Alberta Election (23 Apr 12)

[Fishbone Jones]

Sorry, that went right over my head. Care to educate me?

LMGTFY

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Judean+People%27s+Front

 

[dapaterson]

So, in Alberta people should "Always look on the bright side of life"?

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Kind of makes you want to ask  "Are you the Judean People's Front?"

Bloody splitters....

 

[Jed]

Seen. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Uh, oh ...

Apparently Premier Redford will hold a news conference this evening. Her approval rating is 18%, far lower than the Wildrose, Liberal or NDP leaders.

And it gets worse for the PCs in Alberta ...

The challenge facing the next Alberta PC leaders ~ Jim Prentice?
Source: http://www.insightswest.com/news/alberta/opposition-wildrose-party-riding-high-in-alberta/

Now, in fairness, both Wildrose and the PCs have gained, mostly at the expense of the provincial Liberals, but it will be a major, uphill struggle for the PCs.

 

[Edward Campbell]

More on the Alberta challenge in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/alberta-premiers-office-might-be-poisoned-chalice-for-jim-prentice/article18393471/#dashboard/follows/

Alberta premier’s office might be poisoned chalice for Jim Prentice

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Josh Wingrove
Ottawa — The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, May. 02 2014

The Jim Prentice speaking circuit has run through Ottawa in recent months – a pair of relatively wonkish speeches about Canada’s energy future and failures on the environment file.

Not the stuff barnburners are made of, but the ex-cabinet figure and then-CIBC-vice-chairman nonetheless still casts a long shadow in the capital – and the speeches gave an impression of a man (and rumoured aspirant to the Prime Minister’s Office) not quite done with politics.

Will another gig suffice?

Between Ottawa speeches, Alison Redford’s tenure as PC leader in Mr. Prentice’s home province met its unceremonious end after a long line of spending scandals. Mr. Prentice is now on the verge of formally announcing he’ll run to replace her.

He is seen by many as a shoo-in – though the party’s last two front-runners saw their campaigns fail, and a poll this week showed only 33 per cent of Tory voters from the last election think Mr. Prentice is the best fit.

But Mr. Prentice’s presence will scare off other contenders. Alberta MP James Rajotte, who’d been considering a bid, won’t run now, saying flatly this week that “certainly [Mr. Prentice’s announcement had] a huge impact in terms of my decision, absolutely.” One former provincial cabinet minister, Ken Hughes, is running. Other rumoured candidates have elected not to. Mr. Prentice may end up breaking the unlucky streak of the Alberta PC frontrunner, and become premier.

Then what?

The Alberta PC party is both a 43-year dynasty and a poisoned chalice. The same poll, from Insights West, put the Tories at 21 per cent in the polls, well behind the right-wing, Official Opposition Wildrose Party, at 50 per cent. Wildrose is raising more money than the PCs, even before a leadership race that will further tap Tory donors, and receipts continue to trickle out through access-to-information laws providing a series of new explosive controversies for the venerable Tories.

Some in Ottawa are, as such, cautious about jumping to conclusions.

“Look, I know Jim, I served with Jim, I like Jim, he’s a good guy. But I honestly believe that it’s going to be a really big job for any one person to be able to change the culture of entitlement that has absolutely subsumed the PC Party of Alberta over the last couple of years,” Alberta MP Brian Storseth said in an interview. Mr. Storseth is a former Tory staffer but has since backed Wildrose.

“It’s not my job to point out Jim’s flaws or Jim’s upsides. I think that’ll be fleshed out in the leadership. But what I do know is the trust in the PC Party of Alberta, a party I worked for for a lot of years, has really been damaged in Alberta. The trust of all politicians has kind of been damaged.”

Mr. Rajotte said much the same, acknowledging people flatly told him “You should sort of stay away from provincial politics at the moment.”

One prominent Conservative, in Mr. Prentice’s hometown Calgary, said he faces a long climb even if he wins the leadership. According to the Conservative, who spoke on condition of anonymity, Mr. Prentice as premier would need to reduce the size of Alberta’s cabinet, dump toxic incumbents and staff, bring in fresh blood, “revitalize” the 87 electoral district associations, woo Wildrose supporters, fend off Wildrose attacks, “recruit star candidates to a brand that sucks,” endure the long-line of spending issues that are still trickling out, and raise money.

The last point is a tall order.

The party ended the last fiscal year nearly $1-million in net-debt, and raised $769,000 in the last quarter (in a province with high donation limits and where corporate donations are permitted). Wildrose, meanwhile, had $430,000 in net assets, out-raised the Tories for the year and raised $891,000 in the same quarter.

In other words, Wildrose is soaring in the polls, raising more money and in far better financial shape.

If Mr. Prentice – a man from the same progressive wing of the party that delivered Ms. Redford – runs and wins, he’ll have to turn that all around before the next election, expected in early 2016.

Mr. Storseth said Albertans need political leaders who put them before partisanship, but said Mr. Prentice has a steep climb.

“Obviously he’s looked at this, but this is going to be a big job for any one person,” Mr. Storseth said, adding he doesn’t have a PC membership and declining to say if he’s supporting Wildrose. Asked what profile Mr. Prentice has in Alberta, Mr. Storseth replied: “I don’t know what Albertans know about him. Jim’s going to find that out pretty soon. If he does announce this, I wish him the best.”

Josh Wingrove is a parliamentary reporter in Ottawa.

Can the Alberta PCs be saved? Maybe ...

Can Jim Prentice save them? In my guesstimation (I'm an outsider) he's the best choice for that Herculean task, I doubt anyone else could save the PCs and I suspect it will be tough for Prentice.

On the surface, and based upon Alberta's electoral history, Wildrose is set to become the government and it will stay in power for 25+ years. The PCs will be reduced to rump status. Danielle Smith is an attractive leader, even though she made some serious missteps in the last campaign. Alberta is ready for a change and it is ready stay on a relatively conservative path, which is not the path Premier Redford laid out for it.

But, the problems that Josh Wingrove outlines ~ bloated cabinet, "toxic incumbents" in many seats, overspending, sense of entitlement, voter fatigue with the PCs ~ can be turned around and even overcome ... with radical action.

Is Jim Prentice a radical? I think he can be ...

Even if Jim Prentice fails and loses the next Alberta Election (2016?) he will have shown Canadian Conservatives that he's not afraid of a challenge and, assuming, as I do, that he will make many, popular changes in Alberta, and that he can bring change. Plus he will have put his face very, very much 'out front' of the Canadian people. That might be just what the CPC wants in, say, 2018 (when he's still in his early 60s) as a leader.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And Jim Prentice easily wins the PC leadership on the first ballot - 17,000+ to 2,000+ for each of his two competitors - and is premier designate of Alberta. His real challenge is to reform the PCs and hold off an increasingly popular Wildrose Party.

 

[Edward Campbell]

In the Globe and Mail, Gary Mason examines some of the challenges that face Jim Prentice in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/as-jim-prentice-enters-pc-leadership-role-what-will-happen-with-party-tensions/article20383557/#dashboard/follows/

What Jim Prentice's PC leadership win means for party tensions

GARY MASON
Edmonton — The Globe and Mail

Last updated Sunday, Sep. 07 2014

Jim Prentice wore a broad smile after being declared winner of the Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership convention Saturday evening. But surely it masked concerns he must have about the state of the legendary political institution he is inheriting.

When the government falls out of favour with the public in Alberta, the provincial Tories generally take a hit too. The level of that anger was evident when the party disclosed that only 23,000 people cast ballots in the first-ever use of an electronic voting system to elect a leader.

That total is far less than the 59,000 members who cast first-ballot votes in the last leadership battle in 2011 and a mere shadow of the 97,000 who participated in the 2006 Tory leadership contest. Two years of near-endless scandals and controversies have, not surprisingly, turned many off of the Progressive Conservative brand in Alberta. Now Mr. Prentice will have 18 months to try and repair the massive damage that has been done to a party that recently established a record as the longest-serving government in the history of the country – 43 years and seven days as of Saturday.

His first job, however, will be trying to unify a divided and embittered caucus that has been rife with internal tensions for most of the past two years. In many respects, the mud-slinging and recriminations that highlighted the leadership campaign was representative of the type of dysfunction that has characterized caucus dealings in the last while.

Many of the government’s most powerful members, such as finance minister Doug Horner, have been linked to controversies from the Alison Redford era. It is almost a certainty that Mr. Prentice will change many faces in cabinet, with many familiar names finding new seats in the government back-benches.

Anyone who has been tainted by the Redford-era scandals will likely be shunned under Prentice’s leadership. This will lead many former ministers to consider retirement, which is part of the new leader’s plan. Renewal will be a main theme of the first year of his premiership. There has been speculation that Mr. Prentice could even bring in a non-elected member or two to his cabinet – although that would likely just inflame tensions in a caucus that doesn’t need more reasons to be unhappy.

Mr. Prentice will also have to shore up the party’s dismal finances, which took a huge hit under Ms. Redford’s leadership. The party is in debt and will need to raise between $4 and $5-million to fight the next election. That means the new leader will be a fixture at rubber-chicken fundraisers throughout the province over the next several months.

He will also have to worry about getting elected in a byelection, likely in Calgary, the city he represented in the House of Commons for six years. There could be several by-elections, in fact, which will provide Mr. Prentice an opportunity to bring some fresh blood into the caucus (assuming they are victorious) and potentially into his cabinet as well. He will likely be trying to persuade some big names to try politics as a member of his team. A few star candidates could help the new leader convince the public that perhaps it should give the Tories another chance under Mr. Prentice’s direction.

Many believe it won’t make a difference, that Albertans believe it is time for a change. But then, the Tories have been counted out before. What is certain, is that the new leader of Alberta’s natural governing party has his work cut out for him.

In almost 110 years Alberta has had four political dynasties:

    It was Liberal from 1905 until 1921 (16 years);
 
    The United Farmers held power form 1921 through 1930 (nine years);

    Social Credit governed from 1930 until 1967 (37 years); and

    The Progressive Conservatives have governed, continuously from 1967 until today (47 years).

The big question is: are Albertans ready for a change ~ presumably to Wildrose, after all 47 years is a very long time ~ or can Jim Prentice reshape the Conservatives into what Alberta wants?

 

[Kirkhill]

As a johnny-come-lately Albertan - with access to a bunch of Alberta farmers and small town businessmen - my guess is that Danielle Smith and Wildrose are closer than ever to replacing the Tories.

Alison brought her pals in to the Tories and drove the Wildrose Tories away.  He pals have left with her and the Wildrose Tories are staying away.  They're not coming back.  Jim is left with a rump.  He may be a nice and decent guy - but there is an unwholesome aroma surrounding the rest of the organization.  47 years is a long time.

In 1992, when the PCs first opened up their leadership vote to all interested Albertans, 78,251 votes were cast in the second ballot that resulted in Ralph Klein being elected leader of the PCs and Premier. In 2006, when the PCs needed to replace Klein, participation surged and 144,289 Albertans showed up for the second round of voting. By 2011, when it was time to replace Ed Stelmach, public participation fell back to 1992 levels when 78,176 people cast ballots in the second round of voting.

Based on some very rough math (population statistics at the time of each vote and the assumption that 70 percent of Albertans are over age 14 and eligible to participate), turnout for the PC race was about five percent in 1992, six percent in 2006, and three percent in 2011. I’m sure people will want to challenge my math, but the sad truth is that only a small subset of the population is likely to participate in the selection of the next Premier of Alberta.

Calgary Herald June 14

1992    78,000 5%
2006 144,000  6% (massive population explosion in 14 years)
2011    78,000 3%
2014    23,000 <1%

I'm going to go out on a limb and call it for Danielle at a dawdle.

 

[stealthylizard]

If she can keep a muzzle on some of her candidates when it comes to social issues.  Focus on the economy and infrastructure, and there is no reason they can't win.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Sad news, tweeted by Danielle Smith: Alberta political guru Rod Love has died of cancer.

He was a true fiscal conservative and a close advisor to Ralph Klein as both mayor of Calgary and premier of Alberta and, later, to Ms Smith.

 

[Kirkhill]

Sad news, tweeted by Danielle Smith: Alberta political guru Rod Love has died of cancer.

He was a true fiscal conservative and a close advisor to Ralph Klein as both mayor of Calgary and premier of Alberta and, later, to Ms Smith.

The era ends.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Alberta PCs won all six by-electiuons, including a seat for Jim Prentice; story here. Wildrose says they were all "safe" urban seats and they will do better in the general election next year.