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Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

Remius

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Great move. Vote PPC, which assures a LPC victory, which definitely gets your guns taken away.

Or vote CPC, which is more than likely going to work quietly to clean up the mess on this file, or at least not make things worse.
Nanos is tracking another increase for the PPC. They have have more support apparently than the greens right now.

I haven’t seen today’s aggregate yet.

Nanos seems to have corrected the LPC jump from yesterday but pretty much has the LPC and CPC about 1 point apart.

So maybe it’s a combination of some disgruntled gun owners and SoCons moving to the PPC and some moderate centrists not trusting the CPC message as much.

keep in mind though this may be reactionary and come Election Day they may end up just voting CPC
 

ModlrMike

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The next milestone is the english language debate on Sep 9th. If Mr O'Toole can continue to look steady and measured, he should do well. The real goal should be to have the Liberals and NDP go after each other, while pinging the Liberals on their weak points. Further, he needs to ensure that he firmly smacks down the Liberals every time they bring up the spectre of Mr Harper. He also needs to remind the voters that Mr Trudeau doesn't think about monetary policy, something every voter should be reminded of every time they open their wallets.
 

Maxman1

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The sad thing is most of these people don't understand the politics behind his statements. And can't see it was a brilliant move to head the Libs off at the pass.

All they heard is the OIC won't be repealed right away.

Now they are going to throw our only chance away.

But the PPC might get a seat or two...

SMH.....

Perhaps the next promise should be to open the "Erin O'Toole Centre for Gun Owners Who Can't Read Good and Who Wanna Learn To Do Other Stuff Good Too."
 

Remius

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The next milestone is the english language debate on Sep 9th. If Mr O'Toole can continue to look steady and measured, he should do well. The real goal should be to have the Liberals and NDP go after each other, while pinging the Liberals on their weak points. Further, he needs to ensure that he firmly smacks down the Liberals every time they bring up the spectre of Mr Harper. He also needs to remind the voters that Mr Trudeau doesn't think about monetary policy, something every voter should be reminded of every time they open their wallets.
I think he needs to stay on message. Show that he is a safe alternative to the LPC. While some think his flip flop on guns was some sort of strategic move I think it was a misstep and damage control. He needs to avoid that. The LPC and others will attack him on that. They can frame it as a hidden agenda and if he changes that on a whim what else will he change? When he ran for the party leadership he said a lot of things he’s no longer saying or promoting. It could be viewed as just saying things to get elected and not actually do.

O’toole needs to be careful about the money policy side as the platform is very much similar to the Liberal one in that regard. Lots of spending, very little fiscal restraint and to be honest is using the “budget will balance itself” approach the liberals use.

stay on message , frame the useless election decision as nothing but a power grab. Explain why his housing plan is better and how his recovery plan is better.
 

brihard

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It also remains to be seen whether the real story out of the leadership debates is inside the building or outside. Given events in southern Ontario, there could be enough stupidity these next two nights to matter…
 

Remius

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It also remains to be seen whether the real story out of the leadership debates is inside the building or outside. Given events in southern Ontario, there could be enough stupidity these next two nights to matter…
And I suspect that could have an impact on some voters.
 

Halifax Tar

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It also remains to be seen whether the real story out of the leadership debates is inside the building or outside. Given events in southern Ontario, there could be enough stupidity these next two nights to matter…
Has their been a leader segments of our country hated more than JT ? Besides his father ?

These two are highly divisive personalities.
 

Blackadder1916

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Has their been a leader segments of our country hated more than JT ? Besides his father ?

Context of time and place.

While not a leader on the national stage (the Canadian "national" vice the Newfie "national" - we were our own country once), Joey Smallwood, the Premier of Newfoundland from Confederation in 1949 to 1972, was either loved or reviled. My grandfather (anti-Confederation) related one anecdote from the referendum campaign. He used to say "we had a rope over the lamp post and nearly got the noose round that little bastard's neck before the police arrived and he got away". Political hatred is nothing new, the only thing that's changed is the ease to spread the message.
 

OldSolduer

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Perhaps. Maybe that's my bias coming through. Never understood the "hatred" for Harper.
For a few reasons he was hated. First of all he wasn't given to melodramatics. He wasn't on his knees before the press giving free....you know.

Harper refused to engage with celebrities for the most part. For that very reason the "progressives" developed a distaste for him.
 

dimsum

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Perhaps. Maybe that's my bias coming through. Never understood the "hatred" for Harper.
Most of the same reasons they don't like O'Toole.

The big one I remember (because it was different) was that the scientific community hated him too, and they normally don't weigh in on these sorts of things.
 

Navy_Pete

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For a few reasons he was hated. First of all he wasn't given to melodramatics. He wasn't on his knees before the press giving free....you know.

Harper refused to engage with celebrities for the most part. For that very reason the "progressives" developed a distaste for him.
Unless he could give them a Queen's Diamond Jubilee medal! 😁

 

Remius

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Today’s aggregate poll from Eric Grenier


LPC is up CPC is down making them pretty much in a dead heat.

of note is the PPC gaining more support and catching up to the Bloc. I doubt this translates to seats but some pundits are predicting Bernier may win his riding.


Nanos has LPC down a point but the CPC stagnant. But has the PPC and Bloc in line with the aggregate.

Last night’s French debate I think won’t move the needle much. Nothing really shocking came from it from what I could see. O’Toole did a good job staying on message and the attacks on Trudeau for a needless election were well placed.

We’ll see what tonight’s English debate brings as language won’t be as much of barrier and more of English Canada will be watching.
 

dimsum

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Today’s aggregate poll from Eric Grenier


LPC is up CPC is down making them pretty much in a dead heat.

of note is the PPC gaining more support and catching up to the Bloc. I doubt this translates to seats but some pundits are predicting Bernier may win his riding.
So I'm confused at the CBC site. The CPC is holding a very slim lead to the LPC, but they project more LPC seats than CPC? How does that work?
 

Edward Campbell

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So I'm confused at the CBC site. The CPC is holding a very slim lead to the LPC, but they project more LPC seats than CPC? How does that work?

The fact is that the Liberal vote is very "efficient:" they win lots of seats with <40% of the vote. The CPC vote is "inefficient:" they win several seats with >50% of the vote. Thus, the Liberals and CPC can be tied in the popular vote or, as in 2019, the CPC can 'win' the popular vote but the Liberals will still win more seats and formed the government.

There is an analog in the US system. Mrs Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but Mr Trump won the electoral college.

Also, don't forget this:

1631199541355.png

That red area is where the LPC wins so many seats with <40% of the vote!
 

Remius

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So I'm confused at the CBC site. The CPC is holding a very slim lead to the LPC, but they project more LPC seats than CPC? How does that work?
Seat distribution and voter efficiency in each.
 
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