 3,200 went to MacKay and 8,600 went to O'Toole in the last round. All the scared centrist votes are going Liberal again in the next election unless O'Toole can pull a rabbit out of his butt.

:brickwall:

 

Remius

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FJAG said:
Yup. The numbers from round to round tell the tale.

https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/ 

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24003224/6a2fd06b9518d0a.pdf

The 'make me your number two or three choice' plea to the Socons did the trick for him. Of roughly 11,800 Socon points in round one, 3,200 went to MacKay and 8,600 went to O'Toole in the last round. All the scared centrist votes are going Liberal again in the next election unless O'Toole can pull a rabbit out of his butt.

:brickwall:

You may be right.  O’Toole tried to woo them over and it worked.  How it works at the national level in an election is to be seen.  For now he’s the leader and I guess we’ll see how he does.

He would not have been my first choice but I would have picked him over the other two.

Time will tell.
 

brihard

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Surprising and interesting result. Erin’s a good guy and I think he’ll do well, but he very much has his work cut out for him. He’s gonna have to quickly pivot away from the SOCONs and back to centrist appeal if he wants to win an election. The LPC will desperately be looking for ‘fears’ that they can hang their hat on. If he can steer clear of social issues and unambiguously give the necessary answers on urstions like gay marriage and abortion, he may have a chance. Maybe.
 

Jarnhamar

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[quote author=Brihard] give the necessary answers on urstions like gay marriage and abortion, he may have a chance. Maybe.
[/quote]

Don't forget a solemn vow to March in Toronto's Pride parade.
 

dapaterson

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Jarnhamar said:
Don't forget a solemn vow to March in Toronto's Pride parade.

I'll suggest that Scheer's refusal to participate or signal that the CPC was open to the LGBTQ likely cost them 10-20 seats in the GTA, and another dozen or so in QC - take the first bunch of seats fro mthe LPC, and the second bunch from the Bloc, and we could be under a minority CPC government right now.

A big part of leadership is just showing up.
 

LittleBlackDevil

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FJAG said:
Yup. The numbers from round to round tell the tale.

https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/ 

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24003224/6a2fd06b9518d0a.pdf

The 'make me your number two or three choice' plea to the Socons did the trick for him. Of roughly 11,800 Socon points in round one, 3,200 went to MacKay and 8,600 went to O'Toole in the last round. All the scared centrist votes are going Liberal again in the next election unless O'Toole can pull a rabbit out of his butt.

:brickwall:

This is just good tactics/politics on O'Toole's part and if you want to bang your head against a wall or blame someone, blame MacKay for not at least acknowledging SoCon concerns and trying to woo some of their vote.

Frankly, I don't even know what kind of a campaign MacKay ran. I never heard or saw anything from him during the whole leadership whereas I received lots of correspondence in various formats (snail mail, email, and phone calls) from the other three campaigns, especially the O'Toole campaign. O'Toole seemed to run the most aggressive and active campaign as far as I could see so ... again, you want to blame SoCons and the "system" or maybe MacKay just didn't do a great job. Maybe MacKay wouldn't have been the best man to run a federal election either. Discussing the leadership with some friends yesterday we struggled to articulate how a MacKay-run CPC would differentiate itself from the LPC.

For those CPC members who hate the SoCons so much, can you explain to me why you don't just join the LPC instead and advocate for Chretien/Martin era fiscal responsibility combined with the current "social awareness"?
 

Remius

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Eric Grenier breaks it down.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-how-otoole-won-1.5697358
 

Remius

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LittleBlackDevil said:
For those CPC members who hate the SoCons so much, can you explain to me why you don't just join the LPC instead and advocate for Chretien/Martin era fiscal responsibility combined with the current "social awareness"?

To be honest some have and will.

The key isn’t about losing CPC voters.  It’s about wooing middle of the road centrists that could go one way or the other. 

The leader has to expand the base because the base can’t win on its own.

Can O’Toole do it?  Time will tell but I look forward to see if he can provide a solid alternative.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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Remius said:
To be honest some have and will.

The key isn’t about losing CPC voters.  It’s about wooing middle of the road centrists that could go one way or the other. 

The leader has to expand the base because the base can’t win on its own.

Can O’Toole do it?  Time will tell but I look forward to see if he can provide a solid alternative.

I am one of those CPC voters.  I will vote either Lib or CPC but will lean Lib if I think the CPC leader is a religious wing nut who doesn't respect other people's personal rights.
 

SeaKingTacco

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I was at 443 Sqn at around the same time Erin was at 423 Sqn, so I knew him in passing then and know him well enough today to say hello to him.

Erin is a good guy, at heart. He does not strike me as any kind of radical. I think he would make a fine Prime Minister. The question is: can he assemble a broad enough coalition to attract enough Canadians to defeat the Liberals?
 

LittleBlackDevil

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Humphrey Bogart said:
I am one of those CPC voters.  I will vote either Lib or CPC but will lean Lib if I think the CPC leader is a religious wing nut who doesn't respect other people's personal rights.

Honest question ... why is it more acceptable to you to have a leftist wing nut who doesn't respect other peoples' personal rights, than a "religious wing nut" who doesn't respect a different group of other's peoples' personal rights?

It's not as if the Liberals under Justin Trudeau's leadership are social libertarians. They just disrespect the rights of different groups. Yet this is somehow acceptable to most.
 

observor 69

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SeaKingTacco said:
I was at 443 Sqn at around the same time Erin was at 423 Sqn, so I knew him in passing then and know him well enough today to say hello to him.

Erin is a good guy, at heart. He does not strike me as any kind of radical. I think he would make a fine Prime Minister. The question is: can he assemble a broad enough coalition to attract enough Canadians to defeat the Liberals?

And how is his French?  McKay was putting a lot of effort into his French recently.
 

SeaKingTacco

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Humphrey Bogart said:
I am one of those CPC voters.  I will vote either Lib or CPC but will lean Lib if I think the CPC leader is a religious wing nut who doesn't respect other people's personal rights.

Newsflash for you Humphrey: unless you are part of a very small, anointed, ideologically pure and woke “in group” within the Liberal Party of Canada, your “rights” mean nothing. The LPC is running Canada solely as a benefit to them: everyone else be damned.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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LittleBlackDevil said:
Honest question ... why is it more acceptable to you to have a leftist wing nut who doesn't respect other peoples' personal rights, than a "religious wing nut" who doesn't respect a different group of other's peoples' personal rights?

It's not as if the Liberals under Justin Trudeau's leadership are social libertarians. They just disrespect the rights of different groups. Yet this is somehow acceptable to most.

Whose rights have they disrespected?  Ok, firearms owners, but that's personally less important to me than same-sex marriage and abortions.

I am not happy about the Liberals firearms policies but am even less happy about Andrew Scheer and the SoCons not accepting that abortion and same-sex marriage is a right in this Country.

It personally affects relatives of mine and my family, so yah, if they want to play that card, they can lose my vote to team Red.  I will never vote for someone that shows any inkling that they may allow the debate on same-sex marriage and abortion to be reopened.

As for economic policies, the Cons need to show me they can do more.  They talk a big game but last time they were in power, they got basically nothing done other than create false savings by royally screwing over the Civil Service (thanks SSC and Phoenix) in attempts to show a "balanced budget" oh and they bailed out a bunch of big Corps post 2008.

They talked a lot about supporting the Energy Industry but  never even got one thing done or built.  The Libs got Trans Mountain built and they might also get Keystone done as well.  Even while professing themselves as "Greenies".





 

dapaterson

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So, my forecast was off, but it is interesting to note that in round 2 Dr Lewis got the plurality of votes, but the system-so-weird-only-a-polisci-student-could-like-or-understand-it somehow gave her the least points.  Erin and Peter barely budged in their vote totals from round 1 to round 2, while Dr Lewis' count spiked, taking ~70% of Derek Sloan's votes.

This suggests that the current CPC still lies to the right of the old PCs.  The new leader will have to figure out how to expand the appeal of the party without alienating core constituencies (although this time it wasn't dairy farmers taking him over the top, so perhpas Canada could still end up with a rational, coherent agriculture policy).
 

Remius

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LittleBlackDevil said:
Honest question ... why is it more acceptable to you to have a leftist wing nut who doesn't respect other peoples' personal rights, than a "religious wing nut" who doesn't respect a different group of other's peoples' personal rights?

It's not as if the Liberals under Justin Trudeau's leadership are social libertarians. They just disrespect the rights of different groups. Yet this is somehow acceptable to most.

Are you talking about gun rights groups or some other groups whose rights Trudeau has disrespected?  That isn’t on par with women’s rights and gay rights if that is what you are getting at.  Especially when religious dogma drives it .

That is what people are wary of. 

I could vote either way but the moment “god” comes into the equation I tune out.

Hopefully O’Toole can present something good to Canadians that will present a viable alternative.

 

SeaKingTacco

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Remius said:
Are you talking about gun rights groups or some other groups whose rights Trudeau has disrespected?  That isn’t on par with women’s rights and gay rights if that is what you are getting at.  Especially when religious dogma drives it .

That is what people are wary of. 

I could vote either way but the moment “god” comes into the equation I tune out.

Hopefully O’Toole can present something good to Canadians that will present a viable alternative.

Please point to a single, credible piece of evidence where a Conservative government would remove abortion or same sex marriage as a right. I seem to recall 10 years under Harper (remember that big, scary social conservative?) where that did not happen.
 
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