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Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis

Corruption is a poverty issue - and lack of a strong independent judicial system.

It's an ethical leadership issue too:

In this article, we empirically assess the role of ethical leadership in reducing corruption. We also examine whether the effectiveness of ethical leadership in curbing corruption depends on the quality of the reward system in public organizations. We focus on two related components of the reward system: the use of performance-based rewards and procedural fairness. Using data collected through a survey of 741 employees in 154 government and non-profit organizations in Pakistan, we find a negative association between ethical managerial leadership and reports of corruption. We also find that the use of performance-based rewards is associated with fewer incidences of corruption, and that the negative relationship between ethical leadership and corruption is stronger when employees report low levels of procedural fairness. We discuss the implications of these findings for research on and strategies for combating corruption in public organizations.

 
Well, that's good, because if it was it's clearly not working.
AFAIK non of the NATO forces in Ukraine have been there for deterrence - simply FID.
Having some NATO troops however is a tiny bit of deterrence - as any injuries to them would lead down to a road that I don't think anyone overly wants.
 
AFAIK non of the NATO forces in Ukraine have been there for deterrence - simply FID.
Having some NATO troops however is a tiny bit of deterrence - as any injuries to them would lead down to a road that I don't think anyone overly wants.
Do the Russians really give a damn?

Are the not trying to run American soldiers off the road in Syria, leading to injuries and potentially death of US personnel?
 
It's an ethical leadership issue too:

In this article, we empirically assess the role of ethical leadership in reducing corruption. We also examine whether the effectiveness of ethical leadership in curbing corruption depends on the quality of the reward system in public organizations. We focus on two related components of the reward system: the use of performance-based rewards and procedural fairness. Using data collected through a survey of 741 employees in 154 government and non-profit organizations in Pakistan, we find a negative association between ethical managerial leadership and reports of corruption. We also find that the use of performance-based rewards is associated with fewer incidences of corruption, and that the negative relationship between ethical leadership and corruption is stronger when employees report low levels of procedural fairness. We discuss the implications of these findings for research on and strategies for combating corruption in public organizations.

Thank you for posting this article. I will definitely read it over.

One thing to keep in mind is the fact that the Ukraine and Russia have never, ever had anything like the 'open society' (to use the term of the Karl Popper influenced organization, organized and funded by the George Soros Foundation) that we in Canada/US and most parts of Western Europe had. They went from the Czar, with near total control of the society/government to Lenin inspired Communism and then various forms of this under it former leaders, to Boris Yeltsin to its current 'Czar' Putin. 'Ethical leadership' never occurred there, its never had a chance to grow and flourish.

I remember from my days working in the CR in the mid 90's the challenges that were faced on a daily basis of 'doing the right thing for the right reasons.' So many 'ex-Czech's' came back from Canada and the US to help get them on their feet in terms of day to day running of the media, government departments, businesses, education facilities, etc. These were the people who were raised in the independent Czechoslovakia of the 1920-30's and the handful of years between 1945-48 or they were the children of these people. Russia never had this occur, the old leaders simply took off their party pins and picked up a Coca-Cola and started raping the country of all they could. There was virtually no purging of the old guard and in the case of Russia, there was no returning of ex-Pats on a large scale to help out.

When I was working in the CR there was a common phrase that was used by many to describe those between the ages of 35-60, they were openly called the 'Lost Generation' as it was believed that they would be 'lost' by the new open society that they were going to have to live in. They were considered 'lost' because they were used to the State doing virtually everything for them, decide where they'd work, decide where they'd live, in what sort of 'panelak' (Panelák - Wikipedia) they'd receive from the State or their employer, where they'd go for the holidays, what sort of food or clothes there would have access to, etc, etc. Those under 35 felt that they were young enough to be up for the challenges that they would be facing and those over 60 still remembered the stories told to them by their parents/grandparents on what life was life before Communism took over. Those people were the keepers of the 'old way of doing things' and they did their best to instill this sense of 'right or wrong' in their grandchildren in the new society. Want to quit your job and start up a new company, go and see your grandparents as they would tell you to do, you're young, take the risk, work hard everyday and mostly, they, the grandparents would be the ones helping out. I saw this and experienced this all the time. And it wasn't just in the CR, I saw it in Hungary and it Poland during my trips there.
 
Thank you for posting this article. I will definitely read it over.

One thing to keep in mind is the fact that the Ukraine and Russia have never, ever had anything like the 'open society' (to use the term of the Karl Popper influenced organization, organized and funded by the George Soros Foundation) that we in Canada/US and most parts of Western Europe had. They went from the Czar, with near total control of the society/government to Lenin inspired Communism and then various forms of this under it former leaders, to Boris Yeltsin to its current 'Czar' Putin. 'Ethical leadership' never occurred there, its never had a chance to grow and flourish.

I remember from my days working in the CR in the mid 90's the challenges that were faced on a daily basis of 'doing the right thing for the right reasons.' So many 'ex-Czech's' came back from Canada and the US to help get them on their feet in terms of day to day running of the media, government departments, businesses, education facilities, etc. These were the people who were raised in the independent Czechoslovakia of the 1920-30's and the handful of years between 1945-48 or they were the children of these people. Russia never had this occur, the old leaders simply took off their party pins and picked up a Coca-Cola and started raping the country of all they could. There was virtually no purging of the old guard and in the case of Russia, there was no returning of ex-Pats on a large scale to help out.

When I was working in the CR there was a common phrase that was used by many to describe those between the ages of 35-60, they were openly called the 'Lost Generation' as it was believed that they would be 'lost' by the new open society that they were going to have to live in. They were considered 'lost' because they were used to the State doing virtually everything for them, decide where they'd work, decide where they'd live, in what sort of 'panelak' (Panelák - Wikipedia) they'd receive from the State or their employer, where they'd go for the holidays, what sort of food or clothes there would have access to, etc, etc. Those under 35 felt that they were young enough to be up for the challenges that they would be facing and those over 60 still remembered the stories told to them by their parents/grandparents on what life was life before Communism took over. Those people were the keepers of the 'old way of doing things' and they did their best to instill this sense of 'right or wrong' in their grandchildren in the new society. Want to quit your job and start up a new company, go and see your grandparents as they would tell you to do, you're young, take the risk, work hard everyday and mostly, they, the grandparents would be the ones helping out. I saw this and experienced this all the time. And it wasn't just in the CR, I saw it in Hungary and it Poland during my trips there.

According to this index (which I know nothing about of course) the Ukraine is the 9th most corrupt country in the world while Romania is ranked 69th.

Ukraine:

Romania:

I'm no particular fan of either country but, with it's terrifying totalitarian history, how can Romania be so much better?

I mean, they're building most of the ferries for Canada's West Coast etc. It sees like they've managed a miracle trunaround in comparison to the Ukraine. Viz: News Release | BC Ferries' Sixth Island Class Ferry Departs Romania Bound for B.C.
 
According to this index (which I know nothing about of course) the Ukraine is the 9th most corrupt country in the world while Romania is ranked 69th.

Ukraine:

Romania:

I'm no particular fan of either country but, with it's terrifying totalitarian history, how can Romania be so much better?

I mean, they're building most of the ferries for Canada's West Coast etc. It sees like they've managed a miracle trunaround in comparison to the Ukraine. Viz: News Release | BC Ferries' Sixth Island Class Ferry Departs Romania Bound for B.C.
Simple, two letters - EU.

One is in the EU and one is not.
One has to follow their rules, regulations and guidelines and one does not.
One has access to massive amounts of EU funding and bureaucrats for skills sets they lack and the other does not.
‘PHARE’ is the answer to many of these questions -

This is some of what I personally worked on during my times in the CR.
 
I don't believe for one minute that Russia can take and hold Poland in 4 days. This has to be one of those BS simulation where Russia magically throws their whole army at Poland and leaves the rest of Russia undefended. The corruption in Ukraine is what makes Russians feel at home there, but lets not diminish the Russians influence there.
 
I don't believe for one minute that Russia can take and hold Poland in 4 days. This has to be one of those BS simulation where Russia magically throws their whole army at Poland and leaves the rest of Russia undefended. The corruption in Ukraine is what makes Russians feel at home there, but lets not diminish the Russians influence there.
Ask the Poles, it was their exercise.
 
Ask the Poles, it's was their exercise.
its a good way to beg for more money and it probably worked as it got them the M1A2v3 order. Just looking at tanks the Russians have about 1000 updated T-80's and T-90's and 2000 T-72's in various stages versus Polands 250 Leo2's and 600 T-72 which are to be replaced by 250 Abrams. But Russia can't bring all that force to bear on Poland or Ukraine without leaving huge expanses of its territory undefended so you can easily cut those numbers in half. If Russia wanted to take on Poland they better do it now before they have to face a force of 250 modernised Leo2 and 250 new Abrams and the 32 F-35's coming online to add to the 100 other fighter jets.
 
its a good way to beg for more money and it probably worked as it got them the M1A2v3 order. Just looking at tanks the Russians have about 1000 updated T-80's and T-90's and 2000 T-72's in various stages versus Polands 250 Leo2's and 600 T-72 which are to be replaced by 250 Abrams. But Russia can't bring all that force to bear on Poland or Ukraine without leaving huge expanses of its territory undefended so you can easily cut those numbers in half. If Russia wanted to take on Poland they better do it now before they have to face a force of 250 modernised Leo2 and 250 new Abrams and the 32 F-35's coming online to add to the 100 other fighter jets.
Good luck to the Russians trying to take and hold Poland. Won't even happen as they are part of NATO.

I'm sure a lot of you are aware of the Soviets taking parts of eastern Poland when they were buddy buddy with the Nazi back in September of 1939. But in case you don't know what occurred from November of 1939 until June of 1941, here are some snippets of information. The Poles have never forgotten (nor will they forgive).

  1. Soviet NKVD sent hundreds of thousands of people from eastern Poland to Siberia and other remote parts of the Soviet Union in four major waves of deportation between 1939 and 1941
  2. The NKVD killed 22,000 Polish military personnel and civilians in the Katyn massacre

There's a great book called 'Without Vodka: Adventures in Wartime Russia' (Amazon.com) written by a Polish-Canadian who was 16yrs old and in the Polish Reserves when the Soviets invaded his part of Poland. Its a great read and talks about his capture and deportation to the SU after trying to smuggle himself across the Rumanian border to try and make it to France. He was to write a second book about this adventures leaving the SU via Iran to join the Free Polish Army in late 1942 but sadly he died before that book could be written.
 
its a good way to beg for more money and it probably worked as it got them the M1A2v3 order.

It's really next level 3D chess to have a military exercise, and be defeated so badly you classify all the results due to surrendering after 5 days.
Just looking at tanks the Russians have about 1000 updated T-80's and T-90's and 2000 T-72's in various stages versus Polands 250 Leo2's and 600 T-72 which are to be replaced by 250 Abrams. But Russia can't bring all that force to bear on Poland or Ukraine without leaving huge expanses of its territory undefended so you can easily cut those numbers in half. If Russia wanted to take on Poland they better do it now before they have to face a force of 250 modernised Leo2 and 250 new Abrams and the 32 F-35's coming online to add to the 100 other fighter jets.
Unless Poland gets those assets before late January, early February, I think that's exactly what will happen.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not ragging on Poland. They have some ambitious plans with their military.
 
Russia going into Poland would be a Bridge to Far.
While Europe and the USA may not be willing to go to full fledged war for the Ukraine - Vlad trying to swallow Poland too, would demand a massive response.
 
Ask the Poles, it was their exercise.
This gives another view of the above.


Assumes that the Russians achieve near-total surprise, take out all the Baltic states at the sametime and come at Poland through Belarus.

There is also this - which talks extensively about the mis-information tactics of the Russians that are a constant wave against all countries along their border.



One thing to remember, what I've posted previously, the Russians rely overwhelmingly on railways for their movement/resupply. That's fine within Belarus, but the Poles converted ALL railines, except 1 single line running from Krakow to Brest, off the Russian gauge to the 'standard' gauge. Blow that line and the Russians have to rely on only trucks for all of the supply lines.
 
Russia going into Poland would be a Bridge to Far.
While Europe and the USA may not be willing to go to full fledged war for the Ukraine - Vlad trying to swallow Poland too, would demand a massive response.
I don't think Russia enters Poland.

But I would bet Russia kicks Poland put of Ukraine.
 
This gives another view of the above.


Assumes that the Russians achieve near-total surprise, take out all the Baltic states at the sametime and come at Poland through Belarus.

There is also this - which talks extensively about the mis-information tactics of the Russians that are a constant wave against all countries along their border.



One thing to remember, what I've posted previously, the Russians rely overwhelmingly on railways for their movement/resupply. That's fine within Belarus, but the Poles converted ALL railines, except 1 single line running from Krakow to Brest, off the Russian gauge to the 'standard' gauge. Blow that line and the Russians have to rely on only trucks for all of the supply lines.
I really don't think Poland can convert the lines in Ukraine to standard gauge before the Russians, assuming they are absorbing Ukraine wholesale and Poland gets involved, show up to Polish held Ukraine demanding they leave or else.
 
Unfortunately the link didn't actually contain any information on the simulation. I'll do some light digging to find it. But how about we run it in reverse and see how long it would take Poland/Ukraine/NATO to reach Moscow? Poland alone has half the tanks and one quarter the fighter jets of Russia. If you take the Apple smart phones out of the Russian fighter pilots hands how are they going to even generate the one sortie a day they could barely manage in Syria? The aggressor always has the advantage especially if the attack is a "surprise", the surprise aspect is the part that is concerning about Russia's large ongoing mobilization exercises as they normalise the troop buildups and movements and acclimatize everyone and lull everyone into a false sense of security.
 
Unfortunately the link didn't actually contain any information on the simulation. I'll do some light digging to find it.
Poland buried a lot of the reports for the ex, so best of luck there.
But how about we run it in reverse and see how long it would take Poland/Ukraine/NATO to reach Moscow? Poland alone has half the tanks and one quarter the fighter jets of Russia.
Poland never makes it.

Ukraine never makes it.

NATO never tries it.

There, simulation over.
If you take the Apple smart phones out of the Russian fighter pilots hands how are they going to even generate the one sortie a day they could barely manage in Syria?
GLONASS, no?
The aggressor always has the advantage especially if the attack is a "surprise", the surprise aspect is the part that is concerning about Russia's large ongoing mobilization exercises as they normalise the troop buildups and movements and acclimatize everyone and lull everyone into a false sense of security.
I don't even know why we are considering this a surprise.

I bet dollars to donuts this is coming around the Olympics.

As for any Polish, Russian flare up in Ukraine assuming Ukraine falls, again, it likely won't be a surprise. Russia is going to show up in Polish occupied Ukraine with overwhelming force and a deadline for Poland to bug off. Washington and Moscow talk, Washington talks to Warsaw, Poland leaves.
 
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