Author Topic: Canada-US Trade Relations  (Read 92669 times)

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Offline Fishbone Jones

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #450 on: October 02, 2018, 14:22:21 »
I didn't study international trade in school. So, how much credibility can I give a blogger named "sundance"?


I didn't read the blog. The Article is there in black and white and pretty well says it all. No course on International Trade required nor insight into 'sundance's' brain housing group.
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #451 on: October 02, 2018, 14:23:38 »
This from MacLean's touches on the same issue amongst others. 

Thank-you.

By David Moscrop,

"David Moscrop is a political scientist and a writer. He’s currently working on a book about why we make bad political decisions and how we can make better ones. He’s at @david_moscrop on Twitter. He lives in Vancouver."

Nice to know who the author is.  :)

No offence to "sundance".
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Offline garb811

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #452 on: October 02, 2018, 14:25:37 »
This is getting a lock while the DS sort a few things out.

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #453 on: October 02, 2018, 16:25:14 »
Ladies and gentlemen,

Things started to get out of hand enough that we had to hand out a few strikes. This is your not so subtle reminder to debate the issues, and not target the poster. Talking about "apologists", "petulant childs", and "marxist unicorns" are unacceptable in civil discourse and on this forum. If people cannot stay in line with the forum and specifically the political thread guidelines, those individuals will lose the privilege of posting in these types of threads. This is not a partisan issue so do not assume this warning does not apply to one side or the other.

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Offline Fishbone Jones

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #454 on: October 03, 2018, 15:51:12 »
https://www.spencerfernando.com/2018/10/01/usmca-dont-fall-for-justin-trudeaus-deceptive-nafta-spin/

USMCA: Don’t Fall For Justin Trudeau’s Deceptive NAFTA Spin

"Avoiding total disaster is not the same as succeeding.

As predicted, the Trudeau government is claiming that the new NAFTA deal – now called the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA) – is a ‘win’ for Canada.

They have to say this, and would have said exactly the same thing no matter what the agreement was.

Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s true, and we need to make sure we don’t fall for Justin Trudeau’s deceptive spin.

Consider what was said by Daniel Dale – who nobody could ever call a Trump apologist:

    “I’m hearing a bunch of this from Trump critics, but it’s not correct. There are numerous changes in the new agreement. Incremental changes but real changes, several of which are Canadian and Mexican concessions to Trump.”


More at Link
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Offline Remius

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #455 on: October 03, 2018, 17:16:48 »
Spencer Fernando has the cap on auto exports wrong.  The cap is an exemption should the US ever put tariffs on autos.  Essentially a level of security for Canada should that threat ever materialise.  Very much a plus for Canada. 

Aluminum and steel are still an issue.  But not NAFTA related. 

Rona Ambrose, James Moore, Brian Mulroney, Kim Campbell, Jason Kenney are only some of the conservatives applauding this deal.

Maybe conservatives like Andrew Scheer should highlight the conservative contribution to this deal instead of trying to make it sound like a disaster that isn’t really one.  I understand he owes the dairy industry but I don’t think that will translate to significant votes come election time.
Optio

Offline Remius

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #456 on: October 03, 2018, 17:24:14 »
The Washington Post on the winners and losers. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/01/winners-losers-usmca-trade-deal/?utm_term=.1dda2f5d2ccb

A good overview.  Trump wins, Trudeau wins.  Mexico and China seem to be the bigger losers in this deal.
Optio

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #457 on: October 03, 2018, 17:27:42 »
The Washington Post on the winners and losers. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/01/winners-losers-usmca-trade-deal/?utm_term=.1dda2f5d2ccb

A good overview.  Trump wins, Trudeau wins.  Mexico and China seem to be the bigger losers in this deal.

Sadly it's behind a pay wall.

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #458 on: October 03, 2018, 19:29:48 »
Here it is:

USMCA: Who are the winners and losers of the ‘new NAFTA’?
Trump and Trudeau can tout this as a major victory ahead of key elections in their countries. It’s a lot less clear whether ‘NAFTA 2.0’ is good for Mexico and U.S. automakers.

The United States, Canada and Mexico finalized a sweeping new trade deal late Sunday, just hours before their Oct. 1 deadline. President Trump was up early Monday tweeting that the agreement is “a great deal for all three countries,” and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Sunday night that it was a “good day for Canada.”

The deal is expected to take effect around Jan. 1, 2020. Congress has to approve it, a process that will take months, but confirmation looks likely, given that Republicans are pleased Canada got on board and some Democrats are pleased with the stronger labor provisions.

Here’s a look at who’s smiling — and who’s not — as the world sees this news. (For a rundown of what’s in the deal, click here).

Winners:
President Trump. He got a major trade deal done and will be able to say it’s another “promise kept” to his voters right before the midterm elections. And he won the messaging game — he persuaded Canada and Mexico to ditch the name “NAFTA,” for North American Free Trade Agreement, which he hated, and to instead call the new agreement “USMCA,” for United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. It’s not a total trade revolution, as Trump promised, but USMCA does make substantial changes to modernize trade rules in effect from 1994 to 2020, and it give some wins to U.S. farmers and blue-collar workers in the auto sector. Trump beat his doubters, and his team can now turn to the No. 1 trade target: China.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. There might not be a lot of love lost between Trump and Trudeau, but in the end, Trudeau didn’t cave much on his key issues: dairy and Chapter 19, the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism. Trudeau held out and got what he wanted: Canada’s dairy supply management system stays mostly intact, and Chapter 19 remains in place, a win for the Canadian lumber sector. On dairy, Canada is mainly giving U.S. farmers more ability to sell milk protein concentrate, skim milk powder and infant formula. On top of the substantive issues, Trump went out of his way to criticize the Canadian negotiating team in the final days of deliberations, which Trudeau can play up as a sign of just how hard his staff fought on this deal.

Labor unions. This agreement stipulates that at least 30 percent of cars (rising to 40 percent by 2023) must be made by workers earning $16 an hour, about three times the typical manufacturing wage in Mexico now. USMCA also stipulates that Mexico must make it easier for workers to form unions. The AFL-CIO is cautiously optimistic that this truly is a better deal for U.S. and Canadian workers in terms of keeping jobs from going to lower-paying Mexico or to Asia, although labor is looking carefully at how the new rules will be enforced. It’s possible this could accelerate automation, but that would take time.

U.S. dairy farmers. They regain some access to the Canadian market, especially for what is known as “Class 7” milk products such as milk powder and milk proteins. The United States used to sell a lot of Class 7 products to Canada, but that changed in recent years when Canada started heavily regulating this new class. USMCA also imposes some restrictions on how much dairy Canada can export, a potential win for U.S. dairy farmers if they are able to capitalize on foreign markets.

Stock market investors. A major worry is over, and the U.S. stock market rallied Monday with the Dow gaining nearly 200 points.

Robert E. Lighthizer. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin couldn’t get major trade deals done for the president, but U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer did. He led negotiations with South Korea on the revamped U.S.-South Korea trade deal (KORUS) that the president just signed, as well as on the “new NAFTA.” Lighthizer is proving to be the trade expert closest to Trump’s ear.

Losers:

China. Trump is emboldened on trade. A senior administration official said Sunday that the U.S.-Canada-Mexico deal “has become a playbook for future trade deals.” The president believes his strategy is working, and he’s now likely to go harder after China because his attention won’t be diverted elsewhere (at least on trade matters).

U.S. car buyers. Economists and auto experts think USMCA is going to cause car prices in the United States to rise and the selection to go down, especially on small cars that used to be produced in Mexico but may not be able to be brought across the border duty-free anymore. It’s unclear how much prices could rise (estimates vary), but automakers can’t rely as heavily on cheap Mexican labor now and there will probably be higher compliance costs.

Canadian steel. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum remain in place for now, something Trudeau has called “insulting” since the two countries are longtime allies with similar labor standards.

Unclear:
Mexico. America’s southern neighbor kept a trade deal in place, but it had to make a lot of concessions to Trump. It’s possible this could stall some of Mexico’s manufacturing growth, and it’s unclear whether wages really will rise in Mexico because of this agreement. Big energy companies can also still challenge Mexico via Chapter 11, something that could constrain Mexico’s new government as it aims to reform energy policies.

Ford, GM, Chrysler and other big auto companies. There’s relief among auto industry executives that the deal is done, but costs will be high for big car companies: The steel tariffs are still in place on Canada; more car parts have to come from North America (not cheaper Asia); and more car components have to be made at wages of $16 an hour. It remains to be seen how car companies are able to adjust and whether this has long-term ramifications for their bottom lines.

Big business. Many business groups are relieved that Trump got a trilateral deal and didn’t end up tearing up NAFTA entirely, as he had threatened to do. And they like a lot of the trademark and patent provisions. But the details of USMCA include some losses for big business. Some regulatory compliance costs will probably rise, especially for automakers, and big business lost Chapter 11, the investor dispute settlement mechanism that companies have used to sue Canadian and Mexican governments (the one exception is that energy and telecommunications firms still get a modified Chapter 11 with Mexico).


NOTE:  I was able to access the article without hitting a paywall.  Accordingly, I am leaving this post as is in accordance with the fair dealing provisions of the Copyright Act. -Milnet.ca Staff


 
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 20:26:10 by garb811 »
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #459 on: October 04, 2018, 04:40:24 »
From the Washington Post article:

Quote
USMCA also imposes some restrictions on how much dairy Canada can export, a potential win for U.S. dairy farmers if they are able to capitalize on foreign markets.

This is the first time I've seen this mentioned. Does anybody have any details?
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #460 on: October 04, 2018, 22:20:33 »
From the Washington Post article:

This is the first time I've seen this mentioned. Does anybody have any details?

The provision is found in Annex 3-B "Agricultural Trade Between the United States and Canada" in Part C "Dairy Pricing and Exports" on page 3-C-8 starting at para 7 which reads:

Quote
7. Canada shall monitor its global exports of milk protein concentrates, skim milk powder, and
infant formula and provide information regarding those exports to the United States as specified in
paragraph 12.
8.
(a) In a given dairy year, if the total global exports of milk protein concentrates and
skim milk powder from Canada exceed the following thresholds:
Year MPC plus SMP Thresholds
1 55,000 MT
2 35,000 MT
then, Canada shall apply an export charge of CAD 0.54 per kilogram to global
exports of these goods in excess of the thresholds set out above for the remainder of
the dairy year.
(b) In a given dairy year, if global exports of infant formula from Canada exceed the
following thresholds:
Year Infant Formula Thresholds
1 13,333 MT
2 40,000 MT
then, Canada shall apply an export charge of CAD 4.25 per kilogram to global
exports of these goods in excess of the thresholds set out above for the remainder of
the dairy year.
9. With regard to the thresholds established in paragraph 8(a) and 8(b), after Year 2 each
threshold shall increase at a rate of 1.2 percent annually on a dairy year basis.
. . .

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/03%20Agriculture%20US-CA%20Annex%20clean.pdf

I'm not so sure if that this is a limitation/restriction but rather a requirement to add an "export charge" on quantities over the prescribed amounts. I won't pretend to analyze what this effectively means to the industry.

 :cheers:
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 22:26:18 by FJAG »
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #461 on: May 06, 2019, 10:18:10 »
ref: CTV.ca

I'm glad NAFTA remains in place, vice the agreement we were cornered into with USMCA.

Quote
Trump 'messed up the clock' on USMCA, current form 'dead': former U.S. ambassador
Published Sunday, May 5, 2019 7:00AM EDT

OTTAWA – U.S. President Donald Trump has "messed up the clock" on getting the renegotiated NAFTA deal ratified, and it may now die in its current form, says former U.S. Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman.

In an interview on CTV's Question Period, Heyman said that the deal in its current form is dead.

more at link.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #462 on: July 12, 2019, 17:17:46 »
The USMCA may be "dead", but it's sure taking its time dying.
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #463 on: August 06, 2020, 22:08:14 »
Looks like Trump's trade war is back on. The US is putting a 10% tariff on our aluminum, and Canada will be retaliating 'dollar for dollar'.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadian-press-newsalert-trump-slaps-tariffs-on-canadian-raw-aluminum

Once again, Trump supporters in Canada will find themselves awkwardly having to choose between supporting the US president, and supporting the Canadian industrial sector that he's attacking. It will be disingenuous for anyone to claim to do both.

This further highlights the inherently transactional nature of Trump's foreign policy.
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Offline Weinie

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #464 on: August 07, 2020, 06:50:43 »
Not unsurprising, in a neck to neck election run-up (if you believe the polls) to see POTUS pandering to his base. If he is re-elected in November, he can always roll them back, if he loses, it becomes Joe Biden's and the Dems problem. Win/not lose.
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Offline Rifleman62

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #465 on: August 07, 2020, 12:10:11 »
Quote
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/aluminum-facts/20510

In nature, aluminum does not exist in a pure state. The production of primary aluminum metal begins with bauxite ore, which is composed of hydrated aluminum oxide (40% to 60%) mixed with silica and iron oxide.

It takes approximately 4 to 5 tonnes of bauxite ore to produce 2 tonnes of alumina. In turn, it takes approximately 2 tonnes of alumina to produce 1 tonne of aluminum.

There are 10 primary aluminum smelters in Canada: one is located in Kitimat, British Columbia, and the other nine are in Quebec. There is also one alumina refinery, located in Saguenay, Quebec.

No bauxite is mined in Canada.

China is a large exporter of bauxite: Exporters - Rank   Country   Bauxite Production (in thousand tonnes), 2014
1   Australia   81,000
2   China   47,000
3   Brazil   32,500
4   Guinea      19,300
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #466 on: August 07, 2020, 20:10:45 »
Not unsurprising, in a neck to neck election run-up (if you believe the polls) to see POTUS pandering to his base. If he is re-elected in November, he can always roll them back, if he loses, it becomes Joe Biden's and the Dems problem. Win/not lose.

But this increases the price of his base's beer cans.  ;D

China is a large exporter of bauxite: Exporters - Rank   Country   Bauxite Production (in thousand tonnes), 2014
1   Australia   81,000
2   China   47,000
3   Brazil   32,500
4   Guinea      19,300

Quote
Bauxite mining in the United States produced an estimated 128,000 metric tonnes of bauxite in 2013.[1] Although the United States was an important source of bauxite in the early 20th century, it now supplies less than one percent of world bauxite production.

Bauxite is the only commercial ore of aluminium, and 96 percent of bauxite consumed in the US is used to produce aluminum (metallurgical grade).[2] However, since 1981, none of the bauxite mined in the US was used to make metallic aluminium. US bauxite is instead used for abrasives, high-temperature refractory materials, and as a high-strength proppant for hydraulic fracturing of oil and gas wells.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bauxite_mining_in_the_United_States

Quote
The US also imported 33 percent of the aluminum metal that was used in 2014. Of the imported aluminum, 63% came from Canada ...

The US used to be a much more important factor in the world primary aluminum market. As recently as 1981, the US produced 30% of the world's primary aluminum, and for many years up through 2000, the US was the world's largest producer of primary aluminum. In 2014, by contrast, the US ranked sixth in primary aluminum production, and provided only 3.5% of world production.

US production of primary aluminum peaked in 1980 at 4.64 million metric tons. Since then, US primary aluminum production has fallen by more than half, but secondary production has increased, making up much of the difference. In the 1950s and 1960s, primary production made up about 80% of the aluminum output. In 2014, primary production made up 32%, while secondary from new scrap made up 36% and secondary from old scrap made up 32% of US aluminum production.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminum_industry_in_the_United_States

One of the most significant costs in producing aluminum is electricity and Quebec has a major advantage there with the long term hydro contracts it established with Newfoundland and Labrador through Churchill Falls which will continue until 2041 at the fixed rates negotiated some 55 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churchill_Falls_Generating_Station

It's not really dumping per se. Just a really great economic input costs advantage that Quebec has.

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #467 on: August 07, 2020, 20:17:55 »
Trump supporters in Canada will find themselves awkwardly having to choose between supporting the US president, and supporting the Canadian industrial sector that he's attacking. It will be disingenuous for anyone to claim to do both.

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #468 on: August 07, 2020, 20:20:20 »
Just wondering when the last time a politician didn’t pander to their base was. Hmmm... nope, I got nothing.
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #469 on: August 07, 2020, 20:28:57 »
Just wondering when the last time a politician didn’t pander to their base was. Hmmm... nope, I got nothing.

I bet you the LPC manipulated Trump into doing these tariffs to take Canadians attention off the WE conflict of interest and corruption.
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #470 on: August 07, 2020, 21:02:59 »
Just wondering when the last time a politician didn%u2019t pander to their base was. Hmmm... nope, I got nothing.

How about when the current gov't announced the CERB, and then extended it twice. Hit across all political spectrums. I digress.

Hopefully, we are still talking Canada/US trade relations.

Canada, Europe, the ME, SA, China, and Russia are all (minor) pieces in the run up to the election. There will be proclamations.

The implications for Canada are minimal.



« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 07:50:35 by Weinie »
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #471 on: August 07, 2020, 21:27:20 »
One of the most significant costs in producing aluminum is electricity and Quebec has a major advantage there with the long term hydro contracts it established with Newfoundland and Labrador through Churchill Falls which will continue until 2041 at the fixed rates negotiated some 55 years ago.

 :cheers:

Actually, FJAG, while the Churchill Falls contract turned out (it wasn't planned that way as no one expected the economics of electricity to turn so lopsided when it was negotiated) to be a great deal for Quebec and Churchill Falls power plant is the second largest one in Hydro-Quebec's inventory, it is still just a small part of the Quebec Hydro-power advantage.

Hydro-Quebec can generate a bit over 46,000 MW of power, of which about 5500 are from Churchill, leaving a bit more than 40,000 from the other Quebec Hydro Dam. So Churchill is important but is only about 12% of the overall production. See: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/nrgsstmprfls/qc-eng.html

And that production of Quebec does not include non Hydro-Quebec generation - and around the Saguenay area, there is still lots of private generation. The City of Saguenay itself generates 18 MW independently of Hydro-Quebec ( https://promotion.saguenay.ca/en/choose-saguenay/nos-secteurs-cles/energy ).

In fact, Aluminium smelting in the Saguenay region goes back almost to the turn of the 20th century specifically because local hydro power generation was so cheap and easily harnessed there. It predates the construction of Churchill falls by more than 50 years. Here's an extract of the story of  Alcoa, at Arvida: https://www.citedelaluminium.ca/en/aluminumplant/ , but remember that Alcan (now Rio-Tinto) was in Saguenay even before and actually operates its own power plant (Shipshaw), which they updated again only few years back ( https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/rio-tinto-alcan-inaugurates-the-completion-of-the-shipshaw-powerhouse-project-in-saguenay-quebec-511171501.html ).

So the hydro-power advantage of Quebec is a whole lot more than just Churchill Falls.

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #472 on: August 07, 2020, 21:48:31 »
...
So the hydro-power advantage of Quebec is a whole lot more than just Churchill Falls.

:salute:
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #473 on: August 08, 2020, 01:20:12 »
Actually, FJAG, while the Churchill Falls contract turned out (it wasn't planned that way as no one expected the economics of electricity to turn so lopsided when it was negotiated) to be a great deal for Quebec and Churchill Falls power plant is the second largest one in Hydro-Quebec's inventory, it is still just a small part of the Quebec Hydro-power advantage.

Hydro-Quebec can generate a bit over 46,000 MW of power, of which about 5500 are from Churchill, leaving a bit more than 40,000 from the other Quebec Hydro Dam. So Churchill is important but is only about 12% of the overall production. See: https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/nrgsstmprfls/qc-eng.html

And that production of Quebec does not include non Hydro-Quebec generation - and around the Saguenay area, there is still lots of private generation. The City of Saguenay itself generates 18 MW independently of Hydro-Quebec ( https://promotion.saguenay.ca/en/choose-saguenay/nos-secteurs-cles/energy ).

In fact, Aluminium smelting in the Saguenay region goes back almost to the turn of the 20th century specifically because local hydro power generation was so cheap and easily harnessed there. It predates the construction of Churchill falls by more than 50 years. Here's an extract of the story of  Alcoa, at Arvida: https://www.citedelaluminium.ca/en/aluminumplant/ , but remember that Alcan (now Rio-Tinto) was in Saguenay even before and actually operates its own power plant (Shipshaw), which they updated again only few years back ( https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/rio-tinto-alcan-inaugurates-the-completion-of-the-shipshaw-powerhouse-project-in-saguenay-quebec-511171501.html ).

So the hydro-power advantage of Quebec is a whole lot more than just Churchill Falls.

Indeed, HQ doesn't even need Churchill Falls.  The La Grande River Hydro Complex is super impressive.  I have visited The Robert Bourassa Generating Station and it alone makes enough electricity to power the entire Island of Montreal.  Hydro Quebec has 10 other dams on that River alone and sells most of their electricity to New England and now Ontario, who due to very poor investments and failure to upgrade facilities, now have to buy electricity from Quebec at a considerable markup.

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #474 on: August 08, 2020, 12:09:14 »
Indeed, HQ doesn't even need Churchill Falls.  The La Grande River Hydro Complex is super impressive.  I have visited The Robert Bourassa Generating Station and it alone makes enough electricity to power the entire Island of Montreal.  Hydro Quebec has 10 other dams on that River alone and sells most of their electricity to New England and now Ontario, who due to very poor investments and failure to upgrade facilities, now have to buy electricity from Quebec at a considerable markup.

And when it overproduces hydro, it sells it at a loss to New York, especially very expensive wind turbine energy at a loss.  Thank you Wynne and the Liberals. :facepalm:

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-lost-up-to-1-2-billion-selling-clean-energy-at-a-loss-engineers

And to think, Ontario grew as the industrial power base of Canada in the middle of the last century primarily because of its cheap and abundant hydro power supply.

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