Author Topic: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran  (Read 14551 times)

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Offline gryphonv

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8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« on: January 07, 2020, 23:10:58 »
Ukraine International Flight 752, a Boeing 737, crashed outside Tehran.

Still seems like there is more happening.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/plane-...hran-1.5418562

Also:

 USGS has confirmed a quake southwest of Shiraz.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 05:21:46 by milnews.ca »

Offline Brihard

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2020, 05:15:41 »
Ukraine International Flight 752, a Boeing 737, crashed outside Tehran.

Still seems like there is more happening.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/plane-...hran-1.5418562

Also:

 USGS has confirmed a quake southwest of Shiraz.

63 Canadians dead in the crash per Ukraine. Iran and Ukraine both suspect mechanical. Note that this is NOT the new version of 737 (MAX) that went down twice in the past couple years; this was a 737-800 Next Gen.

May I recommend a thread split for the plane crash?
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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2020, 05:20:05 »
May I recommend a thread split for the plane crash?
Good call - done.

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2020, 05:28:58 »
This just out from UKR - highlights mine ...
Quote
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy commissioned to initiate criminal proceedings as regards the crash of a passenger plane of Ukraine International Airlines near Tehran International Airport (Iran). The Head of State also stressed the need to conduct an airworthiness test of the entire civilian fleet.

"Dreadful news from the Middle East. This morning, after taking off from Imam Khomeini International Airport (Tehran), the passenger aircraft of Ukraine International Airlines crashed near the airport. According to preliminary reports, all passengers and crew are dead. My sincere condolences to the families and friends of all passengers and crew members,” the President of Ukraine said.

According to him, the ambassador and consul of Ukraine in Iran are at the scene of the disaster.

“Pursuant to my instruction, the NSDC apparatus has established an operational headquarters. Special aircrafts for conveyance of the bodies have been prepared to depart to Tehran via the line of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense. We are waiting for the agreement of the Iranian side for departure,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The President also tasked the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to initiate criminal proceedings regarding the UIA plane crash in Tehran.

“An investigation commission should be set up of representatives of the security agencies and agencies responsible for civil aviation. We have to check all the possible versions. Regardless of the conclusions on the causes of the Iranian catastrophe, the airworthiness of the entire civilian fleet will be tested,” the Head of State said.

“I keep all measures under personal control. I urge everyone to refrain from speculation and putting forward unverified versions of the disaster before the official announcements,” he added.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 11 Ukrainian (2 passengers and 9 crew members), 63 Canadian, 82 Iranian, 3 German, 10 Swedish, 4 Afghan and 3 British citizens were on board. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is currently updating the information on passengers ...
Also, a reminder attached about breaking news as ther story unfolds.
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Offline Brihard

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2020, 05:38:21 »
There’s video out now purporting to be a cell phone video (from a distance, at night) of the plane on fire before it hits the ground. Looks like it caught fire just after takeoff. The video continues right through to impact- big fireball.

The crash was about 8 hours ago, and took place around 3-4 hours after the missiles were fired. Nothing credible to suggest a link with military/deliberate action at this time.

However this happened it’s goddamned awful and my heart goes out to those affected. Dozens of Canadian families will be waking up in the next few hours to hear of this and fear the worst for their loved ones.

Hopefully, in the larger context of events in the region, this is ‘just’ a civil aviation disaster.
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Offline Dolphin_Hunter

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2020, 06:40:08 »
Nothing credible to suggest a link with military/deliberate action at this time.

No, there isn’t anything credible.  However, it is most likely this aircraft suffered a sudden event which precluded the flight deck from communicating with the ground.

If it was mechanical and it did indeed go down in a ball of flames then there are some issues that need to be addressed ASAP.  Aircraft rarely fall out of the sky in a fireball.

Terrible tragedy.  RIP

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2020, 08:25:52 »
UKR's Ministry of Infrastructure has published a list on its Facebook page of the names of the dead w/years of birth included - here's hoping all the NOK have been notified.

Meanwhile, this also from the Ministry (Google Translate - original in Ukrainian):
Quote
... According to the decision of the State Aviation Service, flights in the airspace of Iran are forbidden to Ukrainian airlines from 00.00 9.01.2020 - until the causes of the catastrophe are clarified. The State Aviation Service will conduct an unscheduled inspection of the safety of UIA flights. Additional checks on the safety of flights of other airlines will also be carried out, ”said Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Vladislav Krykliy.

(...)

The Iranian National Commission for Disaster Investigation has begun its work. The Ukrainian ambassador and the consul are working closely with the Iranian aviation authorities to promptly identify the causes of the crash and the repatriation of the bodies of the dead Ukrainians. A search assistance team and experts will be sent to Iran to investigate the cause of the five-person crash of the National Bureau of Investigation into Civil Aviation and Incidents, two State Aviation Specialists and three UIA officials. The causes of the tragedy will be named only after an official investigation has been carried out, ”the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine emphasized.

UIA reports that the Boeing 737-800 NG was new, production 2016 and underwent the last scheduled maintenance on January 6 ...
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Offline Spencer100

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2020, 08:47:25 »
Iran will not turn over the "black" boxes

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2020, 09:17:12 »
Iran will not turn over the "black" boxes

Source?

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Offline dapaterson

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2020, 09:33:42 »
Source?

It's being reported by the Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494

Iran's civil aviation organization has said that it will not hand over to Boeing the black box of the Ukrainian airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeni airport on Wednesday morning.
Both black boxes were found Wednesday, Iranian state television has reported. An Iranian official was quoted as saying both boxes were damaged but that it was believed their data could still be retrieved.
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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2020, 10:01:59 »
https://www.jpost.com//Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494

Thanks!

I do not know what caused this aircraft to crash, but I will note that it is extremely rare for modern commercial airliners to just catch fire and crash all by themselves, giving the crew no time to react or talk to ATC about the problem.

Just sayin...

- slight mod edit to fix quote formatting -
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 13:13:08 by milnews.ca »

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2020, 13:00:11 »
>Aircraft rarely fall out of the sky in a fireball.

The timing is great, isn't it?
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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2020, 13:41:09 »
It's being reported by the Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494

Iran's civil aviation organization has said that it will not hand over to Boeing the black box of the Ukrainian airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeni airport on Wednesday morning.
Both black boxes were found Wednesday, Iranian state television has reported. An Iranian official was quoted as saying both boxes were damaged but that it was believed their data could still be retrieved.
A bit more from The Guardian ...
Quote
... Commenting after the discovery of the black box flight recorders at the crash site, (Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation head, Ali) Abedzadeh said: “We will not give the black boxes to the manufacturer (Boeing) and the Americans. It’s not yet clear which country the black box will go to for the investigation,” he added.

“This accident will be investigated by Iran’s aviation organisation but the Ukrainians can also be present during the incident’s investigation,” he added ...
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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2020, 13:57:04 »
Interesting bit on stats:  UKR's President says this ...
Quote
... According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 11 Ukrainian (2 passengers and 9 crew members), 63 Canadian, 82 Iranian, 3 German, 10 Swedish, 4 Afghan and 3 British citizens were on board ...
... while IRN's info-machine (see attached) says this:
Quote
... Iranian emergency service officials said the passengers of the doomed plane included 147 Iranians and 32 foreign nationals.
#EarlyReportCaveats
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2020, 13:57:23 »
Aviation experts on Fox today said that the pilots may have been incapacitated or the plane had suffered electrical failure. Terrorism cannot be discounted maybe that's why the black boxes wont be released. There was speculation that either the NTSB or Canada's version might yet get the black boxes. Condolences to the families of those killed in this crash.

Since the CF personnel in Iraq were moved to Kuwait does their hazardous duty pay stop ?

Offline gryphonv

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2020, 13:59:27 »
Interesting bit on stats:  UKR's President says this ...... while IRN's info-machine (see attached) says this:#EarlyReportCaveats

Maybe both are right, on the Iranian side dual citizens are only Iranian. I imagine a lot of the Canadians who sadly lost their lives were dual citizens.

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2020, 14:41:01 »
I know we do like to focus on the tactical, strategic and political aspects here, but the CBC has already produced an article detailing the very real human tragedy of this. With a reminder that the victims could have been any of our neighbours, co-workers, peers, even your bank teller, teacher of your children, or local business owner who you have traded a few laughs with.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ukrainian-plane-crash-iran-winnipeggers-1.5418879
... Move!! ...

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2020, 16:26:30 »
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand let the seeds of conspiracy theories start to be sown (sources:  here & here) ....
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 16:47:49 by milnews.ca »
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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2020, 16:49:01 »
For the record, CAN PM's statement ...
Quote
“This morning, I join Canadians across the country who are shocked and saddened to see reports that a plane crash outside of Tehran, Iran, has claimed the lives of 176 people, including 63 Canadians.

“On behalf of the Government of Canada, Sophie and I offer our deepest condolences to those who have lost family, friends, and loved ones in this tragedy. Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that this crash is thoroughly investigated, and that Canadians’ questions are answered. Today, I assure all Canadians that their safety and security is our top priority. We also join with the other countries who are mourning the loss of citizens.

“Minister Champagne has been in touch with the government of Ukraine, and is speaking to relevant authorities and to international partners. Minister Garneau is also working with officials from Transport Canada, and is reaching out to his international counterparts ...
... and CAN foreign affairs minister's statement:
Quote
“I was deeply shocked and saddened to learn that, according to preliminary reports, at least 63 Canadians were among the 176 people who were killed when Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 crashed after takeoff yesterday near Tehran, Iran. As more information becomes available, including regarding dual citizens, this number could change. I would like to extend my deepest condolences to those who lost loved ones in this tragic event, including citizens of a number of other countries.

“The situation remains extremely fluid. I have been in touch with my Ukrainian counterpart, and will continue to speak to all relevant authorities. The Government of Canada is committed to working closely with international partners regarding any possible investigation.

“We will continue to keep Canadians informed as the situation evolves ...
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Offline milnews.ca

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2020, 20:24:01 »
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand let the seeds of conspiracy theories start to be sown (sources:  here & here) ....
MOAR conspiracy fuel ...
Quote
#BREAKING: This image which is now being circulated in #Iranian social media is claimed to be showing seeker of a 9M331 missiles launched by an #IRGC|ASF’s To-M1 SAM system at Flight #PS752 of #Ukraine Intl Airlines resulting explosion of Boeing 737-8KV (UR-PSR) today in #Iran ...
Photo's makin' the rounds of Twitter like crazy ...

Meanwhile, a quick two-liner from the Canadian correspondent for an int'l  wire service ...
Quote
The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.  The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)
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Offline PPCLI Guy

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2020, 20:41:26 »
Quote
Meanwhile, a quick two-liner from the Canadian correspondent for an int'l  wire service ...
Quote
The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.  The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)

Sounds about right
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Offline milnews.ca

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #23 on: January 08, 2020, 20:42:51 »
Any folks in the aviation field know who this group is?  They seem to publish articles/blog posts & share information about aviation, airports, ATC and other related issues among a membership alleging to be ~5K.  The URL is registered via GoDaddy to a "Flight Service Bureau" with zero contact detailsThe FB page says they're "a group of 5000 pilots, dispatchers, controllers, and ops people working together to share information."  The only "team member" listed on the FB profile is a guy who appears to be a musician in the UK who's posted ZERO posts or pix related to aviation???

They're posting this:
Quote
The cause of the crash of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) AUI/PS752 on departure from Tehran is not yet determined, and given political circumstances, may not be clarified beyond reasonable doubt anytime soon.

Purely from the perspective of making a risk assessment for operations to Tehran, and Iran in general, however, we would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary.

Images seen by OPSGROUP, shown below, show obvious projectile holes in the fuselage and a wing section. Whether that projectile was an engine part, or a missile fragment is still conjecture, but in making a decision as to whether to operate to Iran, erring on the side of caution would dictate that you do not, until there is clear information as to the cause.

Obviously, there is also the wider regional risk as indicated through the US FAA Notams issued late Tuesday night. US operators are covered by these clear and specific Notams – do not operate to Iran, or Iraq, or operate in the Persian/Oman Gulf area.

Other operators are free to make their own judgement, but should note that a majority of non-US international carriers have elected to avoid both countries for the time being.
Here's a link to the archived version of this piece in case it disappears.

I'm not certified in the physics of explosions, but I'm going to guess that a plane blowing up just after takeoff full of fuel will be quite likely to generate all kinds of flying metal that'll fly into other bigger pieces of metal before all the big & small pieces settle to the ground.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 20:53:54 by milnews.ca »
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Offline Hamish Seggie

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Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2020, 20:45:40 »
I can hardly wait for the tin foil hat crowd to weigh in.  :facepalm:
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