Author Topic: General Election: Oct 21, 2019  (Read 26859 times)

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #50 on: September 16, 2019, 09:59:01 »
Ah, World Socialists.

You can always count on their brand of crazy to brighten the day....
:nod:
#NDPNotQuiteSocialistEnough
There seems to be a lot of speculation about Commissioner Lucki being married to Morneau's cousin. Has anyone seen anything solid about this?
One Twitter post (attached) with no link included, being retweeted by non-fans of the RCMP & Team Red … #ALotOfPeopleAreSaying
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #51 on: September 16, 2019, 10:46:17 »
The man she is married to is a retired RCMP staff sgt.

Is he a blood relation to Morneau?  Other than what some guy posted on twitter  :dunno:

Are a spouse's cousins considered to be a potential conflict?  2nd cousins?  3rd? 4th?

I have a massive extended family with 2nd and 3rd cousins I don't even know.  I don't even know a good chunk of my spouses 1st cousins let alone the next ones removed. 
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #52 on: September 16, 2019, 11:59:56 »
The connection is tenuous at best. That being said, it's more about the narrative. As long as the "LPC in bed with SNC" story can be exploited, the more it will be.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #53 on: September 16, 2019, 12:05:06 »
The connection is tenuous at best. That being said, it's more about the narrative. As long as the "LPC in bed with SNC" story can be exploited, the more it will be.
VERY true - but in spite of what some people say, details also matter.  You can make that link pretty clearly & easily without making stuff up.
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Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #54 on: September 16, 2019, 17:00:18 »
Maybe, maybe not. Say what you want about Bernier, he can think on his feet, is (apparently) imumune to embarrassment and is the master of the quip. The pay off for Bernier (in terms of his base) is attacking Trudeau. He could end up making the PM look stupid, depending on the issue.

Now, I suppose, that could also hurt the CPC, if he does well enough that enough people decide to give him a second look. Or he could just make Scheer look reasonable and safe. Time will tell.

Fair points.  But I think that Bernier is banking on the conservative votes.  I don’t think he is really competing for the LPC or NDP vote share.  That means that Scheer will have to show he is the better choice for conservatives as opposed to the only choice.  Means less time on Trudeau at the debates and you can bet Bernier will be after Scheer on a variety of conservative issues. 
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #55 on: September 16, 2019, 17:49:59 »
Fair points.  But I think that Bernier is banking on the conservative votes.  I don’t think he is really competing for the LPC or NDP vote share.  That means that Scheer will have to show he is the better choice for conservatives as opposed to the only choice.  Means less time on Trudeau at the debates and you can bet Bernier will be after Scheer on a variety of conservative issues.

You and I mostly agree. Any votes Bernier gets come out of the CPC hide or out of folks who would not ever vote Liberal or NDP. Maybe some Blocqusties or even Greens (the Greens are a weird bunch and are all over the poltical map).

The roadmap for Bernier to make a splash and get fireworks is to go after Trudeau and not Scheer. Those will be the clips that get played on the news- not him and Scheer arguing about Dairy marketing boards.

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #56 on: September 16, 2019, 18:02:53 »
So bernier plays far right allowing scheer to play mid right taking votes from the libs and a conservative minority government is hatched...

Yeah i know, it wont happen. I can dream though.

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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #57 on: September 16, 2019, 18:07:49 »
Bernier never stuck me as serious.

Maybe he's on to something with his platform, though I've heard he has a habit of blowing stuff off.

Also heard even if he wins every seat or whatever he can, he won't have enough to form a government. "At best" he'll give us another 4 years of the honourable Prime Minister Trudeau playing dress up.

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #58 on: September 16, 2019, 19:03:17 »
Bernier was invited to the debate solely for his fireworks value. The press isn't interested in anything else. They want sound bites that play. The only way he gets airtime after the debate is to go after Trudeau.
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Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #59 on: September 16, 2019, 19:25:50 »
Bernier was invited to the debate solely for his fireworks value. The press isn't interested in anything else. They want sound bites that play. The only way he gets airtime after the debate is to go after Trudeau.

Suggesting that Bernier was invited for entertainment value may have been valid if the upcoming debate was, as in years (elections) past, sponsored and organized by the "Consortium" (the major TV media outlets combined).  However, this debate is organized by the Leaders’ Debates Commission which is a government body.  While the Commission, as a government body, may be open to criticism for bias, I have much respect for the Commissioner and would expect him to abide by the mandate and guidelines that he has been given.  The Commissioner, by the way, is David Johnston, the former Governor-General.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #60 on: September 16, 2019, 19:46:46 »
Apologies then. I thought this was another of the media led debates.
WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher,smarter, faster and better looking than most people.
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Zero tolerance is the politics of the lazy. All it requires is that you do nothing and ban everything.

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #61 on: September 16, 2019, 20:47:34 »
So bernier plays far right allowing scheer to play mid right taking votes from the libs and a conservative minority government is hatched...

Yeah i know, it wont happen. I can dream though.

Abdullah

Thing with that though is that Bernier *may* sap (in the original siege-engineering sense of the word) strength from the CPC, but that will serve not to bolster the LPC. It may redistribute votes; it will not redistribute seats in any way advantageous to the right. In the event of a CPC minority it offers no additional seats right of the liberals to prior then up- not that I personally think that’s terrible; I’ve made no secret of my opinion of Bernier’s Tantrum party. But for those who have ideological allegiance to the right, there is no real advantage, tactical or strategic, to Bernier gaining support.

“Most likely” COA is the PPC crash and burn and get no seats. “Most dangerous” is Bernier gets his seat and thus lots of airtime, and the CPC lose enough votes to turn enough ridings that it swings either the winner outright, or the majority/minority question for either LPC or CPC.

A vote for the PPC effectively is a vote for the LPC. That might not be an individual’s intent, but that’t The effect. For every shot the PPC fire at a Liberal point target, the CPC are in the beaten zone.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #62 on: September 16, 2019, 21:04:48 »
Thing with that though is that Bernier *may* sap (in the original siege-engineering sense of the word) strength from the CPC, but that will serve not to bolster the LPC. It may redistribute votes; it will not redistribute seats in any way advantageous to the right. In the event of a CPC minority it offers no additional seats right of the liberals to prior then up- not that I personally think that’s terrible; I’ve made no secret of my opinion of Bernier’s Tantrum party. But for those who have ideological allegiance to the right, there is no real advantage, tactical or strategic, to Bernier gaining support.

“Most likely” COA is the PPC crash and burn and get no seats. “Most dangerous” is Bernier gets his seat and thus lots of airtime, and the CPC lose enough votes to turn enough ridings that it swings either the winner outright, or the majority/minority question for either LPC or CPC.

A vote for the PPC effectively is a vote for the LPC. That might not be an individual’s intent, but that’t The effect. For every shot the PPC fire at a Liberal point target, the CPC are in the beaten zone.

I could see them getting some seats in QC. The CPC is still seen as an anglo party, the NDP is in freefall, the BQ has done nothing for sovereignty in a few decades, and some of the rhetoric against immigration is similar to what the CAQ rode into power on.

Got some flyers in the mail from 'Team Trudeau'; not sure that's a great call. For the already devoted, it's a waste, for the undecided it's making the Liberals a cult of personality, and that's where the Adm Norman, SNC and other issues will weigh against not just him, but the entire party. The PMO torpedoing Adm Norman's career and life by withholding evidence under the guise of cabinet confidence was the final straw for me personally, but kind of leaves a trash heap to choose from.

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #63 on: September 16, 2019, 21:35:12 »
Thing with that though is that Bernier *may* sap (in the original siege-engineering sense of the word) strength from the CPC, but that will serve not to bolster the LPC. It may redistribute votes; it will not redistribute seats in any way advantageous to the right. In the event of a CPC minority it offers no additional seats right of the liberals to prior then up- not that I personally think that’s terrible; I’ve made no secret of my opinion of Bernier’s Tantrum party. But for those who have ideological allegiance to the right, there is no real advantage, tactical or strategic, to Bernier gaining support.

“Most likely” COA is the PPC crash and burn and get no seats. “Most dangerous” is Bernier gets his seat and thus lots of airtime, and the CPC lose enough votes to turn enough ridings that it swings either the winner outright, or the majority/minority question for either LPC or CPC.

A vote for the PPC effectively is a vote for the LPC. That might not be an individual’s intent, but that’t The effect. For every shot the PPC fire at a Liberal point target, the CPC are in the beaten zone.

I agree with you 100%.

I have already resigned myself to another term of trudeau... just because i lack faith in the cpc right now.

But if it is what canadians want im happy.. sorta.

Offline Remius

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #64 on: September 16, 2019, 22:03:48 »
I agree with you 100%.

I have already resigned myself to another term of trudeau... just because i lack faith in the cpc right now.

But if it is what canadians want im happy.. sorta.

Hoping for an LPC minority that will be short lived.  With Scheer gone so that a better CPC leader can win the next majority. 

I just hope that that neither party gets a majority in this round.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #65 on: September 17, 2019, 12:30:42 »
Reading polls is one thing; predicting voter reactions is another.

If the PPC polls high enough for the election model forecasts to show a drop in CPC seats, will some of the NDP voters drop their LPC-as-ABC stance to return to the NDP or move to the Greens?  Will enough of those cause the forecasts for NDP seats (or Greens) to rise?  Will the LPC seat forecasts then drop enough to re-alarm the ABC voters?  Etc, etc.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #66 on: September 17, 2019, 13:39:41 »
The website calculatedpolitics.ca has team Trudeau ending just over majority territory now. Again, just an aggregation of polling data updated weekly.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2019, 13:42:22 by Cloud Cover »
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #67 on: September 17, 2019, 13:44:53 »
I agree with you 100%.

I have already resigned myself to another term of trudeau... just because i lack faith in the cpc right now.

But if it is what canadians want im happy.. sorta.

I’m in agreement too. Not happy - but we could do worse I suppose.
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Offline Brihard

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #68 on: September 18, 2019, 15:56:32 »
According to the Toronto Sun today, the alleged familial relationship between the RCMP commissioner and Bill Morneau is a complete fabrication. Not surprised, but nice to have it confirmed.

https://torontosun.com/news/national/fake-news-links-bill-morneau-to-rcmp-commish?fbclid=IwAR0YJFr53sCGGV_vArQ3q77fDTDeqVl5-UcjKBGBeE7upjmDxzwL1fSYn-s
Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #69 on: September 18, 2019, 17:31:32 »
I’m liking the way the media is dealing with all these rumours and allegations. I would like to see the one about Trudeau having drinks with Faith Goldy (and friends) dealt with.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #70 on: September 18, 2019, 19:25:15 »
Trudeau in "brownface" might provide some amusement for a while.
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Offline ballz

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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #71 on: September 18, 2019, 19:35:13 »
Pretty sad he might actually lose more votes because of that then committing a breach of trust to help SNC-Lavellin out of a criminal jam.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #72 on: September 18, 2019, 19:36:54 »
Trudeau in "brownface" might provide some amusement for a while.
Ooopsie ...
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #73 on: September 18, 2019, 19:40:23 »
And just for those keeping track, so far it looks like all of the #BoughtMedia /sarcasm are racing each other to cover this rather unflattering coverage of our PM. I haven't looked everywhere of course, but CBC, the Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail, the National Post, CTV, and Global all have it. So there's that.
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Re: General Election: Oct 21, 2019
« Reply #74 on: September 18, 2019, 20:37:07 »
PMJT has already fallen on his sword admitting it, apologizing, and saying he now sees that it was wrong. Basically exactly what he should have done, and as fast as he could do it. Conveniently for him, Scheer sort of painted himself into a corner on this with his approach to his own candidates’ last indiscretions, and he’s essentially shrugged and said ‘good enough for me’. The NDP will be the ones running hardest with this.

Stupid and embarrassing, with some damage potential. We shall see how it plays out. It certainly won’t play into the CPC’s hand to push too hard, although it will mute some criticism over some of their candidates.

A great night for the reporters though.

Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.