Author Topic: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019  (Read 1232 times)

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Offline Humphrey Bogart

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Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« on: October 23, 2019, 15:09:54 »
Alright folks, the election is over and I've started this thread as hopefully a way of generating discussion on where we think the National Defence file is headed with the election of a Liberal Minority Government.

I personally think that for now, it will remain status quo but there are a few big tickets items this election could impact:

1.  Future Fighter Procurement
2.  NSS
3.  RPA Procurement

I see Future Fighter Procurement getting pushed further right, the RCAF Brass will play it cool to the public (With the Trudeau Government pointing to pictures of Mark Norman with a bullseye on his head pour encourager les généraux!) but all will not be well behind the scenes.
Likewise, those Armed RPAs the CAF wants?  Yah those are definitely getting punted very far to the right.  Shipbuilding will continue to be supported because UNION JOBS JOBS JOBS! Thoughts?

Offline ModlrMike

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2019, 15:12:56 »
The NDP will expect their pound of flesh. I wager it will come from the CF's hide.
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Offline dapaterson

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2019, 15:20:43 »
I am cautiously optimistic.  While I don't expect 2% of GDP tomorrow, there is a commitment to growing commitments, including NATO by name.


From the party platform: https://2019.liberal.ca/our-platform/a-responsible-approach-to-security/

We will continue to support our Canadian Armed Forces members and defend Canada’s interests with stronger oversight and responsible investments.

Canada’s Armed Forces help keep Canada – and the world – safe and secure.

To build on the important contributions our Armed Forces members have made to critical missions around the world, we will move forward with expanding Canada’s role in multilateral organizations – like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United Nations – and will make sure that our Armed Forces have everything they need to continue to do their job well.

In Canada’s north, we will continue to move forward toward a future where northern and Arctic people are thriving, strong, and safe. We will work closely with our partners through the Arctic and Northern Policy Framework to make this a reality, and to protect Canada’s rights and sovereignty in the Arctic, and to strengthen continental defence, we will move forward with better-developed surveillance and rapid-response capabilities. We will also provide international leadership on the rules governing the use and navigation of Arctic waters.

Canada’s security also rests on the good use of defence intelligence – the information that informs and supports military operations.

To ensure that this information is handled responsibly, we will move forward with a new framework governing how Canada gathers, manages, and uses defence intelligence, as recommended by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.

And to ensure that Canada’s biggest and most complex defence procurement projects are delivered on time and with greater transparency to Parliament, we will move forward with the creation of Defence Procurement Canada.
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Offline Retired AF Guy

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2019, 19:07:53 »
The NDP will expect their pound of flesh. I wager it will come from the CF's hide.

Well the President of the US may have something to say about that. Donald Trump has been pushing NATO countries to increase their defence budgets and Canada cutting back on our defence budget might not go over well.
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Offline dapaterson

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2019, 19:26:58 »
Keep in mind that Canada also needs to change how we report on defence expenditures; there are elements such as VAC and others that are captured in the "NATO 2%" that are not part of DND's budget.
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Offline PPCLI Guy

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2019, 06:26:17 »
The NDP is actually best positioned to get us to defence sending levels at 2% of GDP.  If we let them govern, then it won't take long for 24B per year to be 2% of GDP. 

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Offline Baz

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2019, 08:01:55 »
The NDP is actually best positioned to get us to defence sending levels at 2% of GDP.  If we let them govern, then it won't take long for 24B per year to be 2% of GDP. 

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Offline Colin P

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2019, 10:25:59 »
Fighter replacement is dead in the water for now, NSS will continue as many of the jobs are union and the NDP has to support that. CCG may benefit from all this. Any other semi-large defence procurement will also be shelved. No oversea sales of defense items, particularly LAV's. I suspect NDHQ is build bunkers in some of the cubicles and hunkering down for a bit. 

Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2019, 10:31:15 »
Fighter replacement is dead in the water for now, NSS will continue as many of the jobs are union and the NDP has to support that. CCG may benefit from all this. Any other semi-large defence procurement will also be shelved. No oversea sales of defense items, particularly LAV's. I suspect NDHQ is build bunkers in some of the cubicles and hunkering down for a bit.

Actually, I disagree with you on the fighter file. Are the Conservatives going to oppose a buy of new fighters?

270/338 votes, right there between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Easy win for both parties.

A bigger problem wil be if a resession hits and the money runs out....

Offline Good2Golf

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2019, 11:39:49 »
Actually, I disagree with you on the fighter file. Are the Conservatives going to oppose a buy of new fighters?

270/338 votes, right there between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Easy win for both parties.

A bigger problem wil be if a resession hits and the money runs out....

The money was already programmed into the accrual space of the fiscal framework.

We’ll probably have two or three more recessions after the Great Recession of 20/21 during the life of the cash flow of the program...

Offline Hamish Seggie

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2019, 11:51:30 »
The NDP is actually best positioned to get us to defence sending levels at 2% of GDP.  If we let them govern, then it won't take long for 24B per year to be 2% of GDP. 

#shrinkthedenominatornotthenumeratorforthewin

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Offline Colin P

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2019, 16:56:40 »
Actually, I disagree with you on the fighter file. Are the Conservatives going to oppose a buy of new fighters?

270/338 votes, right there between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Easy win for both parties.

A bigger problem wil be if a resession hits and the money runs out....

I certainly hope I am wrong, but I foresee Bloc and NDP nixing the deal to the best of their ability. If the deal appears to go to a non-F35 aircraft, the CPC might not support it either.

Online CBH99

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Re: Impact to CAF: General Election 2019
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2019, 18:12:57 »
I hope your wrong too.

I can't see any of them opposing the fighter file altogether, although I'm sure each will nag about local industry, jobs, etc etc - which ARE very important given the current state of the economy.


However, everybody knows the Hornet file is slowly turning into the Sea King file, and no party is going to want to be the ones responsible for Sea King 2.0.  With Turkey out of the game and a fighter purchase for Canada coming up, we might actually be in a good place to do some chatting behind the scenes & make something win-win happen.    :dunno:
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