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Colombia (Super thread)

Ok so forgive me for ignorance on this question, but is the US military in any state right now to start helping out down there too? I mean, they're pretty committed right now as it is aren't they? If they start trying to do everything everywhere it's going to leave them in a right old state isn't it? Do you think they'd start sending troops and stuff down there too if s**t hits the fan?

And I imagine Canada wouldn't play much of a factor? We've got our hands full right now? Am I correct? Sort of a "We support the US, heres a pat on the back for what you guys are doing down there," sort of deal, and that'd be it?
 
megsy said:
I think someone should remind Dear Hugo that Colombia has a much better military...

Venezuelan Su-30s vs. Colombian Super Tucano's?
Venezuelan AMX-30s vs. Colombian... oh wait, colombia doesn't have any MBTs?
 
Having seen the Venezuelan military up close and personal, I can't say that I was much impressed with their abilities. The Colombians have a fair bit of jungle warfare experience behind them and the only areas they would be vulnerable is in the coastal areas where Venezuela can use their armour more effectively.
 
That is right...

Colombia's combat wing consists of 12 Kfir fighters and 10 more were recently order to Israel, but most military spending goes to anti insurgency equipment and training. Probably, in matters of personel training Colombia is better, however Venezuela has spent A LOT of petro-dollars in war materiel. Maybe Colombia's navy has a better chance than the Venezuelan one but still the Colombian military is too overstretch dealing with the FARC. Certainly, a Venezuelan attack  would give the FARC an advantage to distabilize the country
 
Falange said:
Maybe Colombia's navy has a better chance than the Venezuelan one

The Colombian navy has the disadvantage of having coastal territory to defend in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, divided by Panama. Venezuela can concentrate its navy in the Atlantic.

Further, the Colombian navy has only 4 surface combatants. They do have the Exocet, but no SAM missiles. Would Su-30s make mince meat of them? Also, depending on which Block of Exocet and Otomat SSMs each is using, the Venezuelan SSMs could potentially out-range the Colombian's by a large distance (120km compared to 70km for Block I of each). As for subs, each only has two, both of the same German made model.

I'm no expert, but it seems like, without knowing anything about the quality of training for either navy, that the Venezuelan's are better prepared for a naval engagement.

Lets just come out and say it! Who would win in a total war engagement, Venezuela or Colombia?
 
Lumber,

You seem to be just comparing Venezuela and Colombia. Aren't you forgetting that Ecuador sent some of its troops to its own border with Colombia? In one of the worse case scenarios, Correa could lead Ecuador to help Chavez in a war against Colombia, though it was stated by political/regional experts in the article the below quote was from that they doubt such a regional conflict will happen in spite of Chavez's recent saber-rattling against Colombia.

Venezuela and Ecuador sent troops to their borders with Colombia on Sunday after their Andean neighbour bombed Colombian rebels inside Ecuador in an attack Caracas said could spark a war...

..Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, a close ally of the leftist, anti-U.S. Chavez, expelled Colombia's ambassador and recalled his own envoy from Bogota in protest over what he said was an intentional violation of his nation's sovereignty.

Perhaps that Pacific fleet of the Colombian Navy might help fight off any Ecuadorian amphibious landings? A quick online search shows that the Ecuadorian Navy has a few surface combatants, submarines and 1,000 Marines for its naval infantry.

http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-3992.html

The article link is a little dated.
 
Colombia: Rebels considering dirty bombs

GENEVA - Colombia's vice president claimed during a U.N. disarmament meeting Tuesday that the leftist guerrillas were trying to acquire radioactive material that could be used to make "dirty bombs."

Ecuador's justice minister, meanwhile, told the U.N. Human Rights Council that Colombia violated its human rights obligations when its military staged an attack on Ecuador's soil that killed a key rebel leader.

Both bodies are in the same Palais des Nations complex that houses United Nations offices in Geneva, but it was unclear if Colombian Vice President Francisco Santos and Ecuadorean Justice Minister Gustavo Jalkh met face-to-face.

The regularly scheduled meetings of the panels came a day after Ecuador and Venezuela ordered troops to their borders with Colombia, expelled that country's diplomats and largely halted trade at key points along the frontier in response to Colombia's killing of Raul Reyes, a leader with the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, on Saturday.

Speaking to the 65-nation Conference on Disarmament, Santos said evidence in two computers found with Reyes indicated FARC was apparently negotiating to acquire radioactive material — "the primary basis for generating dirty weapons of mass destruction and terrorism."

Colombian officials said Monday that investigators found documents suggesting the rebels had bought and sold uranium.

Santos said the discovery demonstrates that the economic power of drug trafficking is enabling terrorist groups "to constitute a serious threat not just to our country but to the entire Andean and Latin American region."

The guerrillas of FARC, who have been fighting for more than four decades, finance their operations largely through the cocaine trade.

Ecuador's Jalkh called the cross-border attack by Colombia a violation of his people's right to life and security and a violation of fundamental principles of peace and security.

Ecuador "energetically rejects any actions which violate its sovereignty and its integrity, particularly when its territory was intentionally bombed, setting at risk the human rights of Ecuadoreans," Jalkh told the 47-nation rights council.

"The international community will know that it must close ranks," he said, adding that Colombia's action "cannot be justified by any arguments."

Jalkh was responding to a Monday speech by Santos to the rights panel, in which he described Colombia as a peace-loving nation that was not looking for a wider war, but said it would stand firm in fighting terrorism and international drug trafficking.

Colombia has long complained that FARC rebels take refuge in Ecuador and Venezuela and accuses both countries of supporting the rebels financially and politically. Venezuela and Ecuador deny the allegations.
 
CougarDaddy said:
Perhaps that Pacific fleet of the Colombian Navy might help fight off any Ecuadorian amphibious landings? A quick online search shows that the Ecuadorian Navy has a few surface combatants, submarines and 1,000 Marines for its naval infantry.

I found they had a pair of confirmed operational patrol boats with Exocets, four corvettes with Exocets, and a pair of Patrol Frigates with no SSMs at all.

http://www.hazegray.org/worldnav/americas/ecuador.htm

Their combat aircraft seem to fair better than the Colombians as well, with Mirages and Israeli Kfirs.

As you said, it seems that the Colombians army of 400+ thousand troops (apparently not including support like cooks) is mostly engaged in a counterinsurgency role.

Despite their superior equipment, the Venezuelan military has only a TOTAL of 88k troops, add Ecuador's 60k and you have 148k, Army, Navy and Air combined.

So who wins? Colombia's huge numerical advantage or Venezuela's superior equipment?

Maybe someone knows something at all about the quality of training of these two nations that we could use to compare?
 
Dont forget Brazil. Brazil is no friend of Chavez and could be expected to join forces with Colombia. The US would provide support to Colombia. If Chavez is stupid enough to start a war he better hope his own military doesnt turn on him. It looks like a perfect time for a coup.
 
tomahawk6 said:
Dont forget Brazil. Brazil is no friend of Chavez and could be expected to join forces with Colombia. The US would provide support to Colombia. If Chavez is stupid enough to start a war he better hope his own military doesnt turn on him. It looks like a perfect time for a coup.

I used to argue that he should get some 'benefit of the doubt' consideration due to his popular support, but he is really going off the deep end these days.  Time for him to trade in his snappy beret for a tin foil hat, and this must be just as transparent to his supporters...

 
Chavez doesnt have the support he wants people to believe. He is using this situation as a pretext to accumulate more power.I dont see Chavez actually attacking Colombia he has alot to lose. The units he is deploying to the border are either reliable[which I doubt] or are units he doesnt trust and wants to keep them far away from the capitol. If he has deployed troops he trusts then the door is open for a coup.
 
This was taken from Tanknet, from a fellow who lives there to give some of the tactical background:

On the military front, there is still no sign of any troop movements towards Colombia. If there are any movements I would expect them to be focused on the Guajira peninsula. The only territory along the 2200km border suitable for an armored thurst is there. However, even if successful it won't get very far. There is a single road across the peninsula into Colombia and it really accomplishes nothing. The llamos (plains) have very soft ground and no roads at all, the Amazon region is even worse, and that only leaves the Andes. Chavez may push on Cucuta from San Cristobal, but the mountain terrain and the build up areas would play into the Colombian defenders hands. The reality of for the Venezuelan Army is that they won't be able to support their deployment on the border, let alone a mayor offensive or even a couple of weeks of combat ops.
 
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/06/nic.colombia/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Nicaragua breaks diplomatic relations with Colombia

(CNN) -- Nicaragua President Daniel Ortega said Thursday that the nation is breaking relations with Colombia "in solidarity with the Ecuadoran people."

The move comes after the Organization of American States passed a resolution Wednesday in hopes of easing tensions stemming from an attack by Colombian military on a rebel camp in neighboring Ecuador on Saturday.

Since that attack, Ecuador has broken off relations with Colombia, and Venezuela says it has moved troops to its border with Colombia.

Ortega made his televised remarks in Managua, where he was flanked by Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa........................
 
More from the same source on Tanknet, who I might add is NOT sending Chavez any christmas cards.  :)

Ironically, Correa arrived in Caracas soon after the agreement was drafted, where he proceeded to have a joint press conference with Chavez. At the conference, which was forced upon all TV and radion stations, Chavez continued his verban offensive against Colombia and announced the end of all trade with that country. I still haven't found an english source, but we are talking about a 6 billion $US market for Colombia and a major source for Venezuelan food. Apparently Chavez forgot that we have a slight problem with shortage of basic food items, which Colombia is providing. Ironically Chavez is suffering at home due to the shortages, which people correctly percieve to be the fault of his policies. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

Also

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 
old medic said:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/06/nic.colombia/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Nicaragua breaks diplomatic relations with Colombia

Greattt....maybe Lumber should include Nicaraguan forces in his speculation/scenarios of a war between Colombia and its neighbors, even if Colombia does not share any borders with Nicaragua. Perhaps we underestimated the pull/influence that Chavez has on his fellow OAS members who are also left-leaning, besides an Ecuador led by Pres. Correa.
 
Ok it’s been a few years since I’ve been in the region ( a vacation to San Andres last year really don’t count) so my info is dated.

Naval I’d give the edge to Colombia, most of their larger surface assets are in the Caribbean at Cartagena, Barranquilla,  and San Andres and more than sufficient to deal with Chaves small costal forces. The Colombian N 1st Naval Infantry Bn (Marines) based in Cartagena are some nasty characters (good party guys too).

On land again the edge. Chavez’s troops have spent too much stime swaggering around and occasionally terrorizing locals in the barrios. The last war they fought they were lead by Simon Bolivar. Colombian has by South American standards a good and well experienced army. They should be able to keep up the pressure on FARC, hold the Ecuadorians at the border and give Chazvez a bloody nose. The Colombian Venezuelan border region on the Amazon is FARC country so count on the Colombian’s knowing the ground, another huge advantage.

Venezuela and Ecuador probably on paper have the advantage in the air but in reality maybe not. I remember a few years back Chavez had some great idea to reclaim the ABC islands off of  his coast from the Dutch using his military but then decided against it. Considering the RNAF would have had to stage any air and naval counter actions from St Marteen over a 1000 kms away he should have been able to pull off a Falklands type scenario fairly easily but he didn’t follow through. Maybe his airforce isn’t as good as he pretends it to be. Besides isn’;t he still using our old CF-5s?

Finally As T6 suggests there are more than a few other Latin American countries pissed off with Chavez now and a chance to help take him down for their own reasons can’t be not considered. No one would risk going against him if it was Chavez versus the Yanquis  for PR reasons, but supporting another smaller Latin America state that was attacked by Chavez the bully is another matter.
 
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080306/Venezuela_Colombia_080306/20080306?hub=World

Associated Press article

Venezuela: Colombia trade 'Coming down'

Updated Thu. Mar. 6 2008 1:58 PM ET

The Associated Press
CARACAS, Venezuela -- Venezuela is starting to block billions of dollars in Colombian imports and investment under orders from President Hugo Chavez, threatening economic havoc in both nations in response to a Colombian military attack on rebels hiding in Ecuador.

Chavez and Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa demanded international condemnation of Colombia's U.S.-allied government on Wednesday night, while Chavez predicted a sharp fall in the $6 billion annual Colombia-Venezuela trade: "That's coming down."

"We aren't interested in Colombian investments here," Chavez said, standing beside Correa. "Of the Colombian businesses that are here in Venezuela, we could nationalize some."

He said Venezuela will search for products from other countries to replace those from Colombia. Noting that Colombia traditionally supplies food to Venezuela, he said now "we can't depend on them, not even for a grain of rice."

Though Venezuelan officials express confidence they will quickly find replacements for Colombian goods, government critics say the move is bound to worsen shortages of basic foods from milk to chicken that were an annoyance in Venezuela well before a dispute that has ballooned into one of South America's most serious diplomatic crises in years.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe said the cross-border raid was justified because his government had repeatedly asked Ecuador to do something about leftist rebel camps on its territory, but was ignored.

"What does one do when bandits are shooting from the other side and the government doesn't do anything?" he asked leaders of national and international news organizations. "It's my job to defend 43 million Colombians."

War with a neighbor "doesn't even cross our minds," Uribe said during the three-hour meeting Wednesday night, originally off the record but authorized for publication on Thursday.

Venezuela and Ecuador have each sent thousands of soldiers to their borders with Colombia. Uribe said he would not mobilize troops.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday that the United States wants to see a diplomatic solution. The United States offered unqualified support to Colombia in the dispute, in contrast to almost every other country in the hemisphere.

"I do hope there will be a diplomatic outcome to this," Rice said in Belgium. "The situation shows that everyone needs to be vigilant about the use of border areas by terrorist organizations."

One opportunity will be a meeting of the Rio Group, which began with ministerial meetings Thursday in the Dominican Republic. At least 12 Latin American presidents -- including those from Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador -- are expected to meet Friday.

Bolivian Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca said the ministers would "see what we can do to help find a peaceful solution to this conflict through dialogue," although he added: "Solutions don't come overnight."

The Organization of American States on Wednesday approved a watered-down resolution calling Colombia's cross-border raid Saturday on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia camp a violation of Ecuador's sovereignty. It was sending a top-level delegation to help ease tensions, but stopped short of explicitly condemning the attack.

Chavez and Correa warned Wednesday night that the crisis would not end without clear, explicit international condemnation of the raid.

"The OAS resolution pleases us. We are pleased, but not satisfied," Correa said as he visited Chavez in Caracas. "This isn't going to cool down until the aggressor is condemned."

People prepared for marches Thursday in major Colombian and Latin American cities, as well as in the United States and Europe, to condemn Colombia's right-wing paramilitaries, which were formed to counter the guerrilla threat but grew into a threat of their own. The marches come a month after similar anti-guerrilla marches that drew millions into the streets.

The bombing and raid killed a top rebel leader, Raul Reyes, and 23 other guerrilla fighters who had set up a base just over a mile from the border inside Ecuador.

Colombia said documents found on a laptop at the bombed rebel camp show Chavez and Correa had ties with the rebels. Chavez laughed as he dismissed the accusations Wednesday.

Other documents from the laptop suggest Reyes was secretly negotiating with representatives of France and other European nations to win freedom for hostages including French-Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt and three American defense contractors.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy appealed directly to the rebels in an interview broadcast Wednesday night on Colombia's RCN television. He said Betancourt's release could persuade countries to no longer consider the FARC a terror group.

"If they let Ingrid Betancourt die, of course, there will be no discussion about that," he said in comments dubbed over in Spanish. "If they free Ingrid Betancourt, maybe some place in the world will see them a little differently."
 
CougarDaddy said:
Greattt....maybe Lumber should include Nicaraguan forces in his speculation/scenarios of a war between Colombia and its neighbors, even if Colombia does not share any borders with Nicaragua. Perhaps we underestimated the pull/influence that Chavez has on his fellow OAS members who are also left-leaning, besides Correa.

Ortega is still an old Sandanista  and Nicaragua has always coveted San Andres Island which is off it's coast.
 
Remember that Colombia lost was is now Panama in the early years of the 20th Century so that the Panama Canal could be built.
 
Danjanou said:
Ortega is still an old Sandanista  and Nicaragua has always coveted San Andres Island which is off it's coast.

I am willing to bet that Bolivia- which is currently ruled by the left-leaning Evo Morales, who is also another Chavez ally, IIRC- might almost certainly be the next to break off diplomatic relations.

Danjanou,

Hmm...in a worse case scenario- with Nicaragua, Bolivia added to the Venezuela and Ecuador vs. Colombia equation, will the addition of forces from these two other nations equalize/negate the land force advantage that Colombia has?

Doing a quick search on wikipedia shows the following:

-Nicaragua has 14,000 troops from all services (though Nicaragua does not share any borders with Colombia)

-Bolivia has 31,500 troops in its army  (though Bolivia is a land-locked country that does not share any borders with Colombia or any of Chavez's allies)

-As Lumber also stated earlier, Venezuela and Ecuador combined have a total of 148,000 servicemen from all services, while Colombia's Army has about 420,000 men, IIRC.

Comparing numbers on paper is one thing, but all of you are well aware that there is more that decides an outcome in war than paper strengths, such as quality of training of the troops in question.

 
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