Strategic war games used to be simple. Soldiers, defense consultants and others divvied up into Blue (allied) and Red (enemy) teams and then faced off in a series of moves roughly resembling chess. The point wasn't to predict the outcomes of future battles — though that sometimes happened — but to sort out how policies, tactics and weapons might perform in combat. A roll of the dice set a team's odds. Complicated mathematical formulas determined the outcome. And that worked pretty well up through the Cold War.
Today, dice seldom get rolled. In the wake of 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq, war games have had to evolve to remain relevant. Instead of a monolithic enemy, there are often several Red teams, fighting against each other as well as the Blue team. This complicates things for Red team players like me, but frankly, it's a fascinating way to make a living.
It's not just the Red teams that are changing; so is the definition of victory.
The outcome of many games is determined by a new addition, the Green team. Green represents the civilian population, the media and the international community — once bystanders, now the ultimate arbitrators. If Red or Blue kills civilians in a manner considered unnecessary in the process of winning a battle, for instance, it may lose Green team support, thus losing the war or at least the campaign.
Green team civilians might be divided into religious or ethnic segments that mirror the nation in the scenario. They might ally with Red or Blue as the game progresses. If one or more Green factions and the media (American public opinion) turn against Red or Blue, it does not matter how well their military forces do in combat...
...In the old days, a Red player needed only a reasonable knowledge of stodgy Soviet, North Korean or Iraqi tactics. Spontaneous action and adaptability were discouraged. Today, knowledge of conventional tactics is less important than understanding the enemies' cultures and predicting how they will react and adapt. Many of our current real-world opponents, for instance, behave more like street gangs than conventional armies.
The ideal Red player is a young, culturally aware former member of the group being portrayed....
...most [US] Defense Department war games are secret, and the talent pool is limited. Organizers have to fall back on retired military guys like me and academics who can get security clearances. What our future Red teams need are dedicated young expatriates or second-generation emigres from the Middle East, Latin America and Central and Southeast Asia...
