Author Topic: Iran Super Thread- Merged  (Read 584171 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 86,425
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,589
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2550 on: August 07, 2016, 11:25:05 »
CNN, ever loyal water carriers for the Democrats, are playing an episode of Anthony Bourdain's Parts Unknown where he goes to Iran and visits people and eats the food. The show only makes a few references to the Basji, the government and no references at all to the Iranian government's support of terrorism, nuclear program or propping up of the Syrian regime. Showing one side of the story to downplay other aspects of the Iranian regime.

Kind of ironic when the biggest story *should* be the payment of $400 million dollars in cash to free four American hostages.

Nothing to see here, move right along...

Excellent pints.The regime admitted today that they had executed a nuclear scientist for spying.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-nuclear-scientist-us-spy-mystery-reportedly-executed-093152564.html

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran executed a nuclear scientist who defected to the U.S. in 2009 and later returned to the Islamic Republic under mysterious circumstances a year later, authorities said Sunday, acknowledging for the first time that they had secretly detained, tried and convicted a man authorities once heralded as a hero.

Shahram Amiri vanished in 2009 while on a religious pilgrimage to Muslim holy sites in Saudi Arabia, only to reappear a year later in a series of online videos filmed in the U.S. He then walked into the Iranian interests section at the Pakistani Embassy in Washington and demanded to be sent home.

In interviews, Amiri described being kidnapped and held against his will by Saudi and American spies, while U.S. officials said he was to receive millions of dollars for his help in understanding Iran's contested nuclear program. He was hanged the same week as Tehran executed a group of militants, a year after his country agreed to a landmark accord to limit uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2551 on: August 07, 2016, 20:15:00 »
Months after the deal, the rift remains between these 2 allies:

Defense News

Quote
US-Israel Reignite Rift on Iran Nuke Deal
Barbara Opall-Rome, Defense News 9:04 a.m. EDT August 7, 2016

TEL AVIV – After an extended truce over opposing positions on the US-led nuclear deal with Iran, the US and Israel rekindled their public rift on the issue, with President Barack Obama suggesting Israel own up to misplaced hysteria while Israel’s Defense Ministry likened the accord to pre-World War II appeasement of Nazi Germany.

The firestorm provoked banner headlines Sunday in Israeli daily newspapers and hit as Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, and his head of planning, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, were returning after a week of US-based discussions on an historical expansion of bilateral cooperation and US funding to Israel.

It was sparked by Obama’s Aug. 4 Pentagon press conference, in which he noted that the military and security community of Israel – “the country that was most opposed to the deal” now realizes that “this has been a game changer.”

(...SNIPPED)

Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline milnews.ca

  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Relic
  • *
  • 404,375
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 21,350
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2552 on: August 08, 2016, 07:51:36 »
CNN, ever loyal water carriers for the Democrats, are playing an episode of Anthony Bourdain's Parts Unknown where he goes to Iran and visits people and eats the food. The show only makes a few references to the Basji, the government and no references at all to the Iranian government's support of terrorism, nuclear program or propping up of the Syrian regime. Showing one side of the story to downplay other aspects of the Iranian regime.
1)  I don't know which CNN feed you get, but there appears to be one or two stories from them on the $ issue -- almost as many as Fox News over the past few days -- or is Google in the Dems' pocket, too?  ;)
2)  I've watched a lot of food shows, and I don't remember seeing a lot of them with politics/human rights mentioned - can you share any you've encountered that CNN could have shown instead?

Not having your "white hot anger" story as the lead all day, every day =/= Democratic sympathies
Excellent pints.The regime admitted today that they had executed a nuclear scientist for spying.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-nuclear-scientist-us-spy-mystery-reportedly-executed-093152564.html
Live by the sword, indeed - a good reminder for those who say negotiating can solve ALL woes with ALL foes ...
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 86,425
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,589
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2553 on: August 08, 2016, 08:24:35 »
Iran is back to threatening the destruction of Israel.Just one minor detail is Israel's nuclear force. >:D

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/majid-rafizadeh/iran-is-ready-to-attack-i_b_11382198.html

The tension between Israel and Iran appears to be heightening. Hossein Salami, deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), recently said: “Hezbollah has 100,000 missiles that are ready to hit Israel to liberate the occupied Palestinian territories if the Zionist regime repeats its past mistakes.”
 
He added: “Today, the grounds for the annihilation and collapse of the Zionist regime are [present] more than ever.” Salami warned that if Israel made the “wrong move,” it would come under attack.
 
A few weeks ago, a senior adviser to the IRGC’s elite Quds Force, Ahmad Karimpour, said Iran could destroy Israel “in less than eight minutes” if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave the order.

Offline milnews.ca

  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Relic
  • *
  • 404,375
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 21,350
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2554 on: August 08, 2016, 10:08:38 »
Just one minor detail is Israel's nuclear force. >:D
"Allegedly", anyway ...   :whistle:
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2555 on: August 22, 2016, 23:11:45 »
Although this was such a short stint, their strikes last week demonstrated that the Russians were capable of launching strikes from Iran against Syrian rebels:

Canadian Press

Quote
Iran: Russia has stopped using Iran base for Syria strikes
[The Canadian Press]

August 22, 2016

Iran: Russia has stopped using Iran base for Syria strikes

TEHRAN, Iran — Russia has stopped using an Iranian air base for launching airstrikes on Syria for the time being, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said Monday, just hours after the Iranian defence minister criticized Moscow for having "kind of show-off and ungentlemanly" attitude by publicizing their actions.

Moscow, which had used the Shahid Nojeh Air Base to refuel its bombers striking Syria at least three times last week, confirmed that all Russian warplanes that were based in Iran have returned to Russia.

A statement issued by the Russian Defence Ministry said Monday that as long as Iran agreed, Russia could use the Iranian air base again, "depending on the situation" in Syria.

(...SNIPPED)

« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 23:15:52 by S.M.A. »
Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Iranian vessels "intercept" destroyer USS Nitze
« Reply #2556 on: August 24, 2016, 22:20:53 »
The IRGC at it again, tempting fate with the USN:

Reuters

Quote
Iran vessels make 'high speed intercept' of U.S. ship - defence official
Reuters

5 hrs ago

WASHINGTON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Four vessels from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) "harassed" a U.S. destroyer on Tuesday by carrying out a "high speed intercept" in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. defence official said on Wednesday.

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said two of the Iranian vessels came within 300 yards of the USS Nitze in an incident that was "unsafe and unprofessional."

"The Iranian high rate of closure...created a dangerous, harassing situation that could have led to further escalation including additional defensive measures by Nitze," the official said.

(...SNIPPED)
Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline Lumber

  • Donor
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 41,314
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,616
Re: Iranian vessels "intercept" destroyer USS Nitze
« Reply #2557 on: August 25, 2016, 08:33:26 »
The IRGC at it again, tempting fate with the USN:

Reuters

Having been there
"Aboard his ship, there is nothing outside a captain's control." - Captain Sir Edward Pellew

“Extremes to the right and to the left of any political dispute are always wrong.”
― Dwight D. Eisenhower

Death before dishonour! Nothing before coffee!

Online jollyjacktar

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 130,932
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,445
  • My uncle F/Sgt W.H.S. Buckwell KIA 14/05/43 22YOA
Re: Iranian vessels "intercept" destroyer USS Nitze
« Reply #2558 on: August 25, 2016, 10:10:12 »
The IRGC at it again, tempting fate with the USN:

Reuters

Shame the USN didn't have an directed EMP weapon they could zap them with.  Let them drift with the tides then.
I'm just like the CAF, I seem to have retention issues.

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2559 on: August 25, 2016, 19:51:31 »
A T-90 copy?

National Interest

Quote
Iran's 'New' Karrar Tank: "One of the Most Advanced Tanks in the World"?
The National Interest 15 hours ago

In March, Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan — Iran’s defense minister — claimed that a new, unseen Iranian tank called the Karrar “is one of the most advanced tanks in the world.” He further suggested that the “tank [is] 100 percent Iranian made and it can even be superior than [the] T-90 in some degrees.” Then in August, a tank with a close resemblance to the Russian-made T-90MS appeared on Iranian television. It flew a green, white and red Iranian flag from the turret … while spinning donuts. It’s impossible to draw any conclusions about the new tank based on a grainy split second of video footage. It could be the Karrar — but even that raises more questions. A “Karrar” might be the Iranian name for ...

(...SNIPPED)
Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Iranian vessels harass more USN ships in 3 more incidents
« Reply #2560 on: August 25, 2016, 20:25:02 »
More incidents:

Defense News

Quote
More Naval Incidents Reported in Persian Gulf
By: Christopher P. Cavas, August 25, 2016
WASHINGTON -- Three more close encounters have been reported between US Navy warships and vessels operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy (IRGCN). In one instance, a US warship fired warning shots at an Iranian vessel.

And in an incident taking place Aug. 15, Guards vessels launched rockets in exercises a few miles away from two US Navy ships.

(...SNIPPED)

Quote
In the first incident, as reported by US defense officials, the US patrol coastal ships Tempest and Squall were patrolling in international waters in the northern Gulf. Three IRGCN vessels approached at high speed and crossed the bow of the Tempest at 600 yards on three separate occasions. Tempest sounded five short blasts from the ship’s whistle, indicating the maneuvers were unsafe, and attempted to establish radio communications, apparently without success.

Later that same day Tempest and Squall were harassed by an Iranian Naser-class patrol boat, of a type known to be operated by the Guards. That vessel approached Tempest head-on to within 200 yards, said Cmdr. Bill Urban, a spokesman for the US Navy’s Central Command (NAVCENT) in Bahrain.


(...END EXCERPT)
Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2561 on: August 29, 2016, 20:44:53 »
Why the maritime arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps won't stop coming:

Washington Post (video report)

Quote
Why Iran keeps harassing the U.S. Navy
The Washington Post

Duration: 02:04 3 days ago

Recent incidents between the U.S. Navy and Iran are the latest signs of friction between the two country's near Iran’s coast.
Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2562 on: December 16, 2016, 11:50:31 »
Probably only a matter of time before a nuke accident happens in the Strait of Hormuz then?

The Hill

Quote
Iran to build nuclear-powered vessels in response to US "violation"
Iran announced Tuesday that it will instruct its scientists to create nuclear-powered marine vessels in response to what it sees as a U.S. "violation" of a nuclear agreement with the nation.

Following the decision of Congress to extend a portion of U.S. sanctions against the country, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani revealed the orders to build a "nuclear propeller to be used in marine transportation," but would not clarify if the program will be used for producing nuclear-powered submarines, according to Reuters.

It is also unclear if Iran will enrich its uranium above the maximum level set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in order to properly develop such a technology.

(...SNIPPED)
« Last Edit: December 16, 2016, 11:56:50 by S.M.A. »
Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline CBH99

  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • 17,255
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 545
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2563 on: December 16, 2016, 16:10:26 »
I wouldn't worry about it too much.

I don't think Israel or Saudi Arabia will let Iran 'formally' destabilize the region any more than it already does, with or without a formal agreement.

In an article I was reading just recently (I think it was on DefenseNews, but I'll source it later) - both Israel & Saudi Arabia seem allied in the sense that they both view Iranian supported groups/extremism as a common enemy.
Fortune Favours the Bold...and the Smart.

Wouldn't it be nice to have some Boondock Saints kicking around?

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 182,455
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,201
  • Freespeecher
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2564 on: February 25, 2017, 15:35:06 »
Living by the sword means eventually having to face it yourselves:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/02/20/can-iran-hold-together-long-term/

Quote
Can Iran Hold Together Long Term?

The New York Times offers a telling snapshot of Ahvaz, a majority Arab Iranian city near the Iraqi border, where a growing protest movement has lately been shut down by security forces:

Days of protests over dust storms, power failures and government mismanagement in one of Iran’s most oil-rich cities subsided on Sunday after security forces declared all demonstrations illegal.

Residents of Ahvaz, a city with a majority Arab population near the border with Iraq, had been protesting for five days in increasingly large gatherings, shown in cellphone video clips shared on social media.

The region around Ahvaz is a center of oil production in Iran, and since economic sanctions were lifted, Iran’s government has been hoping for foreign investment in the area to update refineries and power stations and fix deepening ecological problems.

The cellphone clips show protesters calling for the resignation of the local governor. And as the number of demonstrators grew, the demands started to include a call for top officials from the capital, Tehran, to come to Ahvaz to see the problems for themselves. […]

Locals said they felt ignored and had had enough. “We feel as if we live in a special zone, where the government only makes money from,” said Mobin Ataee, a local student. “It seems they would prefer people to leave so they can turn this whole area into an oil-business-only region.”

These protests may not seem like much, and it is important not to over-interpret the significance of one regional movement. As the Arab Spring most recently taught us, the Western press—not to mention the past two U.S. presidents—have long indulged in premature predictions about the transformative impact of democratic movements in the Middle East, while underestimating the ability of autocratic regimes to clamp down on dissent and cling on to their power.

Still, the Ahvaz story does offer a glimpse of the simmering regional and ethnic tensions that pose long-term problems for the elite in Tehran. The biggest trend in politics for the last 150 years has been the break-up of multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic states into smaller and more homogenous units as people demand more control over their own lives. And Iran is one of the world’s most vulnerable states to this trend, with Azeris, Kurds, Balochs, and many other minority groups under the corrupt, heavy-handed and often not-very-effective rule of the mullahs.

If it is true that the era of Sykes-Picot is coming to an end in the Middle East and that states like Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq are going to have their boundaries redrawn, it is hard to see how this process can be stopped at the Iran-Iraq border. The Iranian Kurds want independence, and many of Iran’s Arabs would gladly join with their Shi’a Arab brethren (and fellow tribesmen in many cases) across the boundary. Iran’s own meddling has played a major role in the breakdown of order across the region and the enflamed identity politics now plunging country after country into terrible wars. Can the mullahs play with fire and not be burned?
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Online MilEME09

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 32,980
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,414
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2565 on: March 13, 2017, 13:39:56 »
Irans rolls out new Karrar tank,



http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/03/12/514033/Iran-Karrrar-Dehqan

looks like a heavily upgraded T-72
"We are called a Battalion, Authorized to be company strength, parade as a platoon, Operating as a section"

Online Jed

  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • 42,840
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 980
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2566 on: March 13, 2017, 14:18:46 »
Irans rolls out new Karrar tank,



http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/03/12/514033/Iran-Karrrar-Dehqan

looks like a heavily upgraded T-72

Looks pretty effective.  I wonder if it is nuclear powered?  [:D
As the old man used to say: " I used to be a coyote, but I'm alright nooooOOOOWWW!"

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 182,455
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,201
  • Freespeecher
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2567 on: March 15, 2017, 15:36:30 »
Iran, like many other aggressive regimes, discovers that war is expensive, and maintaining their attempt to become regional hegemons could cause their economy to spiral further out of control. Low oil prices certainly won't help:

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2017/03/14/why-is-iran-wrecking-its-economy-to-fund-war-in-syria/

Quote
Why Is Iran Wrecking Its Economy to Fund War in Syria?
By David P. Goldman March 14, 2017
 
Estimates of Iran’s military expenditure in Syria vary from US$6 billion a year to US$15-US$20 billion a year. That includes US$4 billion of direct costs as well as subsidies for Hezbollah and other Iranian-controlled irregulars.

Assuming that lower estimates are closer to the truth, the cost of the Syrian war to the Tehran regime is roughly in the same range as the country’s total budget deficit, now running at a US$9.3 billion annual rate. The explanation for Tehran’s lopsided commitment to military spending, I believe, is to be found in Russian and Chinese geopolitical ambitions and fears.

The Iranian regime is ready to sacrifice the most urgent needs of its internal economy in favor of its ambitions in Syria. Iran cut development spending to just one-third of the intended level as state income lagged forecasts during the three quarters ending last December, according to the country’s central bank. Iran sold US$29 billion of crude during the period, up from $25 billion the comparable period last year. The government revenues from oil of US$11 billion (655 trillion rials) were just 70% of official forecasts, and tax revenues of US$17.2 billion came in 15% below expectations.

Chaos in Iran’s financial system prevents the Iranian government from carrying a larger budget deficit. The US$9.3 billion deficit reported by the central bank stands at just over 2% of GDP, under normal circumstances a manageable amount. But that number does not take into account the government’s massive unpaid bills. According to a February 27 report by the International Monetary Fund, the government arrears to the country’s banking system amount to 10.2% of GDP. Iran’s delegate to the IMF, Jafar Mojarrad, wrote to the IMF:

Public debt-to-GDP ratio, which increased sharply from 12% to 42% in 2015-16, mainly as a result of recognition of government arrears and their securitization, is estimated to decline to 35% in 2016-17 and to 29% next year. However, it could rise again above 40% of GDP after full recognition of remaining government arrears and their securitization and issuance of securities for bank capitalization.

Iran’s banks have so many bad loans that the government will have to issue additional bonds to recapitalize them, Mojarrad added. Iranian press accounts put toxic assets at 45% of all bank loans.

Iran’s financial system is a black hole, and the government cannot refinance its arrears, recapitalize its bankrupt banks, and finance a substantial budget deficit at the same time. Its infrastructure requirements are not only urgent, but existential. The country’s much-discussed water crisis threatens to empty whole cities and displace millions of Iranians, particularly the farmers who consume more than nine-tenths of the country's shrinking water supply. Despite what the Tehran Times called “a desperate call for action” by Iranian environmental scientists, the government slashed infrastructure spending by two-thirds during the last fiscal year.

The Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps evidently has first claim on the public purse. It is also willing to shed blood. Reported dead among Iranian-led forces in Syria include at least 473 Iranians, 583 Afghans, and 135 Pakistanis, as well as 1,268 Shi’a fighters from Iraq. In addition, perhaps 1,700 members of the Hezbollah militia have died. Other estimates are much higher. The IRGC’s foreign legions include volunteers from Afghanistan and Pakistan, where Shi’ites are an oppressed minority often subject to violent repression by the Sunni majority. IRGC-controlled forces include the Fatemiyoun Militia recruited mainly from Shi’ite Hazara refugees from Afghanistan, with reported manpower of perhaps 12,000 to 14,000 fighters, of whom 3,000 to 4,000 are now in Syria. Iranians also command the Zeinabiyoun militia composed of Pakistani Shi’ites, with perhaps 1,500 fighters in Syria.

This compares to an estimated 28 Russian casualties in Syria. Moscow has a very good bargain with Tehran. Despite the high casualty rate, the IRGC “has more volunteers for the Syrian War than it knows what to do with,” Kristin Dailey reported last year in Foreign Policy.

Why is Iran willing to shed so much blood and divert so much money away from urgent domestic needs? The fanatical character of the Iranian regime and the fragility of a society with 40% youth unemployment explain part of it. But a deeper motivation for Iran’s profligacy and militancy lies in Iran’s dependence on China and Russia.

Since 2010, China’s total oil imports have nearly doubled. It has shifted its oil purchases away from Saudi Arabia to Russia, which rose from 5% to 15% of the Chinese total, and to what might be called the Shi’ite bloc: Iran, Iraq, and Oman. Iran’s share has fallen, but the Iran-allied total has risen sharply. Iran’s oil exports to China will rise sharply as Chinese investments come online. Reuters reported earlier this year:

Chinese firms were expected to lift between 3 million to 4 million barrels more Iranian oil each quarter in 2017 than last year, four sources with knowledge of the matter estimated. That would be about 5% to 7% higher than the 620,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude the country has imported during the first 11 months of 2016, according to the customs data.

China, meanwhile, provides a quarter of Iran’s imports.

Iran stands to benefit, moreover, from its geographic position in the midpoint of China’s One Belt, One Road infrastructure drive across Central Asia. China will spend an estimated US$46 billion to create an economic corridor through Pakistan, and Iran is eager to latch on to China’s expansion.

Both Moscow and Beijing fear the rise of Sunni militancy out of the ruins of Iraq, Syria, and Libya. As Dr. Christina Lin reported in this publication as early as 2015, Russian and Chinese strategists viewed the American approach to regime change in Syria as an effort to destabilize Russia and China. Several thousand Chinese Uyghurs, an ethnically Turkish people in Western China, have joined U.S.-supported Sunni jihadists in Syria. Uyghur members of the Turkistan Islamic Party have acquired anti-tank missiles and probably shoulder-fired anti-aircraft rockets as well as drones used to record suicide attacks against the Syrian army. At the same time, Saudi-financed Islamists threaten to destabilize Southeast Asia.

In several visits to Beijing during 2014 and 2015, I spoke to senior Chinese strategists who expressed extreme concern about the dangers of returning Uyghur fighters and the spread of Islamism to China’s periphery in Southeast Asia. A Russian-Chinese axis is emerging in Asia stretching from Thailand to Turkey. As a counterweight to the Sunni jihad, Russia and China have encouraged the militarization of the Shi’ite belt that stretches from Lebanon through Syria and Iran to Afghanistan. Virtually all of China’s Muslims and 90% of Russia’s Muslims are Sunnis. Iran well may be the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, as both the Obama administration and the Trump administration claim, but it is not a sponsor of the specific sort of terrorism that Russia and China fear.

That helps explain Iran’s seemingly irrational decision to divert desperately needed resources to the Revolutionary Guards. The IRGC is not merely the dominant political and economic force in Iran. It is Iran’s main bargaining chip with its arms suppliers and oil buyers in Moscow and Beijing. China’s economic influence in Asia is a geopolitical Death Star, a magnet for political influence unlike anything we have seen since America’s economic dominance in Europe during the 1950s. Iran and its Shi’ite surrogates in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan. and Pakistan have a nearly inexhaustible supply of cannon fodder to advance Russian and Chinese interests on the ground in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere. With Chinese economic support, Iran can sustain its military campaigns far longer than its neglected, bankrupt and dehydrated internal economy might suggest.

This leaves American policy in a quandary. The Obama administration --  as Lieutenant General Michael Flynn warned in this and numerous other statements -- inadvertently stood godfather to the birth of ISIS by blundering into the milieu of Syrian Sunni rebels. It is discouraging that the Trump administration lost the services of Gen. Flynn less than a month into his tenure at National Security Council.

More broadly, Sunni radicalism in the region is the result of the George W. Bush administration’s insistence on majority (that is, Shi’ite) rule in Iraq. As Lieutenant General Daniel P. Bolger observed in his superb 2014 book Why We Lost:

The stark facts on the ground still sat there, oozing pus and bile. With Saddam gone, any voting would install a Shi’ite majority. The Sunni wouldn’t run Iraq again. That, at the bottom, caused the insurgency. Absent the genocide of Sunni Arabs, it would keep it going.

Ten years ago, America might have persuaded Moscow to throw Iran under the bus in return for some kind of settlement in Ukraine. That train left the station some time ago. At low cost in the form of air support in Syria, and at a profit in the case of the sale of the Russian S-300 air defense system, Russia has a partner in Iran willing to shed large amounts of blood (especially if it is Iraqi, Afghan, or Pakistani) in the service of its interests in Syria. China has an oil-rich neighbor engaged in a war of attrition against Sunni Muslims, and a captive market for its industrial exports. China and Russia have little to fear from an unleashed Iran. In 30 years the rootless, childless generation that now provides unlimited cannon fodder will turn grey, and Iran will have an elderly dependent ratio like Western Europe’s, but with a tenth of the per capita income. Iran faces a democratic implosion like no other in history.

There has been a good deal of talk in Washington about fostering a bloc of Sunni states to oppose Iranian influence. The trouble is that the only two Sunni states with real armies, Egypt and Turkey, have indicated that they prefer the Assad regime to a Sunni alternative. Turkey shifted towards Russia after the July 2016 coup attempt, which Ankara believes enjoyed American sympathy if not outright support. Egypt is more worried about Sunni jihadists than it is about Iran, and has moved closer to Russia in arms procurement and other areas. America is left with Jordan and the Gulf states, whose military capability is doubtful.

We are confronted with a war that feeds on itself. The destruction of civil society by war leaves young men with little to do but go to war, until war exhausts the manpower pool. That typically occurs after 30% of the military-age men are dead. I warned in 2010 that the Petraeus surge would culminate in a new Thirty Years' War. Syria’s half-million dead are just a down payment. Four years ago I raised the prospect of a Pax Sinica in the Middle East. Today that seems whimsical. The emergence of ISIS and other Sunni jihad movements in the intervening years has persuaded Beijing to fight Sunni fire with Shi’ite fire.

The facts on the ground have shifted in favor of China and Russia, and diplomacy ultimately will reflect this shift. The best that can come out of this ugly situation is something like Sykes-Picot restored: a patchwork partition of the Levant and Mesopotamia with the creation of a Sunni state to oppose the non-state actors, kept in uneasy peace with Shi’ite satrapies of Iran by the agreement of Washington, China, and Moscow. That is not a good solution, and certainly not a palatable solution from an American point of view, but it is the resolution suggested by the current state of the chessboard.

A new Thirty Years’ War will end sooner or later in a new Peace of Westphalia, the 1648 treaty that left Catholics and Protestants in more or less the positions they had occupied before the war began in 1618, minus roughly two-fifths of their respective populations. That the war would lead to stalemate was obvious by its midpoint in 1634, but France and Spain chose to fight on for another 15 devastating years. When peace came it pleased no one. That is the sort of peace we will have one way or another, and we might as well have it sooner rather than later.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Rifleman62

    Retired.

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 71,055
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,406
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2568 on: April 27, 2017, 16:12:05 »
This happen again two days ago, and has happened with some regularity.

 http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/25/navy-destroyer-has-close-encounter-with-iran-vessel-in-persian-gulf.html

Navy destroyer has close encounter with Iran vessel in Persian Gulf - 25 Apr 17

How do the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea 1972 (Colregs) or whatever laws/rules are utilized, function WRT two different countries warships in International waters? Is the USN obligated by law to give way, change course when, in this case, a Iranian Revolutionary Guard "fast attack craft" deliberately comes too close? In law, what is the separation required? Does it matter if approaching from the stern, head on, port or starboard?

With the Trump Administration, sooner or later, probably sooner, the USN will be given new ROE's for these encounters and it would be helpful to have a understanding what the USN could do. i.e repeatedly warn, not change course and hit the smaller vessel. Or is there a law saying the larger vessel (less maneuverable) must change course?

Remember this humorous video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brNX4xqlXJE
« Last Edit: April 27, 2017, 18:11:23 by Rifleman62 »
Never Congratulate Yourself In Victory, Nor Blame Your Horses In Defeat - Old Cossack Expression

Offline Rifleman62

    Retired.

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 71,055
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,406
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2569 on: April 28, 2017, 10:44:51 »
Any of you Navy pers got answers?
Never Congratulate Yourself In Victory, Nor Blame Your Horses In Defeat - Old Cossack Expression

Offline Lumber

  • Donor
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 41,314
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,616
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2570 on: April 28, 2017, 11:17:04 »
Any of you Navy pers got answers?

Warships are actually exempt form the COLREGS (International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea). I know that sounds shocking, because Jr. MARS Officers spend literally 3 years studying, practicing and employing COLREGS. From a practical standpoint, we follow the regulations to a T, and we literally have half of them memorized verbatim. However, form a legal standpoint, we are under no obligation to follow them, but gone would be the command of a CO who blatantly ignored them.

So, in this case, who had the "right of way"? Legally speaking: no one.
"Aboard his ship, there is nothing outside a captain's control." - Captain Sir Edward Pellew

“Extremes to the right and to the left of any political dispute are always wrong.”
― Dwight D. Eisenhower

Death before dishonour! Nothing before coffee!

Online Colin P

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 100,970
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 7,808
  • Civilian
    • http://www.pacific.ccg-gcc.gc.ca
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2571 on: May 18, 2017, 15:13:40 »
The term "right of way" no longer exists, it's the stand on vessel and give way vessel. To many accidents due to people thinking "right of way" was a power from the gods.

Offline Rifleman62

    Retired.

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 71,055
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,406
Re: The Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2572 on: July 25, 2017, 10:45:07 »
This happen again two days ago, and has happened with some regularity.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/25/navy-destroyer-has-close-encounter-with-iran-vessel-in-persian-gulf.html

Navy destroyer has close encounter with Iran vessel in Persian Gulf - 25 Apr 17

With the Trump Administration, sooner or later, probably sooner, the USN will be given new ROE's for these encounters .....


http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/07/25/us-navy-ship-fires-warning-shots-at-iranian-ship-in-persian-gulf.html

US Navy ship fires warning shots at Iranian ship in Persian Gulf -  Lucas Tomlinson - July 25, 2017 - Fox News


A U.S. Navy ship fired warning shots at an Iranian ship in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, U.S. defense officials confirmed to Fox News.

The U.S. Navy coastal patrol ship fired warning shots from its .50-caliber machine gun at an Iranian patrol boat when it came within 150 yards of the ship in the Persian Gulf, according to two U.S. defense officials.

The Iranian ship ignored repeated radio calls from the USS Thunderbolt, which also launched flares to warn the fast approaching Iranian ship, officials said.

The incident happened Tuesday as a formation of U.S. Navy warships was doing an exercise in the Northern Persian Gulf.

It’s the first time since January a U.S. Navy warship has fired warning shots at an Iranian vessel which approached too close.
Never Congratulate Yourself In Victory, Nor Blame Your Horses In Defeat - Old Cossack Expression

Offline milnews.ca

  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Relic
  • *
  • 404,375
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 21,350
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2573 on: July 25, 2017, 16:00:24 »
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/07/25/us-navy-ship-fires-warning-shots-at-iranian-ship-in-persian-gulf.html

US Navy ship fires warning shots at Iranian ship in Persian Gulf ...
CENTCOM's take ...
Quote
Centcom: U.S. Ship Fires Warning Shots as Iranian Vessel Makes 'Unsafe' Approach
From a U.S. Central Command News Release

WASHINGTON, July 25, 2017 — A U.S. coastal patrol ship participating in a coalition exercise in the Persian Gulf fired warning shots today after warning an Iranian naval vessel that was conducting what U.S. Central Command officials called "an unsafe and unprofessional interaction" in international waters.

An Iranian naval vessel makes a close approach to the coastal patrol ship USS Thunderbolt, right,
in international waters in the Persian Gulf, July 25, 2017. The Thunderbolt crew sounded warnings before firing warning shots. Navy photo

The Iranian vessel approached within 150 yards of the coastal patrol ship USS Thunderbolt and did not respond to repeated attempts to establish radio communications as it approached, Centcom officials said.

Warning Flares, Danger Signal

The Thunderbolt crew then fired warning flares and sounded the internationally recognized danger signal of five short blasts on the ship's whistle, but the Iranian vessel continued inbound, officials said. As the Iranian vessel proceeded toward the U.S. ship, the crew again sounded five short blasts before firing warning shots in front of the Iranian vessel, they added.

The Iranian vessel halted its approach after the warning shots were fired, officials said, noting that the Iranian vessel's actions were not in accordance with internationally recognized "rules of the road," nor with internationally recognized maritime customs, thus creating a risk for collision.
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter