Canada-US Trade Relations

[Fishbone Jones]

For the sake of all Canadians, I did not want to see the Liberals fail on this file, but it does seem that they got an ok deal inspite of themselves.

Classic creating a pool of shit to swim in and coming out smelling like a rose. Trudeau should be buying lottery tickets and calling an early election before his inept luck runs out. From my perspective the US negotiators saved our asses because they really wanted a deal. Not because Trudeau and Freeland did a good job.

Kudos to the hard work and people behind the scenes that made this happen, despite the ineptitude, in the field of of negotiation, of our team leaders.

 

[FJAG]

I sh*t you not. This comes from an interview Trump gave a few days ago concerning NAFTA 2.0:

Reporter: So will you pull out?

Trump: I'm not going to use the name NAFTA. I refuse to use it. I've seen thousands and plants and factories close. I've seen millions of jobs lost to auto companies that move. Mexico has 25% of our auto business now because of NAFTA. Under our deal, not going to happen any more. Hate to tell you, it's not. We're going to keep companies.

I told the Mexicans, we have to keep companies, but they're getting a lot also. They're getting other things. They're got getting a lot of good things. Mexico made a very good deal. But with Canada, it's very if we made a deal with Canada, which is a -- you know, good chance still, but I'm not making anything near what they want to do.

Reporter: But are you going to notify Congress you're pulling out of NAFTA?

Trump: What we're probably going to do is call it the USMC, like the United States Marine Corps, which I love. General Kelly likes it even more. Where is General Kelly? He likes that. USMC. Which would be US, Mexico, Canada.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/01/politics/trump-nafta-usmca-name/index.html

:facepalm:

 

[Rifleman62]

The new NAFTA is now the USMCA. Que the Village People.

 

[brihard]

Classic creating a pool of crap to swim in and coming out smelling like a rose. Trudeau should be buying lottery tickets and calling an early election before his inept luck runs out. From my perspective the US negotiators saved our asses because they really wanted a deal. Not because Trudeau and Freeland did a good job.

Kudos to the hard work and people behind the scenes that made this happen, despite the ineptitude, in the field of of negotiation, of our team leaders.

No, they stood their ground enough on the issues that matter, they let the clock run knowing a midterm is coming that may strip Trump of his ability to get Congress to ratify anything, they engaged Mexico as well as US congressional leaders to push for reason and compromise, and they achieved about as good a win as we could. I know you’re utterly unwilling to give our current government credit for anything, but on this they did a pretty good job.

 

[AlexanderM]

No, they stood their ground enough on the issues that matter, they let the clock run knowing a midterm is coming that may strip Trump of his ability to get Congress to ratify anything, they engaged Mexico as well as US congressional leaders to push for reason and compromise, and they achieved about as good a win as we could. I know you’re utterly unwilling to give our current government credit for anything, but on this they did a pretty good job.

Agreed! They did a very good job in a difficult situation.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

No, they stood their ground enough on the issues that matter, they let the clock run knowing a midterm is coming that may strip Trump of his ability to get Congress to ratify anything, they engaged Mexico as well as US congressional leaders to push for reason and compromise, and they achieved about as good a win as we could. I know you’re utterly unwilling to give our current government credit for anything, but on this they did a pretty good job.

Obviously,YMMV. I'm not as enamored with our leadership as you are. I don't believe our PM and Freeland are as smart and savvy as you do. You can opine as well as I can. It means nada to either of us. As I said earlier, I believe the back room negotiators, on both sides, made this happen despite the efforts of Trudeau and freeland. They weren't after a deal. They were after election points fighting with Trump. But that's just me, just like your retort holds no more weight or authority.

 

[brihard]

I’m not enamoured do our leadership at all, and at this point I intend to vote against them. That notwithstanding, they pushed back against a bullying approach from the south, and they appear to have met with considerable success.

Freeland is no dummy- Rhodes Scholarships don’t come in boxes of cereal. She likely knows well enough to engage and listen to her experts, which gives her a significant advantage over trade negotiation by the diktat of Trump. In the end our government - again one I am generally unhappy with - has done quite well on this one. Credit where it is due.

 

[ballz]

The only thing they did wrong was to not give up supply management and they didn't raise the de minimus high enough... it's so funny to me (the sad kind of funny) that our own gov't (of all stripes) continues to hurt Canadians with such self-inflicted, punitive protectionism.

 

[AlexanderM]

I’m not enamoured do our leadership at all, and at this point I intend to vote against them. That notwithstanding, they pushed back against a bullying approach from the south, and they appear to have met with considerable success.

Freeland is no dummy- Rhodes Scholarships don’t come in boxes of cereal. She likely knows well enough to engage and listen to her experts, which gives her a significant advantage over trade negotiation by the diktat of Trump. In the end our government - again one I am generally unhappy with - has done quite well on this one. Credit where it is due.

I didn't vote for JT but might next time based on how they handled this situation. The way they, for the most part, didn't react, didn't escalate and waited until Trump had to make a deal to save his own political life in November, which he may have done. The deal we got was acceptable and I see that as being a win.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The only thing they did wrong was to not give up supply management and they didn't raise the de minimus high enough... it's so funny to me (the sad kind of funny) that our own gov't (of all stripes) continues to hurt Canadians with such self-inflicted, punitive protectionism.

Yup, a $20 increase in the de minimum to $40 was a clear winner for team trudeau. Canadians will be going to the US in droves to take advantage of that. : I never agreed with supply management in the first place, so I'm glad to see a chunk taken out of that. If it translates to lost vote for the grits, so much the better. It'll be interesting to see how Canada is going to deal with Chinese steel now that the tariffs take a bite out of dumping it in the US.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

John Ivison: Trudeau's claim of victory in trade deal is hollow - Canada was played
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/john-ivison-trudeaus-claim-of-victory-in-trade-deal-is-hollow-canada-was-played#

Today is a great day for Canada,” Justin Trudeau proclaimed, sounding like King Pyrrhus of Epirus, just after he lost the bulk of his army in battle against the Romans.

As with Pyrrhus, another victory like today and we will be utterly ruined."

More at link.

 

[Remius]

Chantal Hébert has a slightly different take on the deal.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2018/10/01/trade-agreement-is-unlikely-to-hurt-liberal-fortunes.html

This in particular: “Even before Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer had issued a single comment, a host of Conservative luminaries had come out to commend the agreement — starting with former interim leader Rona Ambrose and former prime minister Brian Mulroney. Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister and Alberta Conservative Leader Jason Kenney also had good words for the deal.”

 

[a_majoor]

I have the feeling there is a lot more than meets the eye. Some of the wording seemed a bit "weaselie" to me, particularly the issue of "Side Letters". Do these mean that issues like Chapter 19 are being revised out of sight/out of mind and Canada will find itself on the short end of the stick again? (A "Side Letter" review of Chapter 19 will essentially be the 5 year sunset clause the Americans insisted on all along). What else is being dealt with via "Side Letters"?

The only thing which this really does is provide a fig leaf for the Canadian negotiating team: they signed a deal (and look at how even the naming of the deal is worded-"United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement"), but there are a lot of things that are going to be changed via processes like Side Letters, and not to our liking.

 

[Infanteer]

I was going to post Ivison's editorial, but recceguy beat me to it.  Its worth the read before we pop open the champagne bottles and call this a win.  That being said, I'm not sure if a Conservative Party government could have done any better: the administration to the South has demonstrated time and again that it has interests - its own - and not friends.  Leaders who tried to schmooze the President (Abe, Macron) got their fingers burnt.

Lesson to be learned?  As Ted Campbell continuously points out on his blog, we better work on diversifying our trade - if anything to reduce our vulnerability the next time this happens.

 

[FJAG]

I don't think that it's being a Marxist unicorn which Trump doesn't like. I think he dislikes anyone who won't fawn on him and kiss his butt. He's not the type to be impressed with reasoned opposition.

I'm not sure if Conservatives could have gotten a better deal out of Trump because I, like you and most of us, have absolutely no idea what his end game was. This is a guy who given a name change from NAFTA to USMCA alone with nothing else would have spouted off that he's gained a massive victory and his base would have eaten it up as gospel truth. Giving him a few extra percentage points of milk quota put the icing on the cake.

From what I can see there are several changes which seem to have zero or negligible impact today but could have some effects a decade down the road as our respective economies grow or change. I think that the biggest target for critics of the Liberals in the coming days will be the notifications we will have to give if seeking a treaty with a "non-market economy" (i.e. China). Article 32.10 requires that a party give notice and is required to make various disclosures to other parties if seeking to make an agreement with such an entity. Some are criticizing this as a loss of sovereignty but I note that the article is reciprocal so the US has the same obligations to us and Mexico.

A copy of the agreement text is here:

https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement/united-states-mexico

I'm neither prepared to applaud nor chastise the Liberals on this one. Let's hope it works out okay in the end.

[cheers]

<Removed inflammatory comment>

 

[Remius]

Not really.  trump,started this. 

It’s over.  As far as I am concerned Canada stood firm against artificial deadlines and I am sure was ready to walk away knowing that the US needed a win on trade going into the midterms.  I am also sure that they read it right and to a gamble that Congress was not likely to back Trump’s bi lateral plan.

The anti Trudeau crowd was so sure that the Liberals wanted to scuttle the whole thing for political gain.  Well that didn’t happen.  I know it is hard to accept for some but they got it done and likely scored political points at the same time.  I guess some people didn’t see that coming.

 

[brihard]

And don’t forget, we went into this with a gun to the head of our auto sector, after already suffering an attack - and I choose that word deliberately - on our steel and aluminum. Trump himself has spoken of a trade war. Well if it’s a war, Trump is on one side and Canada is on the other, and you can only pick one or the other. In the end, despite the blustering and threats, it appears the adults prevailed and we have at least reached a détent, though much remains to be seen.

Trump will continue to have his supporters and apologists here who value his politics above our own economy, and value his populism over common decency. It is what it is. We have at least come out of this one pretty OK, and given the strength the US wields and our utter economic dependence on them, we hav some key victories in the preservation of the dispute resolution and the built in tariff exemptions for cars. We weathered the storm well, and hopefully in another month he will lose Congress and we will be less subject to his petulant outbursts, at least in tangible terms.

 

[tomahawk6]

Article about Mexico-US-Canada trade and the role of Jared Kushner in saving the deal. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta-kushner/how-trumps-son-in-law-helped-a-1-2-trillion-trade-zone-stay-intact-idUSKCN1MC04M

 

[Remius]

Article about Mexico-US-Canada trade and the role of Jared Kushner in saving the deal. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta-kushner/how-trumps-son-in-law-helped-a-1-2-trillion-trade-zone-stay-intact-idUSKCN1MC04M

Interesting article.  Thanks.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Admitting I'm no saint myself perhaps in the name of decorum in the politics threads we should try and avoid subtle jabs at one another?